Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Duane Dibbley

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1108006205899923456

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1107995150758887424

robinph

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Whoever wins the election has a mandate from the people to implement their policy and their MPS should row in behind the leader after the GE.

That would be like claiming that 52% voting leave was a clear decision on the direction the country should then take, or May winning the last election despite losing it and Corbyn winning despite losing were clear indications of the will of the people at that point. When neither party has a clear idea of what their policy is, or even how to communicate that to the population and that some areas will forever be coloured red/ blue on the map despite whatever else happens it really wouldn't tell you anything useful at all.

A general election is a monumentally stupid way of trying to figure out what the will of the people is in some single topic for the country. That doesn't mean they won't call a general election obviously.

ToBeFrank123

robinph wrote: »

That would be like claiming that 52% voting leave was a clear decision on the direction the country should then take, or May winning the last election despite losing it and Corbyn winning despite losing were clear indications of the will of the people at that point. When neither party has a clear idea of what their policy is, or even how to communicate that to the population and that some areas will forever be coloured red/ blue on the map despite whatever else happens it really wouldn't tell you anything useful at all.

A general election is a monumentally stupid way of trying to figure out what the will of the people is in some single topic for the country. That doesn't mean they won't call a general election obviously.

There aren't the numbers for May to support her deal in the current parliament and she's wasting her time trying to force the DUP onside. So it would be monumentally stupid to continue to try to force the same deal on the same MPs.

I don't think you get that the general UK public are sick and tired of Brexit and want a deal or at least some sort of finality to it.

May is never going to opt for a second referendum, ever. I thought the assurances she got from Europe were enough to see the WA deal over the line, but clearly they weren't. The EU have said those were the final negotiations.

So where does she go from here? Keep flogging a dead deal to the same MPs? Or go to the people in a GE? Seeing as she won't go to them with a second ref. Her options have narrowed if she wants to get her deal over the line and she seems to think its the only deal in town.

Infini

All this though is putting the cart before the horse. Simple fact is Brexit happens next week, by that time the UK either will crash out by virtue of political incompetence or they're forced to abandon Brexit in the face of economic catastrophe. The EU likely wont and honestly shouldnt give any extention at this point unless theres a clear plan and reason otherwise its best to end this farce one way or another. They need to decide NOW in the UK and act not waste more time.

CelticRambler

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

There aren't the numbers for May to support her deal in the current parliament and she's wasting her time trying to force the DUP onside. So it would be monumentally stupid to continue to try to force the same deal on the same MPs.

Theresa May's performance since taking office indicates that "monumentally stupid" is one of her favourite decision-making strategies.

Zubeneschamali

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I don't think you get that the general UK public are sick and tired of Brexit and want a deal or at least some sort of finality to it.

Bad news for the general UK public - they are going to hear about nothing but Brexit for many, many years no matter what happens.

If Brexit is cancelled, the Brexiteers will moan about it for 40 years at least.

If May's deal is ratified, it is just the first and easiest step in a process, it will be non-stop Brexit Trade Talks news for 5 years at least.

If No Deal crashout happens, the mutants surviving in the wasteland of the former UK will have a whole religion based on Brexit and waiting for the Chosen One to lead them back to the EU.

RickBlaine

I get the sense that the UK public at large are on Bercow's side. Whatever side of the Brexit debate people are on, they are completely sick of it at this stage and Bercow's decision is congruent with that.

The way some of the press (and indeed No 10) are behaving, you'd swear Bercow has blocked the first vote nevermind the third one.

As for No 10 claiming to be caught off guard, that is complete BS. I was aware his decision on the matter was forthcoming and was keeping an eye on the news since last week expecting his statement. And I don't even live in the UK.

And the BBC sending someone to follow him into work is a new low for them. There are official channels that the press can go through and for the government funded broadcaster to instead use gutter press tabloid tactics is disgraceful.

My understanding is that Bercow has simply followed the rules (after a Labour question seeking clarification) and would have required him to break or bend them in order to allow a third vote. Imagine the uproar if Bercow instead actually broke a rule while deciding not to allow a third vote.

But the media likes a scapegoat and today Bercow will play that role. It is just a shame (but not surprising) that No 10 is also vilifying him just like the tabloids.

Strazdas

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Bad news for the general UK public - they are going to hear about nothing but Brexit for many, many years no matter what happens.

If Brexit is cancelled, the Brexiteers will moan about it for 40 years at least.

If May's deal is ratified, it is just the first and easiest step in a process, it will be non-stop Brexit Trade Talks news for 5 years at least.

If No Deal crashout happens, the mutants surviving in the wasteland of the former UK will have a whole religion based on Brexit and waiting for the Chosen One to lead them back to the EU.

Indeed, something so divisive and destabilising is going to impact on Britain for many years to come.

I get the impression Leave voters thought Brexit would be done and dusted within two years and forgotten about the day after the UK leaves (that's if they did any "thinking" on the subject at all of course).

First Up

Strazdas wrote:

I get the impression Leave voters thought Brexit would be done and dusted within two years and forgotten about the day after the UK leaves (that's if they did any "thinking" on the subject at all of course).

Yes, its amusing to hear them talk about "getting it over with" as if it was a tooth extraction or something, after which things will get back to "normal". They don't seem to understand that its only the start.

RickBlaine

Did the people criticizing Bercow actually read / listen to his whole speech yesterday and the follow up questions? He basically said he is not prepared to break the rules but said in one of the follow up questions that parliament has the power to vote to change the rules if it sees fit. In what way is that a "constitutional crisis" as some have been claiming. Crazy delusional stuff!

trashcan

RickBlaine wrote: »

Did the people criticizing Bercow actually read / listen to his whole speech yesterday and the follow up questions? He basically said he is not prepared to break the rules but said in one of the follow up questions that parliament has the power to vote to change the rules if it sees fit. In what way is that a "constitutional crisis" as some have been claiming. Crazy delusional stuff!

I listened to his speech, and it was clear, cogent and eminently sensible. It wasn't partisan either, he was simply applying the rules properly, you know, doing his job ! Quite out of character for a UK politician in these times.

Mr.Wemmick

This is so infuriating. The Theresa May supporting media and those at No.10 all need to grow the hell up.

The only adult in the room is Bercow. And they want to throw him out so they can continue to play silly buggers?

VinLieger

I do love the cognitive dissonance of those who are complaining about Bercow not allowing MV3 are people who voted against it the previous 2 times.

Infini

VinLieger wrote: »

I do love the cognitive dissonance of those who are complaining about Bercow not allowing MV3 are people who voted against it the previous 2 times.

Pig Ignorant Stupidy amplified by a toxic amount of adversarial arrogance is all the Brexiteers are about in that place. That and toxic rags that are unfit to even call themselves reporters.

Pride before the fall is more applicable than ever to this HoC and UK Government these days.

Anteayer

They don't listen to anything anymore. It's just all weird heckling gutteral noises and a parliamentary system that looks and sounds like something from medieval times.

I'm baffled by the whole thing at this stage.
A topple out by incompetence still looks likely.

Joe_ Public

Hard to figure out the lie of the land in all this but we still really need Mays deal to get through the hoc, don’t we? With the added kicker of it then being put before the people. A second referendum along any other lines would surely be very risky, if not unworkable. As for seeing brexit just somehow go away as a third option, how likely is that in actuality?

Inquitus

Personally I don't think the EU should allow an extension til June 30th, it should be either to the end of the next EU budget cycle at the end of 2020, or nothing. The last thing we want to see, is May taking her deal down to the wire again, especially if the UK has not hosted EU elections, as that represents a clear cliff edge that cannot be adjusted as the election ship will have sailed in late May.

road_high

Inquitus wrote: »

Personally I don't think the EU should allow an extension til June 30th, it should be either to the end of the next EU budget cycle at the end of 2020, or nothing. The last thing we want to see, is May taking her deal down to the wire again, especially if the UK has not hosted EU elections, as that represents a clear cliff edge that cannot be adjusted as the election ship will have sailed in late May.

I think a short three month extension will solve nothing either- just more of the same guff for another few months. Those that "want" Brexit aren't really willing to step forward and deliver the pain and chaos it'll inevitably bring but are happy sniping away on the sidelines. A bit like SF and PBP here vs the govt.

Inquitus

road_high wrote: »

I think a short three month extension will solve nothing either- just more of the same guff for another few months. Those that "want" Brexit aren't really willing to step forward and deliver the pain and chaos it'll inevitably bring but are happy sniping away on the sidelines. A bit like SF and PBP here vs the govt.

I am more concerned it narrows the options somewhat if the UK don't host elections then it is May's Deal or No Deal with a 30th June Deadline that seemingly cannot be avoided. It gives too much power to the disfunctional commons and rules out softer outcomes. I also don't see how this is of any benefit to the EU, it kicks the can down a dead end and heightens the risks of a disasterous outcome.

Leroy42

What benefit would the EU see in giving any extension, be it longer (21 months) or short? I can almost see the benefit in a long extension, it is already built into the transition period but with the real risk that the UK will send some very anti-EU MEPs should they be forced to partake in the elections.

A short-term extension appears to give no advantage, save for a few extra weeks to prepare (which whilst always welcome I don't see having that much of an effect).

Surely they can't really believe that the UK will simply forget about Brexit in either case? Or suddenly the political parties will come around to trying to avoid Brexit, rather than the current "will of the people". Corbyn yesterday, on Sky News, would not state what way he would vote in any 2nd Ref, so it is very likely that he would campaign for Leave again.

Irishmale0399

Inquitus wrote: »

Personally I don't think the EU should allow an extension til June 30th, it should be either to the end of the next EU budget cycle at the end of 2020, or nothing. The last thing we want to see, is May taking her deal down to the wire again, especially if the UK has not hosted EU elections, as that represents a clear cliff edge that cannot be adjusted as the election ship will have sailed in late May.

Why should we offer them that option at this moment in time....3 options should be very simple....


1. Accept the WA and leave at the end of the month



2. Hard Brexit at the end of the month


3. Revoke A50 and get back to being a full member of the EU


The have had enough time to work things out and havent done it yet. What tells us they will do it by 2020??? They are like kids in a sweet shop....want everything but dont want to give anything.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

What benefit would the EU see in giving any extension, be it longer (21 months) or short? I can almost see the benefit in a long extension, it is already built into the transition period but with the real risk that the UK will send some very anti-EU MEPs should they be forced to partake in the elections.

A short-term extension appears to give no advantage, save for a few extra weeks to prepare (which whilst always welcome I don't see having that much of an effect).

Surely they can't really believe that the UK will simply forget about Brexit in either case? Or suddenly the political parties will come around to trying to avoid Brexit, rather than the current "will of the people". Corbyn yesterday, on Sky News, would not state what way he would vote in any 2nd Ref, so it is very likely that he would campaign for Leave again.

The UK is an important trading partner. The EU has and will try to find an amicable settlement that suits both upto the point where it would risk compromising on its core principles.

A long extension would be a nice bit of breathing space. It would be a massive help to people like myself who are in limbo though somewhat by choice due to our possession of EU Passports.

It would also give substantially more time to dealing with more complex issues like the Irish border.

Ultimately though, EU countries are going to want a reason to sanction such an extension. The Conservatives currently lack sufficient Political poise and grace to win their backing in my opinion.

ToBeFrank123

British media and politicians calling Bercow's intervention "undemocratic". When he is the one upholding democracy, proper democracy, not a democracy where votes can be repeated over and over until the right result is achieved. And MPs are beaten into submission with threats.

Hurrache

There's a hash tag trending at the moment, #HannanIrishHistory and for a few moments I couldn't figure out what it was about, then it clicked that it's taking the piss out of Daniel Hannan and his somewhat interesting take on Irish history, with such gems that FF won every Irish election until Bertie was forced out by the EU around the time of Lisbon. He doubled down when challenged saying "I managed a double first in Modern History from Oxford" but he's being torn asunder.

This is his original story and twitter thread
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1107687206045536258

This is the hashtag
https://twitter.com/hashtag/hannanirishhistory?f=tweets&vertical=default&src=tren

Laois_Man

Leroy42 wrote: »

What benefit would the EU see in giving any extension, be it longer (21 months) or short?

There's absolutely no benefit to a 3 month extension. A 21 month extension would see a new PM in place for at least a year before the new Brexit deadline. Definitely! The EU clearly have no respect for May. Whether that be a new PM resulting from a Tory leadership contest or a general election, we can't be sure. I think most people other than the MP's whose seats would be in danger want a general election and hopefully the elimination of the DUP influence.
Unfortunately, turkey's don't vote for Christmas though, so I can't see it happening!

There needs to be a new WA without the red lines - which won't happen while May is PM and probably won't happen while any other Tory is PM either. So it's jammed.

The only real option to break the jam is a second referendum but it will bring chaos is it's a straight choice between 'Remain' and May's deal. There has to be a "Hard Brexit" or "May's Deal" choice - framed as a second count in such a way as it doesn't split the 'leave' vote.

RickBlaine

Asking the public to leave the EU in the first place was deeply unwise and dangerous.
Giving the public the option of a hard brexit is equally so.

A significant portion of them simply don't understand the complexities and implications of a hard Brexit. A second ref should be between remain and whatever WA / deal has been negotiated.

mrbrianj

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

British media and politicians calling Bercow's intervention "undemocratic". When he is the one upholding democracy, proper democracy, not a democracy where votes can be repeated over and over until the right result is achieved. And MPs are beaten into submission with threats.

Yes, not too many now slagging us over having 2 goes at Lisbon!

From afar, it seems like Bercow is simply saying "cop on lads". In any other situation a government getting defeated so badly would bring them down

Panrich

It looks like the EU might be turning the screw regarding the extension. Tough talk from Barnier that there needs to be a clear plan that makes extension worthwhile. I don't get the impression that such a plan exists or will be forthcoming from the UK.

Irishmale0399

Panrich wrote: »

It looks like the EU might be turning the screw regarding the extension. Tough talk from Barnier that there needs to be a clear plan that makes extension worthwhile. I don't get the impression that such a plan exists or will be forthcoming from the UK.

They have 10 days....tick tock...

road_high

Panrich wrote: »

It looks like the EU might be turning the screw regarding the extension. Tough talk from Barnier that there needs to be a clear plan that makes extension worthwhile. I don't get the impression that such a plan exists or will be forthcoming from the UK.

The EU hold all the cards- May is the one going begging for an extension this week to them. If not the UK crashes out on devastating trade terms. I’m hearing less of the “no deal will be great” non sense that had being doing the rounds for the past 6 months in particular.