Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

branie2

A no deal would be a disaster

trellheim

A no deal would be a disaster

Not in the brains of the headbangers who nearly have what they want. they can taste it at this stage. And they really exist and they really REALLY do think like that. After 1000 days of Brexit only 10 to go and they are out clean.

Duane Dibbley

David Davis, Boris Johnson and Dominic Rabb seem to be gone AWOL due to the EU not flinching.

josip

branie2 wrote: »

A no deal would be a disaster

Agreed, In the short term not pleasant.
But in the medium to long term, a no deal exit will be better than the UK remaining.

LeinsterDub

robinph wrote: »

Seen a few people post on twitter that the petition is being hammered by foreign bots after they took a glance at the country location data. Really it isn't. If there are 1000 signatures from people in France then that probably matches quite well with the ratio of people currently on holiday over there and just hoping that they have a country to come back to.

The irony i assume is completely lost on them that the Leave side cheated , lied and broke the law?

trellheim

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

David Davis, Boris Johnson and Dominic Rabb seem to be gone AWOL due to the EU not flinching.

Fully expect BoJo to pop up in a fortnight and claim the UK needs a fresh pair of hands .

Duane Dibbley

branie2 wrote: »

A no deal would be a disaster

True. But the sooner it happens, The sooner we can all implement the solutions.

Professor Moriarty

branie2 wrote: »

A no deal would be a disaster

Absolutely. The TUC and the CBI issued an unprecedented joint statement today:


We represent millions of workers and tens of thousands of businesses. It is on their behalf that we are writing to you to ask you to change your Brexit approach.

Our country is facing a national emergency. Decisions of recent days have caused the risk of no deal to soar. Firms and communities across the UK are not ready for this outcome. The shock to our economy would be felt by generations to come.

We ask you to take three steps to protect the jobs, rights and livelihoods of ordinary working people.

First, avoiding no deal is paramount. Businesses and employees alike need to see their government clearly acknowledge the reckless damage no deal would cause and recommit itself to avoiding this outcome.

Second, securing an extension has become essential. 88% of CBI members and a majority in parliament agree this is better than no deal. But at the same time an extension must genuinely allow a way forwards, and be long enough for a deal to be agreed.

Third, ‘the current deal or no deal’ must not be the only choice. A Plan B must be found - one that protects workers, the economy and an open Irish border, commands a parliamentary majority, and is negotiable with the EU. A new approach is needed to secure this – whether through indicative votes or another mechanism for compromise.

We cannot overstate the gravity of this crisis for firms and working people. We request an urgent meeting with you to discuss our concerns and hear your response.


No Brexiteer will heed this advice in any shape or form. Including May. They're whistling in the wind.

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

OK

Gates as I see it that all have to pass through to get a deal

1. Bercow persuaded or overridden to force MV3 back on to next weeks business

2. HoC vote for the deal.

Sorry lads I just dont see it. I can see (1) but not (2) . Its no deal on the 29th I cant see anything else

There's another option there. She goes back with her agreement and somebody amends it to include revocation of article 50 if it fails. That would get past Bercow.

Cryptopagan

Igotadose wrote: »

Over a million, but the site's been crashing. And, various nobs in HMG are saying they're going to ignore it anyway (Leadsom, Hunt) though they're required to take it up in Parliament if it passes 100k votes (which it did).

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/article-50-petition-revoke-brexit-delay-theresa-may-deal-a8833681.html

The requirement is that the Petitions Committee consider forwarding a petition for debate in Parliament if it reaches the 100k threshold.

Petitions very rarely act as a catalyst for change (the most successful e-petition thus far attracted 4m signatories and called for a second referendum if the first Brexit vote didn’t meet certain conditions for turnout and scale if victory....I’m sure this one will be equally successful).

briany

prawnsambo wrote: »

There's another option there. She goes back with her agreement and somebody amends it to include revocation of article 50 if it fails. That would get past Bercow.

But would it get past parliament? I mean I think there are more MPs who would like to revoke, but I don't know if there are enough with the guts to do it of their own accord. The only thing they fear more than a no deal is losing their seat.

Cryptopagan

prawnsambo wrote: »

There's another option there. She goes back with her agreement and somebody amends it to include revocation of article 50 if it fails. That would get past Bercow.

No it wouldn’t: that’s an either/or proposition.

Anteayer

It's basically a political system that's been hijacked. They gave permission (having been duped) for this to happen and now the parliamentary system seems to be incapable of stopping it.

As long as a hard Brexit is a possibility, there's a will in parliament to cause that to happen.

Eod100

Think tweets 3 and 4 important here: https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1108737173531041793?s=19

robinph

trellheim wrote: »

Fully expect BoJo to pop up in a fortnight and claim the UK needs a fresh pair of hands .

They were making a point in the breakfast news today that he unusually hopped straight on his bike and sped away from reporters waiting for him to leave home this morning. Normally they would get some nugget of him waffling about something before he rode away.

Cryptopagan

briany wrote: »

But would it get past parliament? I mean I think there are more MPs who would like to revoke, but I don't know if there are enough with the guts to do it of their own accord. The only thing they fear more than a no deal is losing their seat.

It wouldn’t even get before parliament, because it’s an incoherent proposition. You’d be asking MPs to vote for or against May’s deal and for or against revoking Article 50 if May’s deal doesn’t pass.

Anteayer

I think while the statement from the CBI and TUC is helpful, it's far far far far too late. Why weren't they saying this 1 or 2 years ago?

9 days before the deadline and they're suddenly waking up - wow!

The business community and others have sat in silence, afraid of PR damage or something should they become involved. In the meantime their trading environment has been ripped asunder and pulled out from under them.

They seemed terrified to make any kind of statements contrary to dogma as the Leave side had practically made any contradictory statements against that referendum / plebiscite into heresy against Brexit and a thought crime against the people's will.

It's an utter indictment of the entire UK political system, including the non elected societal bits. The country has been dragged into a totally disasterous position because of pandering to tabloids and extremist views and seeing political argument as infotainment.

It also shows that the British business community and trade unions no longer have any political influence.

prawnsambo

Cryptopagan wrote: »

It wouldn’t even get before parliament, because it’s an incoherent proposition. You’d be asking MPs to vote for or against May’s deal and for or against revoking Article 50 if May’s deal doesn’t pass.

Isn't that exactly like the sequence of votes last week? Her deal, no 'no deal' and A50 extension.

Lemming

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

David Davis, Boris Johnson and Dominic Rabb seem to be gone AWOL due to the EU not flinching.

They're off trying to keep their heads below the parapet in the hopes that if (when) it all goes catastrophically wrong the memories of their appalling behaviour thus far is eclipsed by attention diverted onto others. Hence Bojo's ill-judged comments 'spaffed' up against the proverbial wall on something he believed to be an easy target for subject completely unrelated to Brexit.

In short, cowards.

upupup

Every one is afraid to say the word "revoke" as it may be political suicide so its understandable.A (very) long extension may be the way to disguise "revoke".
So I think it will go to the 11th hour and may writes a letter for a long extension or revoke and resigns.We then begin again with all lessons learnt on both sides and a greater understanding of the problems that need sorting.
Brexit 2021 is a success or a Large majority votes to remain

Cryptopagan

prawnsambo wrote: »

Isn't that exactly like the sequence of votes last week? Her deal, no 'no deal' and A50 extension.

You could have separate votes on those things, but you couldn’t include one as an amendment to one of the others, because they are mutually exclusive. Say that you want parliament to pass A, but it already voted against the A Act last week. So you amend the A Act, and now it says that in the event A doesn’t pass, then B. Now the A Act has an amendment saying what happens if the A Act doesn’t pass parliament, which makes no sense, since the only way for the B amendment to pass is for A to pass, and all the B amendment does is outline what happens if A doesn’t pass.

Infini

Anteayer wrote: »

I think while the statement from the CBI and TUC is helpful, it's far far far far too late. Why weren't they saying this 1 or 2 years ago?

9 days before the deadline and they're suddenly waking up - wow!

The business community and others have sat in silence, afraid of PR damage or something should they become involved. In the meantime their trading environment has been ripped asunder and pulled out from under them.

They seemed terrified to make any kind of statements contrary to dogma as the Leave side had practically made any contradictory statements against that referendum / plebiscite into heresy against Brexit and a thought crime against the people's will.

It's an utter indictment of the entire UK political system, including the non elected societal bits. The country has been dragged into a totally disasterous position because of pandering to tabloids and extremist views and seeing political argument as infotainment.

It also shows that the British business community and trade unions no longer have any political influence.

I dont think they're too late there have been those voicing these concerns for some time but I dont think many truly believed the British Government were stupid enough to actually go through with no deal. Neither were they truly aware or were willing to consider the EU would truly allow them to crash out.

The simple truth is were entering the endgame of this farce there can be no continuing of MV3/4/5 etc (they arent even meaningful theyre do it or else votes). The simple truth is that if the British dont want to crash out someone there has to show leadership and be prepared to table an A50 withdrawal at some point. Wether they pass it or not I dont know but honestly it has a better chance of passing than the WA at this point and it doesnt have the same level of costs to them. I dont see Mays deal passing its got too much opposition and Mays little rant Im pretty sure has done plenty to sink it.

What will it take I wonder, will a run on the pound happen sometime next week? What will the EU ultimately say over this, they might give some extra time though not much, what happens if Parliment passes A50 and May refuses them, will the EU give the HoC time to remove her in those circumstances.

Professor Moriarty

Anteayer wrote: »

I think while the statement from the CBI and TUC is helpful, it's far far far far too late. Why weren't they saying this 1 or 2 years ago?

9 days before the deadline and they're suddenly waking up - wow!

The business community and others have sat in silence, afraid of PR damage or something should they become involved. In the meantime their trading environment has been ripped asunder and pulled out from under them.

They seemed terrified to make any kind of statements contrary to dogma as the Leave side had practically made any contradictory statements against that referendum / plebiscite into heresy against Brexit and a thought crime against the people's will.

It's an utter indictment of the entire UK political system, including the non elected societal bits. The country has been dragged into a totally disasterous position because of pandering to tabloids and extremist views and seeing political argument as infotainment.

It also shows that the British business community and trade unions no longer have any political influence.

Whatever about the TUC, the CBI have been warning about a hard Brexit since the referendum.

ancapailldorcha

I would hope that the TUC have been lobbying the Labour party hard since the referendum result.

Enzokk

Eod100 wrote: »

Think tweets 3 and 4 important here: https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1108737173531041793?s=19

"NB It's not just the PM who makes #Brexit statements to the cameras here with the audience back home in mind. EU leaders do that too. Worth bearing in mind when listening to their forthright #Brexit statements on their way in to the summit building today /4"

What I don't understand is if statements made beforehand is for local consumption, surely if you turn around and go against what you said 8 hours before it will be noticed by the local media?

I get what she is saying but it doesn't make sense unless you want to be known as a politician that doesn't keep to their word. I think the journalist is more likely trying to project a outcome on what they have been predicting all along. She has been big on the fact that the EU always compromises at the last moment and it sure looks like she doesn't know as much as she thinks she does as this hasn't happened.

Shelga

I hope MPs are painfully aware of the fact that in 8 days time, they lose control of their country completely. My understanding is that they cannot unilaterally revoke article 50 once they are into any extension period, can someone clarify? So their own national fate is completely out of their hands then. A dire position in which to find themselves.

If I was May, I would take accountability and revoke, come what May. (:D) This has been a complete and utter disaster, and she has shown comprehensively that the Tories cannot be trusted to lead the country now, never mind in the post-No Deal wilderness.

Sadly, I don’t think she would countenance doing that in a million years, and the UK will be crashing out next week. Shameful.

trellheim

Q: Assume I am Teresa May and I march into the HoC

"Mr Speaker ! I move that this House votes to Revoke Article 50".

Do I get a majority ?

I do not think so.

Anteayer

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Whatever about the TUC, the CBI have been warning about a hard Brexit since the referendum.

Not nearly hard enough though.
Most businesses have avoided taking sides in this and have kept out of political debate when they should have been shouting from the rooftops.

Where were all the CBI and industry representatives on TV debates? Why aren't they on the news channels every night?

We should be sick of hearing from them at this stage.

Can you imagine if the Irish government pulled a stunt like this?!

trellheim

Most businesses have avoided taking sides in this and have kept out of political debate when they should have been shouting from the rooftops.

Where were all the CBI and industry representatives on TV debates? Why aren't they on the news channels every night?

Because a near-universal doom and gloom doesnt play well they get enough from the remainer pols, instead they get idiots like Dyson on and claim "balance" is needed.

Joe_ Public

Anteayer wrote: »

Not nearly hard enough though.
Most businesses have avoided taking sides in this and have kept out of political debate when they should have been shouting from the rooftops.

Where were all the CBI and industry representatives on TV debates? Why aren't they on the news channels every night?

We should be sick of hearing from them at this stage.

Can you imagine if the Irish government pulled a stunt like this?!

I’ve certainly seen a lot of Carolyn Fairnbairn on tv over the last few months, usually getting drowned out by leavers droning on about democracy and the will of the people. I take your point but don’t think they are the right targets for blame here, there were plenty of enough warnings but people in many cases gonna hear what they want to hear.