Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

branie2 wrote: »

What day will the vote be?

Next week sometime. It hasn't even been confirmed that anything is happening though.

Roger_007

Eod100 wrote: »

John Rentoul of the UK Independent on Sean O'Rourke on RTE just there saying MV3 will likely fail, May will have to go back to EU for longer extension til end of the year so will have to take part in European elections. Thinks she doesn't have long left as PM either.

Another Tory PM could be gone over Europe

If TM resigns the only candidates likely to succeed her are from the ERG wing of the party. Her successor wouldn't last long because the Torys are hopelessly split and the likely to remain so because the Brexit saga has years to run yet.
Only an idiot would want her job anyway, but I suppose there's plenty of those in the Tory party.

Joe_ Public

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Are they even sure yet whether another MV will be allowed?

Is she even likely to bring it forward at this stage? Looks goosed as it stands so maybe better to proceed via a better route where she might find some consensus?

branie2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Next week sometime. It hasn't even been confirmed that anything is happening though.

Thanks

Eod100

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Next week sometime. It hasn't even been confirmed that anything is happening though.

Think it was due to be Monday or Tuesday before extension. Not sure has that changed since though

Zubeneschamali

Shelga wrote: »

So if MPs vote down the deal next week, are we looking at a guaranteed no deal?

No. The chances of No Deal have gone down somewhat. You can tell because Sterling strengthened vs Euro yesterday.

May can no longer threaten MPs with Her Deal vs. No Deal next week, since the EU has already said they will extend the deadline if MV3 is rejected. So MPs have no more reason to vote Yes to MV3 than they had last time and it will not pass.

The question is what May will do after that, but the threat of No Deal next Friday is all but gone, and No Deal on April 12th seems less likely.

Eod100

Roger_007 wrote: »

If TM resigns the only candidates likely to succeed her are from the ERG wing of the party. Her successor wouldn't last long because the Torys are hopelessly split and the likely to remain so because the Brexit saga has years to run yet.
Only an idiot would want her job anyway, but I suppose there's plenty of those in the Tory party.

I think her successor could very well be worse. If I was May I'd have resigned by now, let someone else have the poisoned chalice. Don't know how a change in PM could make a huge difference when HOC doesn't seem to know what it wants

Leroy42

But under the 'deal' on the extension worked out yesterday, there is no conditions on the extension. TM does not have to hold a vote next week at this stage.

As I understand it, she has the power to amend the legislation on the date, so can change 29th March easy enough.

Would she then hold off another vote on the deal until 12th April, hope to get it through and then ask for a further 'technical' extension to bring them to 30th June?

Zubeneschamali

Roger_007 wrote: »

If TM resigns the only candidates likely to succeed her are from the ERG wing of the party.

Says who?

ancapailldorcha

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Says who?

The ever declining and ageing Tory membership. MP's pick two candidates and party members choose one out of those two to lead the party.

Inquitus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Says who?

The Bookies are a good guideline

Joe_ Public

Eod100 wrote: »

Was wondering about that too. Found this in BBC article:

''Mrs May is expected to table secondary legislation - that has to go through the Commons and the Lords by next Friday - to remove 29 March from UK law.

But Downing Street sources say an agreement with the EU to extend the Brexit deadline would be a piece of international law and would take precedence even if Parliament rejected it.''

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47663031

If that second paragraph is accurate you’d wonder why they’d need to bother with either house in the first place? Not that I’d be hanging my hat on anything emerging from no.10 these days.

Inquitus

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The ever declining and ageing Tory membership. MP's pick two candidates and party members choose one out of those two to lead the party.

Aye and given recent polling of Tory members it's clear they would choose the biggest Brexiteer who makes it into the final 2 after the Parliamentary Parties vote.



https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/04/most-tory-members-would-choose-no-deal-over-may-brexit-plan

seamus

Leroy42 wrote: »

Would she then hold off another vote on the deal until 12th April, hope to get it through and then ask for a further 'technical' extension to bring them to 30th June?

It seems clear the EU are refusing to allow the UK's own political game-playing to dictate the EU's direction.

They're making it clear that unless the WA is approved by next Friday, then the UK has until 12th April to revoke article 50. If they choose not to, there are no second chances.

Of course that said, if May miraculously passed the WA on 6th April (e.g.), would the EU say, "No, you had your chance, we're not going back to the WA"? No, I don't believe they would. That does no good for anybody.

But they will revert to the previous offer, accept the ratification of the WA and extend the exit date to 22nd May.

So one could argue that the UK has until 12th April to approve the WA, but realistically all they'd be doing is playing with fire (quelle suprise) and wasting time they could otherwise be using to prepare for Brexit.

Now that I've written that last paragraph, it would seem that time wasting and fire playing is what the HoC has been exclusively doing for 24 months, so in fact you might be right that they'll drag the MV3 out to early April and hope that the EU rolls their eyes and says, "OK, you can have this one. 22nd May it is".

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

There is another faction in the Tory Party who are also acting disgracefully in my opinion. The non-ERG aligned MPs. Why are they not also threatening May? They are a larger group, and surely would hold more sway. Why are they allowing this group of ~80 + DUP to hold the party to ransom?

Cowards.

briany

Inquitus wrote: »

Aye and given recent polling of Tory members it's clear they would choose the biggest Brexiteer who makes it into the final 2 after the Parliamentary Parties vote.



https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/04/most-tory-members-would-choose-no-deal-over-may-brexit-plan

This must be why the ERG appear to have so much power within the Conservatives. The party's voter base appears to have shifted to the right, out of sync with Cameron's modern, 'compassionate' Conservative movement some nearly 10 years prior. A party is nothing without its voter base, so the party must appease all those whose views now align more closely with the ERG.

Inquitus

New diagram of the various paths that exist now. I think we are heading for MV3 to fail but an extension to 12th April being passed, this is how Parliament voted previously in large numbers. Then we are in uncharted territory:

joe40

Just a thought that some of the more economic savvy might have a view on.

A no deal brexit will certainly have the affect of reducing the value of sterling, quite dramatically.

However since the general consensus is that a no deal exit will also be economically damaging for the EU is there a chance of a decline in the Euro also.

I'm really just clutching at straws since I'm paid in sterling but living in the South, but is there any hope (hope for me that is) of a decline in sterling been somewhat a offset by a decline in the Euro.

mrbrianj

Roger_007 wrote: »

If TM resigns the only candidates likely to succeed her are from the ERG wing of the party. Her successor wouldn't last long because the Torys are hopelessly split and the likely to remain so because the Brexit saga has years to run yet.
Only an idiot would want her job anyway, but I suppose there's plenty of those in the Tory party.

I thinks its ripe for somebody to jump in, dismantle Mays crazy red lines and put together a Brexit plan based on a EEA EFTA type membership. They get to 'leave' and have grown up relationships with neighbouring nations. It may not make the ERG or Nigel types happy - but would work for the vast majority of the UK. Whoever can do that gets the plaudits for delivering a sensible Brexit.

But sadly, there seems like there is nobody left in the HoC uninfected by the last 3 years of brexit craziness.

Inquitus

briany wrote: »

This must be why the ERG appear to have so much power within the Conservatives. The party's voter base appears to have shifted to the right, out of sync with Cameron's modern, 'compassionate' Conservative movement some nearly 10 years prior. A party is nothing without its voter base, so the party must appease all those whose views now align more closely with the ERG.

You have to remember this is not the Tory voter base it is just 124k members of the Tory party, people who join a party tend to be at the more extreme end of a Party's politics, sadly this is the case with the Tory Members who are all rabidly right wing and pro Brexit. The same is true of the Labour Party who's membership is dominated by very left wing trade unionists, the Tory Leader selection strategy is bad, but Labour's is far worse as the Parliamentary Party don't get a say, at least the Tory Parliamentary Party can try and save themselves from the worst excesses of their membership by not putting foward the likes of JRM.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

Would she then hold off another vote on the deal until 12th April, hope to get it through and then ask for a further 'technical' extension to bring them to 30th June?

The EU will not grant that further short extension, since it leads to a situation where the UK is in the EU but not represented in the EU parliament. The UK could mess everything up by revoking A50 unilaterally at that point casting doubt on the validity of the Euro parliament.


If they go looking for any sort of extension past the elections, the only one on offer will be long, and on condition that the UK takes part in the elections, and that is only possible if they ask before April 12th.

Headshot

briany wrote: »

This must be why the ERG appear to have so much power within the Conservatives. The party's voter base appears to have shifted to the right, out of sync with Cameron's modern, 'compassionate' Conservative movement some nearly 10 years prior. A party is nothing without its voter base, so the party must appease all those whose views now align more closely with the ERG.

It explains why the likes of Anna Soubry etc have left the Conservatives. It's much like the labour party where the base has been poisoned from within

Zubeneschamali

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The ever declining and ageing Tory membership. MP's pick two candidates and party members choose one out of those two to lead the party.

So, if you are not a member of the ERG, why the fudge would you put one of them up for leader given the state of things?


And if only the ERG back their man, he won't be in the top two.

robinph

seamus wrote: »

It seems clear the EU are refusing to allow the UK's own political game-playing to dictate the EU's direction.

They're making it clear that unless the WA is approved by next Friday, then the UK has until 12th April to revoke article 50. If they choose not to, there are no second chances.

Of course that said, if May miraculously passed the WA on 6th April (e.g.), would the EU say, "No, you had your chance, we're not going back to the WA"? No, I don't believe they would. That does no good for anybody.

But they will revert to the previous offer, accept the ratification of the WA and extend the exit date to 22nd May.

So one could argue that the UK has until 12th April to approve the WA, but realistically all they'd be doing is playing with fire (quelle suprise) and wasting time they could otherwise be using to prepare for Brexit.

Now that I've written that last paragraph, it would seem that time wasting and fire playing is what the HoC has been exclusively doing for 24 months, so in fact you might be right that they'll drag the MV3 out to early April and hope that the EU rolls their eyes and says, "OK, you can have this one. 22nd May it is".

I thought the two different extension options were both dependant on the deal being voted on before the 29th March. No vote before the 29th March and it's No-Deal on the 29th March with zero time to change any legislation in the UK.

The 12th April extension is purely to allow for the HoC to change legislation, or invent a completely new plan such as revoke or referendum later in the year and after having held EU elections.

The 22nd May extension is to allow more time for an orderly WA Brexit and updating the legislation.

The EU has stated that the extensions are dependant on the vote happening next week.

Laois_Man

I think May is going to last longer than people think

She is in no danger until MV3 fails. Then she'll try save herself in any way possible, even if it means attempting to call a second referendum - failing that, she would call a general election and get the needed extension by committing to the EU elections. The woman will do anything to save her own skin!

Simply, every Tory (and indeed Corbyn) with eyes on Number 10 is playing poker with the timing of their attempt and none of them want it before Withdrawal comes into effect

Water John

Mv3 on Tuesday or Wednesday, from No 10 press briefing.

Zubeneschamali

robinph wrote: »

The EU has stated that the extensions are dependant on the vote happening next week.

No, they haven't. From the text (a .pdf):


The European Council agrees to an extension until 22 May 2019, provided the Withdrawal Agreement is approved by the House of Commons next week. If the Withdrawal Agreement is not approved by the House of Commons next week, the European Council agrees to an extension until 12 April 2019 and expects the United Kingdom to indicate a way forward before this date for consideration by the European Council.

So if an MV3 vote happens and fails, extension to the 12th April, but also if an MV3 vote does not happen next week, automatic extension even if May bumps MV3 to some other date.

Leroy42

robinph wrote: »

The EU has stated that the extensions are dependant on the vote happening next week.

This is the bit I am confused over. initially this seemed to be the case, but my understanding is that it is not part of the extension criteria.

If the WA agreement is not approved by 12 April then UK needs to inform the EU whether they will partake in EU elections, which would then allow for an extension to end of the year.

If WA is approved prior to that date then Brexit day is pushed back to 22 May to allow more time for the UK to get through the required legislation.

But I do not see anywhere where it states that the deal must be voted for next week, or even what happens if it was defeated next week. TM could hold MV4/5 or whatever up until 12 April couldn't she?

Inquitus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, they haven't. From the text:


The European Council agrees to an extension until 22 May 2019, provided the Withdrawal Agreement is approved by the House of Commons next week. If the Withdrawal Agreement is not approved by the House of Commons next week, the European Council agrees to an extension until 12 April 2019 and expects the United Kingdom to indicate a way forward before this date for consideration by the European Council.

Well if she doesn't hold the vote next week as outlined by the EU, then we by default fall into the 12th April extension scenario.

aidyhawse

Laois_Man wrote: »

I think May is going to last longer than people think

She is in no danger until MV3 fails - so she'll delay that for a cople of weeks - guaranteed. Then she'll try save herself in any way possible, even if it means attempting to call a second referendum - failing that, she would call a general election and get the needed extension by committing to the EU elections. The woman will do anything to save her own skin!

Simply, every Tory (and indeed Corbyn) with eyes on Number 10 is playing poker with the timing of their attempt and none of them want it before Withdrawal comes into effect

MV3 is set to happen next week, as the result of that will depend on which extension period will be granted.

May has already stated that she would not be leading the Tories into the next General Election.