Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

Shelga wrote: »

8 days to go, and there still isn’t even the vaguest idea of something that can garner a parliamentary majority. I really think it’s going to be no deal, by default, with a tiny chance article 50 is revoked at the last minute.

I couldn’t bring myself to vote for her deal if I was an MP.

But the MP's won't be simply considering her deal in isolation (which they have done up to this point).

A vote against her deal is effectively a vote for No Deal.

If you were an MP could you bring yourself to vote for a crash out?

ToBeFrank123

For all those Conservative MPs now whinging about TM as Prime Minister, where were they at the last leadership election?

They knew negotiating Brexit was the biggest poisoned chalice ever, so they decided to let her deal with it and then ditch her when all the dirty work was done. Its completely back-fired and its too late to change horses now mid race.

Seth Brundle

Two interesting media tweets, the first from Tony Connolly & RTE, the second from ther BBC with Farage talking his usual stuff and an exasperated Anna Soubry who doesn't have much time for Nigel...

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1108724157955612673


https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1108715679820087296

Leroy42

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

For all those Conservative MPs now whinging about TM as Prime Minister, where were they at the last leadership election?

They knew negotiating Brexit was the biggest poisoned chalice ever, so they decided to let her deal with it and then ditch her when all the dirty work was done. Its completely back-fired and its too late to change horses now mid race.

Sure, there is plenty of blame to go around.

But fundamentally, and it was shown in all its glory at her speech last night, TM is the fulcrum of this mess. She made the decisions, she made the u-turns, the red lines, she decided to side with the ERG.

All the others could, and should, have done others things, but at the end of the day she has consistently chosen herself and her party instead of the country and the truth.

Joe_ Public

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Two interesting media tweets, the first from Tony Connolly & RTE, the second from ther BBC with Farage talking his usual stuff and an exasperated Anna Soubry who doesn't have much time for Nigel...

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1108724157955612673


https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1108715679820087296

Saw that. Fair enough quip about the march but shouldn’t have allowed herself to get drawn into a slanging match with farage. Kind of thing he revels in. Don’t think she emerged all that well from it, Andrew Neil even had to cut her off at the end.

Hurrache

Macron has said today that if they deal next week is not voted for they won't be agreeing to a longer extension. I only caught the end of his interview so didn't get the question, so he's probably talking from the perspective of France, and possible others, but it looks like they're more than willing to veto any extension without the WA.

https://twitter.com/Stone_SkyNews/status/1108730681058869249

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1108731379586658305

MadYaker

How can there be so much public support for remaining in the EU and both the main parties still supporting brexit?

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

How would that work since TM has stated, and only requested, an extension to 30th June. Therefore no time for a ref on any deal.

It works like this: |The House of Commons passes the Kyle-Wilson amendment saying May's deal is approved if it is then sent for a referendum, options Remain or Leave with Mays deal.

May goes back to the EU and says please sir may I have a long delay. The EU says knock yourselves out, but you must run EU elections.

EU elections happen, referendum campaign happens, referendum happens and then either the referendum says No and Brexit is cancelled, or Yes and Brexit happens per the WA as negotiated (with a new date of whenever in 2020).

listermint

MadYaker wrote: »

How can there be so much public support for remaining in the EU and both the main parties still supporting brexit?

Because both parties have been taken over by hardliners of either extreme.

The lunatics are really in charge of the asylum

Shelga

Leroy42 wrote: »

But the MP's won't be simply considering her deal in isolation (which they have done up to this point).

A vote against her deal is effectively a vote for No Deal.

If you were an MP could you bring yourself to vote for a crash out?

Argh, I just don’t know. The deal is dire- if leaves the UK subservient to the EU’s desires, and is clearly so much worse than just remaining. It also doesn’t fundamentally solve anything- there is still no solution for how they can be out of the customs union, yet still have no hard border in Ireland, and no regulatory divergence between NI and GB. It just kicks the can further down the road, except now they won’t even be members.

I think I’d vote against it, and beg Tusk for a long extension in order to have a second referendum. Or pray for a last minute revocation.

Achernar

demfad wrote: »

Theresa May has whipped against ALL these other motions.
She is acting as if it's being a free vote of the HOC it's not.

Her vote has hammerred twice now. It is on her as PM to solve this. There are potential majorities to get a Bexit through but she is whipping against the alternatives.

Therefore the only possibility of an alternative getting through was a massive revolt of the conservative party.

They did it for the WA and it is up to her to adapt.

What she said yesterday about the Parliament was basically: Even though the Commons has dealt two historic Gov defeats on the biggest issue in a half decade they have not gone further an added more historic anti-Government defeats. Therefore it's all their fault. They should have done this.




People should also start to see the post-truth element of these 'Statements'.

When she is under pressure she goes through all the theatre of a dramatic announcement, gathers the UK or world media, projects the whole show of importance/decision but syas nothing or diverts with a new talking point (blames parliament).

All her Statements have been like this. All theatre, no substance.

US and UK are starting to resemble more and more the 'Surkovian' Russian model of the early 2000's.

You project democracy and democratic processes which become increasingly weak and fake as time goes on.
Like a movie set.

THe model is called 'sovereign democracy'.

It is perfect for disguising a drift to right wing authoritarianism.

Right wing authoritanarianism seems to be the model to resist a democratic response to oncoming global issues like inequality and climate change.

Absolutely.

The solutions to our planetary predicament (an existential, ecological catastrophe) must involve an acceptance of truly democratic, multilateral, rational, evidence-based and above all reality-based decision-making. What we are seeing now is a peculiar combination of mass propaganda facilitated by unregulated, corporatised social media forces - weaponised by dark actors - and the total collapse of conventional political power structures, most obvious in the those that are the most anachronistic and least resistant to corruption (the US and UK for example). I think the only way out is a complete renewal of our concept of democratic franchise, one that is more focussed on the needs of the future, including lowering the age of voting substantially, radical reform of political representation (e.g. abandoning FPTP, monarchy, unelected upper house, etc.), and legal recognition of common ownership and stewardship of the ecosphere. This cannot happen unless the forces of fascist fear and fence-building isolationism are confronted and demonstrated to be self-defeating and suicidal.

Trump / Brexit / Christchurch massacre... there’s a common thread of toxic aggression from a dying worldview of privileged exceptionalism. These high-pressure days of brinkmanship reveal the true leaders of the future, and my bet is on the likes of Jacinda Ardern, not Theresa May.

briany

Hurrache wrote: »

Macron has said today that if they deal next week is not voted for they won't be agreeing to a longer extension. I only caught the end of his interview so didn't get the question, so he's probably talking from the perspective of France, and possible others, but it looks like they're more than willing to veto any extension without the WA.

That means, then, that Farage is going to be on Sky News on no-deal Brexit day, shouting 'viva la France' just to add another surreal twist to this pantomime.

Eod100

Think Macron is just playing hardball.

Besides UK, no deal Brexit will be very serious for us. MPs are treating it as a bloody game, it's infuriating

prawnsambo

Petition to revoke article 50 has just crossed the million mark.

This is a handy site to look at the result without hammering the server: https://brexit-petitions-count.now.sh/

Laois_Man

Eod100 wrote: »

Think Macron is just playing hardball.

He really isn't you know!
He's worried about the possibility of the 'Frexit' movement growing in France and what the National Rally Party could do in the next elections. Brexit is stoking it up. He is genuinely anxious that it be ended!

ancapailldorcha

Laois_Man wrote: »

He really isn't you know!
He's worried about the possibility of the 'Frexit' movement growing in France and what the National Rally Party could do in the next elections. Brexit is stoking it up. He is genuinely anxious that it be ended!

I don't know. Brexit is shaping up to be the single best piece of pro-EU propaganda the most rabid Europhile could never have dreamed of.

I'd say he's just looking for a resolution to Brexit to end the uncertainty.

Eod100

prawnsambo wrote: »

Petition to revoke article 50 has just crossed the million mark.

This is a handy site to look at the result without hammering the server: https://brexit-petitions-count.now.sh/

I think anyone can sign it once they tick a box saying they're a British citizen and provide a UK postcode. Think it only needs to be considered for debate so likely to be rejected but interesting to see all the same!

For the future the EU will surely be looking to close off the loophole of unilateral withdrawal of Article 50. Would it take much to do it? Would anywhere besides Ireland have to have a referendum on change?

Enzokk

Eod100 wrote: »

I think anyone can sign it once they tick a box saying they're a British citizen and provide a UK postcode. Think it only needs to be considered for debate so likely to be rejected but interesting to see all the same!

That is true, the same for the petition about leaving without a deal. So you could be cynical and think there is a sustained effort to inflate the numbers for revoking article 50 but the same is not true for leaving without a deal.

I think it is more likely that remain would have a lead right now and people are upset and scared at leaving the EU and thus more vocal. I suspect the march for a people's vote will be quite big this weekend as well as a way for people to show their displeasure at parliament and the PM right now.

Purgative

Eod100 wrote: »

I think anyone can sign it once they tick a box saying they're a British citizen and provide a UK postcode. Think it only needs to be considered for debate so likely to be rejected but interesting to see all the same!

Irish postcode worked fine;)

First Up

The other 26 EU member states are not nearly as pre-occupied with Brexit as some here (and in Westminster) seem to think.

There may be some who hope it will all go away but most just want the UK to go away and let us get on with life without them.

robinph

Eod100 wrote: »

I think anyone can sign it once they tick a box saying they're a British citizen and provide a UK postcode. Think it only needs to be considered for debate so likely to be rejected but interesting to see all the same!

But the map showing where the various signatures have come from matches pretty close to major population centres and mirrors the remain/ leave maps. If there were major fiddling of the system going on then they would need to have a matching set of valid post codes for the whole country and be using them in a very sophisticated way to ensure they don't generate 10,000 signatures for W1A 1AA which would show up as the system being gamed quite easily.

Not that it is beyond the wit of a few dedicated nerds to do that, but they would need to have known how disastrous a speech May was about to give last night, and when, and had their data already mapped out against the previous polling data against post code data and ensuring that no code was used more than a couple of times and been ready to kick it off at the right moment last night.

I'm sure there will be a few people signing from overseas who don't have a vote using their friends postcodes or one for where they used to live, but the numbers will be insignificant or it would easily be spotted on the submissions.

Igotadose

prawnsambo wrote: »

Petition to revoke article 50 has just crossed the million mark.

This is a handy site to look at the result without hammering the server: https://brexit-petitions-count.now.sh/

Over a million, but the site's been crashing. And, various nobs in HMG are saying they're going to ignore it anyway (Leadsom, Hunt) though they're required to take it up in Parliament if it passes 100k votes (which it did).

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/article-50-petition-revoke-brexit-delay-theresa-may-deal-a8833681.html

prawnsambo

Eod100 wrote: »

I think anyone can sign it once they tick a box saying they're a British citizen and provide a UK postcode. Think it only needs to be considered for debate so likely to be rejected but interesting to see all the same!

At least one MP has tweeted that he'd bring it forward. Can't find the tweet now, but it was retweeted a lot about mid-day today.

Eod100

Would be a very short extension if it was this.. Maybe they just want it over once and for all by Easter.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1108751876009406464

robinph

Seen a few people post on twitter that the petition is being hammered by foreign bots after they took a glance at the country location data. Really it isn't. If there are 1000 signatures from people in France then that probably matches quite well with the ratio of people currently on holiday over there and just hoping that they have a country to come back to.

prawnsambo

robinph wrote: »

Seen a few people post on twitter that the petition is being hammered by foreign bots after they took a glance at the country location data. Really it isn't. If there are 1000 signatures from people in France then that probably matches quite well with the ratio of people currently on holiday over there and just hoping that they have a country to come back to.

Yeah. I had a look at the JSON data when it was around 540k and at most there were 20k non-UK votes. And this is only based on IPs. Lots of people use VPNs as well as UK citizens living, working and holidaying abroad.

Edit: And another look tells me that France and Spain are the highest at approx 8k and 4k respectively. Ireland at around 1.5k. Which is pretty reasonable imo. NI very slow on the uptake, no constituency much above 1% atm.

trellheim

OK

Gates as I see it that all have to pass through to get a deal

1. Bercow persuaded or overridden to force MV3 back on to next weeks business

2. HoC vote for the deal.

Sorry lads I just dont see it. I can see (1) but not (2) . Its no deal on the 29th I cant see anything else

BluePlanet

Personally i think it's No Deal.
For the reason that anything else requires back flipping and extraordinary movement.
While No Deal requires only the existing paralysis.

eire4

trellheim wrote: »

OK

Gates as I see it that all have to pass through to get a deal

1. Bercow persuaded or overridden to force MV3 back on to next weeks business

2. HoC vote for the deal.

Sorry lads I just dont see it. I can see (1) but not (2) . Its no deal on the 29th I cant see anything else

It really is looking like a no deal at this point. I mean they lost the last vote by 149 that is a heck of a lot of votes to flip by next week to pass the bill. I just do not see that happening. So it really looks like no deal to me.