Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

boggerman1

According to a genius on lbc just now after watching the may speech like the rest of us ,the EU will come begging to the UK after they go WTO.u couldn't make this up

Imreoir2

Donald Trump wrote: »

I might not have explained my question clearly enough.
It was on the mechanics of how it is done and who has the authority to do it.

Suppose TM has the legal authority to sign the letter and send it. If she gets up in the middle of the night and secretly does that and it arrives in Brussels then I am sure that legally it is revoked.

Conversely, if it gets to 28th and everyone wants her to sign it, and either she purposely delays signing it, or sends it a slow route so that it does not arrive in time. Can someone else sign it for the UK?

That's all I'm asking. Not whether or not they *can* do it legally. It has been established that they can.

I believe there was a court case in the UK prior to invoking A50 on this question that found the executive could not go and send the letter by themselves, that a vote in parliament was required.

If TM were to send a revocation letter without approval in parliament, then it probably could not be accepted as valid by the EU as it did not follow the UK's coinstitutional requirements.

Alternativly, if the parliament voted to revoke and the executive refused to send a letter, then the EU could probably take it that A50 had validly been revoked anyway.

am i bovvered

boggerman1 wrote: »

According to a genius on lbc just now after watching the may speech like the rest of us ,the EU will come begging to the UK after they go WTO.u couldn't make this up

Scary, how many deluded, uninformed, frankly stupid people phone into LBC

Imreoir2

boggerman1 wrote: »

According to a genius on lbc just now after watching the may speech like the rest of us ,the EU will come begging to the UK after they go WTO.u couldn't make this up

According to another genious on LBC, Ireland should join up with the UK, and according to yet another genious on the same show, the UK should invade Ireland to solve the problem. LBC has some interesting guests.

prawnsambo

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

What purpose would Corbyn attending that meeting have served? As official leader of her majestys opposition he has regular meetings/briefings with May, and gets advance notice when anything major is going down.

Assuming the meeting with the LIBs, SNP, Cyrmu and TIGs went ahead, then it was quite clearly a waste of time for them to be there as there was nothing in that speech to suggest the remotest hint of reaching out to the '48%'.

What purpose does him walking out of it because Umunna was there serve? It just makes him look weak and petty.

listermint

recedite wrote: »

listermint wrote: »

Theresa may is a brexiteer, always has been.

.[/quote
I'm fully versed in that photo.

That was politicing. She was always a brexiteer. And has always had all the attributes of one. Including her husband.

Anyone who bought that photo needs their heads examined

lightspeed

lightspeed wrote: »

Just looking at betfair now and they have


Commons to pass brexit deal at 3rd meaningfull vote
Yes: 2.28
No: 1.67

So its not quite evens at least not yet and the No vote still the mostly likely option according to above odds.

Some of the other odds are interesting also:

No deal brexit- yes or No

Yes:5.2
No: 1.21

EU Referendum before 2020
Yes: 3.75
No: 1.34

It seems most likely outcome now is another referendum but it might not be 2020. I suspect it wont be an in out referendum but a referendum between the withdrawal deal currently on offer or to stay in the EU.


If the vote does not pass a 3rd time, no extension will be given. Hard to see a no deal happening giving the opposition. Only option remaining in that time will be to hold another referendum and on such a basis the EU will grant a longer extension.

It's important to remember that these odds are only based on how people are betting, It cannot be used as a guide to what is going to happen, only what punters would like to happen for them to win.

Water John

TM would never have gone to Parliament and tell them anything but Gina Millar forced her to. That why she now hates being beholden to the HOC.

Imreoir2

am i bovvered wrote: »

Scary, how many deluded, uninformed, frankly stupid people phone into LBC

They do arguably live up to their name though. Leading Britain's Conversation indeed.

prawnsambo

recedite wrote: »

Nope. The case was heard in the correct jurisdiction.

The judge ruled that the provisions of the GFA did not have anything to do with Brexit.
Its not all that hard to understand... if you are willing to understand it.

No it's not. But brexit hasn't happened yet and nothing has been agreed that could affect the GFA. But there are many pitfalls ahead. Not least the ECHR.

Donald Trump

recedite wrote: »

Nope. The case was heard in the correct jurisdiction.

The judge ruled that the provisions of the GFA did not have anything to do with Brexit.
Its not all that hard to understand... if you are willing to understand it.


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/oct/28/belfast-court-rejects-legal-challenges-brexit

Yeah, I still think you don't understand it

“It is the court’s view the prerogative power is still operative and can be used for the purpose of the executive giving notification for the purpose of article 50. This, however, is said without prejudice to the issues which have been stayed and which are under consideration in the English courts,”

Judge remarks on the British (unwritten) constitution which doesn't prevent the GFA from being ripped up.


So you seem to infer from that that it somehow never existed or that it is not valid for Ireland to try its utmost to insist that it be honoured?

Infini

prawnsambo wrote: »

What purpose does him walking out of it because Umunna was there serve? It just makes him look weak and petty.

The man's unfit to lead. Thats your reason. Ego and pride before national interest. Same with May she's also unfit. Trying blackmail and Bullying tactics. The irony is that by threatening her deal or no deal it's a literal payday for the brain dead bullshíteers who want to crash out no matter what.

Capt'n Midnight

recedite wrote: »

. https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/polopoly_fs/1.5526291.1526887519!/image/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_630/image.jpg

Just assume May wanted to be on the winning team.

Hurrache

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The Guardian reporting that the DUP probably won't vote for the WA. Interesting times ahead.

On top of the the ERG saying the same earlier this evening.

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

On top of the the ERG saying the same earlier this evening.

Don't think she'll get that many defectors from Labour. I expect her to resign if it's defeated a third time. Let Boris have a go.

Hurrache

listermint wrote: »

Theresa may is a brexiteer, always has been. She's been around the Tory block enough times and the high profile donors who have made huge bets on brexit happening.

This no longer has anything to do with Britian. This is solely money and big money for select few backers.

She lobbied for remain in the lead up to the referendum.

Water John

Boris was asked into No 10 for a chat yesterday?
She didn't lobby very hard. It was so lukewarm people didn't know which side she was on.

Joe_ Public

listermint wrote: »

recedite wrote: »

.[/quote
I'm fully versed in that photo.

That was politicing. She was always a brexiteer. And has always had all the attributes of one. Including her husband.

Anyone who bought that photo needs their heads examined

They say she voted remain in the referendum but who knows really? She was either a brexiteer masquerading as a remainer then or a remainer wearing a brexiteers cloak now. Part of me thinks she’s merely an opportunist who decided the best way she could keep power was by latching onto her party’s right wing, probably seemed a good idea at the time. She’s basically a female Boris without a shred of the humour or charisma.

Kermit.de.frog

Not sure about the DUP. If they are the last ones holding out they will vote for the deal I think.

Unfortunately for May they aren't the only ones holding out.

BorneTobyWilde

Revoke Article 50 and take back the power and the threat from the EU that they will only delay brexit if they pass the MayDay Deal .
Then have a people vote on her deal, or to remain. It's not ****ing complicated, it's win win and let the people decide on the reality of Brexit, not the lie of 500M FOR NHS OR REMAIN IN EUROPE. I can see why so many voted for the 500m for the NHS.

Shelga

How are they going to get around John Bercow's ruling that they can't have another vote on the same deal, in order to do exactly that again next week? What fudge will be used?

jester77

So she wants to pass a vote on something that has been rejected by historical margins, where she had been told that she can't repeat the same vote and then she comes out and insults the MPs that she needs to somehow persuade to change their minds.

The mind boggles

devnull

Labour MP has now claimed that Theresa May knows there have been death threats issued against MPs and that the speech tonight is unlikely to help with this situation.

https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1108480028533293057

RickBlaine

Shelga wrote: »

How are they going to get around John Bercow's ruling that they can't have another vote on the same deal, in order to do exactly that again next week? What fudge will be used?

There is talk of propagation which end the current parliament session and start a new one. Controversial because it would require the Queen to offically open the new session which the palace probably wouldn't like.

It is basically switching parliament off and back on again.

Joe_ Public

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Revoke Article 50 and take back the power and the threat from the EU that they will only delay brexit if they pass the MayDay Deal .
Then have a people vote on her deal, or to remain. It's not ****ing complicated, it's win win and let the people decide on the reality of Brexit, not the lie of 500M FOR NHS OR REMAIN IN EUROPE. I can see why so many voted for the 500m for the NHS.

I agree with the general gist of this. Her deal v remain is the best we can hope for I think, revoking A50 I think too unlikely. Unfortunately getting her deal to pass is complicated and by no means a guarantee. Think the nhs figure was more like 300 mill but point taken.

Joe_ Public

devnull wrote: »

Labour MP has now claimed that Theresa May knows there have been death threats issued against MPs and that the speech tonight is unlikely to help with this situation.

https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1108480028533293057

I’d there was any shred of doubt about her survival beyond the next couple of weeks I think that erased it. Totally wreckless and beyond stupid.

Headshot

Nolan Live on BBC One @ 10:35 tonight, should be an interesting watch

Akrasia

Hurrache wrote: »

She lobbied for remain in the lead up to the referendum.

So did Corbyn. Doesn't mean he wants to remain. She fought for the side she thought would advance her own political career the most

RickBlaine

am i bovvered wrote: »

Scary, how many deluded, uninformed, frankly stupid people phone into LBC

I saw one recently where someone suggested microchipping everyone in Ireland to track who is passing the border :rolleyes:

Shelga

They really need to stop referring to them as 'meaningful' votes. :rolleyes: