Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

WhiteMan32

Eod100 wrote: »

Am I right in thinking the extension to A50 until June is to get a MV3 passed next week? Can it get passed in HOC if motion doesn't change?

Good point. I mean, were the DUP to decide to announce publicly in advance that they will vote for the Withdrawal Agreement next week or next month, surely speaker Berchow could not merit MV3 as being different to MV1 or MV2 simply because of a promised turnaround by those 10 MPs.

Anteayer

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I doubt that will happen. EU will remain conciliatory as far as possible. Otherwise there will be heaps of sh!te piled on them for their arrogance in trying to keep the UK within the fold.

The irony of that!

But for a long time anything negative about Brexit was blamed on Remainers and the EU anyway. And it will be forever thus. The debacle of UK Government/Parliament will soon be forgotten, because they have a scapegoat right there in front of them forever.

Sad times. And so unnecessary too. Negotiations? Are you joking me.

The Sky survey was quite interesting: https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-90-say-handling-of-negotiations-is-national-humiliation-sky-data-poll-11670995

Data: https://interactive.news.sky.com/BREXIT_TABS_200319.pdf

Only 7% of the UK public surveyed (and it's a representative sample) blamed the EU. 26% blame MPs and 34% blame the government while 24% are just blaming all of them equally, but it's interesting that most of the scorn is being correctly aimed at the domestic British political system, not the EU institutions.

So it's possible that 'project blame everyone else' isn't working quite as well as the Tories think.

BonnieSituation

Headshot wrote: »

That should be fascinating

The panel will be Tobias Ellwood MP, Nick Thomas-Symonds MP, Jeffrey Donaldson MP, John O’Dowd MLA and Polly MacKenzie.

Tobias Ellwood MP: Remain. Leave constitutuency. Tory. Former military. Now reservist. Gaffe-in Williamson understudy in MOD.

Nick Thomas-Symonds MP: Remain. Leave constituency. Labour. Welsh. Well-regarded barrister and academic.

Jeffrey Donaldson MP I mean...do I need to say who he is...

John O’Dowd MLA: SF MLA. Minister of Education in Stormont before it was brought down by DUP corruption and intransigence. Acted as dep FM when Martin was canvassing for President in 2011.

Polly MacKenzie: CEO of Demos think-tank. Former advisor to Nick Clegg when he was Dep PM.

The audience should be something special I would say. Plucked from the loins of the Shankill and Ards no doubt.

Last night: "Meh, she barely says anything of note. I'll just go to sleep."

This morning: "This woman is underslept and has lost her marbles, and is lacking in good advisors."



Any wonder it's a shltshow.

Laois_Man

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Tobias Ellwood MP: Remain. Leave constitutuency. Tory. Former military. Now reservist. Gaffe-in Williamson understudy in MOD.

Nick Thomas-Symonds MP: Remain. Leave constituency. Labour. Welsh. Well-regarded barrister and academic.

Jeffrey Donaldson MP I mean...do I need to say who he is...

John O’Dowd MLA: SF MLA. Minister of Education in Stormont before it was brought down by DUP corruption and intransigence. Acted as dep FM when Martin was canvassing for President in 2011.

Polly MacKenzie: CEO of Demos think-tank. Former advisor to Nick Clegg when he was Dep PM.

The audience should be something special I would say. Plugged from the loins of the Shankill and Ards no doubt.

I expected DUP representation to be from Arlene Foster herself - and I am actually surprised they have any Sinn Fein representation at all but if they were to have, I would have expected it to have been Michelle O'Neill or Mary Lou

Peregrinus

This parliamentary petition to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU was started two days ago, and has accumulated (at the time of posting this) 363,300 signatures.

Not quite as many as the 369,839 sigantures on this petition to leave the EU without a deal in March 2019, but that one has been open for signature for 5 months.

Boardies who are voters in the UK may wish to consider signing one or other petition, if they have not already done so.

Scoondal

To sum up Donald Tusk's statement yesterday :
UK can get an extension to 23 May if the withdrawal agreement is passed before 29 March. Or a longer extension might be agreed if there is a referendum or a general election.
But on independant ie, they say that France, Belgium and Spain oppose any extension short or long.
Anyway the UK parliament will not agree to the UK/EU agreement.
So it must be a UK general election or referendum or a "No Deal" exit on 29 March.
What else can happen ?

dresden8

We're all concentrating on the commons but if it does get through there any word on which way the lords will jump?

Laois_Man

Scoondal wrote: »

To sum up Donald Tusk's statement yesterday :
UK can get an extension to 23 May if the withdrawal agreement is passed before 29 March. Or a longer extension might be agreed if there is a referendum or a general election.
But on independant ie, they say that France, Belgium and Spain oppose any extension short or long.
Anyway the UK parliament will not agree to the UK/EU agreement.
So it must be a UK general election or referendum or a "No Deal" exit on 29 March.
What else can happen ?

I really don't thing France, Belgium or Spain will mind too much any longer about an extension if MV3 passes next week. If it doesn't, there's no extension and it's not an issue.

The only way there is going to be an extension for a 2nd referendum or a General Election is if Teresa May is somehow ousted within the next 8 days. So it's hard to see how that can become an issue either.

Peregrinus

Scoondal wrote: »

To sum up Donald Tusk's statement yesterday :
UK can get an extension to 23 May if the withdrawal agreement is passed before 29 March. Or a longer extension might be agreed if there is a referendum or a general election.
But on independant ie, they say that France, Belgium and Spain oppose any extension short or long.
Anyway the UK parliament will not agree to the UK/EU agreement.
So it must be a UK general election or referendum or a "No Deal" exit on 29 March.
What else can happen ?

The UK Parliament could change its mind. There's some evidence that some MPs voted against the deal in MV2 only because they expected to have a later opportunity to vote for it. Getting a majority for the deal might be a bit of a long shot, but I wouldn't rule it out. (May certainly hasn't!)

Other things that could happen include:

- Revocation of A50 notice before 29 March. (I doubt this will happen, but it certainly could.)

- Shift in policy by government (probably associated with ditching T May) to seek cross-party consensus for softer Brexit; request to EU for longer extension to pursue renegotiation of Pol Dec to soften it.

And no doubt we could imagine other possibilities.

Scoondal

dresden8 wrote: »

We're all concentrating on the commons but if it does get through there any word on which way the lords will jump?

Well, if it gets through in the next 8 days it would be surprising. The Lords need not have too much worries about having to do a few hours work.
A third vote on the same proposal has been barred in UK parliament. If allowed, 75 MPs are not going to be pushed against their will.

Scoondal

The UK people voted for Brexit in 2016. And they voted for their MPs in 2017. So, ordinary UK citizens are responsible for their ridiculous situation now.

Peregrinus

dresden8 wrote: »

We're all concentrating on the commons but if it does get through there any word on which way the lords will jump?

We're getting technical now, but these "Meaningful Votes" on the approval of the negotiated deal are held under European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 section 13, which requires the House of Commons to pass a resolution approving the deal, but only requires the House of Lords to debate a resolution noting the deal. So the Lords may not vote on the deal at all and, if they do, the outcome of the vote is (legally) unimportant.

Having said that, if the deal is approved the government will then need to introduce, and get Parliament to pass, a Bill to amend existing laws to give effect to the deal and allow it to be implemented. (That's one of the reasons they need an extension.) That Bill will have to go through all the usual stages in both houses. In theory the Lords could at least delay it. In practice, and in constitutional convention, the Lords wouldn't obstruct so significant a policy that has been approved by the Commons. They might seek to improve it, but they wouldn't seek to vote it down and trigger a no-deal crash-out. (Especially since the Lords is a pretty Remainy place these days.)

Peregrinus

Laois_Man wrote: »

. . . The only way there is going to be an extension for a 2nd referendum or a General Election is if Teresa May is somehow ousted within the next 8 days. So it's hard to see how that can become an issue either.

Prime Ministers can be ousted within hours if the need arises. And after last night's petulant exhibition, May must be as close to that happening as she has ever been.

Scoondal

Peregrinus wrote: »

The UK Parliament could change its mind. There's some evidence that some MPs voted against the deal in MV2 only because they expected to have a later opportunity to vote for it. Getting a majority for the deal might be a bit of a long shot, but I wouldn't rule it out. (May certainly hasn't!)

Other things that could happen include:

- Revocation of A50 notice before 29 March. (I doubt this will happen, but it certainly could.)

- Shift in policy by government (probably associated with ditching T May) to seek cross-party consensus for softer Brexit; request to EU for longer extension to pursue renegotiation of Pol Dec to soften it.

And no doubt we could imagine other possibilities.

Will 75 MPs change their minds if another vote is even allowed in the next 8 days ?

Peregrinus

Scoondal wrote: »

Will 75 MPs change their minds if another vote is even allowed in the next 8 days ?

Only one way to find out!

If MPs conclude that there is no realistic prospect of removing May, and that revoking Art 50 without a referendum is never going to secure majority support in the Commons (and I think both of those are conclusions that MPs could plausibly come to) then it's a choice between Brexit with the negotiated deal and Brexit with no deal. And if it comes to that choice then, yeah, it's certainly possible that 75 MPs who up to now have hoped for better things could conclude that the negotiated deal is less destructive than no deal.

The Labour party may be key to this. When push comes to shove are they going to whip, in effect, in favour of a no-deal Brexit? And, if they do, how many party members will rebel?

robinph

Peregrinus wrote: »

- Shift in policy by government (probably associated with ditching T May) to seek cross-party consensus for softer Brexit; request to EU for longer extension to pursue renegotiation of Pol Dec to soften it.

And no doubt we could imagine other possibilities.

The only thing that will happen if they ditch May in the next week is a guarantee of crash out. There isn't anyone remotely looking for cross party agreement who would take her place.

lawred2

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Another genius wants to invade Ireland

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/tom-swarbrick/solution-post-brexit-irish-border-problem-invade/

It is largely only ever crackpots that ring in to phone in shows

Akrasia

The Kyle Wilson amendment is certainly going to crop up again. This time, Labour will have no choice but to support it. (Although you never know the way corbyn has been behsving)

Kyle Wilson amendment is basically an addition that passes Mays withdrawal agreement on the condition that it is put to the people in a referendum with the option to remain. If the Amendment passes. It would be treasonous for May to try to whip the tories against her own MV3. (But again, she has form on this in the past)

murphaph

Peregrinus wrote: »

Only one way to find out!

If MPs conclude that there is no realistic prospect of removing May, and that revoking Art 50 without a referendum is never going to secure majority support in the Commons (and I think both of those are conclusions that MPs could plausibly come to) then it's a choice between Brexit with the negotiated deal and Brexit with no deal. And if it comes to that choice then, yeah, it's certainly possible that 75 MPs who up to now have hoped for better things could conclude that the negotiated deal is less destructive than no deal.

The Labour party may be key to this. When push comes to shove are they going to whip, in effect, in favour of a no-deal Brexit? And, if they do, how many party members will rebel?

The Labour party have been less than useless but it's not reallly fair to say they would be voting in favour of no deal. The UK still has the power to revoke A50. There is still a choice between revocation and no deal if her deal is rejected. May would ultimately be responsible for a no deal. She was always going to be with her idiotic red lines that were never on the ballot paper. She is a stubborn stupid person with no emotional intelligence to boot.

It's time for her to go.

It's time for the sensible Tories to vote her out in a motion of no confidence put forward by the leader of the so called opposition.

She is the problem.

Soulsun

May to be gone by Friday.
It's a complete shambles.

Nody

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Another genius wants to invade Ireland

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/tom-swarbrick/solution-post-brexit-irish-border-problem-invade/

Well strictly speaking he's correct; invading Ireland would solve the border problem. Of course the problem is he's not thought beyond "fixing the border problem in Ireland" and what such an invasion would do to the overall relationship with EU etc. in true fashion of most UK proposals. They find a solution to an initial problem and don't think it all the way through in terms of implementation and implications (see Vienna treaty to get out of the Brexit deal, electronical magical unicorn border solution etc.).

Peregrinus

robinph wrote: »

The only thing that will happen if they ditch May in the next week is a guarantee of crash out. There isn't anyone remotely looking for cross party agreement who would take her place.

The issue is not whether there are people "looking for cross party agreement", but whether there are people looking to avoid a crash-out, and willing to make hard choices in order to avoid one. And I wouldn't entirely rule out the possiblity that such people might exist.

The truth is that the Brexit (much of) the Tory party wants, as embodied in May's deal, and the Brexit that (most of) the Labour party wants are not that far apart. And, rationally, each should prefer the other's Brexit to a no-deal Brexit. So all the ingredientss for a compromise Con/Lab Brexit that could also be acceptable to the EU are present; all that's needed is leadership who don't dismiss such a compromise Brexit because, and only because, it is a compromise.

Akrasia

Peregrinus wrote: »

The issue is not whether there are people "looking for cross party agreement", but whether there are people looking to avoid a crash-out, and willing to make hard choices in order to avoid one. And I wouldn't entirely rule out the possiblity that such people might exist.

The truth is that the Brexit (much of) the Tory party wants, as embodied in May's deal, and the Brexit that (most of) the Labour party wants are not that far apart. And, rationally, each should prefer the other's Brexit to a no-deal Brexit. So all the ingredientss for a compromise Con/Lab Brexit that could also be acceptable to the EU are present; all that's needed is leadership who don't dismiss such a compromise Brexit because, and only because, it is a compromise.

Dominic Grieve would have to be a front runner under such a scenario

ancapailldorcha

recedite wrote: »

They already voted on the "Strasbourg Agreement".
If they vote on it again, Bercow will be doing a u-turn, which is quite possible (because he is an idiot).

recedite wrote: »

He wastes parliamentary time rambling on about boring personal anecdotes, he makes contradictory rulings (hence he will likely have to make a U-turn), he walks to HoC dressed like an old hobo, and worst of all he is blatantly a partisan Remainer while sitting in the office of one who should be impeccably neutral.

No more insults please.

iguana

Peregrinus wrote: »

This parliamentary petition to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU was started two days ago, and has accumulated (at the time of posting this) 363,300 signatures.

Not quite as many as the 369,839 sigantures on this petition to leave the EU without a deal in March 2019, but that one has been open for signature for 5 months.

Boardies who are voters in the UK may wish to consider signing one or other petition, if they have not already done so.

That petition is zipping along very likely to pass half a million before 8am.

Nody

iguana wrote: »

That petition is zipping along very likely to pass half a million before 8am.

Does not matter if it does not reach 17.2 million; and if it surpasses that expect the Brexiteers to find and gripe about a few duplicates/fake signatures (i.e. Donald Duck, Mrs Thatcher etc.). Remember votes and democracy only matters as long as they are used to push forward with Brexit; if it's against Brexit it's clearly undemocratic and should be ignored.

Panrich

The contenders to replace May are all Brexiteers so there will be no softening of the UK position brought about by s change of PM.

The ERG are in dreamland now and will not vote for Mays deal as the ultimate no deal prize is within their grasp. Look for them ditching the DUP even if they are persuaded to vote for the deal.

Joe_ Public

The contest to replace May when it happens will be....quite something.

Akrasia

Listening to remaniacs this morning and they're saying that even if May's WA is accepted and there is an extension to A50, this doesn't mean that No Deal is off the table. The ERG could still block the acts of parliament required to enact the WA and there could be another cliff edge in May or June, except the acts of parliament will be much much more complex than the WA and could include some very unpalatable measures that would almost certainly be challenged in the house or in lords, and if the UK don't take part in the EU elections, they probably won't be allowed to extend again past June

If the WA is ratified, then the UK will lose the right to unilaterally revoke A50, so passing May's deal may make No deal even more likely than 'no brexit'

Its a total Sh1tshow