Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Peregrinus wrote: »

If MV3 fails they UK has an extension until 12 April to come back with another plan. For practical reasons, that plan must include a further extension, so by implication the EU are saying they will consider a longer extension, if they like the plan.

But the plan must not include any renegotiation of the WA, because that is not on offer.

So I think its a bit hasty to say that, as an MP, you wouldn't vote for the plan now.

You have to start by asking yourself what you actually want. If you want a general election, or a second referendum, it makes sense to at leaset consider voting against the deal, though you'll have to balance the risk that unlss you can persuade your colleagues that they too want these things, there'l be no plan, and a crash-out Brexit on 12 April.

On the other hand, if what you want is maybe something quite like the negotiated deal, but without the backstop, you're very very very unlikely to get that on 12 April, because the EU has already said that's not an acceptable plan. So voting against MV3 will deliver either a crash-out Brexit or an extension to implement a plan that you don't like. And you may dislike both of those things more than you dislike the negotiated deal.

Exactly, but additionally I understand that the UK must also indicate whether they will participate in MEP elections by this date as well (reading between the lines would seem that the EU is saying if you want the long extension you will need to participate).

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

It's a bone toss in the sense that just before the Council Macron was making noises suggesting that the UK should be denied any extension if they didn't have a plan.

Yes, Macron did make those noises, and then in the meeting, it was Macron himself who was putting dates for Plan B on the table. I think Macron was threatening to take the bone away so that he could then grudgingly hand it over.


We all know the UK press have forgotten what happened last week never mind February, so this could easily work.

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

So I think its a bit hasty to say that, as an MP, you wouldn't vote for the plan now.

You have to start by asking yourself what you actually want.

If MPs were inclined to do that, they wouldn't be in this mess.


No, I think they will simply see MV3 as another opportunity to kick the can down the road 2 weeks with the added benefits of kicking May in the process and not voting for anything in particular which might later prove unpopular.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If MPs were inclined to do that, they wouldn't be in this mess.


No, I think they will simply see MV3 as another opportunity to kick the can down the road 2 weeks with the added benefits of kicking May in the process and not voting for anything in particular which might later prove unpopular.

I think no deal is looking inevitable. I think Corbyn is such a selfish Labour leader that he sees a no deal Brexit disaster only as an opportunity for him to be PM and is completely blinkered to anything else.

Peregrinus

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

I think no deal is looking inevitable. I think Corbyn is such a selfish Labour leader that he sees a no deal Brexit disaster only as an opportunity for him to be PM and is completely blinkered to anything else.

The Labour Party will whip against MV3 because party policy favours either a general election or a second referendum and, regardless of which of those you prefer, the route to either of them starts with voting against MV3. But there will be some Labour rebels who reckon that the road that starts with rejecting MV3 ends not at a general election or at a second referendum but at no deal, and theu will support MV3 rather than risk that. Question is, how many?

Shelga

Can’t they table motions to either:
a) Apply for a long extension to negotiate a softer Brexit- ie customs union and single market membership. Long extension very unappealing, but so is everything.
b) Agree to vote for her deal, subject to it being put back to the people.

When the EU say the withdrawal agreement is not going to be reopened, could that change if the reason for reopening is to negotiate the softest of soft Brexits?

seamus

What are the chances that the HoC won't accept the extension on the terms given?

There's something very Treaty of Versailles about yesterday's pictures of EU officials writing the "agreement" to give to May, no hint of negotiation going on.

However necessary we know such a move to be, it could rankle in Westminster.

At the very least at this stage, the UK now has clear outcomes. They still have their deal, no deal or no Brexit. But any notion of blinking at the last minute is gone, and there are are no more offers in the back pocket. Make your mind up by 12th April, or go.

Hurrache

seamus wrote: »

What are the chances that the HoC won't accept the extension on the terms given?

Apparently it's a statutory instrument or something along those lines so they don't have to pass it anyway.

Beechwoodspark

seamus wrote: »

What are the chances that the HoC won't accept the extension on the terms given?

There's something very Treaty of Versailles about yesterday's pictures of EU officials writing the "agreement" to give to May, no hint of negotiation going on.

However necessary we know such a move to be, it could rankle in Westminster.

At the very least at this stage, the UK now has clear outcomes. They still have their deal, no deal or no Brexit. But any notion of blinking at the last minute is gone, and there are are no more offers in the back pocket. Make your mind up by 12th April, or go.

The UK and the EU concluded the withdrawal agreement back in November. That stage of the negotiation is finished. The UK were involved at every step.

LeinsterDub

Hurrache wrote: »

Apparently it's a statutory instrument or something along those lines so they don't have to pass it anyway.

The 29th is the legally agreed date. They have to vote

Hurrache

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The 29th is the legally agreed date. They have to vote

I understand that, but the question was if they agree to the extension May negotiated, many I'm sure won't like it and want to leave 29th regardless.

lawred2

seamus wrote: »

What are the chances that the HoC won't accept the extension on the terms given?

There's something very Treaty of Versailles about yesterday's pictures of EU officials writing the "agreement" to give to May, no hint of negotiation going on.

However necessary we know such a move to be, it could rankle in Westminster.

At the very least at this stage, the UK now has clear outcomes. They still have their deal, no deal or no Brexit. But any notion of blinking at the last minute is gone, and there are are no more offers in the back pocket. Make your mind up by 12th April, or go.

The UK sent a letter requesting an extension. The remaining nations got together to provide a response based on consensus.

Treaty of Versailles?

Well I suppose you could take that view. You'd be wrong obviously but since when has that got in the way of the usual suspects.

Peregrinus

seamus wrote: »

What are the chances that the HoC won't accept the extension on the terms given?

There's something very Treaty of Versailles about yesterday's pictures of EU officials writing the "agreement" to give to May, no hint of negotiation going on.

What can we say? Brexit means Brexit.

Peregrinus

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The 29th is the legally agreed date. They have to vote

Under Art 50, it's the 29th unless there's unanimous agreement among the member states that it should be a different date.

So the UK has to agree to the new date. The question is, who in the UK has to agree? EU law is silent about this; it's a matter of UK domestic law.

The traditional view is that the conduct of foreign relations is a matter for the executive, so HMG decides whether to agree or not.

That's reinforced in this case by the fact that Parliament has legislated to confirm Brexit day as 29 March or another date that can be set by ministerial order. The whole point of including that last bit is a recognition that Art 50 does allow the possibility of varying the date, and ensuring that it can be varied by Ministers; it doesn't require an amendment of the legislation to be voted on by Parliament.

Plus, anyway, just last week the Commons voted in support of an amendment calling on May to request an extension from the EU. So, if the executive does need parliamentary authorisation to agree an extension, haven't they got it?

The only thing that could go wronig is if Parliament voted in the course of next week not to accept the offered extension, but to crash out on 29 March. If HMG ignored that and notified acceptance to the EU anyway, they's have a proper constitutional crisis on their hands. But that seems a wildly unlikely sequence of events; worry about it when it happens.

Akrasia

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't think this counts as a bone toss - everyone on the EU side said loud and clear starting weeks ago that the UK could have an extension to sort their sh!t out if they asked. May asked.

BERLIN (Reuters) - If Britain asks for a delay to its departure from the European Union, none of the existing members will stand in its way, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said on Tuesday (Feb 19).

They did not toss her a bone, they tore up her homework, showed her how it should have been done, and then sent her home with a note for the adults, assuming there are any in Parliament.

They've also given enough time for the HOC to dump May in a vote of no confidence and replace her with someone without any of her political baggage

oscarBravo

Peregrinus wrote: »

...they's have a proper constitutional crisis on their hands.

Or, as it's called these days, a Tuesday.

Mezcita

Am I missing something here? No deal by the 29th of March now at 32/1.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics

Surely an accidental no deal is much more likely?

Akrasia

The EU are completely in the driving seat now. The UK had 2 years where they could have negotiated a deal on their own terms. Now every moment is dictated by the EU and they're no longer shy about demonstrating it.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Peregrinus wrote: »

The Labour Party will whip against MV3 because party policy favours either a general election or a second referendum and, regardless of which of those you prefer, the route to either of them starts with voting against MV3. But there will be some Labour rebels who reckon that the road that starts with rejecting MV3 ends not at a general election or at a second referendum but at no deal, and theu will support MV3 rather than risk that. Question is, how many?

Do Labour have the numbers aligned with them to push a GE or PV though, particularly if it means the UK will need to participate in MEP elections? It's a dangerous game to play on the knife-edge of no deal.

joe40

Shelga wrote: »

Can’t they table motions to either:
a) Apply for a long extension to negotiate a softer Brexit- ie customs union and single market membership. Long extension very unappealing, but so is everything.
b) Agree to vote for her deal, subject to it being put back to the people.

When the EU say the withdrawal agreement is not going to be reopened, could that change if the reason for reopening is to negotiate the softest of soft Brexits?

My understanding (limited admittedly) is that the WA is the only agreement which can accommodate EU wishes and Teresa May's "red lines"

I think EU are open to more negotiations if the red lines in relation to things like Customs union, freedom of movement, and single market etc are changed or relaxed in some way. I'm not sure about details.

But if UK are to abandon all the main pillars of the EU then the WA is the only agreement acceptable to the EU

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

oscarBravo wrote: »

Or, as it's called these days, a Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday.

FYP :P

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Good god... I just had a chilling thought. Imagine Farage getting re-elected as an MEP!? I would almost rather have a no-deal Brexit than have to listen to him continuing to pull his nonsense in the EP

seamus

lawred2 wrote: »

Well I suppose you could take that view. You'd be wrong obviously but since when has that got in the way of the usual suspects.

It's the optics. It's always about the optics. What actually happened is somewhat irrelevant.

May asked for an extension to June 30th and then had to stand idly by while the EU stood around a table and decided what the actual extension was going to be (completely ignoring the UK's request), before handing it to her and sending her on her way.

It would be hard for a citizen of that country to not see yesterday's meeting as a national humiliation, especially with the photographic documents that accompany it.
Proper tail between the legs stuff.

Maybe in the UK this will be seen as a personal embarrassment for May rather than something that taints all UK citizens.

Zubeneschamali

Hurrache wrote: »

many I'm sure won't like it and want to leave 29th regardless.

Parliament had a vote on No Deal, and it lost 312-308 even though May whipped the Tories to vote for No Deal that time.

Peregrinus

Mezcita wrote: »

Am I missing something here? No deal by the 29th of March now at 32/1.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics

Surely an accidental no deal is much more likely?

But not by 29 March.

Peregrinus

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

Good god... I just had a chilling thought. Imagine Farage getting re-elected as an MEP!? I would almost rather have a no-deal Brexit than have to listen to him continuing to pull his nonsense in the EP

He's hardly ever there, though.

_Puma_

Its blaringly obvious from Mays display last night that she is not calling any shots. She didnt say anything because she is not making the decisions. The people who are deciding things, (Likely the same people who advised Cameron to call the referendum and May to call the Snap GE) will be mulling over their options this morning at this very minute, in how to "frame the narrative" against the EU.

Very telling there has been nothing from the likes of Boris Johnson(Usually the dreg journalists posted outside his house have a few tidbits every morning ). Even more worryingly is it is likely the DUP are at the very heart of this cohort also.

This wont have a happy outcome unless the strings can be cut by May in calling a GE or 2nd Ref(Very unlikely going by last nights display). Otherwise the UK is going off a cliff (For the majority of the Population)and the people in this cohort will be very happy indeed.

In fairness to Macron I think he sees this and why he took the stance he did. He knows there is nothing to be negotiated with these people. The Eu deceleration was a just a last throw of the dice to show the UK population that no matter how these people try, the looming disaster cannot be framed as the EU screwing them over. No skin off the EU's back to extend the deadline another week or so and the onus is now firmly in Westminster's court. Sadly for us it will do little good.

BonnieSituation

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

April 10th, anniversary of the sinking of RMS Titanic
April 12th, anniversary of the sinking of HMG Brexit

April 11th, anniversary of my birth and my community rating deadline. That means I'm sinking too I guess.

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Serious work again yesterday all. Just managed to get through what I missed.

Is QT worth a watch at all?

BonnieSituation

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I can't remember where I saw it, but someone, somewhere said LINO is the perfect name for May; hard to nail down but easy to walk over.

It was John Crace, the sketch writer in the Guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/20/the-maybots-binary-messages-have-become-just-a-series-of-noughts?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Dubh Geannain

Note to self: Avoid Twitter and ignore any Brexit related bulletins on April 1st which unfortunately is a Monday this year.