Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Anteayer

Panrich wrote: »

It looks like the EU might be turning the screw regarding the extension. Tough talk from Barnier that there needs to be a clear plan that makes extension worthwhile. I don't get the impression that such a plan exists or will be forthcoming from the UK.

Well from a European (including Irish) point of view, this last couple of years have been chaos. We need some sense of planning and logical strategy. Simply extending the process for a further two years without any plan doesn't achieve anything other than more room for more chaos.

This mess is not cost-free. It's causing huge pressure and uncertainty for businesses and individuals and it's also causing potential issues with political instability around some parts of the EU too.

A major reality check is needed. This crazy cannot just keep going on and I think we'd be doing nobody any favours by facilitating it too easily.

Seth Brundle

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

They have 10 days....tick tock...

Yes but apparently the EU always caves in at the last minute so the UK don't actually need to do anything.

Joe_ Public

RickBlaine wrote: »

Asking the public to leave the EU in the first place was deeply unwise and dangerous.
Giving the public the option of a hard brexit is equally so.

A significant portion of them simply don't understand the complexities and implications of a hard Brexit. A second ref should be between remain and whatever WA / deal has been negotiated.

That’s my current thinking on it too. It’s not in itself straightforward but nothing is. It means Mays deal getting through the house somehow.

Professor Moriarty

The Elysee Palace is saying that Britain will not get an extension unless there is a credible plan that has the backing of parliament. The patience of Les Bleus is running out.

Irishmale0399

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Yes but apparently the EU always caves in at the last minute so the UK don't actually need to do anything.

Time will tell.....then again the UK has so much to offer the EU that the EU cannot cope without......:rolleyes:

ancapailldorcha

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

They have 10 days....tick tock...

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Time will tell.....then again the UK has so much to offer the EU that the EU cannot cope without......:rolleyes:

Enough of the one-liners please.

Professor Moriarty

The Telegraph has an op-ed article defending Brexit and blaming the EU elite for thwarting the will of the people. Written by Donald Trump Jr. I didn't think they could sink so low but I was wrong.

Anteayer

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The Elysee Palace is saying that Britain will not get an extension unless there is a credible plan that has the backing of parliament. The patience of Les Bleus is running out.

I think a lot of commentators are not understanding that the Tories, UKIP and the DUP are being compared to Marine Le Pen's party and similar on the continent. Macron absolutely needs Brexit to end, well ahead of the next French presidential and legislative elections which will be in 2022.

If Brexit is still bubbling away by then, it creates a huge platform for Le Pen to take the presidency based on similar policies that would seek to take France in a more UKIPy direction.

I would suspect Macron's patience with Brexit ended when the withdrawal agreement was shot down. It's going to end one way or the other on March 29th.

The UK media seem to be absolutely focused on Westminster and fail to comprehend that there are 27 other countries being impacted by the decisions and who have a huge say in the response to them.

I would suspect what we'll see is a crash out and some kind of emergency measures to prevent the absolute worst of the economic implications happening, but it will still be a total mess and maybe in a couple of terms of UK government, you might see a change of plan and reapplication for the EU or at least EEA membership.

Duane Dibbley

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The Elysee Palace is saying that Britain will not get an extension unless there is a credible plan that has the backing of parliament. The patience of Les Bleus is running out.

They are right aswell.

The UK Parliament are causing a stand still in the EU.

RickBlaine

When is the EU27 making the decision on the possible extension. Will it be at this week's summit or later?

Anteayer

RickBlaine wrote: »

When is the EU27 making the decision on the possible extension. Will it be at this week's summit or later?

Either this week, or there'll be a quick special summit. I don't think they can really let this one drag on though as there will have to be clarity ahead of 29 March.

Inquitus

So what do people reckon on these 2 questions:

1) What will Theresa May ask for?
Short Extension (30th June) / Long Extension (18month+) / a mix of the 2 depending on an MV3 being held and its result.

2) What will the EU offer her?
Short Extension (30th June) / Long Extension (18month+) / Both

Silent Running

There are 10 calendar days until the deadline. How many days is the house sitting in that time though?

I don't think there is time to come up with anything constructive to persuade the EU to grant an extension. The UK will only get one if the EU are feeling particularly benevolent. I get that the UK are a large trading partner, but at some stage the benefits of having her around are outweighed by the chaos she brings.

Having a belligerent UK back in the EU could cause much grinding of gears in the EU parliament when it really needs to be running like a (non EU) Swiss clock.

Much better to clean house now and deal with the fallout, IMHO.

Strazdas

RickBlaine wrote: »

When is the EU27 making the decision on the possible extension. Will it be at this week's summit or later?

There is no particular impending deadline : they don't have to announce at the summit what their decision is......they could leave it for several days and well into next week at least

Inquitus

Strazdas wrote: »

There is no particular impending deadline : they don't have to announce at the summit what their decision is......they could leave it for several days and well into next week at least

The UK Parliament will need a few days to pass required laws etc. to change the Brexit Date and the like, given the recent narrowness of results and lack of a clear vision, this could take a number of sessions you'd think? I would imagine May will want to be back with something to offer for Monday of next week, the 25th March, to try and get whatever she dreams up through the House?

Anteayer

Anyone know what the exact EU legislative mechanics of extending Article 50 are?

Does the council need unanimity or can it be done by QMV?

An Ciarraioch

Anteayer wrote: »

Anyone know what the exact EU legislative mechanics of extending Article 50 are?

Does the council need unanimity or can it be done by QMV?

No - all 27 governments must agree.

Laois_Man

Strazdas wrote: »

There is no particular impending deadline : they don't have to announce at the summit what their decision is......they could leave it for several days and well into next week at least

I don't think it will take long to come to a decision. They will receive an extension request from May with no real plan of action and it will be blown out of the water very quickly - to give her time to come back with a coherent plan!

Anteayer

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

No - all 27 governments must agree.

Ah, I see the memo :

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-17-648_en.htm

When does the United Kingdom cease to be a member of the European Union?
The EU Treaties cease to apply to the United Kingdom from the date of entry into force of the agreement, or within 2 years of the notification of withdrawal, in case of no agreement. The Council may decide to extend that period by unanimity...

What happens if no agreement is reached?
The EU Treaties simply cease to apply to the UK two years after notification.

RickBlaine

Here's a question (the answer to which is probably complete speculation at this point), if the EU27 does not grant an extension, would the government not be under huge pressure to revoke article 50 given that Parliament has already voted against a no deal exit?

Anteayer

RickBlaine wrote: »

Here's a question (the answer to which is probably complete speculation at this point), if the EU27 does not grant an extension, would the government not be under huge pressure to revoke article 50 given that Parliament has already voted against a no deal exit?

Probably. They can withdraw it up until 23:59 CET on 29 March or 22:59 Imperial Brexit Time.

I don't know that they'd be able to organise themselves to actually do it though. It's more likely they'll end up having an argument about some irrelevancy.

Inquitus

RickBlaine wrote: »

Here's a question (the answer to which is probably complete speculation at this point), if the EU27 does not grant an extension, would the government not be under huge pressure to revoke article 50 given that Parliament has already voted against a no deal exit?

It would be one way out of the situation, there is a lack of clarity around whether May can do that unilaterally or it has to pass a vote in the commons, from my reading it seems the latter is more likely.

Sierra Oscar

road_high wrote: »

Two year extension will definitely mean the UK will have to partake in EU elections? That’ll all have to be decided very soon

As far as I can tell that will have to happen regardless of the length of the extension so long as the extension goes beyond the 2nd of July.

The 9th session of the European Parliament is due to open on the 2nd of July. Legally speaking under the standing orders of the European Parliament the parliament itself has to be made up of representatives of every European Member state. If the UK do not return MEP's then parliament itself is not legally constituted. Any laws that it attempts to pass would be null and void.

This is a real headache for the EU as much as it is for the UK. It's why a long extension in many ways simply is not in the EU's interest. If the UK returns MEP's then they will be involved in forming parliamentary groupings, drafting budgets and steering the direction of the Commission / EU as a whole. Why would you give a country that is hostile to your organisation a major say over the future direction of your organisation? Major issue.

Inquitus

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

As far as I can tell that will have to happen regardless of the length of the extension so long as the extension goes beyond the 2nd of July.

The 9th session of the European Parliament is due to open on the 2nd of July. Legally speaking under the standing orders of the European Parliament the parliament itself has to be made up of representatives of every European Member state. If the UK do not return MEP's then parliament itself is not legally constituted. Any laws that it attempts to pass would be null and void.

Yep, that's why I think a short extension is very dangerous, it allows all this to be kicked down the road a bit further, but once the European Elections have taken place without the UK, then you are in a real cliff edge situation with no remedy. It would certainly end up May's Deal or No Deal with no other options possible.

Roger_007

Inquitus wrote: »

Yep, that's why I think a short extension is very dangerous, it allows all this to be kicked down the road a bit further, but once the European Elections have taken place without the UK, then you are in a real cliff edge situation with no remedy. It would certainly end up May's Deal or No Deal with no other options possible.

If the UK are getting a long(ish) extension they will probably have to take part in the EU election. If the UK have to have an election for MEPs it will be the most surreal election ever. It will be like an extended episode of Monty Python.

Inquitus

Roger_007 wrote: »

If the UK are getting a long(ish) extension they will probably have to take part in the EU election. If the UK have to have an election for MEPs it will be the most surreal election ever. It will be like an extended episode of Monty Python.

Indeed, it would probably give some interesting outcomes too! Personally I think any extension needs to be long and needs to include the UK running European elections in late May along with the rest of us.

Igotadose

Inquitus wrote: »

Indeed, it would probably give some interesting outcomes too! Personally I think any extension needs to be long and needs to include the UK running European elections in late May along with the rest of us.

All sorts of rumours out there as to who might end up as UK MEP's - Farage, Yaxley-whateverhisnameis, ... Might make for interesting times at the EU Parliament.

tuxy

Igotadose wrote: »

All sorts of rumours out there as to who might end up as UK MEP's - Farage, Yaxley-whateverhisnameis, ... Might make for interesting times at the EU Parliament.

I think you mean frustrating, Farage doesn't show up very often to the EU parliament but when he does he is only there to cause disruption. UKIP MEPs try to turn the EU parliament into something like the HOC by shouting and screaming.

Inquitus

Igotadose wrote: »

All sorts of rumours out there as to who might end up as UK MEP's - Farage, Yaxley-whateverhisnameis, ... Might make for interesting times at the EU Parliament.

I guess I'd expect a slew of Remainers and a slew of Arch-Brexiteers to win depending on the constituency and its leanings. It would probably be 50/50 much like the original referendum, with both sides galvanised to vote.

tuxy

Inquitus wrote: »

Indeed, it would probably give some interesting outcomes too! Personally I think any extension needs to be long and needs to include the UK running European elections in late May along with the rest of us.

Has it been decided that they can leave current MEPs in place if they want to?
And if not won't they need MEP elections?