Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Itssoeasy

jasper100 wrote: »

This is what SKy corresondant Lewis Goodall thinks might happen


MV3 doesn’t pass (or is never even brought)
-PM takes us towards no deal.
-confidence vote, Tory remainers abstain or vote against
-govt falls, Queen calls for Corbyn
-Corbyn becomes PM. This all happens with so little time to spare he revokes A50.



Its quite a plausible outcome right now. Seems to be no deal crash out or this.

Doesn't seem likely her deal will pass given she has been told she can't bring it to another vote and its not even looking good for her to have the numbers to get the vote passed.

So, a vote of confidence lose would mean a FF-labour scenario here in the mid nineties where labour left the government and FG took over without an Election ? Jesus that's an awful lot of things to happen in a short space of time. So, the numbers must add up to 318( I think that's a majority in the HoC) for Labour and a motley Crue of MPs then ?

Itssoeasy

jasper100 wrote: »

How so, seeing as parliament have voted against no deal?

The only options are either accept the deal or revoke?

No deal is the default position if there is no deal passed and A50 is not revoked.

Cosmo Kramer

Is Tony going to follow up his bombshell tweet or is he just leaving it hanging there for the craic?!

Blowfish

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1108800898027929602

That wouldn't suprise me, May 22nd leaves the EU open to the issue of the extension happening, then the UK withdrawing A50 on May 21st which would cause huge issues as there wouldn't be enough time for the UK to elect MEP's.

I'd imagine there's a few on the council that would only agree to max April 18th.

UsedToWait

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1108800898027929602

BBC reduced to reporting on Tony's reporting.
How sad to see the BBC reduced to the lightweight journalism of Adler and Keunsberg..

MrMusician18

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Is Tony going to follow up his bombshell tweet or is he just leaving it hanging there for the craic?!

Tony really has the direct line, he may as well be in the room.

I hope he buys the Irish officials that are feeding him info a few pints. They've done wonders for his career!

Shelga

Still unclear what the process for revoking is- can May do it unilaterally?- or does she need the support of her government or parliament?

If she can do it on her own, she could decide to do what’s best for her country by announcing she is revoking article 50 and resigning as PM, as she has failed to achieve Brexit. Then she could just go retire somewhere and disappear from public life, with beefed up security! But she saves MPs from having to take most of the blame for revoking.

I know she won’t do this though, even if it were possible. She’d rather crash out than revoke.

jasper100

Blowfish wrote: »

That wouldn't suprise me, May 22nd leaves the EU open to the issue of the extension happening, then the UK withdrawing A50 on May 21st which would cause huge issues as there wouldn't be enough time for the UK to elect MEP's.

I'd imagine there's a few that would only agree to April 18th.

The extension is only if a deal is passes parliament next week, so there would be no option to revoke A50 (I think)

Hurrache

UsedToWait wrote: »

BBC reduced to reporting on Tony's reporting.
How sad to see the BBC reduced to the lightweight journalism of Adler and Keunsberg..

They've been getting quite snarky about hearing UK related news via Irish officials and media outlets.

It's all go
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1108803953897148416?s=19

prunudo

Does the Queen have any sway or power to prevent a no deal crash out. Is it possible that she could pull the plug on parliament before her country implodes. I know this probably raises questions about interference in democracy but the houses of commons aren't exactly doing themselves any favours at present.

Seth Brundle

Wasn't no deal meant to be better than a bad deal?

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1108782228375568384?s=19

Blowfish

jasper100 wrote: »

The extension is only if a deal is passes parliament next week, so there would be no option to revoke A50 (I think)

Don't forget that the WA still has to go to the HoL, so still runs a risk of being shot down prior to being signed in fully.

Inquitus

It seems they want enough time for the UK to put election plans in place if May falls, and rightly so, May 22nd just delays the cliff edge, much like June 30th does.

https://twitter.com/aqbyrne/status/1108803821818531844

MrMusician18

Could we see the reality of no deal tonight? Each tweet I see from European journos keeps suggesting shorter and shorter extensions. We're now down to 11 April.

Surely that's not enough time to get all the law through the commons? I wonder do the leaders want to precipitate a real crisis to focus minds while there's still time?

Seth Brundle

Bloomberg is reporting on a potential 9 month delay. How would that pan out in terms of the elections?

ancapailldorcha

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Bloomberg is reporting on a potential 9 month delay. How would that Labour in terms of the elections?

We'd have to contest them. 22 May is the limit.

badtoro

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Is Tony going to follow up his bombshell tweet or is he just leaving it hanging there for the craic?!

I heard April 11th mentioned on the radio

Itssoeasy

Blowfish wrote: »

Don't forget that the WA still has to go to the HoL, so still runs a risk of being shot down prior to being signed in fully.

The House of Lords can't shoot down a bill in parliament anymore. They can delay it but not stop it. They had their cough severely softened over a century ago.

jasper100

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

We'd have to contest them. 22 May is the limit.

Contesting the European elections is surely a minor issue. The UK would be voting lame duck MEPS but so what? 5 years on the gravy train for whoever gets it. A non issue in the grand scheme of things?

Blowfish

jasper100 wrote: »

Contesting the European elections is surely a minor issue. The UK would be voting lame duck MEPS but so what? 5 years on the gravy train for whoever gets it. A non issue in the grand scheme of things?

It's not a non issue when some of the seats have already been allocated to other countries, Ireland is gaining 2.

Seth Brundle

Here's Tony with the news...

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1108806051946790917?s=19

jasper100

Blowfish wrote: »

It's not a non issue when some of the seats have already been allocated to other countries, Ireland is gaining 2.

Yes but that can wait until 5 years time. If the UK revoke article 50 next week our number of seats stays the same.

In the grand scheme of things, contesting the EU elections, or not, is way down the list here.

Hurrache

Another evening of madness.

It was quite funny the anchor on Sky News opening by saying that for once May gets her "accoutrements" I'm sure she said, only to then run with the new dates upon the ending of the summary as to what's coming up on the show.

Water John

We really have to wait as what we are getting are different POV at the meeting. May be two options, very short for her to pass HOC next week. Since the EU leaders don't believe she will succeed they may be already stitching in a long ext option.
Why would they come back especially for the UK next week?

Capt'n Midnight

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Given how the lords has been acting the last 3 years which has been one of somewhat of a brake on the madness of the HOC the lord's will be all over any revocation or deal vote. No doubt about it.

Thanks to the Parliament Act the Lords can only delay stuff.

And the Salisbury Convention means they can't really do that either without breaking a recent tradition.

Hurrache

Hurrache wrote: »

They've been getting quite snarky about hearing UK related news via Irish officials and media outlets.

Ha ha, now Channel 4 news mentioning what they've been hearing from the Irish Times.

RickBlaine

Press conference will probably be delayed a while

MrMusician18

Hurrache wrote: »

Ha ha, now Channel 4 news mentioning what they've been hearing from the Irish Times.

Reminds me of our own crisis during the bailout when we needed foreign media for the truth.

This is slightly different now if course - just like the UK government, the UK media are outsiders now in the EU.

Capt'n Midnight

jasper100 wrote: »

Contesting the European elections is surely a minor issue. The UK would be voting lame duck MEPS but so what? 5 years on the gravy train for whoever gets it. A non issue in the grand scheme of things?

The Tories don't want to run that election campaign.

ASOT

Could be May 7th

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1108808182816821249?s=09