Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Joe_ Public

I think part of the problem with Corbyn - and a lot of leaders for that matter - is they surround themselves with weak minded acolytes afraid to challenge them or will even egg them on to do things they won’t themselves be in the direct line of fire for. One good thing i could say for Cameron, at least, was he insisted on advisers teasing out both sides of arguments before he took big decisions. Didn’t do him much good but idea was sound.

ancapailldorcha

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

May has put her party before country and Corbyn has done the same.

They are all the same, party first, country last.

The poor Lib Dems were first to argue for a new referendum. The Greens favour one as well. Not sure about the SNP but I do know they want to switch to PR knowing it would damage them.

Unfortunately, the SNP's restriction to Scotland and the First Past the Post system means that we're stuck with the two main dysfunctional parties.

Infini

demfad wrote: »

People should also start to see the post-truth element of these 'Statements'.

When she is under pressure she goes through all the theatre of a dramatic announcement, gathers the UK or world media, projects the whole show of importance/decision but syas nothing or diverts with a new talking point (blames parliament).

All her Statements have been like this. All theatre, no substance.

US and UK are starting to resemble more and more the 'Surkovian' Russian model of the early 2000's.

You project democracy and democratic processes which become increasingly weak and fake as time goes on.
Like a movie set.

THe model is called 'sovereign democracy'.

It is perfect for disguising a drift to right wing authoritarianism.

Right wing authoritanarianism seems to be the model to resist a democratic response to oncoming global issues like inequality and climate change.

Wouldn't necessarily go that far, Russia was never a natural democracy it was an absolute monarch and then communist for much of its existence, only having any real democracy before the Russian Revolution and during the 90's after the fall of the Soviet Union and once Putin and his cronies got in it's gotten rather shady over there and has slid back towards authoritarianism so it's not a good example.

Most of the problem's with the UK here is that their democratic system is obsolete and unrepresentative of the people (FPTP) and their system has become polarized because of this. There's also the additional problems in their education system not covering key parts of history properly and the fact they've allowed toxic rags like the daily mail, express and telegraph basically get away with publising untruths and outright lies like they're facts.

We have an impotent opposition leader who is clearly not up for the job as he has his own blinkered vision that isnt compatable with the national interest only party interest and a PM who is a lame duck in every respects. She cant assert authority because she lacks both the vision for leadership and the ability to inspire. She leads by trying to dictate the agenda but fails because she doesn't list realistic alternative's or looks for the greatest consensus in parliament that would lead to the deal passing.

She is now gambling with the future of the country by essentially trying to scare or blackmail MP's into supporting her deal which has been twice rejected. Not only is this foolhardy and doomed to fail but every time she tries this she loses. She would have won far more respect if she had just stopped being stubborn and stupid and either said this was the best deal possible otherwise we either have no option but to either cancel Brexit or return to the people for a 2nd vote.

Instead she's gone with blackmail and intimidation which won't work because she's not only an impotent leader but by doing so she's alienated both the MP's who support she needs AND emboldened the headbanger gobshíte's who's will likely vote against it. Epic fúcking Failure.

Eod100

This seemed inevitable. No idea why May said 30th June. EU had apparently already said it should be before 23rd May but she still announced 30th June.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/21/brexit-eu-rejects-theresa-may-request-delay-control

lawred2

Eod100 wrote: »

This seemed inevitable. No idea why May said 30th June. EU had apparently already said it should be before 23rd May but she still announced 30th June.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/21/brexit-eu-rejects-theresa-may-request-delay-control

So when the EU inevitably kicked that request back - she's nicely teed up the EU once again as the 'intransigent' negotiating party for the domestic audience. Doesn't matter if that's not the case. It's an easy sell.

This is not about Brexit. Or time to enact legislation.

This is about May squeezing one more day out of No 10.

SNIP. Cut this out.

robinph

lawred2 wrote: »

This is about May squeezing one more day out of No 10.

Will she still be in No 10 at 23:01 on the 29th?

She could wait until the Monday to resign, but that being April 1st might not be the legacy she'll be wanting.

Eod100

lawred2 wrote: »

So when the EU inevitably kicked that request back - she's nicely teed up the EU once again as the 'intransigent' negotiating party for the domestic audience. Doesn't matter if that's not the case. It's an easy sell.

This is not about Brexit. Or time to enact legislation.

This is about May squeezing one more day out of No 10.

SNIP. Cut this out.

The deadline is 29th March though, surely May picking a longer date past May makes it look like she's the one delaying Brexit?

prawnsambo

Eod100 wrote: »

This seemed inevitable. No idea why May said 30th June. EU had apparently already said it should be before 23rd May but she still announced 30th June.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/21/brexit-eu-rejects-theresa-may-request-delay-control

Probably because she was thinking of EuroParl resumption to pass the WA. But it's the same arrogance that she's displayed to date (and of course the rest of her government) where her only concern is her own and EU desire to keep it out of the elections is irrelevant.

Penn

Eod100 wrote: »

The deadline is 29th March though, surely May picking a longer date past May makes it look like she's the one delaying Brexit?

She is, but she's asking for three months which she knows she won't get. When the EU return with the 22nd of May, she can complain that they didn't give her the time she wanted.

That's what Brexit is now; a blame game. That much was clear from her speech last night.

Eod100

prawnsambo wrote: »

Probably because she was thinking of EuroParl resumption to pass the WA. But it's the same arrogance that she's displayed to date (and of course the rest of her government) where her only concern is her own and EU desire to keep it out of the elections is irrelevant.

Think it would be a disaster for her if UK had to contest European elections too though!

@jrmaidment)

It's being reported on twitter that regardless of what the petition says, it won't be revoked....


Jack Maidment (@jrmaidment) Tweeted:
Downing Street responds to the revoke article 50 petition by saying Number 10 and the PM have said “12,000 times” that it is “not something that she is prepared to do”. https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1108691097696587777?s=17

robinph

Deleted User wrote: »

It's being reported on twitter that regardless of what the petition says, it won't be revoked....


Jack Maidment (@jrmaidment) Tweeted:
Downing Street responds to the revoke article 50 petition by saying Number 10 and the PM have said “12,000 times” that it is “not something that she is prepared to do”. https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1108691097696587777?s=17

It's not her mind that needs changing though, I don't think anyone signing the petition seriously expects it to change either. But if the petition can have the effect of showing the rest of the MP's that there is significant support for them NOT to support a crash out or to be bullied by May then it is doing it's job.

MrMusician18

Given all the drama of the past week, it's a relatively slow day so far today.

I guess it won't all kick off until the council concludes this evening, although it's unlikely be anything new to discuss - unless the extension is vetoed or further conditions attached.

Joe_ Public

Today’s the day I’m beginning to come around to the stark possibility of no deal exit coming to pass. Dup seem to be heading full throttle for it, lot - maybe not all - erg will go same way I’m sure. Pretty sure her deal is goosed.

Laois_Man

HoC not sitting on March 29th

That's OK....what work could there possibly be to do that day!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1108690615506735104

ancapailldorcha

Penn wrote: »

She is, but she's asking for three months which she knows she won't get. When the EU return with the 22nd of May, she can complain that they didn't give her the time she wanted.

That's what Brexit is now; a blame game. That much was clear from her speech last night.

She can but trust me, when people start seeing this affect their lives there'll be demands for the government to act. Problem is, when this point arrives it'll have been too late as too much soft power, influence and sovereignty will have been ceded to Trump and the disaster capitalists.

What May said last night was terrifying. She joined in the denigration of a wholly democratic institution simply because it interfered with her authoritarian agenda of implementing a terrible deal that neither side who voted in the 2016 referendum wanted.

Sam Russell

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Today’s the day I’m beginning to come around to the stark possibility of no deal exit coming to pass. Dup seem to be heading full throttle for it, lot - maybe not all - erg will go same way I’m sure. Pretty sure her deal is goosed.

The situation has remained the same for the last three months.

1. WA passes and UK goes into the transition phase.

2. The UK fails to avoid the crash out for whatever reason.

3. The UK decides to revoke Art 50.

At this stage all are likely, and the opinion that one will succeed depends on who is talking to whom.

Crash out is a disaster all round - biggest losers are the UK. Ireland also loses, but the EU can bail us out, but no-one will bail out the UK without a vey high price.

WA appears to be dead in the water, but there are many who change their minds when faced by the hangman's noose.

Equally the Revoke option will be there and could be seen as a least worse option to the WA. The Revoke is at least under the control of the UK and requires no permission or agreement from outside the UK, and will not cause additional problems to the UK, except a few death threats from nutters, and a few tens of marchers making their way from Sunderland. Riots there will not be.

In the UK, the 'will of the people' is upholding a single advisory referendum riddled with lies and illegal funding, etc. The vote was non-specific on what would happen if the result was 'Leave'.

However, 'Democracy' also allows multiple votes on the same question in the HoC, but does not allow a second vote to approve the deal agreed between HMG and the EU.

We wait to see.

Enzokk

Laois_Man wrote: »

HoC not sitting on March 29th

That's OK....what work could there possibly be to do that day!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1108690615506735104

Why would they not be sitting that day? Seems to me if May has a total breakdown and doubles down on no-deal she doesn't want parliament to vote to revoke article 50. And people still think she is a remainer because she hedged her bets during the referendum?

Anteayer

Could she possibly be deliberately setting this up to fail?
I mean she must know that what she's asking for is illogical, impractical and unlikely to fly.


Perhaps her strategy will be to blame the EU and try to paint herself as a strong leader who is the victim of Brussels? I don't think it will work but I wonder if that's the thought process in the PM's "kitchen cabinet". I mean this will probably deliver a hard brexit and a lot of arbitrary power to deregulate or impose Draconian legislation without much oversight from legislators as it'll all be a panic and a rush.

It's just hard to believe that she could be simply stumbling into a mess thinking that this is a good plan.

blanch152

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Today’s the day I’m beginning to come around to the stark possibility of no deal exit coming to pass. Dup seem to be heading full throttle for it, lot - maybe not all - erg will go same way I’m sure. Pretty sure her deal is goosed.

A smart Labour amendment is to support her deal conditional on a referendum. Don't think Corbyn has it in him to propose it and don't think that May has it in her not to whip against it.

Joe_ Public

blanch152 wrote: »

A smart Labour amendment is to support her deal conditional on a referendum. Don't think Corbyn has it in him to propose it and don't think that May has it in her not to whip against it.

Yeah, that’s the Kyle Wilson document isn’t it? I had been very hopeful that we’d get a May deal passing with second referendum attachment scenario but vibes seem much less hopeful to me this morning. Lot can change as someone said above, of course. SNP are talking about a legal means of revoking, i believe, so could be something promising in that.

Eod100

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Today’s the day I’m beginning to come around to the stark possibility of no deal exit coming to pass. Dup seem to be heading full throttle for it, lot - maybe not all - erg will go same way I’m sure. Pretty sure her deal is goosed.

I think the extension to A50 is a safety net for this but if a MV3 fails, I don't see how there could be a MV4. She seems to have annoyed a lot of people with her statement when she was trying to get MPS to change side.

I guess No Deal is default until otherwise decided so it's a it dicey alright.

Sam Russell

Enzokk wrote: »

Why would they not be sitting that day? Seems to me if May has a total breakdown and doubles down on no-deal she doesn't want parliament to vote to revoke article 50. And people still think she is a remainer because she hedged her bets during the referendum?

The only way TM is a remainer is that she has always wanted to remain.

1. She wanted to remain Home Secretary, so she backed Cameron's side.

2. She wants to remain PM, so she has lied and done everything she could to remain PM for another month, another day, even another hour.

She pandered to the ERG, setting red lines that should never have been set.
She gave speeches from geographical places that were full of nonsense and waffle but no real substance. She appointed unsuitable people to high office - David Davis, Raab, BoJo, Gove, etc. She even called an election that backfired. She did a 'deal' with the DUP that she embarrassed the Queen because the opening of Parliament was delayed while it was renegotiated. She agreed the deal with Barnier and had to renege when she got a call from Arlene.

She has been open to humiliation time and time again, just so she can remain. She is totally unprincipled.

Joe_ Public

Eod100 wrote: »

I think the extension to A50 is a safety net for this but if a MV3 fails, I don't see how there could be a MV4. She seems to have annoyed a lot of people with her statement when she was trying to get MPS to change side.

I guess No Deal is default until otherwise decided so it's a it dicey alright.

But will there be extension if mv3 fails? Thought that was going to be the condition.

BobbyBobberson

I was watching Daily Politics earlier and when someone suggested that revoking Article 50 to which Andrew Neil replied, without any hint of irony, "that would make us look silly internationally".

He rightly got hammered for it with someone commenting "that ship sailed long ago".

Leroy42

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Yeah, that’s the Kyle Wilson document isn’t it? I had been very hopeful that we’d get a May deal passing with second referendum attachment scenario but vibes seem much less hopeful to me this morning. Lot can change as someone said above, of course. SNP are talking about a legal means of revoking, i believe, so could be something promising in that.

How would that work since TM has stated, and only requested, an extension to 30th June. Therefore no time for a ref on any deal.

The EU would then be in the position of having the UK as a member after the elections and then the deal is possibly defeated in a ref.

I still think too many people are trying to find too many ways out of the mess, but making up even messier ways.

It should be pretty simply. Crash out, TM Deal, or revoke. The EU, IMO, should not be giving any extensions except on a guaranteed promise of a certain outcome. The HoC saying they will hold a 2nd Ref, when neither of the two main parties stand for remain is a con job.

As well as the HoC and the UK having to face reality, I think the EU need to face up to it as well.

Eod100

Joe_ Public wrote: »

But will there be extension if mv3 fails? Thought that was going to be the condition.

Yeah think you're right actually.

Think even it it does fail there would have to be an extension to avoid no deal brexit but nothing official until after I guess

Joe_ Public

Leroy42 wrote: »

How would that work since TM has stated, and only requested, an extension to 30th June. Therefore no time for a ref on any deal.

The EU would then be in the position of having the UK as a member after the elections and then the deal is possibly defeated in a ref.

I still think too many people are trying to find too many ways out of the mess, but making up even messier ways.

It should be pretty simply. Crash out, TM Deal, or revoke. The EU, IMO, should not be giving any extensions except on a guaranteed promise of a certain outcome. The HoC saying they will hold a 2nd Ref, when neither of the two main parties stand for remain is a con job.

As well as the HoC and the UK having to face reality, I think the EU need to face up to it as well.

Well, I thought the clearest way for her to get her vote back on the table was by having the amendment with it, but obviously that was bit naive on my part, wishful thinking. It would need longer extension and her willful stubbornness seems dead set against that now. I guess we’d all like it to be simple, but it’s really anything but.

funkey_monkey

There was previously posted here a link to a graphic which showed how each MP voted over time and linked then to other similar voting MPs.

Does anyone remember where it was please?

Shelga

8 days to go, and there still isn’t even the vaguest idea of something that can garner a parliamentary majority. I really think it’s going to be no deal, by default, with a tiny chance article 50 is revoked at the last minute.

I couldn’t bring myself to vote for her deal if I was an MP.