Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Infini

Nody wrote: »

Well they already tried that and failed; she still has a year or so of protection before another leadership challenge can be launched and they are not stupid enough to want a GE. Once again hot air and no content from the MPs; what a surprise.

She's only protected from an internal heave, shes vunerable to a no confidence motion in the HoC though and if it goes to an election she'll likely lose her seat as well. If her government falls she falls too.

Christy42

Infini wrote: »

Nody wrote: »

Well they already tried that and failed; she still has a year or so of protection before another leadership challenge can be launched and they are not stupid enough to want a GE. Once again hot air and no content from the MPs; what a surprise.

She's only protected from an internal heave, shes vunerable to a no confidence motion in the HoC though and if it goes to an election she'll likely lose her seat as well. If her government falls she falls too.

DUP and Tories don't want an election. She will win a vote of no confidence for that reason and that reason alone.

She is not vulnerable to it. Especially given how much they hate Corbyn.

BluePlanet

recedite wrote: »

..
But a border between two states cannot be entirely frictionless unless both are in the same customs union.


There is only one "international rule of borders" and that is the one that says the degree of friction on a border is in direct proportion to the level of co-operation between the neighbouring states.


Hence the futility and the paradox of RoI threatening to veto an orderly Brexit unless a frictionless border was somehow provided. A soft border is not something you can demand with menace, its something you have to work at through joint initiatives and co-operation.

Varadkar's strategy can only work if the UK capitulates on its Brexit ambitions. That has not happened yet.


If, on the other hand, Brexit goes ahead without the WA (an orderly withdrawal agreement so far being vetoed by paradoxical Irish demands for a frictionless border) then the level of co-operation between the UK and the EU will initially be so low as to result in a relatively hard border with associated trade tariffs.
Our insistence on a totally frictionless border will have caused the opposite; a very hard border. And that is the Backstop Paradox.

It's bit like expecting Ireland and the EU to architect a solution for the UK regarding the border. It is not.
Britain presented "Smart Border" half-arse plan that was nothing but maybes, and it was roundly rejected as wishful thinking.

Infini

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

I actually think her deal will be brought again this week or early next week and will pass.

Its been rejected by significant margins twice one being a record. She's trying to bully her agreement through but her deal is seen as no better than no deal so its just as likely to fail a 3rd time. Unless a50 withdrawal or a 2nd referendum is on the table theyre looking at a crash out.

recedite

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I suppose that contingency plan just magically appeared by itself and no work went into it in the preceeding months?

If you read it, you'll see it contains nothing of any substance. Concrete damage limitation proposals did not appear until after Christmas.

BluePlanet wrote: »

It's bit like expecting Ireland and the EU to architect a solution for the UK regarding the border. It is not.
Britain presented "Smart Border" half-arse plan that was nothing but maybes, and it was roundly rejected as wishful thinking.

Its like I said; friction at a border is always in direct proportion to the level of goodwill and co-operation between the neighbouring states.
"Roundly rejecting" all your neighbour's ideas for a soft border while having no ideas for it yourself leads to.... a hard border.

fash

recedite wrote: »

If you read it, you'll see it contains nothing of any substance. Concrete damage limitation proposals did not appear until after Christmas.

You'll need to wait until no deal is certain before certain claiming that there are no plans. Until then, optics is a more likely reason not to be specific.

recedite wrote: »

Its like I said; friction at a border is always in direct proportion to the level of goodwill and co-operation between the neighbouring states.
"Roundly rejecting" all your neighbour's ideas for a soft border while having no ideas for it yourself leads to.... a hard border.

There is only 1 solution- regulatory alignment. Either they accept it ( with whatever saccharine words are required to make it palatable) or they do not. So accept the backstop - or do not - and that option is already on the table.

ShooterSF

Infini wrote: »

Its been rejected by significant margins twice one being a record. She's trying to bully her agreement through but her deal is seen as no better than no deal so its just as likely to fail a 3rd time. Unless a50 withdrawal or a 2nd referendum is on the table theyre looking at a crash out.

I think at this stage the only thing you can say with confidence on brexit is that you can't be confident of anything! Maybe she'll scare the hard liners in her own party to vote for brexit in the face of a GE or referendum.

PokeHerKing

Duane Dibbley wrote:

I actually think her deal will be brought again this week or early next week and will pass.

I thought her deal in its current form was blocked from a third vote by Berrcow?

TheValeyard

I honestly think the actions of the British political class maybe the biggest shambles since their dealings with Hitler in the 1930s. And yes I know it's a godwin, but still the whole situation is an absolute farce at this stage. British politics is currently doing a tremendous job at destroying the image of Britain on the world stage.

Shelga

So her speech at 20.15 is unlikely to be anything different? Just re-hashing her blackmail of the UK, dressed up as an appeal for unity.

Inquitus

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I thought her deal in its current form was blocked from a third vote by Berrcow?

It only takes a majority of the HoC to set aside Bercow's ruling, so if you have a majority for the deal, you might conclude you have a majority to set aside the ruling.

Laois_Man

recedite wrote: »

the UK have always wanted the NI border to be as soft as possible.

..........

Our insistence on a totally frictionless border will have caused the opposite; a very hard border. And that is the Backstop Paradox.

Contradiction!

Either the UK have always wanted the NI border to be as soft as possible, or they don't...which is it? If they won't be in the same CU, there is a hard border whether Ireland insisted upon it or not!

Inquitus

Marc Francois on CH4 news, what a twat, why does he get soo much Oxygen. The Tory on before, Minister for Prisons or w/e, came across reasonably well, but he seemed to think the only way this gets through is if Labour switches to back the deal in sufficient numbers.

Joe_ Public

Corbyn walked out of the pms meeting because the ind group were present, according to Vince cable on sky. What a strange way to behave, even if meeting appears to hsve been a waste of time.

zapitastas

recedite wrote: »

If you read it, you'll see it contains nothing of any substance. Concrete damage limitation proposals did not appear until after Christmas.


Its like I said; friction at a border is always in direct proportion to the level of goodwill and co-operation between the neighbouring states.
"Roundly rejecting" all your neighbour's ideas for a soft border while having no ideas for it yourself leads to.... a hard border.

What were all of these ideas for a soft border? The tech that has yet to be invented? The position of the British has been a farce from the start and their negotiating practice has been impossible to deal with. At this point I think it is pointless to try to deal with this government. This period of chaos will pass and hopefully a more sensible labour led government will emerge from the ashes

recedite

fash wrote: »

You'll need to wait until no deal is certain before certain claiming that there are no plans. Until then, optics is a more likely reason not to be specific.

Oh there are plans now, including various promises being made to the beef and dairy farmers to compensate them for the collapse in exports that would result from tariffs.

What I'm saying is that there was precious little planning done until just before Christmas when it became obvious that the UK parliament was going to reject the WA. PM May responded by postponing the "meaningful vote" and Varadkar responded by rushing to publish a vague "Contingency Plan" lacking any substance.
Neither leader had expected the WA to be rejected, hence neither had prepared a Plan B.

fash wrote: »

There is only 1 solution- regulatory alignment. Either they accept it ( with whatever saccharine words are required to make it palatable) or they do not. So accept the backstop - or do not - and that option is already on the table.

Except that threat has so far failed. The WA has not been accepted.
And BTW its regulatory alignment and customs union that would be required to maintain the frictionless border that we have now.


Such threats can result in either a hard Brexit, or no Brexit.
A soft (but not totally frictionless) border could have been achieved post Brexit, but it would have required RoI to pursue a different, less antagonistic, strategy.

Headshot

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Corbyn walked out of the pms meeting because the ind group were present, according to Vince cable on sky. What a strange way to behave, even if meeting appears to hsve been a waste of time.

What a child.

I can't believe he's so irresponsible. How this man is the labour leader is beyond me

Inquitus

recedite wrote: »

Such threats can result in either a hard Brexit, or no Brexit.
A soft border could have been achieved post Brexit, but it would have required RoI to pursue a different, less antagonistic, strategy.

The vast majority of our nation, and nearly all of our political parties, are behind our position, as such our Politicians have done a good job of representing our interests, along with the EU showing us the solidarity we deserve.

MrMusician18

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I thought her deal in its current form was blocked from a third vote by Berrcow?

I think the idea is that if the Strasbourg agreement is endorsed by the council tomorrow, May is hoping that will be enough for it to be considered a new proposition.

Bercow will be under tremendous pressure to relent, but it remains to be seen of course what he'll do.

Spanish Eyes

Headshot wrote: »

What a child.

I can't believe he's so irresponsible. How this man is the labour leader is beyond me

More to the point, how this man is allowed to carry on as Leader of the Opposition by the Labour Party is totally beyond me!

I wish someone would explain why he has not been kicked out yet. Momentum must have some internal powers or something. There are so many sh!t hot Labour MPs and shadow ministers. Surely someone could see sense.

Baffled.

Joe_ Public

Headshot wrote: »

What a child.

I can't believe he's so irresponsible. How this man is the labour leader is beyond me

I was inclined to defend him for a long time, but that passed some time back. He just can’t pull that party together, period. I don’t believe they are going far until somebody, Starmer would be my choice, with no excess baggage takes over.

recedite

Laois_Man wrote: »

Contradiction!

Either the UK have always wanted the NI border to be as soft as possible, or they don't...which is it? If they won't be in the same CU, there is a hard border whether Ireland insisted upon it or not!

As soft as possible. The UK position has always been very consistent on that. Even the DUP have been consistent on it.

Like the German-Swiss border, or the Swedish-Norwegian border.
You'd be surprised what can be achieved when both sides co-operate to make it happen.

Headshot

Huge respect to Dominic Grieve

Conservative MP Dominic Grieve on his friend Theresa May's "zigzagging" on #Brexit

MrMusician18

recedite wrote: »

Oh there are plans now, including various promises being made to the beef and dairy farmers to compensate them for the collapse in exports that would result from tariffs.

What I'm saying is that there was precious little planning done until just before Christmas when it became obvious that the UK parliament was going to reject the WA. PM May responded by postponing the "meaningful vote" and Varadkar responded by rushing to publish a vague "Contingency Plan" lacking any substance.
Neither leader had expected the WA to be rejected, hence neither had prepared a Plan B.



Except that threat has so far failed. The WA has not been accepted.
And BTW its regulatory alignment and customs union that would be required to maintain the frictionless border that we have now.


Such threats can result in either a hard Brexit, or no Brexit.
A soft (but not totally frictionless) border could have been achieved post Brexit, but it would have required RoI to pursue a different, less antagonistic, strategy.

I don't know how you can claim (credibly) there was no planning. There obviously was, and the support for the agriculture that you reference is an obvious result of that planning. Again, these things were not rash of the cuff decisions by the EU it the Irish government, but have been worked through and agreed, which takes time.

As I said, all of the no deal planning had happened behind closed doors because there was the obvious fear of it becoming self fulfilling.

If you feel mislead or let down by not being kept fully informed, well bless your naivety.

Enzokk

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Corbyn walked out of the pms meeting because the ind group were present, according to Vince cable on sky. What a strange way to behave, even if meeting appears to hsve been a waste of time.

He doesn't seem too clued up on making the optics work for him. This meeting was in all likelihood just a ploy by May but he is not helping himself or Labour by walking out before she even has started her pitch. If he wanted to walk out it had to be when May said something unreasonable, but to walk out due to Chuka Umunna being there is just as farcical and ridiculous as the government has been behaving. Nothing will change with Corbyn in charge, it will be just as chaotic as now.

milhous

recedite wrote: »

As soft as possible. The UK position has always been very consistent on that. Even the DUP have been consistent on it.

Like the German-Swiss border, or the Swedish-Norwegian border.
You'd be surprised what can be achieved when both sides co-operate to make it happen.

Consistent on the notion that they can have their cake and eat it too. Swiss are well aligned with EU regulation and are happy with that.. UK want to leave being governed by EU completely if every shape and form but want a soft border with an EU member state.. Yeah... They're the reasonable ones

Inquitus

recedite wrote: »

As soft as possible. The UK position has always been very consistent on that. Even the DUP have been consistent on it.

Like the German-Swiss border, or the Swedish-Norwegian border.
You'd be surprised what can be achieved when both sides co-operate to make it happen.

LOL, what a load of nonsense, we have all see how the Swiss German border is on the various news, current affairs shows, frictionless it is not. It also doesn't have the @200 crossing points our border has, Sweden - Norway has 40 for instance and Switzerland - Germany 42. Not to mention both of those pairs subscribe to European standards and Freedom of Movement.

Joe_ Public

Headshot wrote: »

Huge respect to Dominic Grieve

Conservative MP Dominic Grieve on his friend Theresa May's "zigzagging" on #Brexit

Absolutely, respect. Some MPs have distinguished themselves through this whole thing. Some might disagree but i would put Anna Soubry up there too, my only question would be why weren’t we seeing this anger and passion many months ago when it might have made a real difference?

recedite

Inquitus wrote: »

The vast majority of our nation, and nearly all of our political parties, are behind our position, as such our Politicians have done a good job of representing our interests, along with the EU showing us the solidarity we deserve.

I'll agree with the first part, disagree with the middle part, and as for the last part - lets just say we have been "extremely useful" to Brussels.
They have always wanted to make exiting the union as difficult and costly as possible, pour encourager les autres.

Inquitus

Some interesting Sky News polling data, obv not super reliable but still.