Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

ShooterSF wrote: »

Surely the EU needs to come back with May 22nd or agree that you can't revoke article 50 past that date if you want an extension till the end of June due to not electing MEPs. She might even be able to pass a meaningful vote then in June

Apparently that is what they are already indicating

"Any extension offered to the United Kingdom should either last until 23 May 2019 or should be significantly longer and require European elections,” the document said. “This is the only way of protecting the functioning of the EU institutions and their ability to take decisions.”

But TM must have already been aware of this, so why would she send a letter to the EU knowing that it would likely be rejected? Even from a diplomatic POV this seems incredibly rude.

There was no doubt off record meetings where this possibility was discussed and the options open on both sides. I can't believe that the EU failed to inform her of the issues with the elections, and the question must be asked why she is ignoring the position that the EU would have made clear and sent a letter knowing that it would, likely, be rejected.

Is it just to try to get some extra time? And if so, surely she understands the cost in terms of trust and future negotiations this type of carry on will likely lead to.

ShooterSF

Enzokk wrote: »

PMQs is infuriating. May has stated a few times that parliament had the chance to take control of the process but they voted against it. I am happy to be corrected but didn't she whip against those motions like the Benn amendment that would have set aside time for MPs to debate those options?

It takes some courage to claim the house had a chance to do something when you, with your majority, stopped that very thing from happening. She is a liar and is not to be trusted.

In fairness she also whipped against the amendment to her own bill looking to reject a no deal and when she failed she whipped AGAINST her own bill and lost. So that whip is pretty blunt...

Duane Dibbley

The EU will reject this extension quick smart due to EU MEP elections.

But TM knows this already.

Leroy42

Laois_Man wrote: »

I'm flabbergasted!

This has to be rejected and there's no need to delay the rejection of it. Let her come to the summit and make a fool of herself tomorrow, then reject the request within an hour. It's out of the question that this request can be accommodated. No EU elections in the UK on May 23rd and then they possibly revoke article 50 on June 23rd = absolute chaos in the EU.

It's out of the question!

There is no need to reject it out of hand or quickly.

TM is saying that she needs a short extension to get her deal through. So hold off any reply and let her find a way to get her MV again. If that passes that 30th June is grand.

Put the ball firmly back in TM's court

Blowfish

Laois_Man wrote: »

May 22nd is no good either.
The EU could effectively be in a position where the UK revokes article 50 at 10:30pm on May 22nd with them having no elections the next day and every other EU country running elections where the allocation of seats has just become incorrect.

And that's the whole farce of it. The EU have to protect their own institutions, hence the absolutely only way they will agree to an extension is if either the UK has MEP elections or the extension is short enough that should A50 be revoked there'll still be time to plan and execute the MEP elections.

May being May of course ruled out elections entirely and asked for a timeframe where elections would be required....

Kiith

The utter hypocrisy to try and force her vote through a 3rd time when she claims that having a 2nd referendum would be unconstitutional is staggering.

The EU has to flat out reject it.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

There is no need to reject it out of hand or quickly.

TM is saying that she needs a short extension to get her deal through. So hold off any reply and let her find a way to get her MV again. If that passes that 30th June is grand.

Put the ball firmly back in TM's court

That leaves the issue of getting MV3 to happen though. A simple extension doesn't solve that. It just buys time and the past 2 years have shown the UK to be recklessly profligate in that regard.

briany

Enzokk wrote: »

Whether to rejoin the EU. This will not happen immediately though, the most likely action is a new general election and then a few years of stumbling around before they get to that realisation.

I just couldn't see the UK holding this type of referendum. Mainly because the terms of the UK staying in the EU and rejoining the EU would be different. If the UK were to crash out, and soon after apply to rejoin, things like joining Schengen and adopting the Euro would become part of the conversation, and such parameters would make even ardent Remain supporters think twice.

We could suppose that the UK becomes so battered and on its knees that it would accept rejoining under any stipulations, but the EU does not readily accept any old riff-raff.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Enzokk wrote: »

Whether to rejoin the EU. This will not happen immediately though, the most likely action is a new general election and then a few years of stumbling around before they get to that realisation.

A referendum to rejoin the EU would be a disaster for the UK, as it would require alignment with ERM-II and ultimately joining the Eurozone.

Leroy42 wrote: »

What, so TM could just select anyone she wants?

Hardly taking back control and dealing with the anti-democratic EU now is it?

Could she send over whomever she likes, Olly Robbins for Eg?

Where is the basis for this ability for countries to simply ignore the democratic requirements?

They would have to be elected MPs sent according to the EP legal department.

“The Legal Service… takes the view that… the European Council could validly adopt a decision containing a scenario for the composition of Parliament without seats envisaged for the UK, if the latter had not formally withdrawn from the Union at the time of adoption of this decision... The Legal Service takes the view that, the possibility for the European Parliament to be validly constituted following the 2019 elections would not be affected by a potential failure of by the UK to organise elections.”

Duane Dibbley

Leroy42 wrote: »

There is no need to reject it out of hand or quickly.

TM is saying that she needs a short extension to get her deal through. So hold off any reply and let her find a way to get her MV again. If that passes that 30th June is grand.

Put the ball firmly back in TM's court

The EU are not playing around. They will reject it today

ShooterSF

Leroy42 wrote: »

There is no need to reject it out of hand or quickly.

TM is saying that she needs a short extension to get her deal through. So hold off any reply and let her find a way to get her MV again. If that passes that 30th June is grand.

Put the ball firmly back in TM's court

The only way I see that working and I'm surprised it isn't mentioned more maybe it isn't enforceable is an agreement that the UK could no longer revoke A50 without EU agreement. The EU would be safe from having the elections screwed with and May would have the chance to put her deal forward as the only option against no deal crash out legitimately and probably pass it. Which seems to be win for both sides.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Blowfish wrote: »

My understanding is that there's legislation around appointing MEP's and it must be through an elected PR process.

That's aside from the obvious in that some of their seats have been 'handed out' to other countries, Ireland are gaining 2. What's supposed to happen there? Do they also expect the EU to be happy with them 'wasting' the seats by them being appointed/elected but not actually being around long enough for the first euro parliament sitting?

[edit] Partially beaten to it, thread moves fast.

EP has legal opinion that says they technically only have to be elected officials, they don't need to specifically be elected MEPs. The seat levels would remain the same until after the UK left.

It's a silly situation which is why we shouldn't allow an extension that goes beyond the EP elections.

Laois_Man

Leroy42 wrote: »

There is no need to reject it out of hand or quickly.

TM is saying that she needs a short extension to get her deal through. So hold off any reply and let her find a way to get her MV again. If that passes that 30th June is grand.

Put the ball firmly back in TM's court

Absolutely not!

There's no guarantee that MV3 will pass (or even that it will be held for that matter). She has even ruled out extending further beyond June 30th in the event that it doenst pass! Its ludicrous and arrogant to the extreme!


The reply has to come ASAP so as to give them one last week to cop the **** on!!

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Infini wrote: »

It's likely that they'd let Britain rejoin down the line once it get's its head out of its arse and get's its house in order. Conservatives and May need to go though they're dangerously incompetent and irredemably arrogant. Britain needs a significant amount of time to get its house in order and likely there wont be any point in rejoining before this happens. Likely though Scotland will go independent and NI will reunify with the south during that time though.

I honestly think the EU should just reject the application for an extention this week so as to give the UK enough time to seriously decide what it wants: In or Out. Make your choice but no more delaying or games. Decide. Because all they'll do is stall, delay and evade any decision unless they're forced to choose to be honest.

To my knowledge there is zero legal mechanism for a third-country to enter the EU without going through the official process.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

There is no need to reject it out of hand or quickly.

TM is saying that she needs a short extension to get her deal through. So hold off any reply and let her find a way to get her MV again. If that passes that 30th June is grand.

Put the ball firmly back in TM's court

She will not get another chance to vote on her deal again without any changes, either to the deal or to show it will actually pass. Seeing that the Speaker will not allow a vote to just happen without most likely an extension we are at a chicken or egg situation. The EU will not give an extension unless her deal is passed and she will not get a vote on her deal until the EU grants an extension.

Blowfish

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

EP has legal opinion that says they technically only have to be elected officials, they don't need to specifically be elected MEPs.

Isn't that scuppered by the fact that the UK elects MP's via FPTP and not PR, which is a requirement of the MEP elections?

I suppose they could get around that by handing out the number of seats to MP's in a PR fashion (i.e. 50% of the 'popular vote' gets you 50% of the MEP seats for your MP's). I'm not sure even that would work though as the likes of UKIP got 12% of the 'popular vote' so would qualify for a seat but have no MP's to give it to.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

The EU are not playing around. They will reject it today

Could be wrong on this, but I think they will wait until tomorrow to reject it.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Blowfish wrote: »

Isn't that scuppered by the fact that the UK elects MP's via FPTP and not PR, which is a requirement of the MEP elections?

I suppose they could get around that by handing out the number of seats to MP's in a PR fashion (i.e. 50% of the 'popular vote' gets you 50% of the MEP seats for your MP's). I'm not sure even that would work though as the likes of UKIP got 12% of the 'popular vote' so would qualify for a seat but have no MP's to give it to.

Honestly, I think they'd turn a blind eye to that if at all possible - democratically elected is democratically elected and I don't think the EU would look kindly on, in effect, challenging the type of democracy in the UK at this point in time.
That being said, a Member State could sue the EU in relation to the process, but again, I think they wouldn't bother and it wouldn't be well received by the other Member States.

Leroy42

But it still entails UK having to put forward MEP's, whether elected or directly chosen.

So from a situation where a majority of people voted to leave the EU based on its undemocratic nature the UK could potentially be in a long extension (should her deal no pass) with representatives based on whatever opinion TM has! Whilst it might legally be doable, politically it is a non runner.

Laois_Man

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

Could be wrong on this, but I think they will wait until tomorrow to reject it.

I just wish her humiliating presentation to them would be done in front of the cameras for all the world to see!

Seth Brundle

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

Could be wrong on this, but I think they will wait until tomorrow to reject it.

I reckon they will request more info before making a final call. They will want to be seen as trying to cooperate whilst the UK will be seen to confirm they don't know what they're doing.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I reckon they will request more info before making a final call. They will want to be seen as trying to cooperate whilst the UK will be seen to confirm they don't know what they're doing.

I think you're probably correct, but by issue with that is they have already clearly said her request should outline a legitimate reason for extension... MV3 isn't a good enough reason IMHO.

Akrasia

robinph wrote: »

I think her master plan is to crash out and run away screaming that it was all the EU's fault as they never did what she didn't actually ever ask for.

Her master plan is fairly obvious tbh, and it hasn't changed at all since she agreed her withdrawal agreement

1. Delay Delay Delay. Delay holding debates, holding votes, delay making decisions that need to be voted on

2. Hold votes when she feels she has to knowing that they will lose

3. Keep the possibility of a no deal and table until the very last minute. If possible have the possibility of no brexit removed as early as possible.

4. Get her deal passed because enough brextremists will be afraid of no brexit, and either enough remainers will be scared of no deal that they reluctantly vote for her deal, or she can delay it beyond the point when they can cancel Article 50 (by not participating in the EUPARL elections)

So far it's working. When she decided this strategy, she knew what she was letting herself in for. She knew she would have to stand up and lie and deceive and humuliate herself and repeat platitudes and avoid questions for months on end, knowing that she would face mounting pressure and mounting outrage the closer it gets to the 'last minute'.

She is prepared to waste billions of pounds in British and European money to get her deal through, a deal which is fundamentally worse than remaining in the EU in practically every way. But this is her gameplan, and she's very close to pulling it off.

Akrasia

What Jeremy Corbyn doing is almost worse. His strategy is to either allow May pass her terrible deal and take the blame for it, or allow her to crash out and blame her for it.

He is an utter disgrace and if I was a member of the UK labour party I'd be doing everything in my power to have him removed as leader.

Akrasia

Akrasia wrote: »

Her master plan is fairly obvious tbh, and it hasn't changed at all since she agreed her withdrawal agreement

1. Delay Delay Delay. Delay holding debates, holding votes, delay making decisions that need to be voted on

2. Hold votes when she feels she has to knowing that they will lose

3. Keep the possibility of a no deal and table until the very last minute. If possible have the possibility of no brexit removed as early as possible.

4. Get her deal passed because enough brextremists will be afraid of no brexit, and either enough remainers will be scared of no deal that they reluctantly vote for her deal, or she can delay it beyond the point when they can cancel Article 50 (by not participating in the EUPARL elections)

So far it's working. When she decided this strategy, she knew what she was letting herself in for. She knew she would have to stand up and lie and deceive and humuliate herself and repeat platitudes and avoid questions for months on end, knowing that she would face mounting pressure and mounting outrage the closer it gets to the 'last minute'.

She is prepared to waste billions of pounds in British and European money to get her deal through, a deal which is fundamentally worse than remaining in the EU in practically every way. But this is her gameplan, and she's very close to pulling it off.

If she can get another vote held.

Professor Moriarty

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

That sounds undemocratic, is all the EU have to reply to that.

We have entered the 11th hour, I say Tory party is days away from imploding.

Fingers crossed. It won't be Brexit that will break the Tory party, it will be selfish ambitions.

Akrasia

Brussels have said that they will 'strongly oppose' May's request, demanding that the extension ends on May 23, or a much longer extension.

May could easily have known this would happen and is using this to stall for time as per her strategy above.

Donald Trump

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

A referendum to rejoin the EU would be a disaster for the UK, as it would require alignment with ERM-II and ultimately joining the Eurozone.

This is true.


The slight qualification is that the timeline for "ultimately" is undefined.


It's de-facto of more "agree in principle" that they will do it eventually

More pertinent would you that their other existing opt-outs (and rebate!) would be gone.

Akrasia

Akrasia wrote: »

What Jeremy Corbyn doing is almost worse. His strategy is to either allow May pass her terrible deal and take the blame for it, or allow her to crash out and blame her for it.

He is an utter disgrace and if I was a member of the UK labour party I'd be doing everything in my power to have him removed as leader.

It's not a terrible deal though. Other than staying in the EU it's as good a deal as they're likely to get. When it was agreed I felt the EU had given them too much. I have to keep reminding myself that this deal isn't a rod for the UK's back however much they keep pretending that it's a humiliation.

Laois_Man

I said this yesterday....

Laois_Man wrote: »

I'm half convinced this letter will be intentionally designed as one to be rejected, then either WA goes thru or the UK has the default hard Brexit and May gets to blame Bercow and the EU

I'm no longer half convinced, I am fully convinced

Either a no deal exit or a panic WA3 vote next week, while blaming others is 100% her plan!