Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Call me Al

Edwina Currie talking with Pat Kenny now. This should be interesting.

Inquitus

Disgraceful, with disaster for the UK one small misstep away, Theresa May continues to put Party before country by not asking for a longer extension.

jaykay74

I thought a small extension would be conditional on a material change or a tidy up period following acceptance of Mays deal (which ain't happening obviously). So what would the material change be or what would be the purpose of the extension ? I thought more time to discuss things wasn't considered a reason to extend.

Potentially the EU will reject the extension request I wonder based on no logically purpose!

And no request yet...

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1108297859751952385

Penn

seamus wrote: »

It must be very difficult being a non-British euroskeptic over the last 24 months.

What was initially seen as heralding the fall of the EU, a fresh attack on a corrupt and inept institution has yielded the exact opposite outcomes than a euroskeptic would have expected.

Where they expected that Merkel and Macron would wade in and take the lead, use smaller EU countries as body armour, and bully and threaten the UK, instead the leaders of the big countries have decisively stepped back, given the spotlight to the small countries and used the weight of the EU to protect them.
Brexit was going to prove that the EU was nothing more than a step towards a new German federal superstate. Instead it's proven the opposite.

Where they expected that slow, incompetent EU bureaucrats would be chasing their tails while the savvy UK politicians dictated the playbook, instead the EU bureaucrats have been completely prepared from day one, have stood serenely and patiently waiting for the UK to get their sh1t together, and have never once been thrown a curveball or been knocked off guard by the UK.
Brexit was going to prove that the EU doesn't work, that it serves no purpose except to give big fat pensions to some foreign civil servants. Instead it's proven the opposite.

It's quite an amazing phenomenon of Brexit. Not only has the factual part of an orderly exit from the EU been proven impossible, but even the fantasy stuff, the Brexit-related "wins" that people voted on and that people attached to their own personal visions of Brexit, have been proven wrong.

There is not a single angle from which Brexit is not a complete and utter failure to deliver.

I actually saw someone on Twitter this morning retweeting quotes from some of the leading Brexiteers over the last few years about how the UK will hold all the cards, they might offer the EU a deal if they're feeling generous, the trade deal will be done over a cup of tea because it's so easy etc.

One of the best ones from David Davis
https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1065648460903473152

True intransigence in its purest form.

Joe_ Public

Penn wrote: »

I actually saw someone on Twitter this morning retweeting quotes from some of the leading Brexiteers over the last few years about how the UK will hold all the cards, they might offer the EU a deal if they're feeling generous, the trade deal will be done over a cup of tea because it's so easy etc.

One of the best ones from David Davis
https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1065648460903473152

True intransigence in its purest form.

Forget his name - Ivor something or other - Mays senior servant in brussels, who repeatedly warned them from the outset that they were heading for trouble and needed to start putting planning in place. Result: they got rid of him (too much talking down britain) and replaced him with somebody (olly robbins i think) who would just tell them what they wanted to hear.

MrMusician18

sabat wrote: »

Priti Patel threatened Ireland's food supply - an actual war crime under the Geneva Convention. JRM, David Davies and others have on several occasions directly threatened the Irish economy. Can you link to any instance of Varadkar threatening the UK? And I don't mean when he just restated the same laws and policies the EU has always had.

Didn't Varadkar threaten to close Irish airspace to UK overflights?

Tacitus Kilgore

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Didn't Varadkar threaten to close Irish airspace to UK overflights?

No he did not.

He stated that there may be access issues to the "Single European Sky" to UK operated flights in a no deal scenario, which would be an EU position, not an Irish one

https://www.thejournal.ie/factcheck-taoiseach-british-planes-irish-skies-4137889-Jul2018/

I believe this has been mitigated regardless now anyway

jaykay74

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Didn't Varadkar threaten to close Irish airspace to UK overflights?

The Sun certainly thought so. The Irish times and other more sane publications didn't.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/hysteria-over-varadkar-aviation-comments-doesn-t-fly-1.3571565

BASHIR

No, he just stated fact about potential deals may needed to use each others airspace .

https://www.thejournal.ie/factcheck-taoiseach-british-planes-irish-skies-4137889-Jul2018/

Robert McGrath

Not sure I understand the support here for Tony Blair’s position on Brexit even if we do ignore his legacy with Iraq.

In his interview last night he seemed to be saying that he would encourage the UK to stay in the EU if there were changes to freedom of movement.

Is this not what the Brexiteers have been saying for 2 years of negotiations, i.e. change the fundamental rules of the EU to suit us and our whims? The four freedoms are surely central to the entire EU project and compromising on them for the now provably unreliable UK with its inclination towards bad faith would be a grave mistake.

jester77

If it's true that she is only asking for a short extension and the EU reject it, can she then ask for a longer extension?

Ellian

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Forget his name - Ivor something or other - Mays senior servant in brussels, who repeatedly warned them from the outset that they were heading for trouble and needed to start putting planning in place. Result: they got rid of him (too much talking down britain) and replaced him with somebody (olly robbins i think) who would just tell them what they wanted to hear.

Ivan Rogers - he has a small book 9 Lesson In Brexit that is worth a read. Total takedown of the no deal scenario in simple and compelling terms.

prawnsambo

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

No he did not.

He stated that there may be access issues to the "Single European Sky" to UK operated flights in a no deal scenario, which would be an EU position, not an Irish one

https://www.thejournal.ie/factcheck-taoiseach-british-planes-irish-skies-4137889-Jul2018/

I believe this has been mitigated regardless now anyway

Temporarily for nine months I believe. And only for direct flights to/from EU countries. No intra-EU flights. But the wider narrative of threats being made is one of the hallmarks of brexiter logic that defies what's written in Article 50. The treaties shall cease to apply. That's what the leave side voted for. A lot of treaties (around 750) not applying any more.

Anteayer

jester77 wrote: »

If it's true that she is only asking for a short extension and the EU reject it, can she then ask for a longer extension?

Yes but I don't see her being flexible enough to think that one though.

My theory is that the EU will just pull the plug fairly soon. It's become ridiculous.

Hurrache

9 days to go and those in Europe continue to be bewildered by the UK as no letter received. Still early though.

Leroy42

I wonder will they send this letter with the same pomp and ceremony that they did with the A50 letter.

Remember the confidence they had at that time. Davies bestriding the EU stage, Boris Johnson going to sort out the international order and TM to be Thatcher Mark II.

An awful lot has changed.

Well, everything but the basic position of the EU I suppose!

Zubeneschamali

jester77 wrote: »

If it's true that she is only asking for a short extension and the EU reject it, can she then ask for a longer extension?

Yes, certainly.


Given recent noises, I am inclined to agree with Peregrinus now, that the EU will grant a really short extension, short enough that there will still be time to organize a long extension with Euro elections when the short extension achieves nothing.


What the EU will want to avoid is a short extension that is long enough that the UK don't hold EU elections but then need another extension anyway.

lawred2

Leroy42 wrote: »

I wonder will they send this letter with the same pomp and ceremony that they did with the A50 letter.

Remember the confidence they had at that time. Davies bestriding the EU stage, Boris Johnson going to sort out the international order and TM to be Thatcher Mark II.

An awful lot has changed.

Well, everything but the basic position of the EU I suppose!

I'm not sure that the arrogance and delusion levels have changed all that much

seamus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Given recent noises, I am inclined to agree with Peregrinus now, that the EU will grant a really short extension, short enough that there will still be time to organize a long extension with Euro elections when the short extension achieves nothing.


What the EU will want to avoid is a short extension that is long enough that the UK don't hold EU elections but then need another extension anyway.

What are you thinking, maximum 4 week extension? On condition that the UK commit to discussions on putting a longer extension in place?

Sounds reasonable. But HMG are not reasonable, so I don't know.

Despite what the EU has been making clear for months - that any extension straddling the EU elections cannot be a short one - it looks like May is going to ask for an extension to 30th June anyway, according to the media. Which the EU will reject.
It could be a game that she's playing; she knows the EU will turn it down, which in turn will force the HoC to vote on her deal or revocation.

The language from the EU is strong this morning, it looks like they're going to pull the plug if May's extension request includes any suggestion that she wants to use the time to renegotiate or gather new assurances.
If the letter doesn't outline how she plans to get the WA to pass in the HoC, the EU is going to say "no more", and force the HoC to stick to their self-imposed deadline of Friday week (!).

Hurrache

Leroy42 wrote: »

I wonder will they send this letter with the same pomp and ceremony that they did with the A50 letter.

Remember the confidence they had at that time. Davies bestriding the EU stage, Boris Johnson going to sort out the international order and TM to be Thatcher Mark II.

An awful lot has changed.

Well, everything but the basic position of the EU I suppose!

There's a few of these going around since yesterday
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1108139303471853569
https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1108275069371994114

trellheim

Letter not sent as yet.

Labour making noises they will not support a long extension.

Hurrache

There was a slight bit of optimism this morning with rumours that a SO24 may go ahead which is a standing order for emergency debates. Some remain parliamentarians were going to try get the extension changed to a longer period as it's likely May is only going to request a short one.

Then Corbyn and Labour comes along and says Labour won't support it.

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1108312457456558080

jester77

I would imagine the EU will only grant a short extension on the basis that she gets the WA passed in a third vote in the HOC. Would that be enough for Bercow to allow it to happen?

Imreoir2

I think no-deal is likely at this stage. The UK will waste the last few days bickering about what kind of extension to ask for and for what purpose, and when they do eventually ask for an extension it seems almost inevitable that it will have to be rejected by the EU because the purpose is to allow more time for the UK to seek further concessions from the EU, or to better prepare for no-deal, or to give May more time to get the deal through parliament without any clear plan of how to do that. The UK has not gotten its act together in the last two years, I can't see it happening now in the next week.

That leaves the UK with a choice of revoke A50 or go ahead with no-deal. Given the choice, I am not confident that enough MP's will have the sense to revoke A50.

20silkcut

Peregrinus wrote: »

So, those following Brexit on Twitter will have noticed a lot of ridicule being directed at the halfwitted Eurosceptic MEP Daniel Hannan. He wrote a newspaper article in which he claimed that (a) Fianna Fail won every Irish general election from 1932 to 2007, and (b) they lost the 2010 election because they were perceived to have been weak in allowing a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

This led to much Twitter merriment under the hashtag “#HannanIrishHistory”. Did you know that:

- The Orange Order is a law passed in 1795 requiring all those living north of the Boyne to drink fruit juice for breakfast?

- The ambulance siren was invented in Nenagh?

- The Spice Girls count Cumann na mBan among their musical influences?

- The Irish Potato Famine was introduced by the EU in 1996 as a punishment for Ireland rejecting Nice I. Only the UK stood by the Republic of Éire, loaning them potatoes in their hour of need?

- The statue of Oliver Cromwell outside Parliament in Westminster commemorates the Nobel Peace Prize which Cromwell won for ending the Irish Civil war?

And you can learn much more besides if you check out that hashtag on Twitter.

Since Brexiters never apologise and never admit an error, Hannan had no choice but to stand over his original claim about Fianna Fail, tweeting that:



Yeah, like Hannan’s take on Fianna Fail’s electoral history is even a remotely feasible interpretation. There’s interpretations, Dan, and there’s ignorance. Was that not also one of the things you were taught?

The ever-vigilant Twittersphere decided that, if Dan could be wrong about one thing, he could be wrong about others. Like his claim to have “a Double First in Modern History from Oxford”. Other Oxford History graduates chimes in to say that this didn’t sound right to them, and before long an Oxford History don appeared to confirm that, yup, Oxford graduates don’t have double firsts in history or any other discipline; the double first is a strictly Cambridge notion. It’s only in Dan’s “interpretation” that he has a double first.

Amusing, but also telling, because I think symptomatic of a wider problem. The Brexiter worldview simply sees the world as it wishes it to be, and then asserts that what it sees is true. And if one of its “facts” is questioned or looks dodgy, it simply sees the new “facts” required to ignore or dismiss that problem.

And that’s what has the UK in the state it’s in today.

Kids should be taught in how school that it’s ok to admit that sometimes they are wrong. Other kids should also be taught not to mock those who admit they got it wrong.
This blind brazening out of ridiculous positions and viewpoints is leading us into an abyss.
These people can’t and never will admit they got it wrong because it will make them look stupid.
Better to believe wholeheartedly in a stupid idea than admit you might have got it wrong about the stupid idea.

A lot of brexiteers are stuck in that conundrum.

bobmalooka

The EP election is the true deadline, 29 March is an arbitrary one caused by Mays A50 trigger.
I think the ‘cost’ of granting a short extension to the EU is quite small and will be granted to allow the possibility of finding a way to pass WA.

There may be a feeling that allowing more time will allow more mischief by UK but realistically they have little room for that - they’ve tried to isolate the Irish position and failed.

Hard decisions will need to be made when EP election time comes, allowing the extension pushed the ball back in the UK court.

lawred2

20silkcut wrote: »

Kids should be taught in how school that it’s ok to admit that sometimes they are wrong. Other kids should also be taught not to mock those who admit they got it wrong.
This blind brazening out of ridiculous positions and viewpoints is leading us into an abyss.
These people can’t and never will admit they got it wrong because it will make them look stupid.
Better to believe wholeheartedly in a stupid idea than admit you might have got it wrong about the stupid idea.

A lot of brexiteers are stuck in that conundrum.

admitting fault usually earns more respect

but you need a backbone to start with

Joe_ Public

I think it’s good and important to laugh at people like hannan - love the bit in brexit uncivil war where Cumberbatch aka dom Cummings flashes a look across the table and says “unintelligent, like you Dan” - but this spread of misinformation and downright lies is very serious. The brexiteers aren’t fools. They know their garbage on twitter will be challenged and ridiculed, but thing is that garbage will still stand proud and unvarnished at the top of the pile and those who want to swallow it will willingly do so. Maybe I’m biased because I don’t like it, but I fear twitter does as much harm as good, if not more.

Hurrache

bobmalooka wrote: »

The EP election is the true deadline, 29 March is an arbitrary one caused by Mays A50 trigger.

March 29th is the legal date to leave, nothing arbitrary about it.

Call me Al

Ellian wrote: »

Ivan Rogers - he has a small book 9 Lesson In Brexit that is worth a read. Total takedown of the no deal scenario in simple and compelling terms.

He's speaking with Sean O'Rourke right now.