Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

20silkcut

Laois_Man wrote: »

Where did you see this?

I saw a poll yesterday or the day before that said it is 30%

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-deal-opinion-poll-theresa-may-a8831241.html

Read down to where remain v no deal

57 to 43

Laois_Man

20silkcut wrote: »

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-deal-opinion-poll-theresa-may-a8831241.html

Read down to where remain v no deal

57 to 43

Ah ok, thanks.

That's a different choice that would never be the makeup of any ballot paper!

Hurrache

judeboy101 wrote: »

Can't they just call new session of parliament, bypass bercow put WA as full and final this +extension or no+leave ?

That's one suggestion that has been mooted. The other is that if she gets enough votes in her favour to vote for the WA, then she'll therefore have enough to overrule Bercow's ruling anyway.

jester77

May expected to make a statement at No 10 later

Donald Trump

weemcd wrote: »

Many don't understand what No Deal actually means, they think it means Brexit doesn't happen. I know that sounds insane, but a few different polls have shown this. Staggering.

Depends on how the question is phrased:


A) Would you like the UK to agree to the WA deal on the table so that it can exit the EU?


If the UK exits the EU, would you prefer that it does it under the terms of the WA or with no deal in place.





"remainers" might vote no for the first one.

Laois_Man

Varadkar confirms that May is addressing the British public tonight!

Enzokk

Some interesting points and statements being made during the debate going on now. The Brexit Secretary has said he would prefer no-deal Brexit to revocation of article 50 if those were the choices.

Justine Greening is very good as well, making the point that the rules of the HoC is there to protect MPs from bullying. Also a point was made that even if her deal passes next week, MPs will be out for some revenge on the PM for forcing them to choose between no-deal and her deal.

Anna Soubry made an interesting intervention. Apparently May is meeting, for the first time, with all the opposition leaders in the same room since she triggered article 50. She will then meet with hard Brexiters and will then make an announcement at 8pm to the press. I suspect she is fishing to find out if her deal will pass with the threat of no-deal, hence the meetings, what happens after that is going to be interesting.

upupup

SNIP. No more quips please.

Hurrache

Laois_Man wrote: »

Varadkar confirms that May is addressing the British public tonight!

Some over there will be spitting again as they got a bit upset when Coveney suggested (based on media reports) that May was going to go to Strasburg that evening.

If he does know May is going to give a speech tonight, and is not basing this on what he's been reading, I just expect another bull**** speech of lets make Brexit happen.

Eod100

Quin_Dub wrote: »

No , because he's already moved his fund to Dublin to protect him from that...

Man of the people though..

Exactly but nothing to do with Brexit apparently :rolleyes:

Infini

Laois_Man wrote: »

Where did you see this?

I saw a poll yesterday or the day before that said it is 30%

When its WA vs No Deal then the latter wins only because people think or believe the WA is little or no better than the former.

This is different than the WA or No deal vs remain as remaining is a clear leader on this.

The brexiteer supporters are significant but not a majority in all this but theyve had far more influence than they should until now.

Enzokk

Link to confirm that we, Ireland, are once again breaking the news of what will be happening in the UK.

https://twitter.com/Philip_Ryan/status/1108407950866030592

Christy42

Spook_ie wrote: »

seamus wrote: »

It's quite an amazing phenomenon of Brexit. Not only has the factual part of an orderly exit from the EU been proven impossible, but even the fantasy stuff, the Brexit-related "wins" that people voted on and that people attached to their own personal visions of Brexit, have been proven wrong.

Is that not actually a bad sign, once you're in we aren't going to let you out?

They are being let out. They need a plan for what they are going to do afterwards which seems sorely lacking. So far the only plans that have received parliamentary support is to "insert plan here" and to delay the decision with an extension. It is not up to the EU to do everything for them. If you decide to leave an apartment the landowner has no responsibility to find you the flat you want below market prices.

If they had a quick figuring out of where they are aiming for they could have had two years of planning. 10 days while they are still bickering means an orderly leaving is impossible.

Sardonicat

upupup wrote: »

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

There are going to be some absolutely fascinating autobiographies in a few years time.

Arlene Foster.
How I became Ireland's first 32 county Taoiseach:eek:

My grandfather and at least two great uncles just went into a prolonged spin cycle in their graves!

Leroy42

Hurrache wrote: »

Some over there will be spitting again as they got a bit upset when Coveney suggested (based on media reports) that May was going to go to Strasburg that evening.

If he does know May is going to give a speech tonight, and is not basing this on what he's been reading, I just expect another bull**** speech of lets make Brexit happen.

Oh yeah, the speech will be another roll out the greatest hits. TM standing up against the EU, both sides need to negotiate, HoC has been clear, EU acting against the interests of its members.

She'll probably spend some time on how terrible Labour are, but then state that she met with all the party leaders today in a bid to get consensus. It is unfortunate that none of them agreed with her but she will continue to fight for Britain.

Will of the People will be mentioned a number of times, along with the responsibility of every member of the HoC to reflect that historic vote by voting for her deal, the best deal for Britain, for future trading arrangements.

She'll probably end by telling us that she is preparing to go to the EU summit, armed with the country behind her and put her case to the EU one last time. It a no deal happens, it won't be for a lack of effort on the part of the UK.

Hurrache

Enzokk wrote: »

Link to confirm that we, Ireland, are once again breaking the news of what will be happening in the UK.

https://twitter.com/Philip_Ryan/status/1108407950866030592

I did read elsewhere that the words he used were "as is my understanding" so it simply could be based on what the media are currently reporting, and people are getting their knickers in a knot over something that hasn't actually happened, i.e. he's the one to confirm the speech.

Akrasia

VinLieger wrote: »

So they wont extend without approval of WA through HOC but that's not allowed unless its changed somehow which im pretty sure it cannot be changed?

Bercow will definitely allow a MV3. He said in response to a question on monday that he will consider circumstances changing as possibly allowing the same motion to be brought for a vote. In this instance, the EU refusing an extension without the WA passing could be argued to be enough of a change in the circumstances to allow the vote to be tabled again.

Bercow made his statement in light of rumours that TM was going to put MV3 followed by MV4 and MV+1 after that. His statement was just an indication of how he might rule in those circumstances

Zubeneschamali

ShooterSF wrote: »

But can you put the genie back in the bottle? Put yourself in the shoes of someone who voted for brexit 3 years ago and wanted a hard brexit now seeing polls that 43% would support no deal in a referendum and then having your government comeback with a referendum NOT offering it. How would it not lead to chaos?

That would lead to "chaos" like Miffed in Surrey writing a strongly worded letter to the Telegraph.


No Deal next week will lead to chaos like police baton charging crowds of hungry people trying to loot an empty Sainsbury's.

Enzokk

Hurrache wrote: »

I did read elsewhere that the words he used were "as is my understanding" so it simple could be based on what the media are currently reporting, and people are getting their knickers in a knot over something that hasn't actually happened, i.e. he's the one to confirm the speech.

A lot of journalists are referring to Varadkar announcing that she will make a statement later and have not tweeted anything about it before. Some do have rumours about it but Varadkar seems to have confirmed it.

As for what she would say, seems it is nothing new as Leroy42 has posted according to this.

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1108412410149462016

Sardonicat

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

ShooterSF wrote: »

But can you put the genie back in the bottle? Put yourself in the shoes of someone who voted for brexit 3 years ago and wanted a hard brexit now seeing polls that 43% would support no deal in a referendum and then having your government comeback with a referendum NOT offering it. How would it not lead to chaos?

That would lead to "chaos" like Miffed in Surrey writing a strongly worded letter to the Telegraph.


No Deal next week will lead to chaos like police baton charging crowds of hungry people trying to loot an empty Sainsbury's.

And a special kind of chaos at our border. That they're willing to risk that should tell the DUP just how 'British ' they consider them

ToBeFrank123

No extension without passage of WA next week. About time some clarity was brought to this.

We will know definitely either way by March 29th.

An Ciarraioch

Enzokk wrote: »

Link to confirm that we, Ireland, are once again breaking the news of what will be happening in the UK.

https://twitter.com/Philip_Ryan/status/1108407950866030592

Laura K and Peston had already suggested as much long before Leo spoke, so presumably he was basing what he said on those reports.

Sir Oxman

She's skipped the 1922 cmtee meeting.
That's really unusual

Penn

Enzokk wrote: »

A lot of journalists are referring to Varadkar announcing that she will make a statement later and have not tweeted anything about it before. Some do have rumours about it but Varadkar seems to have confirmed it.

As for what she would say, seems it is nothing new as Leroy42 has posted according to this.

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1108412410149462016

Appealing to the country to get behind her deal will have the huge effect of doing absolutely nothing. That doesn't mean the MPs will vote for it. It doesn't mean Bercow will allow the vote. And it doesn't mean the EU will grant an extension of time.

She's going to be very clear that she has nothing of any value or substance to offer at this stage.

An Ciarraioch

Remainers and Leavers have finally agreed on something!

http://twitter.com/SkyData/status/1108413519513427969

Infini

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

No extension without passage of WA next week. About time some clarity was brought to this.

We will know definitely either way by March 29th.

Welcome to the true endgame, now make your choice and live with it. Pretty clear theres no chance of an extention without the WA so now we find out once and for all what will hapoen.

Infini

Sardonicat wrote: »

And a special kind of chaos at our border. That they're willing to risk that should tell the DUP just how 'British ' they consider them

We can always toss a few of em in the joy if they cross over our side and start acting up least till they calm down. That or Dundrum Mental Asylum!

Hurrache

Appealing to the country over the heads of MPs will do precisely fu(k all.

Enzokk

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Laura K and Peston had already suggested as much long before Leo spoke, so presumably he was basing what he said on those reports.

You are right, my later post referred to this. Some journalists were hearing those rumours, others were not or at least didn't find it credible enough to tweet about. It would be quite reckless of Varadkar to talk about a possible statement from May on rumours from twitter. That is what the BBC if for these days.

Zubeneschamali

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That would lead to "chaos" like Miffed in Surrey writing a strongly worded letter to the Telegraph.


No Deal next week will lead to chaos like police baton charging crowds of hungry people trying to loot an empty Sainsbury's.

It won't, though I don't think. It will be a long slog downwards with people not even attributing things caused by Brexit, to Brexit.

The next day after a no deal, people will go about their lives as usual, all the while talking about it was supposed to be the end days.