Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Akrasia

VinLieger wrote: »

Bercow has allowed Starmers SO24 debate and it will happen today

May is (allegedly) due to deliver an address from outside No. 10 later today.

There is speculation that she might announce a GE, but I've a feeling she'll just another groundhog day speech about 'the only way to ensure no deal is to vote for her deal'

Joe_ Public

VinLieger wrote: »

Bercow has allowed Starmers SO24 debate and it will happen today

Just started now.

Hurrache

Akrasia wrote: »

May is (allegedly) due to deliver an address from outside No. 10 later today.

There is speculation that she might announce a GE, but I've a feeling she'll just another groundhog day speech about 'the only way to ensure no deal is to vote for her deal'

"Let me be clear on this....."

At least she'll be dropping her "we'll be leaving on the 29th of March" mantra.

bob mcbob

latest poll shows clear majority to remain

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-deal-opinion-poll-theresa-may-a8831241.html

Infini

bob mcbob wrote: »

latest poll shows clear majority to remain

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-deal-opinion-poll-theresa-may-a8831241.html

This is why the Brexiteers have been so beligirent of course they know theyre gonna lose a 2nd vote and theyre hell bent on avoiding this. If parliment votes in the end to rescind A50 they lose too.

Joe_ Public

Not sure what this debate is supposed to achieve. The Tory benches are emptying by the minute.

Hurrache

Tusk rumoured to say that May sent her letter to them too late and therefore don't have time to make a decision on her request at tomorrow's summit, that and the fact they'd like to see if she can get some sort of approval behind her in parliament.

Irishmale0399

The HoC still hasnt understood that the EU have to agree to any change to the WA and that up to now they have said there will be no change.

Lets hope someone in Brussels comes out with common sense today and says....

Option 1.
Exit with the deal
Option 2.
Hard Brexit
Option 3.
Revoke A50

branie2

I'd go for option 3

Eod100

Hurrache wrote: »

Tusk rumoured to say that May sent her letter to them too late and therefore don't have time to make a decision on her request at tomorrow's summit, that and the fact they'd like to see if she can get some sort of approval behind her in parliament.

Does May need approval for any extension from HOC? If so why not do this before going to EU? Whole thing is a mess at this stage

who the fug

bob mcbob wrote: »

latest poll shows clear majority to remain

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-deal-opinion-poll-theresa-may-a8831241.html

Just to remind everyone that there was a clear majority to remain on the eve of the vote

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-remain-vote-leave-live-latest-who-will-win-results-populus-a7097261.html


think the most likely option is we will crash out on the 29th

Infini

Hurrache wrote: »

Tusk rumoured to say that May sent her letter to them too late and therefore don't have time to make a decision on her request at tomorrow's summit, that and the fact they'd like to see if she can get some sort of approval behind her in parliament.

Is essentially a viable approach as well, simply refuse to agree but not outright reject either and throw the fire under their seats so to speak.

I still feel that this is going to come down to a choice between rescind A50 or crash out with A50 being the final choice though. Simple truth is May is dead to rights politically and the EU want's a choice from the HoC: Stay or Leave. Cancelling Brexit and going to a GE or 2nd referendum is a viable approach but the EU I dont think can afford any more stalling, they cant allow the British policial incompetence to threaten the EU institutions hence why France would likely shoot down any extentions and have no problem doing so.

Enzokk

As others has posted it does seem that the talk from the EU is that her letter has come to late to make a decision at the EU Summit tomorrow. It also seems that they will not grant an extension unless they know what it is for and if she will actually need to use the extension to get the legislation passed on her deal.

So the EU will not grant the extension unless her deal passes and she will not get a vote on her deal from the Speaker. So, it is going to be interesting few days coming up.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1108396484435808256

prawnsambo

who the fug wrote: »

Just to remind everyone that there was a clear majority to remain on the eve of the vote

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-remain-vote-leave-live-latest-who-will-win-results-populus-a7097261.html

That was an online poll which are notoriously inaccurate. Later in the article, it says that leave had been leading until pretty shortly before the referendum and the other polls quoted were very close although marginally in favour of remain. It's always best to look at polls as indication of trends rather than a snapshot of opinion. And the trend was towards leave in the final days.

Sardonicat

Where's Donald Tusk got to?

EKRIUQ

I think everyone knows that May just wants to keep kicking the can down the road for another couple of months, in 3 months time we will probably be back to the final days before another decision has to be made.

If the 3 month extension is granted everyone in parliament will have a huge sigh of relief and not worry about Brexit until 2 months 3 weeks when May will try to push through her vote again.

This is my favourite image of the day

Hurrache

Sardonicat wrote: »

Where's Donald Tusk got to?

He was on a call to May he said, hence the delay.

Extension is conditional on a vote on the agreement. HTF is that going to happen and for May to claim it will.

Edit: sounds like the extension is based on the positive vote. If not, then no extension.

Joe_ Public

Positive response from tusk.

Irishmale0399

Extension on the condition for a HoC aggreement on the WA.....

Sardonicat

How can their be a positive vote when Bercow has ruled out a vote without substantial changes?

VinLieger

So they wont extend without approval of WA through HOC but that's not allowed unless its changed somehow which im pretty sure it cannot be changed?

Irishmale0399

Sardonicat wrote: »

How can their be a positive vote when Bercow has ruled out a vote without substantial changes?

Now we will see how they make it up as they go along.....:rolleyes::rolleyes:

JeffKenna

This is beyond crazy!!

prawnsambo

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Extension on the condition for a HoC aggreement on the WA.....

Very swift return of serve. HoC is running back from the net and hoping to get to the ball before it gets to the byline.

Joe_ Public

Adding a people’s vote amendment would be change enough I would think, it’s a possibility at least surely.

Inquitus

JeffKenna wrote: »

This is beyond crazy!!

What's happening? Stuck in work, can't watch the commons.

Hurrache

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Positive response from tusk.

Some seeing it as Tusk resigned to a no deal.

lawred2

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Positive response from tusk.

any link?

Irishmale0399

prawnsambo wrote: »

Very swift return of serve. HoC is running back from the net and hoping to get to the ball before it gets to the byline.

HoC now have to decide....WA, Hard Brexit or Revoke A50

Sardonicat

Inquitus wrote: »

JeffKenna wrote: »

This is beyond crazy!!

What's happening? Stuck in work, can't watch the commons.

Groundhog day.