Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

serfboard

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think the Tories will fragment, May will resign and there'll be a GE before they crash out.

I don't know what's gone on in this normally spot-on thread.

Ye're all wrong. The EU will cave in at the last minute.:rolleyes:

Strazdas

MadYaker wrote: »

The rest of the EU must be well sick of this circus by now. Hard to imagine them granting anything

Yes : the British press have failed to pick up on the fact that Europe is now sick of Brexit and also that they think May has a screw loose.

The BBC and others have been talking in a matter of fact way of how an extension will be granted and not realising just how bad the atmosphere is and how perilous the situation.

Laois_Man

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The EU would grant an extension in the event of a GE being called. Barnier said as much yesterday.

There isn't going to be a General Election called before next Friday

robinph

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

She can blame the EU all she wants.

It might have worked if all this took place out of sight but everyone in the UK and around the world has witnessed the incompetence of the UK Parliament like it was a Drama on Netflix

Not everyone in the UK by any stretch. 17 odd million of them have been buying the idea all along that the EU is being awkward and still are set in that mindset.

Akrasia

Donald Trump wrote: »

Or else looking for an excuse to blame Europe for her own shambles. Easier to let them appear to make the decision rather than for her to actually own it

She wants them to reject her extension request, she never wanted an extension, she wants to use the cliff edge as the stick to beat the HOC with to pressure them into voting for her deal. If the HOC have already got an extended deadline, then her strategy of waiting for the last moment has to start again. She's only requesting an extension at all because she was forced to by the HOC. So rather than act in good faith, she is fulfilling that mandate by the letter of the law, but not by the spirit of the request. She is in contempt of the decision of the Parliament

Akrasia

Enzokk wrote: »

This tweet highlights how untrustworthy the government is.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1108359065749635077

Last week they said if her deal is not approved this week they will ask for a long extension and have indicative votes from parliament on the way forward. This most likely meant the Benn amendment was voted down, by 2 votes, because they would get the same as the amendment from the government.

Today she has ruled that out stating votes on this were held and it was rejected so no indicative votes.

It's utterly anti democratic and extremely dishonourable from the 'honourable ladies and gentlemen' But they have shown over and over again that they will abuse process and mislead parliament and distort the facts as long as it will get them what they want.

Professor Moriarty

Laois_Man wrote: »

There isn't going to be a General Election called before next Friday

I presume you mean Friday week? Probably not. The main options are: Pass the WA, promise a referendum, promise a GE, apply for a lengthy extension or crash out. My bet is that the WA might pass with a Kyle Wilson amendment. But a GE is certainly an option.

Duane Dibbley

robinph wrote: »

Not everyone in the UK by any stretch. 17 odd million of them have been buying the idea all along that the EU is being awkward and still are set in that mindset.

Its extremely rare that Ive seen Brexiteers point the finger at the EU. Nearly all feedback is pointed at TM and the whole Parliament.

Everyone in the UK knows they can just leave on the 29th of March.

Professor Moriarty

serfboard wrote: »

I don't know what's gone on in this normally spot-on thread.

Ye're all wrong. The EU will cave in at the last minute.:rolleyes:

Of course. Just needs Boris to nip over and tell the pesky bureaucrats what time it is.

Laois_Man

robinph wrote: »

Not everyone in the UK by any stretch. 17 odd million of them have been buying the idea all along that the EU is being awkward and still are set in that mindset.

Yanno, I have been following the Brexit thread on the nearest equivalent the UK has to Boards.ie for a few week now - not positing, just lurking, and you'd be surprised how similar the vast majority of posts are to what is posted on this thread.

So I wouldn't conflate the attitude of the UK media with that of the public. And I don't think the average caller into Nigel Farage's radio show on LBC is a good barometer either

jester77

Reports that Macron won't approve it

https://www.lepoint.fr/politique/emmanuel-berretta/emmanuel-macron-refuse-de-reporter-la-date-du-brexit-20-03-2019-2302680_1897.php

quokula

Laois_Man wrote: »

Yanno, I have been following the Brexit thread on the nearest equivalent the UK has to Boards.ie for a few week now - not positing, just lurking, and you'd be surprised how similar the vast majority of posts are to what is posted on this thread.

So I wouldn't conflate the attitude of the UK media with that of the public. And I don't think the average caller into Nigel Farage's radio show on LBC is a good barometer either

I don't know what website you were on but sounds like it's likely to be a bit of an echo chamber. I was living in the UK at the time of the referendum, and judging by everyone I knew, everyone I interacted with, and every community I knew about, I'd have expected Remain to win by a total landslide. But the reality is that it didn't, and polling since then hasn't shown a very big swing towards remain either. Nigel Farage's LBC callers may be more representative than you'd think.

Shelga

jester77 wrote: »

Reports that Macron won't approve it

https://www.lepoint.fr/politique/emmanuel-berretta/emmanuel-macron-refuse-de-reporter-la-date-du-brexit-20-03-2019-2302680_1897.php

Because she's asking for an extension until June 30th, despite being told it couldn't be past May because of European elections?

Did she pluck June 30th out of nowhere?

Duane Dibbley

quokula wrote: »

I don't know what website you were on but sounds like it's likely to be a bit of an echo chamber. I was living in the UK at the time of the referendum, and judging by everyone I knew, everyone I interacted with, and every community I knew about, I'd have expected Remain to win by a total landslide. But the reality is that it didn't, and polling since then hasn't shown a very big swing towards remain either. Nigel Farage's LBC callers may be more representative than you'd think.

They not talking about Remain or Leave

They are talking about accountability for this fiasco which nearly everyone can see points to the UK Parliament and not the EU weather you voted to remain or leave.

Laois_Man

quokula wrote: »

I don't know what website you were on but sounds like it's likely to be a bit of an echo chamber. I was living in the UK at the time of the referendum, and judging by everyone I knew, everyone I interacted with, and every community I knew about, I'd have expected Remain to win by a total landslide. But the reality is that it didn't, and polling since then hasn't shown a very big swing towards remain either. Nigel Farage's LBC callers may be more representative than you'd think.

I wasn't commenting on whether people wanted to leave or remain - that is not the post I was responding to (although now that you mention it, the majority of people do realise the consequences of a no deal exit) - I was commenting on the attitudes to the performance of the British government over the last 2 years. The public by and large do not appear to me to be blaming the EU for it to the extent that the likes of BBC are trying to push. I speak in terms of friends I have in England also, not just the UK version of this forum.

LeinsterDub

Shelga wrote: »

Because she's asking for an extension until June 30th, despite being told it couldn't be past May because of European elections?

Did she pluck June 30th out of nowhere?

Well a round of negations was had, some wanted no extension , some wanted 9 months , other 21 months . After a lot of back and forward they all decided to compromise on 3 months .

The only issue is they are still negotiating with themselves

Shelga

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Well a round of negations was had, some wanted no extension , some wanted 9 months , other 21 months . After a lot of back and forward they all decided to compromise on 3 months .

The only issue is they are still negotiating with themselves

And she is still only engaging with Tory cabinet members, rather than reaching out across Parliament, as she should have done 2 years ago.

Irishmale0399

Has May actually stated what her road map is for the extension??? Wasnt that one of the conditions laid out by the EU to get it???

ArmaniJeanss

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Has May actually stated what her road map is for the extension??? Wasnt that one of the conditions laid out by the EU to get it???

Yes of course - she's not fick you know.

According to the letter the roadmap is to bring back the deal back to the HOC for a 3rd MV.

From the Guardian live feed.

And this Le Point report has more on Emmanuel Macron’s stance on an article 50 extension.

This is how the article starts.

"Pour Macron, c’est décidé : il faut ... refuser aux Britanniques tout report du Brexit, prévu à la date du 29 mars. C’est en tout cas la position qu’il exprimera jeudi lors du Conseil européen."

And this is how that gets translated by DeepL, with some tidying up from me.

"For Macron, it is decided: we must ... refuse to allow the British to postpone the Brexit, scheduled for 29 March. In any case, this is the position he will express on Thursday at the European council."

ToBeFrank123

Hopeless negotiators the lot. None of them seem to know how to get out of this hole they've dug for themselves.

Its pointless May negotiating anything with the EU without the leaders of the DUP and ERG sitting at the table beside her at UK-EU negotiations. The EU should also know this.

For the next round of negotiations the ERG and DUP should be out there so they can take some responsibility instead of sniping from the sidelines. Its been proved repeatedly May can't agree anything with EU unilaterally and she always has one armed tied behind her back.

What a complete mess.

Joe_ Public

Not sure whether May actually wants to be around as leader too much longer. As much as she has any strategy, I think it is just somehow to get her blasted deal through and get quickly out of dodge. So her legacy would be the PM who delivered brexit, fulfilled the will of the people, but avoid the sh!tstorm of consequences that follow that. She did her bit, others can then fail her afterwards.

Akrasia

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Well a round of negations was had, some wanted no extension , some wanted 9 months , other 21 months . After a lot of back and forward they all decided to compromise on 3 months .

The only issue is they are still negotiating with themselves

June 30 is the day before the new session of the EU parliament is due to start. ie: it leaves absolutely no time for any measures to be brought in to extend A50 again or make accommodations for the UK MEPs before the parliament is due to sit.

She chose this date because it is the date that makes it most unlikely that A50 could be revoked or extended.

Seth Brundle

One piece of good news for the UK...
Toyota to produce new car model at UK plant

Toyota will begin producing a new model at its Burnaston plant in Derbyshire, in a rare piece of good news for the UK’s beleaguered car industry.

The Japanese carmaker will produce a brand-new car for Suzuki at the site, which will be based on the Toyota Corolla model currently built at the plant.

The vehicle will be a hybrid, using engines from Toyota’s Deeside facility in North Wales with electric components imported from Japan.

Although the production, due to begin late next year, will not lead to any more jobs or investments, it will increase the utilisation rate of the plant, helping to improve its chances of remaining open in the longer term.

prawnsambo

Akrasia wrote: »

June 30 is the day before the new session of the EU parliament is due to start. ie: it leaves absolutely no time for any measures to be brought in to extend A50 again or make accommodations for the UK MEPs before the parliament is due to sit.

She chose this date because it is the date that makes it most unlikely that A50 could be revoked or extended.

I'm pretty sure the new European Parliament sits at the beginning of June.

Enzokk

Let me do a Laura Kuenssberg and bring some "news" to the thread.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1108383994238984193

So we may have a May resignation, or we won't. But we have this as well,

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1108384999802355712

So the opposition leader will be meeting the PM later. Who knows where this is going as I am sick of predicting when and what May will do.

LeinsterDub

Seth Brundle wrote: »

One piece of good news for the UK...
Toyota to produce new car model at UK plant

When "Factory doesn't shut down" is the good news you know the bad news is absolutely terrible

VinLieger

Bercow has allowed Starmers SO24 debate and it will happen today

Akrasia

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm pretty sure the new European Parliament sits at the beginning of June.

The old parliament officially ends on 1st of July and the new Parliament is inaugurated on 2nd of July.

During June, the new MEPs negotiate the formation of new political groups

Hurrache

And Tusk will give a statement at 4pm our time, it could be a go **** yourself and cop on, we already told you that we won't entertain a short extension beyond the EU elections, so go short before the elections, or go long.

Could also be designed as input into the SO24 which is scheduled to last 3 hours.