Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Water John

Now May and the UK owns No Deal if that comes about on the 12th April.

dresden8

Headshot wrote: »

Yup I think the EU played a blinder here

They cannot be blamed for a no deal brexit and it's all in the UK's lap if they want a deal or not

What's this blame crap? It's meaningless.

The Telegraph is never going to turn around and say "You know what, we were wrong all along."

Anteayer

The EU's only objective is to get this over and done with without undermining the EU and its members. That doesn’t mean that the UK gets a particularly wonderful deal, but it does mean that the aim is that it withdraws in an orderly manner without causing turmoil.

Form an Irish point of view, having the UK just crash out in a ranting and raving self harm kind of episode is absolutely not a good scenario for us. However having them managed out isn’t the worst outcome as we end up with significant advantages as the English speaking gateway to Europe.

I mean I think we are all fed up with them and would love to see them eat humble pie but at the same time having a UK in complete meltdown isn’t really a great outcome either.

They’re not going to “win” any more than a spoiled toddler does on an episode of Super Nanny.

Donald Trump

Anyone else a bit disappointed though that we have to endure another few weeks of the same?

It will be worth it on a practical note if they get the WA passed, but other than that, if we are all going to have to crash and burn, 28th is as good as two weeks later!

MikeSoys

dresden8 wrote: »

What's this blame crap? It's meaningless.

The Telegraph is never going to turn around and say "You know what, we were wrong all along."

From a historical viewpoint it will imply EU done everything it could to avoid a no deal...

Donald Trump

MikeSoys wrote: »

From a historical viewpoint it will imply EU done everything it could to avoid a no deal...

EU has to deal with Brexit-equivalent movements in other countries.


No harm giving fuel to the fire of the "evil EU" in a year or two if the UK is still in flames and people think they should have done more to prevent the UK from self-destructing.


That's all they are doing, giving them a little bit of time to pull back from the edge of the cliff rather than jumping.

LuckyLloyd

theguzman wrote: »

I have been saying it for a long time but a crash out is inevitable and they want this but also want to blame the EU for the short term disruption it will cause. No Deal here we come. A hard Brexit will be the only acceptable outcome. Arlene Foster has delivered for the DUP and the Brexiteers won the referendum and anything else other than a hard Brexit would be ant-democratic.

That is incorrect and unfounded. 'No Deal' was not on the ballot paper, leaving the SM was not on the ballot paper - senior leave voices never talked about an economically catastrophic exit. Current opinion polling fails to show any dominant opinion in favour of No Deal. Moreover, the people of Northern Ireland decisively voted to remain, and they will be the most adversely affected by No Deal.

To be frank, your post is nonsense and lacks any worthwhile substance. But you are fully aware of that, aren't you.

Spanish Eyes

Well I suppose it was always going to come down to a battle between UK leavers and the so called intransigent EU.

My hope is that WA is allowed another vote by Bercow with the amended withdrawal date, and whilst it is not perfect, everyone, EU, UK, Parliament, public opinion knows it is far better than a NO DEAL exit forthwith with not a sketch of a plan as Tusk said.

We shall see where pragmatism, intelligence, and looking after the people instead of the parties leads us.

We live in interesting times.

devnull

From what we've seen tonight, it confirms what we already know, the ERG are in charge of Number 10.

There was talk yesterday that she would go for a long extension if her deal fails until she had a meeting that included representatives of the ERG. She then came out with her statement pretty much saying that Brexit will not be delayed any further than the end of June no matter what and framed it as her deal vs no deal.

Tonight she is back to talking about if she doesn't get her vote through it means that she will come back to the EU before 12 April with a plan for the way forward, potentially delaying the deal for longer and looking at what other options may be on the table. This is at odds with her post ERG meeting response last night and is more in line with her pre ERG meeting plans.

It's there for all to see that May is now a puppet of the ERG, who are effectively in charge of Number 10 now. They know that whatever she says, if they kick up enough fuss she will fall in line to whatever they want. No doubt tomorrow the ERG will apply pressure and she'll be back to her deal or no deal once more.

What May has said tonight is worth absolutely nothing because we all know, what she says off her own back and what she says after the ERG have had their say, are often poles apart.

charlie14

dresden8 wrote: »

Sky news reporting EU has blinked because they just realised May was serious about crashing out. ERG are going to love this.

Turns out we do need them more than they need us.

Big mistake.

I heard that but he didn`t seem to know what this so called blinking was or what advantage it was to the UK.


Whatever point he was attempting to make I imagine his remark that May was happy to crash out with no deal, wasn`t missed by all those MPs who voted no crash out.

dresden8

MikeSoys wrote: »

From a historical viewpoint it will imply EU done everything it could to avoid a no deal...

Chamberlain did everything he could to avoid no deal.

He is ridiculed in history. You can't appease the greedy, venal or just plain batsh1t crazy.

History doesn't always judge you fairly.

And yes I did just Godwin your ass. I don't feel guilty about it, Brexit is just a huge Godwin anyway.

road_high

dresden8 wrote: »

Sky news reporting EU has blinked because they just realised May was serious about crashing out. ERG are going to love this.

Turns out we do need them more than they need us.

Big mistake.

Am hello- she was the one begging for an extension! Really no skin off the EUs nose, they’re the ones staying here (and still paying in)

MikeSoys

Anyone want to buy my GBP? ;-D...its too stressful holding onto :-)

Shelga

I think tonight’s events make the overall chances of No Deal less likely. Parliament to take control of the process next week- somehow??

Then again, at around 5pm today I thought No Deal was the most likely outcome. God knows what’s going to happen. But my thinking at the moment is: MV3 fails next week. TM resigns- thank god. A long extension (12-18 months?) is granted by EU, either to have a referendum or a GE.

I have no clue though!

jasper100

devnull wrote: »

From what we've seen tonight, it confirms what we already know, the ERG are in charge.

There was talk yesterday that she would go for a long extension if her deal fails until she had a meeting that included representatives of the ERG. She then came out with her statement pretty much saying that Brexit will not be delayed any further than the end of June no matter what and framed it as her deal vs no deal.

Tonight she is back to talking about if she doesn't get her vote through it means that she will come back to the EU before 12 April with a plan for the way forward, potentially delaying the deal for longer and looking at what other options may be on the table. This is at odds with her post ERG meeting response last night and is more in line with her pre ERG meeting plans.

It's there for all to see that May is now a puppet of the ERG, who are effectively in charge of Number 10 now. They know that whatever she says, if they kick up enough fuss she will fall in line to whatever they want. No doubt tomorrow the ERG will apply pressure and she'll be back to her deal or no deal once more.

What May has said tonight is worth absolutely nothing because we all know, what she says off her own back and what she says after the ERG have had their say, are often poles apart.

Corbyn is working on some "Norway 2" soft plan which keeps uk in the customs and movement of people agreement.

Effectively a "soft brexit" it sounds (from uk political analysts) that this might have enough cross party support to get it through.

So, no, the ERG are not in charge. Parliment might take over and control no.10 next week.

We still dont know what will happen, other than Mays deal looks like it might go in the bin, and her along with it.

prawnsambo

dresden8 wrote: »

It was going to be brought to a head this week.

EU have backed down.

You can't negotiate with perfidious Albion.

You win or you lose.

That's it.

I really don't see how this could be the case. A two week extension is nothing. But it's a huge looming deadline for the HoC. They thought they were off the hook when they voted for an extension, but when May went begging, she got pennies. Literally enough time to get her deal through or face a massive revolt if it doesn't. The can kicking has ended with a brick wall in three weeks time. They can get more, but only if something massive happens like a government collapse. The line has been drawn.

nc6000

So where is the push for TM to resign going to come from? There hasn't exactly been a queue of people looking to replace her and have to either implement Brexit or revoke it.

Spanish Eyes

I wish I could say more without being banned.

But the arrogance and hubris of a post colonial country like UK is just mind boggling.

They seem to think IMV that UK is the leader of the Western World or something, well certainly the leaders of the EU. Yet they cannot wait to exit, and surprise, surprise, still haven't even though they could have gone the day A50 was invoked!

UK knows they need the EU Trade Agreement, and in fairness EU would like some amicable relationship with UK. But typically, the UK think they have all the aces.

It is a compromise. Geddit.

I sincerely hope it all works out. I have no skin in the game, just want what is best for everyone. And to be fair we all know what the worst case scenario is. Yep, a No Deal that was voted down in Parliament. I know it is not binding just like the referendum But look where a non binding ref has led them now.

dresden8

prawnsambo wrote: »

I really don't see how this could be the case. A two week extension is nothing. But it's a huge looming deadline for the HoC. They thought they were off the hook when they voted for an extension, but when May went begging, she got pennies. Literally enough time to get her deal through or face a massive revolt if it doesn't. The can kicking has ended with a brick wall in three weeks time. They can get more, but only if something massive happens like a government collapse. The line has been drawn.

It was first drawn last November.

This is all fuel to the "EU always blinks and makes a deal at the last minute" crowd.

prawnsambo

nc6000 wrote: »

So where is the push for TM to resign going to come from? There hasn't exactly been a queue of people looking to replace her and have to either implement Brexit or revoke it.

It has to come from the HoC itself. The Tories are locked out for another nine months or so, having failed to do it earlier. Pressure on her to resign might work, but I wouldn't hold my breath. So a motion of no confidence with a few dozen Tory rebels should do it.

prawnsambo

dresden8 wrote: »

It was first drawn last November.

This is all fuel to the "EU always blinks and makes a deal at the last minute" crowd.

What are you talking about? What line was drawn by the EU last November?

Capt'n Midnight

Water John wrote: »

There is a pic on twitter of almost 20 people around a laptop writing up the document for the leaders, incls Weyand and the Irish Ambassador, no UK rep in the room.

Here it is
https://twitter.com/DTzantchev/status/1108807850397261826/photo/1

1,000 days and May sends a letter asking for an extension date that was already rejected. More stalling for time. And was late sending the letter.

And gets a prompt reply so very clear that any delay was caused by the UK.

prawnsambo

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Here it is
twitter.com/DTzantchev/status/1108807850397261826/photo/1

1,000 days and May sends a letter asking for an extension date that was already rejected. More stalling for time. And was late sending the letter.

And gets a prompt reply so very clear that any delay was caused by the UK.

That link isn't working for me.

nc6000

prawnsambo wrote: »

That link isn't working for me.

https://twitter.com/DTzantchev/status/1108807850397261826

dresden8

prawnsambo wrote: »

What are you talking about? What line was drawn by the EU last November?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/24/deadline-britain-eu-agree-brexit-deal-delayed-four-weeks-new/

Econ__

A lot of bad takes on here. If you don't understand the complex dynamics of UK politics very well than you may as well not comment, because that is what was at the heart of tonight's extension formulation, expertly crafted by the EU.

May wanted the EU to agree to an extension until the 30th of June and slap on a condition that it's only granted if the deal passes next week. Her strategy was to blackmail Labour MPs with the threat of no deal to get it over the line - a very risky game.

The EU tonight have torn up that strategy. Through cleverly designed extension offer - they have given moderate MPs the time to vote down May's deal next week and have enough time to hold indicative votes to find a way forward (most likely through a softer form of Brexit). Remember that MPs were only two votes off forcing an indicative votes process on the government last week. Any trust or goodwill that moderate MPs had towards May will have evaporated after her behaviour in the last few days - it's now highly likely that the amendment will pass the next time it's put.

The EU tonight have effectively put the wheels in motion for a new cross party political process to which should help resolve the Brexit question in the HoC.

jasper100

nc6000 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DTzantchev/status/1108807850397261826

After 2 world wars, divided germany, divided ireland, iron curtain, communism, holocost etc. Etc. that picture is a credit to all europeans. Except one bunch of outcasts.

Laois_Man

Tonight's Question Time for anyone who missed it...

Capt'n Midnight

prawnsambo wrote: »

That link isn't working for me.

http added



BTW From the good folk at https://twitter.com/bydonkeys?lang=en

Another link that isn't working is Nigel's March To Leave route .
They've taken down the advertised routes.

But they are on webcache -
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:vyhmuu0cgT0J:https://www.marchtoleave.com/route+&cd=5&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk

and the way back machine
https://web.archive.org/web/20190228164812/https://www.marchtoleave.com/route


And Nigel's March To Leave only bought the .com website
https://marchtoleave.co.uk/ is of course now a parody site.

So the March is going about as well as the rest of Brexit


And Nigel taking the a poll on Wednesday
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1108511980908875778

ThePanjandrum

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

That is incorrect and unfounded. 'No Deal' was not on the ballot paper, leaving the SM was not on the ballot paper - senior leave voices never talked about an economically catastrophic exit. Current opinion polling fails to show any dominant opinion in favour of No Deal. Moreover, the people of Northern Ireland decisively voted to remain, and they will be the most adversely affected by No Deal.

To be frank, your post is nonsense and lacks any worthwhile substance. But you are fully aware of that, aren't you.

I think that you'll find that they don't say that leaving the Single Market was on the ballot paper, however, if you read the leaflet distributed by the Government, which was meant to fulfil the EU's referendum guidance, you will see that voters were threatened several times with a more distant relationship with the Single Market. So the majority voted to leave knowing that this meant that we would no longer be members of the Single Market and that access to it might be restricted. So despite what is often claimed by Remainers, people voted for Brexit in the knowledge that this would take them out of the Customs Union and distance them from the Single Market, they did so knowing that it might make them poorer, they did so because they wanted to take back their country's sovereignty which had been given away.

Many people spoke of a WTO deal as a distinct possibility before the Referendum and there were many discussions about it. Not accepting that this happened is rewriting history.