Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo

Peregrinus wrote: »

He's hardly ever there, though.

Oh no, he's there a lot. Otherwise he doesn't get to collect his per diems. 63% attendance record.

joe40

As a result of last nights decision, we now have a definite cliff edge date. Up to now the 29th of March was a nominal date but there was always a good chance (not 100%) of some form of extension.

Now the real game of chicken begins. Do pro remain, and pro soft brexit MPs support TM deal as the lesser of two evils or do they gamble on been able to achieve "something" between V3 and the 12th April that will result in a longer extension, and participation in MEP elections

That "something" will have to be dramatic and historical.

I'll leave it to more knowledgeable people than me to call it...

Tell me how

BonnieSituation wrote: »

April 11th, anniversary of my birth and my community rating deadline. That means I'm sinking too I guess.

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Serious work again yesterday all. Just managed to get through what I missed.

Is QT worth a watch at all?

Have a look at their twitter feed, they post excerpts from the show which will give you a vibe for what it was about.

It was on in Belfast with a member of the DUP and Sinn Fein in attendance so I expect it was a lot to do with people giving out about politicians playing party politics in the party politic centre of the universe.

There was an 18 year old audience member who made a point about how ill-advised Cameron was in his motivations for holding the referendum and she sounded wise beyond her years. And she had no vote in Brexit which sounds crazy as she enters her adult life.

Hurrache

Taking back control

Following more than an hour of explanations that with days left until Britain might crash out she could win over lawmakers who have twice rejected her EU withdrawal deal, May left the summit room on Thursday and the other 27 leaders conferred — finding a consensus that they were even less convinced than before, officials familiar with their discussions told Reuters.

French President Emmanuel Macron told the room that before coming to Brussels he had thought May had only a 10 percent chance of winning the vote. After listening to the prime minister, he said, he had cut his estimate — to five percent.

To general assent, one person present said, summit chair Donald Tusk shot back that Macron was being “very optimistic”.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-chances-idUKKCN1R30AZ

prawnsambo

BonnieSituation wrote: »

April 11th, anniversary of my birth and my community rating deadline. That means I'm sinking too I guess.

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Serious work again yesterday all. Just managed to get through what I missed.

Is QT worth a watch at all?

Titanic actually sank on 15th April. Struck the iceberg late on 14th April. So 15th April is a Monday this year. Markets will be open and the Titanic sterling will sink.

Enzokk

The EU has just made sure that May and the UK cannot blame them for no-deal just happening. They have laid out the options to the HoC and a path to a deal is there for everyone to see. If the UK still falls into no-deal it will not be due to the EU and this is the purpose of the flexible extension dates. Yes there is still a deadline but the EU has given MPs that have been scared the past few days some reflection time and an exit. Either it is May's deal or it is sort it out yourself.

Hurrache

More insight into how awful the BBC have become, this thread from Rutger Bregman, he of Davos and Tucker Carlson fame, describes in this thread the farce he was put through when invited onto This Week.

https://twitter.com/rcbregman/status/1109002110455214080

Joe_ Public

Hurrache wrote: »

Taking back control




https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-chances-idUKKCN1R30AZ

Sounds a bit overly pessimistic on her chances but don’t think she’ll get it passed all the same. Whatever chance she had disappeared with her parliament vs people speech on Wednesday night, a gaffe of historically monumental proportions, even by her lofty recent standards. Even labour waverers like Lisa Nandy in strong leave constituencies, who might have backed her, seem dead set against it now. At this stage I find it difficult to decide whether her vote failing is a good thing or not. Seems a very dangerous point she has brought her country to the brink of.

BonnieSituation

prawnsambo wrote: »

Titanic actually sank on 15th April. Struck the iceberg late on 14th April. So 15th April is a Monday this year. Markets will be open and the Titanic sterling will sink.

That's my hope. I've a credit card that needs clearing that I've been delaying because of Brexit.

ilovesmybrick

EU wins itself some breathing space

This is just a complete misrepresentation of what actually happened from Adler. It's not the EU that's in the middle of a political and constitutional meltdown.

BonnieSituation

Tell me how wrote: »

Have a look at their twitter feed, they post excerpts from the show which will give you a vibe for what it was about.

It was on in Belfast with a member of the DUP and Sinn Fein in attendance so I expect it was a lot to do with people giving out about politicians playing party politics in the party politic centre of the universe.

There was an 18 year old audience member who made a point about how ill-advised Cameron was in his motivations for holding the referendum and she sounded wise beyond her years. And she had no vote in Brexit which sounds crazy as she enters her adult life.

Aye. Sure didn't I do the guest synopsis on Wednesday night. :P

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A few on here mentioned the young girl. But very little else. I guess I'll just go look at the clips.

prawnsambo

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

EU wins itself some breathing space

This is just a complete misrepresentation of what actually happened from Adler. It's not the EU that's in the middle of a political and constitutional meltdown.

Fog in channel, Europe cut off.



That's the BBC line these days.

demfad

The parliament may use an amendment to take control of the process when May's deal fails.
Benn's was narrowly defeated last time and something similar should pass.
An amendment requiring a referendum on May's deal might be the final way out.
"Revoke" is mentioned more and more recently especially since the petition (heading for 3m now).
I think this and the march on Saturday might be persuaders for a final say.

Ill be happier when I actually see the Commons pass what needs to be passed to facilitate the required extension.

prawnsambo

This headline in the Telegraph is just all of brexit.

VinLieger

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

EU wins itself some breathing space

This is just a complete misrepresentation of what actually happened from Adler. It's not the EU that's in the middle of a political and constitutional meltdown.

Adler and Laura K cannot be trusted for objective reporting

LeinsterDub

VinLieger wrote: »

Adler and Laura K cannot be trusted for objective reporting

They need to stop doing the podcast they've create an echo chamber for themselves

Donald Trump

So, what is the status of the leave date officially/legally at the current time?

Is it still 28th March?

Has 12th April been signed and agreed as the new date?

I mean as in suppose WA does not get passed and hypothetically the HoC just says "that's it. We're fed up. We're leaving on 28th". Can they do that?


From the accounts I read, it seems she asked for June, they offered a date in May, she pleaded for more time and they came back and offered the multi-stage one. I assume both sides have to agree to it and would assume the UK government have to agree to it officially.

prawnsambo

Jeremy Vine tweeted three options. All the replies are "derision please" or "the derision ship has sailed". But this one caught my eye:

Brilliant.

Kalyke

The HoC is going to be a mad (der) house next week. We could even witness one of those "I spy strangers" moments!

Zubeneschamali

Video (below) circulating of Vince Cable saying May in that meeting told the other party leaders "The people voted for pain", but I think it is clear that he was paraphrasing.

She was asked at the meeting about the economic pain that would be inflicted on millions of British people, and the answer was, you know, "the people voted for pain".

I don't think he is saying she literally said those words: "The people voted for pain" but rather, she said something like "The people voted to leave" which means the same thing, but can be said by someone who isn't a Dark Lord with a maniacal laugh.

https://twitter.com/jamesorharry/status/1108858494021701632

Water John

We need to start factoring in that when May loses the vote next week, there seems to be a Tory push for the suits to visit her and suggest she steps down.
HOC will be discussing indicitive votes and Tories will be selecting a new PM.
That new PM may likely be minded to go to a No Deal Brexit and rebuff Parliament.

Panrich

Haven't read the whole thread and this has probably been covered already but it looks to me like Corbyn and Starmer told the EU yesterday that May has lost the plot entirely and is now looking to exit with no deal. They probably told them that her deal has no chance of passing next week, and asked for help to build a cross party consensus among those who would favour a softer Brexit. That would help explain the outcome with the option to come forward by 12th April with a new plan and the tweet from Guy Verhofstadt would seem to be confirming this hope. Tusk seemed to be more upbeat as well that there is a way out of this mess.

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1109002393742655488

Shelga

So if MPs vote down the deal next week, are we looking at a guaranteed no deal? I keep going back and forth. I honestly don’t know what I’d do if I was an MP. I don’t envy them this task in the least.

Is it possible May tries to delay the vote til the second week of April? I would put nothing past her at this stage.

Joe_ Public

Donald Trump wrote: »

So, what is the status of the leave date officially/legally at the current time?

Is it still 28th March?

Has 12th April been signed and agreed as the new date?

I mean as in suppose WA does not get passed and hypothetically the HoC just says "that's it. We're fed up. We're leaving on 28th". Can they do that?


From the accounts I read, it seems she asked for June, they offered a date in May, she pleaded for more time and they came back and offered the multi-stage one. I assume both sides have to agree to it and would assume the UK government have to agree to it officially.

I assume they wouldn’t have to do anything. Failing any delay mechanisms, the UK simply ceases to be a member of the EU on March 29 if MV3 fails. Extension comes into play only once it passes the house.

Eod100

John Rentoul of the UK Independent on Sean O'Rourke on RTE just there saying MV3 will likely fail, May will have to go back to EU for longer extension til end of the year so will have to take part in European elections. Thinks she doesn't have long left as PM either.

Another Tory PM could be gone over Europe

prawnsambo

prawnsambo wrote: »

Fog in channel, Europe cut off.



That's the BBC line these days.

Apparently Gavin Esler reads boards

branie2

What day will the vote be?

Seth Brundle

branie2 wrote: »

What day will the vote be?

Are they even sure yet whether another MV will be allowed?

Water John

Good analysis:
'The terms of the extension are not drafted for the prime minister’s benefit. They contain a message from the EU direct to the House of Commons. In crude terms: piss or get off the pot. If you want to leave with a deal, vote for the damned deal. If you are foolish enough to leave without a deal, do not blame us. Have a couple more weeks to think about it. But if you want something else, a referendum or a softer Brexit, work it out soon. And then send someone who isn’t Theresa May to talk to us about it.' Rafael Behr Guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/22/eu-mps-theresa-may-finished-brexit

Eod100

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I assume they wouldn’t have to do anything. Failing any delay mechanisms, the UK simply ceases to be a member of the EU on March 29 if MV3 fails. Extension comes into play only once it passes the house.

Was wondering about that too. Found this in BBC article:

''Mrs May is expected to table secondary legislation - that has to go through the Commons and the Lords by next Friday - to remove 29 March from UK law.

But Downing Street sources say an agreement with the EU to extend the Brexit deadline would be a piece of international law and would take precedence even if Parliament rejected it.''

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47663031