Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

If May puts forward her deal again, it is quite likely that the Kyle/Wilson amendment will be put forward. This amendment, if voted through, would mean that May's deal would have to be put to a referendum - if the deal is voted through. In that case, the EU would probably be very happy to offer an extension. It would also take no deal off the table.

Laois_Man

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

They lost by 149 last time though. The ERG and DUP between them don't command nearly enough votes.

There are a lot more Tory MPs that support the ERG than the number who are actual members of it though.

Indestructable

In the case of a MV3, it's quite possible that the ERG and DUP will vote for it but some Tory remainers will switch their votes now that the Governments threat of No Deal is off the table.

The remainers will gamble that a second referendum or softer Brexit will follow a third defeat.

Water John

Whilst leave on the 29th March is still in the Law, both Gove and Lidington have signalled that the Law will be changed as we get to that date, if necessary.
That respects yesterday's vote. Yvette Cooper shows her mettle.

ancapailldorcha

Laois_Man wrote: »

There are a lot more Tory MPs that support the ERG than the number who are actual members of it though.

I'm aware of this. Last number I read for the number of MP's who'd vote with them was 70 (including the actual ERG MP's).

Professor Moriarty

Shadow Brexit Secretary just said that there should be a public vote on a credible Brexit option. So now Labour officially backs a second referendum.

robinph

Water John wrote: »

Whilst leave on the 29th March is still in the Law, both Gove and Lidington have signalled that the Law will be changed as we get to that date, if necessary.
That respects yesterday's vote. Yvette Cooper shows her mettle.

Liddington saying that they will have a bunch of votes about what it is that parliament wants two weeks after the 22nd March(?) in order to try and get one of the amendments dropped which would have the result of taking power away from the government is basically confirming they will make the change at the last minute to cancel the no deal exit. If that is a cancellation of A50 in the event of an extension being rejected is another matter of course.

tuxy

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm aware of this. Last number I read for the number of MP's who'd vote with them was 70 (including the actual ERG MP's).

Wouldn't the 70 ERG + 10 DUP be enough to turn around a 149 vote loss and win by 11?

Professor Moriarty

tuxy wrote: »

Wouldn't the 70 ERG + 10 DUP be enough to turn around a 149 vote loss and win by 11?

I'm open to correction, but quite a few ERG members voted for her deal this week on the basis that they saw Brexit slipping away otherwise.

Loafing Oaf

Metroid diorteM wrote: »

Bercow in theory could push back on May bringing the same deal for a vote again?

Probably won’t happen but it’s intersting to consider

https://news.sky.com/story/an-ancient-rule-means-bercow-could-take-drastic-action-on-brexit-11664555

I suppose the question then becomes would he want to. Doing so would presumably push the UK towards a crashout, and he is believed to have remainer sympathies, so...

joe40

Indestructable wrote: »

In the case of a MV3, it's quite possible that the ERG and DUP will vote for it but some Tory remainers will switch their votes now that the Governments threat of No Deal is off the table.

The remainers will gamble that a second referendum or softer Brexit will follow a third defeat.

Yeah I see your point.
My head is starting to hurt at this stage.

Harry Palmr

This amendment H seems pretty pointless unless you like reading the runes.

No surprise - the No's have it.

Amendment I amendment (!)

Labour front bench supporting Benn amendment. Some fun if this passes, equivalent to last nights shenanigans if it does.

SimonTemplar

What is the origin of the unicorn phrase? I must have missed that.

charlie14

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Just realised the error in my maths.

Wouldn't they insist on changing the WA anyway though?

Even the ERG must know at this stage that is not going to happen.
They are really in the last chance saloon after last nights Malthouse amendment defeat shone a light on them.
If the UK crashes out with no deal it will be through default rather than design as there is no support for such a scenario.
For what it is worth, my opinion is that the ERG are nwo looking at either no exit or one a long way down the road if they do not back TM`s deal.
They will, like the DUP now realising the same, look for a way to climb down with some face.
It would not surprise me if that is by way of misrepesenting the Vienna Convention.
After all, misrepesentation is what they have show themselves to be particularly good at.

franglan

Was it Beth Rigby with the uniform comment to Boris first off?

Harry Palmr

Amendment to Amendment I result 311/314 noes have it by 3.

The substantive Hilary Benn amendment now follows

Hurrache

SimonTemplar wrote: »

What is the origin of the unicorn phrase? I must have missed that.

Seeking something that doesn't exist, a fantasy.

Laois_Man

43 Labour MPs disobeyed the whip in the 2nd referendum vote!

Chaos on all sides about everything as usual!

prawnsambo

So Theresa May has kept control of the process by just two votes.

Thought Benn had a chance of passing tbh. What does this parliament want I wonder? Remainer Tory votes cancelled out by Leave Labour votes I'd say.

EDIT: Lidingtons April proposal on this probably made the difference.

Professor Moriarty

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Thought Benn had a chance of passing tbh. What does this parliament want I wonder? Remainer Tory votes cancelled out by Leave Labour votes I'd say.

There were quite a few abstentions.

CelticRambler

Meanwhile, away from Westminster
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1106223651332993024

Chris Grayling's No Deal planning stopped by the discovery of a WWII bomb at Manston Airport - that was laid by the RAF to destroy the airfield if the Nazis invaded. Sort of makes sense in this week

:pac:

An Ciarraioch

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There were quite a few abstentions.

http://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1106253326981697537

charlie14

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1106253326981697537

How close that vote was will further concentrate the ERG minds I imagine.

Shelga

I’m starting to glaze over from the voting fiascos.

Can anyone summarise what the upshot of today’s votes is?

Inquitus

Shelga wrote: »

I’m starting to glaze over from the voting fiascos.

Can anyone summarise what the upshot of today’s votes is?

3rd WA Vote by Weds next week.

franglan

Inquitus wrote: »

3rd WA Vote by Weds next week.

When you really think about voting for the same thing for a third time while looking at the majorities of the past two votes - extraordinary times we live in.

tuxy

Inquitus wrote: »

3rd WA Vote by Weds next week.

Nice, gives her time to get a 4th one in by the 27th with a very slight change to it after taking to the EU at the EU summit!

Frank Bullitt

Inquitus wrote: »

3rd WA Vote by Weds next week.

I thought this was only a rumour? How does she expect this to ever pass if the EU have said (time and time again), that the deal won't change?