Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Inquitus

Inquitus wrote: »

I guess I'd expect a slew of Remainers and a slew of Arch-Brexiteers to win depending on the constituency and its leanings. It would probably be 50/50 much like the original referendum, with both sides galvanised to vote.

It will be even more "interesting" to see how Eurosceptic from other countries play their hand in the elections.
It would be easy to demonstrate to the voters the EU's unyielding attitude towards the UK leaving and could get a lot of votes from their own countries.
There are several countries that are very Eurosceptic under the surface, Italy for example.

Zubeneschamali

I first heard the 21 month figure for an extension from the EU side. I wouldn't be surprised if they reject a June extension (pointless with no plan) and say the only extension on offer is the 21 month one including Euro elections. This gives time for May to be sent home to start again from scratch, and for lots more business to decide to exit Britain in an orderly manner.

ballsymchugh

tuxy wrote: »

I think you mean frustrating, Farage doesn't show up very often to the EU parliament but when he does he is only there to cause disruption. UKIP MEPs try to turn the EU parliament into something like the HOC by shouting and screaming.

Farage isn't a member of any party at the moment, and given that the UK elect MEPs on a list system, unless he forms something pretty fast, or UKIP take him back in, he probably won't be back.
there will be a few complete nutjobs though, UKIP have absorbed a few 'filthy articles' since the referendum

Infini

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The Elysee Palace is saying that Britain will not get an extension unless there is a credible plan that has the backing of parliament. The patience of Les Bleus is running out.

I'm being honest the French are absolutely right on this. Enough games, enough bluster, enough shenanigans. It should also be no small irony that it was De Gaulle that blocked the British from joining up to the 1970's so it would also be no small irony if they crashed out because the French decided "non".

Time's up at this point, the British are effectively out of road and political game's aren't going to fly, I'm honestly expecting that the HoC will be either given the choice of abandoning Brexit and take the flak by revoking A50 or effectively crashing out and that's what's going to end this. If there's one thing the EU can do at this point it's simply to say strait to their faces to decide once and for all are they in or out. This is the endgame to this whole farce and they have to decide already.

Roger_007 wrote: »

If the UK are getting a long(ish) extension they will probably have to take part in the EU election. If the UK have to have an election for MEPs it will be the most surreal election ever. It will be like an extended episode of Monty Python.

Way thing's are going and the more the HoC and May's government act the bollock's the less likely there's going to be any extension at this point, I honestly think with all that's happening it's going to be down to Abandon Brexit or Crash Out as a choice as they simply have no other viable options left since they've rejected the WA twice now. It's all or nothing. They'll be a huge amount of whinging and whining from Brexiteers and the toxic rags of course but honestly this pales in comparison to people essentially going hungry for food outside the local Tesco or Sainsburies as supply lines fail.

Capt'n Midnight

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Don’t know if I’m being slightly facetious or not but when i hear brexiteers going on about “the 17.4m”, as Owen Patterson has mentioned at least 5 times on bbc just now, i can’t help wondering how many of those are actually dead now. It’s just a phrase that annoys me either way, we’ve moved so far on from that now.

Tory voters are dying at 2% a year. So roughly one million would have died by now. Labour voting OAP's probably don't live as long.

Add in the teenagers who can vote now but factor in how few of them will vote and Remain would win today if every single person voted the exact same way they did last time.


And it was known at the time that the margin was made by people who wouldn't be around to live with the consequences.

CBA doing the maths again but a 21 month extension would probably take out over half a million more OAP's and add about the same number of voting teenagers, if they can get a good register to vote campaign going.

Spanish Eyes

Infini wrote: »

I'm being honest the French are absolutely right on this. Enough games, enough bluster, enough shenanigans. It should also be no small irony that it was De Gaulle that blocked the British from joining up to the 1970's so it would also be no small irony if they crashed out because the French decided "non".

Time's up at this point, the British are effectively out of road and political game's aren't going to fly, I'm honestly expecting that the HoC will be either given the choice of abandoning Brexit and take the flak by revoking A50 or effectively crashing out and that's what's going to end this. If there's one thing the EU can do at this point it's simply to say strait to their faces to decide once and for all are they in or out. This is the endgame to this whole farce and they have to decide already.



Way thing's are going and the more the HoC and May's government act the bollock's the less likely there's going to be any extension at this point, I honestly think with all that's happening it's going to be down to Abandon Brexit or Crash Out as a choice as they simply have no other viable options left since they've rejected the WA twice now. It's all or nothing. They'll be a huge amount of whinging and whining from Brexiteers and the toxic rags of course but honestly this pales in comparison to people essentially going hungry for food outside the local Tesco or Sainsburies as supply lines fail.

I agree that someone somewhere has to call the British shenanigans out.

Problem is, I am not sure if the French unilaterally should do it either. Send a strong message perhaps, but it should really be a united 27 front here.

But maybe France is saying what Germany is afraid to say for fear of being thought of as the Master of the EU or something that could be interpreted like that. Who knows?

Did I read somewhere that Farage was stalking the far right groups in EU to see if they would block an extension also? If that is true he is some traitor. But anyway, I must stay calm and controlled.

Blocking an extension unless and until UK has a plan or a goal (France) is a bit different to blocking it by Far Right supporters to scupper any progress in UK for different reasons.

We sure do live in interesting times. And I could have it all wrong too of course. No one has a clue really what's happening at all really.

Infini

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I agree that someone somewhere has to call the British shenanigans out.

Problem is, I am not sure if the French unilaterally should do it either. Send a strong message perhaps, but it should really be a united 27 front here.

But maybe France is saying what Germany is afraid to say for fear of being thought of as the Master of the EU or something that could be interpreted like that. Who knows?

Did I read somewhere that Farage was stalking the far right groups in EU to see if they would block an extension also? If that is true he is some traitor. But anyway, I must stay calm and controlled.

Blocking an extension unless and until UK has a plan or a goal (France) is a bit different to blocking it by Far Right supporters to scupper any progress in UK for different reasons.

We sure do live in interesting times. And I could have it all wrong too of course. No one has a clue really what's happening at all really.

Honestly there has to be a line drawn at some point and in fairness the French may even happily do it and take the flak just to be done with it. The thing though is denying them an extention isn't the same as an out it just means the British are being told you have simple choice: Own your political problem of your creation, cancel A50 and deal with it or crash out and own the far bigger problem of your nation disintegrating, your economy tanking and every other problem associated with a crash out because your government, your parliment failed in its duty to its people and put arrogance, idiocy and pride before common sense and duty to country.

As for Farage I'd honestly love nothing more to see a comeuppance for that snake should his suspected Russian backing lead to some serious criminal investigations into him and his dealings. Same with Mogg's as well another fecking waster and sellout. These people were never fit for their roles and its saddening that they're going to cause lasting damage to their country because people didnt see them for what they are.

dublinman1990

The Seven news update from BBC Scotland reported some interesting info there. More info here on the BBC News website.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47627744

TM is doing some writing to Donald Tusk to ask for an extension to the Brexit deal until the 30th of June or possibly longer maybe stretching to another 2 years.

This would mean that she & other party leaders would now may have to mandate their own parties & candidates to take part in the European Elections in May. Some Brexiteers heads would probably even further now that the chances of them potentially voting on this WA again in the HoC will now not happen a significantly longer period of time or may never happen at all.

If this happens & if it is approved by the EU. The process of Brexit as it stands from TM may well become over even before it is considered again for a MV in the HoC.

Capt'n Midnight

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Yeah, you'd think a few of the grandee's who would vote for the deal (Ken Clarke type of MPs) might be uncomfortable about voting down a speakers ruling.

JRM approved the speakers use of precedent in this case. So May won't get this overturned easily.

And then JRM pointed out that a new session would bypass the restriction. And that would suit the ERG as it's more time wasted.


It's not the first time JRM has pointed out how the rules work, and been ignored by the press. It's not a constitutional crisis if the workaround has been explained shortly afterwards.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWFtVzlmBa8

Blowfish

RickBlaine wrote: »

Here's a question (the answer to which is probably complete speculation at this point), if the EU27 does not grant an extension, would the government not be under huge pressure to revoke article 50 given that Parliament has already voted against a no deal exit?

Maybe, maybe not, as you end up with the conflict between an advisory referendum for brexit voted by the people and a non binding vote by parliament against no deal.

It's 'the will of the people' vs 'the will of parliament'.

MrMusician18

Infini wrote: »

Honestly there has to be a line drawn at some point and in fairness the French may even happily do it and take the flak just to be done with it. The thing though is denying them an extention isn't the same as an out it just means the British are being told you have simple choice: Own your political problem of your creation, cancel A50 and deal with it or crash out and own the far bigger problem of your nation disintegrating, your economy tanking and every other problem associated with a crash out because your government, your parliment failed in its duty to its people and put arrogance, idiocy and pride before common sense and duty to country.

As for Farage I'd honestly love nothing more to see a comeuppance for that snake should his suspected Russian backing lead to some serious criminal investigations into him and his dealings. Same with Mogg's as well another fecking waster and sellout. These people were never fit for their roles and its saddening that they're going to cause lasting damage to their country because people didnt see them for what they are.

Mogg is a lot of things but I don't think it's fair to call him a sell out.

josip

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Tory voters are dying at 2% a year. So roughly one million would have died by now. Labour voting OAP's probably don't live as long.

Add in the teenagers who can vote now but factor in how few of them will vote and Remain would win today if every single person voted the exact same way they did last time.


And it was known at the time that the margin was made by people who wouldn't be around to live with the consequences.

CBA doing the maths again but a 21 month extension would probably take out over half a million more OAP's and add about the same number of voting teenagers, if they can get a good register to vote campaign going.

I thought that the majority of the oldest OAPs, those old enough to remember the war and the rationing afterwards, had voted to remain?
And that it was the younger OAPs, those who grew up in the 50s and 60s who voted leave.
So isn't it possible that the Leave vote would be just as strong a 2nd time around?

Imreoir2

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Mogg is a lot of things but I don't think it's fair to call him a sell out.

Yeah, to be fair, cashing in would be a better description than selling out.

One wonders, should a long extension become the solution of choice, if the Brexiters who voted against the WA and who aproved of Mr Bercow's decision will suddenly become quite unhappy at not having the opportunity of voting for the WA as Brexit day disapears into the dim future.

Leroy42

An earlier poster mentioned that the UK needs to own the decision and the fallout.

One thing that seems to have completely escaped the UK, they are totally focused on blaming the EU, is that the EU will have plenty of blame for the UK should they crash out and cause the type of disruption that is being forecast.

And whilst blame in of itself is meaningless, it will have an impact on future trading negotiations.

josip

josip wrote: »

I thought that the majority of the oldest OAPs, those old enough to remember the war and the rationing afterwards, had voted to remain?
And that it was the younger OAPs, those who grew up in the 50s and 60s who voted leave.
So isn't it possible that the Leave vote would be just as strong a 2nd time around?

I would not make any assumptions based on the age of the voters in the last referendum, after the punch and judy show that has gone over the past few weeks, it could easily go either way. It is really down to the no shows last time around and how they would vote if there is another chance to decide.

RickBlaine

Blowfish wrote: »

Maybe, maybe not, as you end up with the conflict between an advisory referendum for brexit voted by the people and a non binding vote by parliament against no deal.

It's 'the will of the people' vs 'the will of parliament'.

Revocation does not necessarily mean no Brexit. I presume it could be triggered again once they have a clue what to do (presumably under a new PM and probably a softer Brexit).

cml387

There was an interesting piece on The World At One today about Erskine May (ok I use the word "interesting" in its widest sense).

He joined the House Of Commons as a filing clerk at 16 in 1831. Only because of his job did he actually put together all the rules and procedures of the Commons into a book which he produced in 1844 (by then he had actually studied law).

That a filing clerk's work is now enshrined as a vital part of that nebulous entity called the English Constitution tells you all you need to know about the current mess.

cml387

cml387 wrote: »

That a filing clerk's work is now enshrined as a vital part of that nebulous entity called the English Constitution tells you all you need to know about the current mess.

It's important to remember that the UK does not have a written constitution, it has a series of rule books like this one.

trashcan

tuxy wrote: »

Has it been decided that they can leave current MEPs in place if they want to?
And if not won't they need MEP elections?

I hthink I read somewhere comments by a British Advocate General to the CJEU ( European Courts of Justicd) called Sharpston suggesting that this was a possibility.

cml387

Deleted User wrote: »

It's important to remember that the UK does not have a written constitution, it has a series of rule books like this one.

Exactly my point. And he did it off his own bat.

And Magna Carta? Does she mean nothing to you? Did she die in vain?
Brave Hungarian peasant girl who forced King John to sign the pledge at Runnymede and close the boozers at half past ten?

Thank you Tony Hancock

Capt'n Midnight

Hurrache wrote: »

Not sure how many saw Liam Fox's tweet yesterday heralding great news on Brexit,
twitter.com/LiamFox/status/1107720401512206336

Well it turns out he was not quite so forthcoming with the details.

twitter.com/stigeidi/status/1107742222739558407
twitter.com/stigeidi/status/1107775152593534984

How bad does it need to get before they accept that they aren't going to be able to roll over deals.

And that other countries granting them continuation deals that suit those countries, isn't a win , especially if those deals are only for the duration.

And how is it going to work when they get to the big boys if they can't get an equal deal with these countries ?


It's time they admitted that getting good FTA's with the rest of the world is a pipe dream. It's like the best they can get is the current EU deal, and that automatically blocks any future deal the EU gets, looking at the Swiss deal for starters.

Kermit.de.frog

Peston saying Brexiteers are saying they can live with 9 month extension.


Any longer and the feeling is Brexit probably wouldn't happen at all.

johnmcdnl

Out of curiosity, has the Dail any similar rules that would prevent a government from bringing the same legislation back multiple times?

Capt'n Midnight

cml387 wrote: »

There was an interesting piece on The World At One today about Erskine May (ok I use the word "interesting" in its widest sense).

He joined the House Of Commons as a filing clerk at 16 in 1831. Only because of his job did he actually put together all the rules and procedures of the Commons into a book which he produced in 1844 (by then he had actually studied law).

That a filing clerk's work is now enshrined as a vital part of that nebulous entity called the English Constitution tells you all you need to know about the current mess.

More here https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0319/1037341-what-is-the-1604-convention-threatening-mays-brexit/
The latest edition, due to be published in May, will be the first version of the document available free of charge online.

The bottom line with the UK constitution is that the House of Commons can vote do damn well what it pleases. If there's a majority and enough time.

Imreoir2

johnmcdnl wrote: »

Out of curiosity, has the Dail any similar rules that would prevent a government from bringing the same legislation back multiple times?

Probably, I believe in the case of the HoC the rule is usually used to prevent the opposition wasting time forcing votes on the same issue multiple times. Governments by virtue of being in government usually win the votes they put forward and as such don't usually have any reason to bring the same thing back again and again.

Infini

RickBlaine wrote: »

Revocation does not necessarily mean no Brexit. I presume it could be triggered again once they have a clue what to do (presumably under a new PM and probably a softer Brexit).

The thing is that if they're forced to cancel A50 they won't be able to just trigger it again as it would be deemed "not in good faith" in a court of law and instead of 2 years they'd get 2 weeks at best if they were stupid enough to try it.

The Brexiteers are howling at this happening because they'd lose their chance at their deluded fantasy, it's not likely the British Public will vote to leave a 2nd time after the disaster of a performance from the HoC and Mays government not to mention more will likely be aware of their rights and what they stand to lose by leaving.

Edit: Yet another reason why the UK could end up breaking up if they crash out as well..

10000maniacs

I always assumed Stephen Barclay was a step above Dominic Rabb as Brexit Secretary, but his comments on Bercow's ruling today leave me flabbergasted.
"We need to see what is different coming towards the next vote, and if members of Parliament are changing their vote that does suggest that circumstances have changed." LOL

Capt'n Midnight

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Peston saying Brexiteers are saying they can live with 9 month extension.


Any longer and the feeling is Brexit probably wouldn't happen at all.

Of course they are asking for 9 months, the EU has already rejected that. What with the elections and all.

It'll be October by the time the new commission is elected.


And all the Brexiteers want for Christmas is Brexit ?

UK tax year starts in April.
But for the owners of the UK car factories the financial year starts in Jan. It's like these clowns are trying to cause chaos and aren't even pretending.

road_high

After all the never ending insults towards the EU and it’s institutions and fellow members- they’re about to come cap in hand again begging for help. Even May herself hadn’t averse to a bit of EU bashing to keep her in with the Telegraph and co. All this has been well noted and politely taken on the chin in Europe.
Which begs the question after over two years of this, why should the EU facilitate? Sure there’ll be trade disruptions for a while but sometimes you got to suffer a little pain to get a positive end result.

trellheim

The HoC can always vote to overrule the Speaker, it is its own master in that regard.