Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

serfboard

Deleted User wrote: »

The next day after a no deal, people will go about their lives as usual, all the while talking about it was supposed to be the end days.

Indeed. There is and has been huge amounts of stockpiling of food and medicines going on over the past few months.

Fresh fruit and veg will start to dwindle after a couple of weeks but, (he says snobbishly and condescendingly), that won't bother your typical Brexit voter!

Sir Oxman

I expect now her speech tonight will be full of shít.
Again.

https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1108386662046937088

"It’s time for Parliament to determine that it will deliver on Brexit. The British people deserve better than Parliament has given them so far."

briany

serfboard wrote: »

Indeed. There is and has been huge amounts of stockpiling of food and medicines going on over the past few months.

Fresh fruit and veg will start to dwindle after a couple of weeks but, (he says snobbishly and condescendingly), that won't bother your typical Brexit voter!

I think Remain supporters have definitely over-exaggerated the negative implications of a no-deal Brexit. Not necessarily in proportion, because I can't say how bad it will get, but definitely in speed. If the UK is not on fire by 11.01 PM, March 29th, Brexiteers will use that as solid evidence that the Remain side's claims were overblown and it was all just more Project Fear. By the time negative effects begin to be tangibly and un-ignorably felt, the Boiling Frog analogy could hold true for Brexiteers.

Shelga

Sir Oxman wrote: »

I expect now her speech tonight will be full of sh
Again.

https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1108386662046937088

"It’s time for Parliament to determine that it will deliver on Brexit. The British people deserve better than Parliament has given them so far."

She is the worst PM the UK has ever had. And still zero admission that she may have made some mistakes along the way.

Brexit is entirely a Tory creation, and she is trying to blame parliament for wanting something better than her dire deal for their constituents. She is vile.

Sir Oxman

Sir Oxman wrote: »

I expect now her speech tonight will be full of shít.
Again.

https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1108386662046937088

"It’s time for Parliament to determine that it will deliver on Brexit. The British people deserve better than Parliament has given them so far."

"Give the British people what they deserve."

Can't say I disagree, if it didn't affect us so much.

Infini

Sir Oxman wrote: »

I expect now her speech tonight will be full of shít.
Again.

https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1108386662046937088

"It’s time for Parliament to determine that it will deliver on Brexit. The British people deserve better than Parliament has given them so far."

And more than than half of that thread is comprises of leave and resign comments. Fecking arrogant woman she has no shame in blaming parliment for not getting her way then refuses to indulge realistic alternatives. History will not be kind to her or her conservative cronies that for certain.

Inquitus

So whats happening tonight? Any votes likely to be forthcoming, or just more bullshít grandstanding?

dresden8

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If May had waited a few months, so Article 50 date + 2 years was past the elections, what would have happened?

I think that was the thinking at the time. They didn't want to have anything to do with the elections.

Beechwoodspark

jester77 wrote: »

May expected to make a statement at No 10 later

Give me strength...

Anteayer

Sky's reporting from Westminster indicates that there might be a major problem ahead for May's premiership. The Tories seem to be starting to move to full backstabbing mode.

Quote "she didn't turn up (at 1922 committee) because she feared a lynching"

BonnieSituation

Anteayer wrote: »

Sky's reporting from Westminster indicates that there might be a major problem ahead for May's premiership. The Tories seem to be starting to move to full backstabbing mode.

Link?

Nothing in particular up on news.sky.com

Mark Francois on Sky now

Anteayer

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Link?

Live TV. Can't link, you'll have to watch.

Infini

Inquitus wrote: »

So whats happening tonight? Any votes likely to be forthcoming, or just more bullshít grandstanding?

Honestly it appears May is going full retard to the detriment of everyone. Seriously the games up and shes still going on like she has options.

If Corbyn tables no confidence next week thats when its likely to succeed in passing but by then they'll be heading for a full crash out.

Strazdas

Inquitus wrote: »

So whats happening tonight? Any votes likely to be forthcoming, or just more bullshít grandstanding?

May is making an address to the nation from outside Downing Street at 8pm but that doesn't necessarily mean anything dramatic.......she has form for making these addresses.

BonnieSituation

Anteayer wrote: »

Live TV. Can't link, you'll have to watch.

I'm watching Francois anois

Inquitus

Strazdas wrote: »

May is making an address to the nation from outside Downing Street at 8pm but that doesn't necessarily mean anything dramatic.......she has form for making these addresses.

Aye was mooted in the press it would be an appeal to the common folk over MP's head, calling for MP's to deliver the will of the people or some other meaningless babble.

Sardonicat

What has happened happened to the protesters outside the Houses of Parliament?

Nody

Anteayer wrote: »

Sky's reporting from Westminster indicates that there might be a major problem ahead for May's premiership. The Tories seem to be starting to move to full backstabbing mode.

Quote "she didn't turn up (at 1922 committee) because she feared a lynching"

Well they already tried that and failed; she still has a year or so of protection before another leadership challenge can be launched and they are not stupid enough to want a GE. Once again hot air and no content from the MPs; what a surprise.

jaykay74

Will there be enough time I wonder to reject her deal and then take further action like her to resign, extend for long period etc. Depends on timing maybe

recedite

Peregrinus wrote: »

Micosoft had it. The Irish government had a plan; it would just have been a very bad idea to say so publicly, since it would mean Ireland did not believe UK assurances that, even in in a no-deal situation, it would honour its no-hard-border commitment. Ireland in fact didn't believe those assurances, but it would have been a very bad idea to say so openly, since it would inflame things and make it easier for the UK to walk away from its assurances, and how would this be of any possible advantage to Ireland?

It would be nice if this was true, but Ireland's preparations for Brexit only started in earnest just before Christmas with this half arsed Contingency Plan. The reason it was left so late is that our entire strategy has been based on thwarting Brexit - either by a second referendum (which skullduggery we are well used to, but they are not) or by forcing the UK and NI to remain in the EU Customs Union (effectively not leaving the EU at all).
As for the notion that the UK ever gave a commitment to a frictionless border except as part of a WA, that is nonsense.


Oh wait... I see you said "hard border" not "frictionless" border. Well that's a different matter, the UK have always wanted the NI border to be as soft as possible. However a soft border requires goodwill and co-operation from both sides. And joint initiatives on stuff like cameras etc..
But a border between two states cannot be entirely frictionless unless both are in the same customs union.


There is only one "international rule of borders" and that is the one that says the degree of friction on a border is in direct proportion to the level of co-operation between the neighbouring states.


Hence the futility and the paradox of RoI threatening to veto an orderly Brexit unless a frictionless border was somehow provided. A soft border is not something you can demand with menace, its something you have to work at through joint initiatives and co-operation.


Varadkar's strategy can only work if the UK capitulates on its Brexit ambitions. That has not happened yet.



If, on the other hand, Brexit goes ahead without the WA (an orderly withdrawal agreement so far being vetoed by paradoxical Irish demands for a frictionless border) then the level of co-operation between the UK and the EU will initially be so low as to result in a relatively hard border with associated trade tariffs.
Our insistence on a totally frictionless border will have caused the opposite; a very hard border. And that is the Backstop Paradox.

Joe_ Public

Berating, castigating, heaping slurs on the very parliament that she needs to get her rotten deal over the line would represent the zenith of her stupidity if i didn’t think she was even more capable of scaling further heights of imbecility. The anger against her from all sides of the house today was palpable. No friends anymore, only people who still feel a bit sorry for her at best.

Strazdas

Sardonicat wrote: »

What has happened happened to the protesters outside the Houses of Parliament?

They're still there! You could see and hear loads of them yesterday in the background

Sardonicat

There was no sign of them or their flags tonight.

Itssoeasy

It seems Dominic grieve gave a very good speech earlier. Well I saw a bit of his speech but apparently from the comments under it it was a very good speech overall. It's possible the UK could easily crash out of the EU without a deal next week in fairness.

Itssoeasy

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Give me strength...

Well she might be very clear again...

Inquitus

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1108437470352494592

Mr.Wemmick

Itssoeasy wrote: »

It seems Dominic grieve gave a very good speech earlier. Well I saw a bit of his speech but apparently from the comments under it it was a very good speech overall. It's possible the UK could easily crash out of the EU without a deal next week in fairness.

I heard some of it, taped the rest to listen to later.

I think they'll revoke, sheer madness to crash out without a deal and they know it.

MrMusician18

recedite wrote: »

It would be nice if this was true, but Ireland's preparations for Brexit only started in earnest just before Christmas with this half arsed Contingency Plan. The reason it was left so late is that our entire strategy has been based on thwarting Brexit - either by a second referendum (which skullduggery we are well used to, but they are not) or by forcing the UK and NI to remain in the EU Customs Union (effectively not leaving the EU at all).
As for the notion that the UK ever gave a commitment to a frictionless border except as part of a WA, that is nonsense.


Oh wait... I see you said "hard border" not "frictionless" border. Well that's a different matter, the UK have always wanted the NI border to be as soft as possible. However a soft border requires goodwill and co-operation from both sides. And joint initiatives on stuff like cameras etc..
But a border between two states cannot be entirely frictionless unless both are in the same customs union.


There is only one "international rule of borders" and that is the one that says the degree of friction on a border is in direct proportion to the level of co-operation between the neighbouring states.


Hence the futility and the paradox of RoI threatening to veto an orderly Brexit unless a frictionless border was somehow provided. A soft border is not something you can demand with menace, its something you have to work at through joint initiatives and co-operation.


Varadkar's strategy can only work if the UK capitulates on its Brexit ambitions. That has not happened yet.



If, on the other hand, Brexit goes ahead without the WA (an orderly withdrawal agreement so far being vetoed by paradoxical Irish demands for a frictionless border) then the level of co-operation between the UK and the EU will initially be so low as to result in a relatively hard border with associated trade tariffs.
Our insistence on a totally frictionless border will have caused the opposite; a very hard border. And that is the Backstop Paradox.

I suppose that contingency plan just magically appeared by itself and no work went into it in the preceeding months?

It is no secret that the Irish government would like for the UK to abandon the Brexit project, and publication of contingency planning was left until the last possible moment to fit with this strategy. If the forces in the UK that want no deal could point to a document from the Irish government that made no deal easier then it could become self fulfilling.

Duane Dibbley

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

I heard some of it, taped the rest to listen to later.

I think they'll revoke, sheer madness to crash out without a deal and they know it.

I actually think her deal will be brought again this week or early next week and will pass.

Itssoeasy

If the EU don't give the UK and extension then surely Theresa May has to go. I can't see how she could credibly continue as prime minister when neither the House of Commons and the EU have any confidence to deliver anything outside of a no deal brexit which from the vote in the HoC recently they don't want.