Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

prawnsambo wrote: »

Norwegian governments have been in favour of full membership for many iterations. The Labour, Conservative and Liberal parties are all in favour. The problem is that Norwegian people have rejected the proposition twice by narrow majorities. The latest in 1994 by 52/48.

There was a Norwegian on Remainiacs some time back who stated, from memory, that it was a very divisive position in Norway and that they had agreed to disagree on it. The politicians want in, the people don't agree so they seemed to have come to a compromise where they are kind of in and kind of out and both sides realise that it is not the best solution but it meets the demands on both sides to some extend so was a decent compromise.

Which is what the UK had in terms of Non-Euro etc but they decided to throw their toys out of the pram and have a little tantrum thinking the adults would simply cave in.

When you listen to ex Leaver activists, the one thing that comes across is that they never really expected to win. It really was meant to be a protest vote, a stick in the eye. Those that did actually believe in Brexit as a destination never dreamed that the EU would actually be so unified. They really felt that each member state would fight the others to save themselves, and they would simply pick them off starting with the German car manufacturers.

The Brexit that they have ended up with, be it TM deal or No Deal, has absolutely nothing to do with the Brexit that was campaigned for.

Joe_ Public

Water John wrote: »

Brexiteers describing indicitive votes as a 'national humiliation' and 'ludicrous'.
So asking MPs what they think is best, isn't democratic?

BTW looking at the list of bookies odds, the only name that I see who might work for all is Lidington. Seems to be taking the reins a bit more ATM.

The UK people have struck it lucky with Tusk in the driving seat. He genuinely cares about the country.

Possibly significant that the other parties have been talking to Lidington this morning, maybe a sign that the sidelining of PM has already begun?

Headshot

Eod100 wrote: »

Peak Tusk..

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1109096092786921473

A real states man and a real leader, someone the UK are craving for but instead they have the likes of May and Corbyn

Leroy42

Re Tusk, as each day passes his remark about "the lack of even a sketch of a plan" becomes more and more on the money.

prawnsambo

Leroy42 wrote: »

The Brexit that they have ended up with, be it TM deal or No Deal, has absolutely nothing to do with the Brexit that was campaigned for.

Yes, but that hasn't stopped them re-writing history on an ongoing basis to try and make the gap between fantasy and reality look like their plan all along.

Joe_ Public

Leroy42 wrote: »

Re Tusk, as each day passes his remark about "the lack of even a sketch of a plan" becomes more and more on the money.

Of course when you had the likes of David Davis telling all and sundry how easy and painless the whole process would be, what sense of urgency did anyone need about Plan As, Plan Bs, contingencies or whatever you’re having yourself?

fash

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

But that is not Brexit.

That's being in the single market, accepting all the rules and having zero say in those rules.

From a sovereignty perspective it's infinitely worse than being a full EU member country.

A lot of people would not be happy with that, not just the Brexiters.

It's good enough for Norway- and what is the UK except a poor man's Norway?

Furthermore, technically, the will of the people at the time of the referendum would have been for an EEA type exit - We know for certain that 48% wanted to remain in the single market and one can be reasonably confident that at least 2% of the remaining 51.9% voted to leave basis that "no-one is talking about leaving the single market" - including at a minimum people such as Richard North, one of the original Brexiters: http://www.eureferendum.com as well as Peter Hitchens, and several campaigners within the Leave organisation itself.

Furthermore there was a deep opinion study about a year ago (looking behind people's knee jerk "public face" position by asking secondary questions which do not trigger the knee jerk) which showed that EEA was by a significant majority the concensus position.

So who are you to argue with the will of the people?

fash

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Of course when you had the likes of David Davis telling all and sundry how easy and painless the whole process would be, what sense of urgency did anyone need about Plan As, Plan Bs, contingencies or whatever you’re having yourself?

David Davis foresaw all of this - don't you remember his "chessboard" speech:

https://mobile.twitter.com/propertyspot/status/1108155476011900928

Inquitus

fash wrote: »

David Davis foresaw all of this - don't you remember his "chessboard" speech:

https://mobile.twitter.com/propertyspot/status/1108155476011900928

Boards Friendly link below That ages spectacularly badly, its comical in retrospect, in some ways I think it's only in the past few weeks that the blinkers have come off, and the reality is dawning.

https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1108155476011900928

Spanish Eyes

Whatever about EEA membership and its business/trade advantages to UK, the FOM issue is one thing that many Brexiters do NOT want, no matter what. Well that and vassalage.

Tricky.

Leroy42

I hadn't seen that video before, but when you look at that it isn't hard to understand why so many people voted for Brexit. When senior politicians are telling people how easy and beneficial it all will be then why wouldn't they take them at their word?

For all this talk of "failure of democracy if the will of the people is not followed" stuff that is pedaled out, what really damages democracy is when those involved in it, the politicians etc blatantly lie and deceive the people and suffer no consequences.

Leroy42

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Whatever about EEA membership and its business/trade advantages to UK, the FOM issue is one thing that many Brexiters do NOT want, no matter what. Well that and vassalage.

Tricky.

Well they claim they don't want it. However, when asked why, or to give details of what needs to change it all starts to fall apart somewhat.

They want the end of FoM as it has been sold to them; that hoards of immigrants are coming from all over the EU to take the houses, the beds in the hospitals, the school and university places and the benefits. And also the jobs.

But the facts simply don't back that position up. The minumum hours contracts jobs are nothing to do with immigration. The ability of companies like Amazon to treat their workers like employees but pay them as contractors has nothing to do with FoM.

So even the claim that they want the end of FoM does not stand up to scrutiny.

PokeHerKing

Leroy42 wrote:

I hadn't seen that video before, but when you look at that it isn't hard to understand why so many people voted for Brexit. When senior politicians are telling people how easy and beneficial it all will be then why wouldn't they take them at their word?

I don't agree. If you're an idiot with delusions of grandeur and a complete lack of even a basic understanding of what the EU is (there's a clue in the name). Then yes, I can see how you voted for Brexit based off the above video.

Joe_ Public

fash wrote: »

David Davis foresaw all of this - don't you remember his "chessboard" speech:

https://mobile.twitter.com/propertyspot/status/1108155476011900928

There’s a certain comedic aspect to watching stuff like that now - and god knows there must be a veritable treasure trove of it - but the depressing thing is that most of them still won’t admit they were grievously wrong. The default position is something like, oh no, we got it totally right but the refusal of others to submit to the will of the people made it impossible for us to do our job, project fear, talking down britain etc ad nauseum. You’ll never win with them.

Topgear on Dave

If they admit they were wrong or deliberately told huge lies it could split the party. Unity is all that matters.

fash

Leroy42 wrote: »

Well they claim they don't want it. However, when asked why, or to give details of what needs to change it all starts to fall apart somewhat.

They want the end of FoM as it has been sold to them; that hoards of immigrants are coming from all over the EU to take the houses, the beds in the hospitals, the school and university places and the benefits. And also the jobs.

But the facts simply don't back that position up. The minumum hours contracts jobs are nothing to do with immigration. The ability of companies like Amazon to treat their workers like employees but pay them as contractors has nothing to do with FoM.

So even the claim that they want the end of FoM does not stand up to scrutiny.

Especially when you consider that 2/3rds of the migration even then had nothing to do with the EU - and that EU migration tended to be more temporary - EU citizens can easily go back home or to Germany or retire to Spain as stay in the UK. Migrants from non EU states cannot.

Inquitus

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Whatever about EEA membership and its business/trade advantages to UK, the FOM issue is one thing that many Brexiters do NOT want, no matter what. Well that and vassalage.

Tricky.

They conflate EU migration with non EU migration sadly, most of the migration they intensely dislike is nothing whatsoever to do with the EU and will not be resolved by leaving the EU. As has been proven EU migration is, and always has been, a net benefit to the Exchequer, as well as providing people to do much needed jobs in the NHS or picking fruit or whatever.

Joe_ Public

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

If they admit they were wrong or deliberately told huge lies it could split the party. Unity is all that matters.

I agree but “could” split the party? If they call what they have at the moment unity, I’d hate to actually see the tories in crisis.

Spanish Eyes

Leroy42 wrote: »

Well they claim they don't want it. However, when asked why, or to give details of what needs to change it all starts to fall apart somewhat.

They want the end of FoM as it has been sold to them; that hoards of immigrants are coming from all over the EU to take the houses, the beds in the hospitals, the school and university places and the benefits. And also the jobs.

But the facts simply don't back that position up. The minumum hours contracts jobs are nothing to do with immigration. The ability of companies like Amazon to treat their workers like employees but pay them as contractors has nothing to do with FoM.

So even the claim that they want the end of FoM does not stand up to scrutiny.

I agree with your point, but sadly the folk to whom you refer just refuse to analyse things to that degree at all. It is visceral IMV.

From stats I have read recently, there has been far more immigration from third countries than from EU during the A50 period. That's the opposite of what many Brexiters understood would happen.

Infini

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

If they admit they were wrong or deliberately told huge lies it could split the party. Unity is all that matters.

Unfortunately they're trying to keep the party unified between those with some cop on and those who are effectively UKIP grade subversives. The Brexiteers should have been ejected from the party years ago same with the ERG trolls. Now its coming back to bite them in the áss as a national laughing stock. Would be better to be rid of the headbanger wing of that party if they want to survive long term.

Leroy42

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I don't agree. If you're an idiot with delusions of grandeur and a complete lack of even a basic understanding of what the EU is (there's a clue in the name). Then yes, I can see how you voted for Brexit based off the above video.

Well, there is the saying that there is one born every minute. In terms of politics, it really is amazing the level of apathy across society. It is not represented on a thread like this, but even in my family and friends the level of disengagement is high.

Coupled with that, in the UK they have been fed a diet of the "evil EU" both the media and the politicians for years.

EU is so big, and in many ways so distant, that it is hard to see the direct impact. In Ireland it is far easier. Our economy, our society, our culture have all changed in line with our membership (not exactly of course but when looks back pre 1970 and now it is easy to assume that the EU played a major role).

But the same is not true in the UK. Sure London and other parts have gained, but even in those parts that have gained, like Sunderland etc, there has been massive failures so that the benefits of EU trade are outweighed by the lack of investment. But the benefits (car manufacturing for eg) is sold as down to the government, whilst the negatives (dropping standards in NHS, lack of police, lack of housing etc) is all pushed onto the blame of the faceless EU bureaucrats.

And people tend to give people within the media, and within politics, a certain level of deference. Just because of where they are rather than what they have done. When you are faced with seeing JRM on every news channel, being asked earnest questions and coming across as intelligent and educated and on top of his brief, then it is natural to assume that he must know what he is talking about. And when they are never challenged then it must be true right? Surely the media wouldn't just let people make stuff up, because normal people can't just make up stuff and expect to get away with it.

It is not about people being stupid, it is people being a mixture of ill-informed, un-involved and having a trust that someone else will sort it out.

Inquitus

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I agree with your point, but sadly the folk to whom you refer just refuse to analyse things to that degree at all. It is visceral IMV.

From stats I have read recently, there has been far more immigration from third countries than from EU during the A50 period. That's the opposite of what many Brexiters understood would happen.

Yep if your are an EU Migrant who does not want to work, there are many better countries in the EU to migrate to, such as Ireland (and many of the other 27), where benefits are much better, EU migrants who go to the UK go to work primarily.

fash

Joe_ Public wrote: »

There’s a certain comedic aspect to watching stuff like that now - and god knows there must be a veritable treasure trove of it - but the depressing thing is that most of them still won’t admit they were grievously wrong. The default position is something like, oh no, we got it totally right but the refusal of others to submit to the will of the people made it impossible for us to do our job, project fear, talking down britain etc ad nauseum. You’ll never win with them.

the most recent example of "when found out, keep lying anyway" (and towards the most blatant end) being Daniel " (fake) double first" Hannan's history of Ireland:
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1107976482675150848

(Inter alia, Oxford doesn't issue double firsts)

Joe_ Public

Leroy42 wrote: »

Well, there is the saying that there is one born every minute. In terms of politics, it really is amazing the level of apathy across society. It is not represented on a thread like this, but even in my family and friends the level of disengagement is high.

Coupled with that, in the UK they have been fed a diet of the "evil EU" both the media and the politicians for years.

EU is so big, and in many ways so distant, that it is hard to see the direct impact. In Ireland it is far easier. Our economy, our society, our culture have all changed in line with our membership (not exactly of course but when looks back pre 1970 and now it is easy to assume that the EU played a major role).

But the same is not true in the UK. Sure London and other parts have gained, but even in those parts that have gained, like Sunderland etc, there has been massive failures so that the benefits of EU trade are outweighed by the lack of investment. But the benefits (car manufacturing for eg) is sold as down to the government, whilst the negatives (dropping standards in NHS, lack of police, lack of housing etc) is all pushed onto the blame of the faceless EU bureaucrats.

And people tend to give people within the media, and within politics, a certain level of deference. Just because of where they are rather than what they have done. When you are faced with seeing JRM on every news channel, being asked earnest questions and coming across as intelligent and educated and on top of his brief, then it is natural to assume that he must know what he is talking about. And when they are never challenged then it must be true right? Surely the media wouldn't just let people make stuff up, because normal people can't just make up stuff and expect to get away with it.

It is not about people being stupid, it is people being a mixture of ill-informed, un-involved and having a trust that someone else will sort it out.

A lot of very good points there and pretty much on the money for me. I would just add that I would certainly not blame any rational resident from the north of England for voting leave. I spend a bit of time over and back and seeing how hard Cameron’s austerity cuts have bitten is a bracing experience. They’ve seen basic services butchered, high streets being boarded up and yet people down south and on the capital seem to them to be thriving. I feel their visceral anger and blame the usual political elements for feeding off it.

LuckyLloyd

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

EU wins itself some breathing space

This is just a complete misrepresentation of what actually happened from Adler. It's not the EU that's in the middle of a political and constitutional meltdown.

That is utterly ridiculous. Adler must be overtly trolling now with that type of transparent spin!

Shelga

How many Leave voters can honestly say they would have voted the way they did in 2016, if they could have seen how this was going to play out? Not them saying (pretending) it could have gone differently- if they had seen this exact scenario in the future, would they have voted to leave?

Of course another referendum isn’t good for the country. But if they have one, and Remain wins (still a big if, I know, depending on what question is asked), then Brexit will be in the news a hell of a lot less over the next 5 years than it will be if they vote any other way. If I was an apathetic Leave voter who was just fed up of the whole thing, I could see myself voting Remain just to make this stop.

Of course you’re going to have a significant portion of voters who will view it as a denial of democracy, but I think that argument loses merit if the result is 55%+ for Remain. At those numbers is would start to show that public opinion has genuinely shifted.

boggerman1

Dup going to vote no again.and in other breaking news a bear took a pooh in the woods.

Hurrache

Ulster says no. Dodds says it's an excusable failure for May not to get a better deal at this weeks summit and won't vote for her deal next week.

Inquitus

DUP not playing ball, full statement at the bottom of quoted section.

DUP accuses May of being 'far too willing to capitulate' to EU
Nigel Dodds, the DUP deputy leader, has released a statement about the EU summit.

Even by DUP standards, it is unusually harsh.

The DUP has accused Theresa May of being “far too willing to capitulate” to the EU. (This is exactly the same as the argument made by Tory Brexiters like Boris Johnson [eg, here], although it is not true to say that the EU always compromises at the last minute in negotiations. David Cameron, the last PM to conduct a major negotiation with the EU, found quite the opposite when he was renegotiating the terms of the UK’s membership.)
The DUP has criticised May for blaming MPs for the Brexit crisis in her speech on Wednesday.
It has played down prospects that it could be persuaded to vote for May’s deal next week, saying “nothing has changed as far as the withdrawal agreement is concerned”.

The prime minister missed an opportunity at the EU Council to put forward proposals which could have improved the prospects of an acceptable withdrawal agreement and help unite the country.

That failure is all the more disappointing and inexcusable given the clear divisions and arguments which became evident amongst EU member states when faced with outcomes they don’t like.

As we have always said, negotiations with the EU inevitably go down to the wire and the government has been far too willing to capitulate before securing the necessary changes which would get an agreement through the House of Commons.

The government has consistently settled for inferior compromises when they didn’t need to and when there was, and is, more negotiating with the EU to be done.

Lectures by the prime minister putting the blame on others cannot disguise the responsibility her government bears for the current debacle and the fact that her agreement has been twice overwhelmingly rejected in parliament.

The prime minister has now agreed with the EU to kick the can down the road for another two weeks and humiliatingly revoke her oft-stated pledge that the UK would leave the EU on 29th March.

Nothing has changed as far as the withdrawal agreement is concerned.

Nothing fundamentally turns on the formal ratification of documents which the attorney general has already said do not change the risk of the UK being trapped in the backstop.

The DUP has been very clear throughout that we want a deal which delivers on the referendum result and which works for all parts of the UK and for the EU as well. But it must be a deal that protects the Union.

That remains our abiding principle. We will not accept any deal which poses a long term risk to the constitutional and economic integrity of the United Kingdom.

Skelet0n

Shelga wrote: »

How many Leave voters can honestly say they would have voted the way they did in 2016, if they could have seen how this was going to play out? Not them saying (pretending) it could have gone differently- if they had seen this exact scenario in the future, would they have voted to leave?

Of course another referendum isn’t good for the country. But if they have one, and Remain wins (still a big if, I know, depending on what question is asked), then Brexit will be in the news a hell of a lot less over the next 5 years than it will be if they vote any other way. If I was an apathetic Leave voter who was just fed up of the whole thing, I could see myself voting Remain just to make this stop.

Of course you’re going to have a significant portion of voters who will view it as a denial of democracy, but I think that argument loses merit if the result is 55%+ for Remain. At those numbers is would start to show that public opinion has genuinely shifted.

The guardian did a piece from Wigan, the needle has barely moved. The disabled man living on £10 a month who can’t get a job and would still vote leave at 7:00 is particularly sad.
https://youtu.be/y4uIC0AwD68