Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

jasper100

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The Tories don't want to run that election campaign.

Good for them. Its still a minor issue in the grand scheme of things at the moment though.

Inquitus

This makes some sense:

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1108809672373489665

lawred2

jasper100 wrote: »

Good for them. Its still a minor issue in the grand scheme of things at the moment though.

It's not minor really. The UK votes were to be shared out and elections run off for them.

The UK taking part in these elections when those candidates will be relinquishing those seats only a few weeks later adds another farce to the already gigantic list of Brexit related farces.

Itssoeasy

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Thanks to the Parliament Act the Lords can only delay stuff.

And the Salisbury Convention means they can't really do that either without breaking a recent tradition.

Was that act passed because of home rule back in the day ? Or am I getting that wrong ? I've 1908 in my head for when their powers were curtailed.

Hurrache

I'm picturing everyone in the press box trying to cog off Tony and Tony is there elbows up and wide with his tweet machine inside his suit jacket.

An Ciarraioch

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Was that act passed because of home rule back in the day ? Or am I getting that wrong ? I've 1908 in my head for when their powers were curtailed.

Not quite - Lloyd George was Chancellor, and his "People's Budget", which introduced old age pensions, was blocked by the Lords, so he threatened to create hundreds of peers if they didn't accept the act limiting their powers.

joe40

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Was that act passed because of home rule back in the day ? Or am I getting that wrong ? I've 1908 in my head for when their powers were curtailed.

Not quite - Lloyd George was Chancellor, and his "People's Budget", which introduced old age pensions, was blocked by the Lords, so he threatened to create hundreds of peers if they didn't accept the act limiting their powers.

Did you just know that off the top of your head, no sneaky googling?
Impressive knowledge there.

Water John

The thinking in the room seems to revolve around their view that Mv3 hasn't a hope, esp after TMs outburst last night.
So they are no longer helping her with her vote next week, and are discussing a longer ext which TM didn't ask for. Her stalling them for 90 mins didn't also help.

An Ciarraioch

joe40 wrote: »

Did you just know that off the top of your head, no sneaky googling?
Impressive knowledge there.

To be fair, he was partially right - comes up when the Third Home Rule Bill is mentioned as to why it wasn't blocked.

UsedToWait

joe40 wrote: »

Did you just know that off the top of your head, no sneaky googling?
Impressive knowledge there.

I never cease to be amazed with the level of knowledge and the ability to contextualise and explain the issues shown by many of the regulars on this thread.

Some, if not already, should be journalists (if that were a worthwhile occupation these days)
..(Perigrinus, ancapailldorcha and many more)..

An Ciarraioch

Appears the Taoiseach has helped persuade EU leaders to make the extension unconditional, rather than linking it directly to MV3:

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-summit-live-blog-march-2019/

ShooterSF

Water John wrote: »

The thinking in the room seems to revolve around their view that Mv3 hasn't a hope, esp after TMs outburst last night.
So they are no longer helping her with her vote next week, and are discussing a longer ext which TM didn't ask for. Her stalling them for 90 mins didn't also help.

I can't see how the EU will refuse a short extension without her deal passing but are happy to offer a longer one she doesn't want or has any plans for. I expect that absurdity from their side not ours.

jasper100

Sounds like the can is being kicked down the road, again, indefinately.

So, mv3 expected to fail, TM will surely resign, possibly a GE after that and the whole circus starts again.

FrancieBrady

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Appears the Taoiseach has helped persuade EU leaders to make the extension unconditional, rather than linking it directly to MV3:

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-summit-live-blog-march-2019/

Macron's proposal according to C4. Thanks Leo for helping in prolonging this!

Water John

They will offer her what suits them not what TM thinks she wants. They simply don't respect her. None of them would run their own Govn't in the way she has ran hers. They would have built a coalitions both in Govn't and on this issue. Seek out alliances and common interest.

Ha, that might be one way to get her attention, letting her hungry, not invited to dinner by the 27.

Inquitus

Guess which paper

https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1108813095747702784

Hurrache

Inquitus wrote: »

Guess which paper

https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1108813095747702784

Ha, disharmony over how many coals to drag the UK through is not exactly a good thing for them.

lawred2

Inquitus wrote: »

Guess which paper

https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1108813095747702784

Not sure if this lad is sarcastic or not

https://twitter.com/NikkoSimmo/status/1108819684655276032?s=19

An Ciarraioch

For a diplomatic dinner, the starter and main course wouldn't exactly have someone licking their lips:

http://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1108821605952749568

Capt'n Midnight

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Bloomberg is reporting on a potential 9 month delay. How would that pan out in terms of the elections?

October is when the new commission is elected. So the EU rightly don't want the UK faffing about all through that and then leaving just before Christmas. So a long extension beyond the elections may be an alternative, long enough to provide stability.


http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/elections-press-kit/0/key-dates-ahead

Like I said before the UK tax year ends in April but for foreign owned businesses the parent company tax year matches the calendar year. Good luck getting a bigger budget approved by head office then.

Itssoeasy

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

To be fair, he was partially right - comes up when the Third Home Rule Bill is mentioned as to why it wasn't blocked.

Yeah probably why it stuck in my head about home rule and the House of Lords(or house of Peers as it's also known as) and I was out on the date. I said 1908 when it was 1911.

4068ac1elhodqr

The tabloids report 3,500 troops have been made available (by the head honchos hiding out in a nuc shelter, hundreds of feet below ground),
- all for use at 24hr notice from Monday (operation redfold), in the event of heading towards Friday with non-deal.

Let's hope they'll all got (unrestricted) 50cc mopeds with box on the back to distrute batch loafs and pints of milk up and down the M6, to 27.2m households.

Capt'n Midnight

Inquitus wrote: »

Guess which paper

https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1108813095747702784

Is this in the context that other than having the WA signed this week,
any interaction with the EU after 29th will require all 27 to agree ?

banie01

UK are in an incredibly weak position IMO.
The goodwill of the EU is vital to allow them an extension...
And tbh the actions of the UK media, brexiteers and TM's inability to take a hard position on anything has hugely eroded that goodwill.

The extension was signalled clearly by the EU as not being possible beyond May 22nd...
UK ignores that in the hope that the technicality of the EU parliament not sit sitting until July 1st would allow it.

Expert attempt at can kicking again by the UK!

Negotiating IMO has to be on the basis of good faith, the UK have repeatedly shown that they lack that.

My own opinion of Brexiteers and Brexit in general is that the electorate was sold a pup.
Promises were made that are impossible to keep.
An actual path out for the UK, that isn't likely a possibility with May as PM would be to go back to the people with a choice of TM's deal, No deal or remain.
Now that the consequence of each is a much more known quantity it will allow an informed plebiscite.

PokeHerKing

I really hope the earlier reporting of 22 of May on condition of WA being accepted is what the EU go with.

Anything else looks weak imo and will only embolden the current mix of inaction and rhetoric from UK MPs

marno21

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

For a diplomatic dinner, the starter and main course wouldn't exactly have someone licking their lips:

http://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1108821605952749568

Green and orange.

Is the menu painted on tricolour paper too?

theguzman

It is playing out perfectly, the Conservatives have done what they always intended, they have allowed the EU to back them into a corner and can now blame the EU for a hard Brexit and the small amount of short term pain it will cause. I just hope Salvini and the Visegrad group rides to the Rescue and veteos any extension. A hard Brexit will be a great day for Europe and it will show the EU that they will be defeated and national Sovereignty is far more important than German rule.

FrancieBrady

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I really hope the earlier reporting of 22 of May on condition of WA being accepted is what the EU go with.

Anything else looks weak imo and will only embolden the current mix of inaction and rhetoric from UK MPs

The more the EU give the more of a mess they get into tbh.

Water John

The one thing we do know is that the EU will this evening come to a common decision. amazing considering it's 27 different national interests.
Maybe the UK should look at how it's done.

Amalgam

Anyone get the feeling that certain political groups in the UK would love to be 'seen' to be 'kicked out' by the EU at the very last moment?

I loathe to think of the years and years of dregs journalism various media outlets will get out of spinning a ficticious and dangerous narrative out of something like this.