Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo

Peston has some ideas on what's being planned. Not good for TM if true.

An Ciarraioch

Groan - Politico claim we're back to the start, but with the April 11th European election deadline thrown in:

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-summit-live-blog-march-2019/

Inquitus

biggebruv wrote: »

https://www.joe.ie/news/ireland-losses-brexit-662740

Is this a scare mongering article or is this potentially gonna happen? I can’t keep up with this stufff it’s gone on so long now lol

I don't think anyone can predict the impacts, we have shifted trade away from the UK in significant amounts since the Brexit vote, and no doubt will continue to accelerate this in the event of no deal. We also stand to pick up investment and jobs as the only remaining Engish speaking country in the EU. We will lose some, we will win some, and trying to quantify it is impossible. That said, it is definitely a negative development and in the short term it will impact us. When you compare to how much the recession cost each of us however, it will be small beans.

It's also worth noting it is still all up in the air and anything could happen.

jimwallace197

biggebruv wrote: »

https://www.joe.ie/news/ireland-losses-brexit-662740

Is this a scare mongering article or is this potentially gonna happen? I can’t keep up with this stufff it’s gone on so long now lol

726 euros a year, 61 euros a month, I don’t think a lot of Irish people will be losing sleep over that

Headshot

This is brilliant tv but it really pisses me off in one way that brexit is tying up vital discussions on other topics in Europe.

The EU has to bloody fix UK's mess

gimli2112

devnull wrote: »

If you've learnt anything over the last few months, you'd have learnt that the BBC essentially has become state TV sucking up to the government line and TM and is incapable of reporting properly on Brexit.

Also, it's a bit ironic that she thinks the EU are taking a long time to make a decision when they are doing it over the course of a day, when the UK has spent 1000 of them to get pretty much nowhere.

one of them said earlier something like you only have to look at how the EU won't negotiate on the withdrawal agreement, the UK can only do so much

road_high

It’s an opportunity to orientate our economy more away from the unstable Uk. The sterling volatility has been a problem long before brexit in any case

Inquitus

This seems a decent conclusion if true. Keep the boot on their neck, but offer a way out for the HoC if the WA is rejected.

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1108840552722849793

bilston

Seems like the extension to the 22nd May will, as expected be dependent on May getting her deal through

Failing that an extension until 12th April to give the UK to propose a way forward.

Seems a sensible and grown up approach from the EU who seemingly are doing May's job for her.

So no crash out next Friday anyway.

LuckyLloyd

prawnsambo wrote: »

Peston has some ideas on what's being planned. Not good for TM if true.

Please please please please be this

jasper100

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RickBlaine wrote: »

I would imagine the EU leaders are acting under the assumption that it is very likely May won't be PM for much longer.

If she doesnt get her mv3 passed next week she will surely be toast. The eu seem to have walked her into the ground tonight.

Last night she tried to put a gun to mps to vote with her next week, now the eu have said if mv3 is not passed we can try something else.

Takes the pressure off holding mv3 at all or mps feeling they have to vote for it.

So no mv3 passed next week, tm resigns and something else happens.

Thats my guess anyway.

joe40

jimwallace197 wrote: »

biggebruv wrote: »

https://www.joe.ie/news/ireland-losses-brexit-662740

Is this a scare mongering article or is this potentially gonna happen? I can’t keep up with this stufff it’s gone on so long now lol

726 euros a year, 61 euros a month, I don’t think a lot of Irish people will be losing sleep over that

God, if I got away with a no deal brexit costing me 720 euro a year I would be delighted.

FrancieBrady

Question Time will be a bit moot, which is a pity. I would expect the DUP would be foaming at the mouth because the EU was dictating and 'bullying'.

road_high

Can’t see the MV3 vote passing. If anything it could be worse- “how dare the EU tell us what to do...blabla..”
after that who knows

MrMusician18

jimwallace197 wrote: »

726 euros a year, 61 euros a month, I don’t think a lot of Irish people will be losing sleep over that

Thats an average. It means It meant that the toll will be much lighter for some but extremely heavy for others. And for others, read those in agriculture, in particular.

Laois_Man

jasper100 wrote: »

tm resigns and something else happens.

You have to also acknowledge the complete lack of competence throughout the Tory party though - the end of Teresa May could easily herald the beginning of something even worse.....unbelievably!

Infini

My guess is that considering the fact PM Mayday has no plan, no common sense, no dignity and no integrity to call it quits the EU are going to try and draw this out and focus on the HoC and see what they can do. A few extra weeks of delay's works fine for the EU as it allows additional time to prepare on their end but they can also put pressure on May and the rest by laying out ways for them to have an extention and at the same time be prepared to cut them loose as necessary

1) Want to stay inside the EU past April 11th? Contest the EU parlimentary elections or be dismissed
2) Want longer than that? Stay the rest of the year and get yourself sorted rather than make a mess.

My guess is they know May is both incompetent and a lame duck, they can box her in by making sure that if she insist's on something like refusing to take part in the EU elections Britain will crash out and it will be by her choice. Firmly puts any blame on her and her ilk in that event. May likes to play for time but this could actually backfire on her as eventually Parliament may vote no confidence after a 3rd vote fails again and a General Election occurs, the conservatives may win but Labour could easily claw enough seats from them that it could result in a Hung Parliment and Labour could get in with SNP support (for a 2nd indyref of course). The added bonus of this is that it flushes the Dumbáss Unionist Party down the sink removing their toxic influence. Some say the conservatives wont vote for a GE but remember that they can't get rid of May internally.

Regardless were at the point where the UK can drop out of the EU at its own peril, if they don't want a crash out the EU is clear on what the conditions will be and if they don't follow the rules they're out by their own choice not because the EU kicked them out.

Mr.Nice Guy

Looks like the show will be rolling into April at least.

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1108846095558471680

boggerman1

The big bad EU bullying poor England according to some on British media.delusional fools

LeinsterDub

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/tom-swarbrick/solution-post-brexit-irish-border-problem-invade/

While the UK and EU are wasting time over deadlines this genius of a caller to LBC has only gone and solved it.


Jesus wept and that mans stupidity

Itssoeasy

Just saw some footage from the EU summit of Theresa May greeting one of the other leaders and the body language from her was telling. She gave the head tilt as if she was at a funeral and saying to the family member of the deseased "I know sure it was unexpected." She's got herself into this mess. Why does she appear to have a look of her deal being rejected twice came as a shock ?

road_high

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/tom-swarbrick/solution-post-brexit-irish-border-problem-invade/

While the UK and EU are wasting time over deadlines this genius of a caller to LBC has only gone and solved it.


Jesus wept and that mans stupidity

I suppose that’s what they used do in the past so still hangover going on in their little heads

Capt'n Midnight

jimwallace197 wrote: »

726 euros a year, 61 euros a month, I don’t think a lot of Irish people will be losing sleep over that

Meanwhile, Ireland would face a loss €3.5 billion each year which works out €726 per head. Really bad journalism, it doesn't work that way.


TBH I'd be expecting a Hard Brexit to take away a year's growth so this is actually fantastic news if true as it's only about 90 days of our economic growth.


Our GDP was €294bn in 2017 and that's the revised down GDP. So it's about 1% hit to GDP.
But our GDP is growing by over 4% a year so doesn't mean we go backwards, it's a big speedbump.



For NI it's a decade of lost growth, for GB its about three years loss of growth.

RickBlaine

Assuming TM is a goner by end of next week, I expect parliament to take control of the proceedings rather than leave it in the hands of another PM.

Infini

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/tom-swarbrick/solution-post-brexit-irish-border-problem-invade/

While the UK and EU are wasting time over deadlines this genius of a caller to LBC has only gone and solved it.


Jesus wept and that mans stupidity

Welcome to the United Memedom: The gift that keeps on giving!

Also fails the irony test: Yes invade our little country when all you have to do is give back that little bit of land up in that corner and all your land border problems go away!

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Looks like the show will be rolling into April at least.

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1108846095558471680

It was getting to the stage wether it was either the UK crashes out by accident so at least by drawing it out a bit while they got the room to do so on the EU side they can play May at her own game at least till it gets to the point they HAVE to be kicked out.

Itssoeasy

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/tom-swarbrick/solution-post-brexit-irish-border-problem-invade/

While the UK and EU are wasting time over deadlines this genius of a caller to LBC has only gone and solved it.


Jesus wept and that mans stupidity

LD I'd like to thank you on behalf of my brain for making it hurt. The guy who wants to invade us AGAIN sounds like Alf garnett come back to life.

Water John

When one talks of humiliation, this has gone a lot further. The other leaders having to step in a help the UK make choices. In effect, telling the PM how to go through this, step by step.

Calltocall

Just watching live coverage of eu summit and the line from EU sources is that their view is that Ms May is at a point that she is accepting there will be no deal and that she appears to not care if there is a no deal exit, unbelievable

An Ciarraioch

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Just saw some footage from the EU summit of Theresa May greeting one of the other leaders and the body language from her was telling. She gave the head tilt as if she was at a funeral and saying to the family member of the deseased "I know sure it was unexpected." She's got herself into this mess. Why does she appear to have a look of her deal being rejected twice came as a shock ?

http://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1108830556178079750

hotmail.com

RickBlaine wrote:

Assuming TM is a goner by end of next week, I expect parliament to take control of the proceedings rather than leave it in the hands of another PM.

Parliament can't take control. The government is in control of making laws. Parliament approves or rejects them.