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Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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    #1082
    recedite
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭recedite


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    So France and Germany hold the power?

    Why is nobody asking how the UK, one of the biggest economies in the world, allowed itself to be so utterly outmanovered with the EU by these and how that portrays how they will find themselves against the likes of the USA and China.
    There's 2 main problems hindering Brexit.


    1. PM May is a weak leader, and one who originally campaigned for Remain in the referendum. They sensed that in Brussels. The UK needed a strong decisive leader to pull it off, and one who actually believed in what they were doing.


    2. The game has been rigged. The EU set the rules such that a country cannot leave the EU without first agreeing to concessions. That prevents any member state from leaving in an orderly way. The UK just happens to be the first country to find this out, and they found out the hard way.


    The UK needs to stop playing by their rules. UK should call their bluff.

    Leave with no withdrawal deal, but suggest immediate implementation of a 1-2 year transition period. Negotiations to start then next month for the important stuff, which is the Future Relationship deal. IF Merkel and Macron reject this arrangement, then they are entirely to blame for trade tariffs and the hard border.

    Let the EU set the tariffs, and let the EU impose the border infrastructure.


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    #1083
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    recedite wrote: »
    There's 2 main problems hindering Brexit.


    1. PM May is a weak leader, and one who originally campaigned for Remain in the referendum. They sensed that in Brussels. The UK needed a strong decisive leader to pull it off, and one who actually believed in what they were doing.


    2. The game has been rigged. The EU set the rules such that a country cannot leave the EU without first agreeing to concessions. That prevents any member state from leaving in an orderly way. The UK just happens to be the first country to find this out, and they found out the hard way.


    The UK needs to stop playing by their rules. UK should call their bluff.

    Leave with no withdrawal deal, but suggest immediate implementation of a 1-2 year transition period. Negotiations to start then next month for the important stuff, which is the Future Relationship deal. IF Merkel and Macron reject this arrangement, then they are entirely to blame for trade tariffs and the hard border.

    Let the EU set the tariffs, and let the EU impose the border infrastructure.
    10 days to go and people are still throwing out this absolute nonsense


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    #1084
    ShooterSF
    Registered Users Posts: 8,824 ✭✭✭ShooterSF


    Water John wrote: »
    Rather than having to revoke Art 50 at the last minute to prevent Crash Out Brexit, TM has one better option for her on the table. Have her Deal passed by the HOC subject to a Ref.
    In that case, it would be the people who might have in effect revoked Art 50 not the Govn't.
    I'm sure some way can be found around Bercow's ruling if that is an impediment to a decision o the matter.

    Well the people already voted to leave so I feel any extension should be to allow for a referendum on the options with that in mind surely. BETWEEN May's deal or no deal.


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    #1085
    Inquitus
    Registered Users Posts: 13,753 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    ShooterSF wrote: »
    Well the people already voted to leave so I feel any extension should be to allow for a referendum on the options with that in mind surely. BETWEEN May's deal or no deal.

    That's never going to happen thankfully. If there is a 2nd referendum remain will most certainly be on the ballot.


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    #1086
    bobmalooka
    Registered Users Posts: 1,521 ✭✭✭bobmalooka


    recedite wrote: »
    There's 2 main problems hindering Brexit.


    1. PM May is a weak leader, and one who originally campaigned for Remain in the referendum. They sensed that in Brussels. The UK needed a strong decisive leader to pull it off, and one who actually believed in what they were doing.


    2. The game has been rigged. The EU set the rules such that a country cannot leave the EU without first agreeing to concessions. That prevents any member state from leaving in an orderly way. The UK just happens to be the first country to find this out, and they found out the hard way.


    The UK needs to stop playing by their rules. UK should call their bluff.

    Leave with no withdrawal deal, but suggest immediate implementation of a 1-2 year transition period. Negotiations to start then next month for the important stuff, which is the Future Relationship deal. IF Merkel and Macron reject this arrangement, then they are entirely to blame for trade tariffs and the hard border.

    Let the EU set the tariffs, and let the EU impose the border infrastructure.

    1. Agree that May has shown to be weak. Believing you ‘hold all the cards’ doesn’t make it true no matter how strong the leader is. Especially in a game where the cards are face up and always have been.

    2.there are no concessions - UK can leave tomorrow if they want. All they’ve been asked to do is stand by pre existing agreements if they want a new agreement.

    The next paragraph reads like you’re suggesting the path to a future agreement is to rip up what the negotiators just agreed, sit down with the EU again and tell them if you don’t do what we want the fallout is your fault. Good luck with that.

    Last sentence already redundant, UK published their proposed tariff system and de facto sea border last week.


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    #1087
    10000maniacs
    Registered Users Posts: 4,865 ✭✭✭10000maniacs


    Looks more like a hard Brexit today. A long delay will split the Tories. If Mays deal is rejected again which is very likely, there will be no short delay. The BBC are saying now she will hold the vote on Brexit eve (28th). For the ERG and the DUP it will be like Christmas Eve. A hard Brexit the following evening.


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    #1088
    ShooterSF
    Registered Users Posts: 8,824 ✭✭✭ShooterSF


    Inquitus wrote: »
    That's never going to happen thankfully. If there is a 2nd referendum remain will most certainly be on the ballot.

    Probably so but it doesn't take away from it feeling like it is cheating the public if there is only one option for brexit on the ballot. They were asked did they want out and said yes. Now that question was grossly ambiguous and has led to most of the problems in parliament as all different shapes and sizes of brexit have been sought after. To go back to the public and not have the core of the vote be how they want to leave but rather, it's this deal or we cancel the whole thing seems like trying to narrow the support for brexit to only those in favour of May's deal and disengage some of those who want a more extreme brexit to try and overturn the whole situation.

    If it was in Ireland and I was anti Europe I'd be a lil peeved after voting to leave to get only to vote on a deal or not leaving.


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    #1089
    recedite
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭recedite


    LeinsterDub wrote: »
    10 days to go and people are still throwing out this absolute nonsense
    10 days to go, and people here in RoI still complaining that the UK has not capitulated yet to the EU imposed pre-conditions.


    Ignoring the fact that we are currently facing trade tariffs for all beef and dairy products heading east to the UK, and an EU imposed hard border to the north to prevent all the zero tariffed goods coming south from the UK and NI into the single market.


    Varadkar has gambled the future of this country in a pointless endeavour to achieve a frictionless border by threatening the neighbours instead of being nice to them.


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    #1090
    ShooterSF
    Registered Users Posts: 8,824 ✭✭✭ShooterSF


    recedite wrote: »
    10 days to go, and people here in RoI still complaining that the UK has not capitulated yet to the EU imposed pre-conditions.


    Ignoring the fact that we are currently facing trade tariffs for all beef and dairy products heading east to the UK, and an EU imposed hard border to the north to prevent all the zero tariffed goods coming south from the UK and NI into the single market.


    Varadkar has gambled the future of this country in a pointless endeavour to achieve a frictionless border by threatening the neighbours instead of being nice to them.
    Not really EU imposed is it? If the UK leave the EU and we stay in ther has to be a border based on international rules as is my understanding. Not the EU's fault the UK wants to leave and can't pass the very deal they agreed to. It is why when the Irish govenment came out months ago saying they had no plan for a border I was intensely annoyed with them. You're the government and should know the old adage failing to prepare is preparing to fail.


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    #1091
    Panrich
    Registered Users Posts: 3,820 ✭✭✭Panrich


    recedite wrote: »
    10 days to go, and people here in RoI still complaining that the UK has not capitulated yet to the EU imposed pre-conditions.


    Ignoring the fact that we are currently facing trade tariffs for all beef and dairy products heading east to the UK, and an EU imposed hard border to the north to prevent all the zero tariffed goods coming south from the UK and NI into the single market.


    Varadkar has gambled the future of this country in a pointless endeavour to achieve a frictionless border by threatening the neighbours instead of being nice to them.

    Mays red lines and failure to build a cross party consensus is why we’re at this stage. Stop deluding yourself.


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    #1092
    Laois_Man
    Registered Users Posts: 5,758 ✭✭✭Laois_Man


    Panrich wrote: »
    Mays red lines and failure to build a cross party consensus is why we’re at this stage. Stop deluding yourself.

    They haven't even built a Tory party consensus never mind a cross-party consensus!


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    #1093
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 68,824 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    recedite wrote: »
    10 days to go, and people here in RoI still complaining that the UK has not capitulated yet to the EU imposed pre-conditions.


    Ignoring the fact that we are currently facing trade tariffs for all beef and dairy products heading east to the UK, and an EU imposed hard border to the north to prevent all the zero tariffed goods coming south from the UK and NI into the single market.


    Varadkar has gambled the future of this country in a pointless endeavour to achieve a frictionless border by threatening the neighbours instead of being nice to them.

    The UK gambled with everyone's future including their own, we just reacted to that in the only way we could.


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    #1094
    Roger_007
    Registered Users Posts: 21,886 ✭✭✭✭Roger_007


    recedite wrote: »
    ...............


    Varadkar has gambled the future of this country in a pointless endeavour to achieve a frictionless border by threatening the neighbours instead of being nice to them.

    Unfortunately the neighbors are a totally disfunctional family who used to live in the 'big house' and could never get used to the idea that they now have to muck in with the people they used to regard as their inferiors.


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    #1095
    recedite
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭recedite


    bobmalooka wrote: »
    Last sentence already redundant, UK published their proposed tariff system and de facto sea border last week.
    Am aware of that, but lets say (hypothetically) Brexit went ahead on the day as scheduled.
    Merkel might then tell Varadkar to get back in his box, as the whole idea of the WA and the backstop veto would immediately become redundant.
    All attention would turn to the future relationship between the UK and the EU. No preconditions.
    It would be in everybody's interest to announce an immediate Free Trade transition period. UK would then drop its proposed tariffs on beef and dairy, and it would commit to retain full harmonisation with the single market during the transition. This period could be used then to negotiate the Future Relationship and the actual trade deal, which negotiations would start in earnest immediately.


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    #1096
    Evd-Burner
    Registered Users Posts: 1,456 ✭✭✭Evd-Burner


    recedite wrote: »
    Am aware of that, but lets say (hypothetically) Brexit went ahead on the day as scheduled.
    Merkel might then tell Varadkar to get back in his box, as the whole idea of the WA and the backstop veto would immediately become redundant.
    All attention would turn to the future relationship between the UK and the EU. No preconditions.
    It would be in everybody's interest to announce an immediate Free Trade transition period. UK would then drop its proposed tariffs on beef and dairy, and it would commit to retain full harmonisation with the single market during the transition. This period could be used then to negotiate the Future Relationship and the actual trade deal, which negotiations would start in earnest immediately.

    It's a good thing we have a veto on future trade agreements, isn't it?


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    #1097
    AlmightyCushion
    Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,078 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    Evd-Burner wrote: »
    It's a good thing we have a veto on future trade agreements, isn't it?

    Didn't you hear Merkel is going to tell us to get back in our box. Just like we've been told she would do at some stage over the past few years. Just you wait and see.


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    #1098
    recedite
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭recedite


    Evd-Burner wrote: »
    It's a good thing we have a veto on future trade agreements, isn't it?
    Indeed we could use that veto and do a DeValera, preferring trade war with our neighbours to co-operation.
    Learn to live under a blockade, hemmed in by a hard sea border to the east and a hard land border to the north.


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    #1099
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Listening to Blair on newsnight almost made me forget his war crimes and wish he was there now to get his country through this crisis which i believe he would. How slick and confident he was in the face, i thought, of some bizarre questions from the usually spot on Emily Maitliss.


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    #1100
    Shelga
    Registered Users Posts: 3,009 ✭✭✭Shelga


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Listening to Blair on newsnight almost made me forget his war crimes and wish he was there now to get his country through this crisis which i believe he would. How slick and confident he was in the face, i thought, of some bizarre questions from the usually spot on Emily Maitliss.

    I thought that too. Blair was the last real leader the UK had. He speaks decisively and lays out the options clearly, and he has that undefinable leadership charisma that May would give her right arm for. I liked how he swiftly dismissed Emily Maitliss’s stupid question about turning to faith in these times.

    Sadly, 400,000 dead Iraqi civilians have rightfully destroyed his legacy forever.


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    #1101
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    UK economy looking strong with unemployment falling below 4% stats showed today.

    More economic ammunition for the Brexiters.

    Brexit not having any real negative effect on the numbers so far.

    I heard the argument recently that the healthy employment rates are actually a symptom of an economey gripped by uncertainty. Given a choice between capital investment to improve efficiency and producitivity or increased staffing levels which allow for greater output at the cost of lower prodcuitivity, companies are opting for increased staff because they are worried about their assets being stranded if they invest in tech. Staff can easily be cut and replaced elsewhere should the need arise.


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    #1102
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Had beers last night with a Welsh friend. Brexit had never come up before, and I was surprised that he was like all my other British friends, ok with crashing out for totally vague and odd reasons. "The elite" etc.

    He said he'd rather stay but the ambivalence to it all I really have trouble understanding.


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    #1103
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    recedite wrote: »
    Am aware of that, but lets say (hypothetically) Brexit went ahead on the day as scheduled.
    Merkel might then tell Varadkar to get back in his box, as the whole idea of the WA and the backstop veto would immediately become redundant.

    And Varadkar might well turn around and ask Merkel who the hell she thinks she is to talk to another head of government like that. Fortunatly the rest of the EU do not act like a bunch of school children, and unlike the British political class do not feel the need to be needlessly provocative. Ireland has a cast iron veto on any future trade deal the EU makes with the UK, stronger in legal terms than the veto the EU gave us over the withdrawl agreement. You can be sure that there will be no posibility of any deal being done for as long as the UK is in breach of its obligations under the GFA. Implementing the backstop would remain a precondition for any talks on a future trade arangement.


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    #1104
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,416 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    Shelga wrote: »
    Sadly, 400,000 dead Iraqi civilians have rightfully destroyed his legacy forever.
    Blair has apologized for this, so would it be worth leaving him speak on a single topic when he's saying something worth listening to without dragging in the same issue all the time?


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    #1105
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,416 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    Deleted User wrote: »
    He said he'd rather stay but the ambivalence to it all I really have trouble understanding.
    Comes from a lack of information about what the EU does and how it now underpins so much of the day-to-day life of the UK.

    Populism is well-known for boiling down complicated to simple, single and wrong answers.


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    #1106
    Shelga
    Registered Users Posts: 3,009 ✭✭✭Shelga


    robindch wrote: »
    Blair has apologized for this, so would it be worth leaving him speak on a single topic when he's saying something worth listening to without dragging in the same issue all the time?

    No apology would ever be sufficient, IMO. And Brexiters would have a very valid point in saying that Iraq was one instance where he messed up massively, so why should we trust his opinion on Brexit. It’s relevant, whether you like it or not. It shows his judgement is not perfect, to say the least.

    Plus he just seems to piss off a large percentage of Leavers and Remainers, by popping up constantly. I get why he speaks up, and he definitely has something to add, but I’m not sure it’s always helpful.


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    #1107
    blackwhite
    Registered Users Posts: 8,785 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    ballsymchugh wrote: »
    Farage isn't a member of any party at the moment, and given that the UK elect MEPs on a list system, unless he forms something pretty fast, or UKIP take him back in, he probably won't be back.
    there will be a few complete nutjobs though, UKIP have absorbed a few 'filthy articles' since the referendum

    Is he not now a member of the imaginatively titled “Brexit Party”?


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    #1108
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,416 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    recedite wrote: »
    10 days to go, and people here in RoI still complaining that the UK has not capitulated yet to the EU imposed pre-conditions.
    It was the UK and Ireland who signed the GFA, not the EU, so it remains the responsibility of both signatories to keep an open border until such time as both signatories agree that it should be otherwise.
    recedite wrote: »
    Ignoring the fact that we are currently facing trade tariffs for all beef and dairy products heading east to the UK, and an EU imposed hard border to the north to prevent all the zero tariffed goods coming south from the UK and NI into the single market.
    Where there are tariff differences and no border, then criminals - which Northern Ireland has in abundance - will flourish selling items from low-tariff zones into high-tariff zones. One can hardly blame the EU and Ireland for wanting to cut down on criminal activity, even if ERG and DUP policy wish to facilitate it.
    recedite wrote: »
    Varadkar has gambled the future of this country in a pointless endeavour to achieve a frictionless border by threatening the neighbours instead of being nice to them.
    You may not fully understand how borders, tariffs and criminals interact - see above.


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    #1109
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Shelga wrote: »
    No apology would ever be sufficient, IMO. And Brexiters would have a very valid point in saying that Iraq was one instance where he messed up massively, so why should we trust his opinion on Brexit. It’s relevant, whether you like it or not. It shows his judgement is not perfect, to say the least.

    Plus he just seems to piss off a large percentage of Leavers and Remainers, by popping up constantly. I get why he speaks up, and he definitely has something to add, but I’m not sure it’s always helpful.

    I think you’re right on that. No matter how succinctly he condenses the issues, or how much common sense he brings to the discussion, there’ll be a rump of people who will totally dismiss him out of hand simply for who he is. Said it himself tonight, the pm and her party have been c***ing it up for 2 years and yet as soon as Blair sticks his nose in, its all his fault. Ends up being divisive simply by default.
    Alastair Campbell was on last week and probably for the first time ever I found myself vigorously nodding my head at everything he said. Never honestly thought I’d see that day.


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    #1110
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,416 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    Shelga wrote: »
    And Brexiters would have a very valid point in saying that Iraq was one instance where he messed up massively, so why should we trust his opinion on Brexit.
    Brexiters are on thin ice indeed accusing others of gross incompetence or destroying their country's reputation.


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    #1111
    sabat
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,896 ✭✭✭sabat


    recedite wrote: »

    Varadkar has gambled the future of this country in a pointless endeavour to achieve a frictionless border by threatening the neighbours instead of being nice to them.

    Priti Patel threatened Ireland's food supply - an actual war crime under the Geneva Convention. JRM, David Davies and others have on several occasions directly threatened the Irish economy. Can you link to any instance of Varadkar threatening the UK? And I don't mean when he just restated the same laws and policies the EU has always had.


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