Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Dubh Geannain

jochenstacker wrote: »

I think that people who will choose an ideology over sense, reason and evidence do have something inherently wrong with them. If we could eliminate this unfortunate human trend, earth would be a much better place.

"Something wrong with them" for me is an actual clinical medical condition. So I don't think there's anything wrong with them in that respect.

That people choose not to engage their faculties for critical thinking, empathy (interestingly 1 in 100 people are psychopaths) self evaluation/appraisal etc., while potentially a reflection of their intelligence, is definitely a result of being mentally lazy and embracing the warm feeling of being part of an ideology. The odds are stacked against them further by their peers and the confirmation biases that exist within their peers structures and who they have chosen to follow in the MSM and social media. In that sense you could say there is something wrong with them so I understand where you're coming from. But I don't believe there is something wrong with them in the medical sense.

Apologies if the post is a bit rambling.

mrbrianj

I suppose its worth think about how bad the No Deal crash out will be, in reality. It does deliver brexit for the UK, politicians will have followed the will of the people and stood up the the bullying EU. But it must be assumed that while Sky news is camped in Dover counting trucks, and BBC is busy covering the General Election/ Tory Leadership /Labour leadership battles, that in the peace and quiet some serious no BS trade dealing is taking places and at a rapid pace.

No deal wont be the long term status, within a few month of mild chaos - but before things get all Mad Max, there will be quite announcements of the new trading and travel partnership between the EU and UK ( and new laws to protect uk consumers etc.). The UK 'people' will be happy in the knowledge that they stuck it to the EU, and got what they wanted - which is slightly less than they had, and to their minds they have "won".

All this before we have to actually act to protect our market & control the border - that will be a slow process to start, and then only temporary measures.

Meanwhile, the EU is now dealing with stable UK, with all the headbangers gone off riding unicorns in the sunny uplands. Brino within 6 months. Regime change, Brussels style.

BobbyBobberson

Is is 2019 and this is reality in one of the worlds richest countries.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/22/secret-cabinet-office-document-reveals-chaotic-planning-for-no-deal-brexit

briany

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

I really do think, and there are a lot of them, the biggest hypocrisy amongst the Brexiteers is that according to them "You cannot ignore the vote of 17.4 million people" but in the same breath we can ignore that of 16.1 million.

David Cameron put his foot in it more than once on Brexit. On the morning after, he not only said he accepted the result, but also called on Remain to get on board with Brexit and help make it a success. I think it's these words which gave license to the 52% to lambaste the 48%.

I also think the biggest hypocrisy of Brexiteers is that they would never have accepted losing that referendum, and they would have found a speech telling them to help make the European project a success grossly insulting. Brexiteer politicians like Farage and Johnson were even banking on losing that referendum because their real plan was to ride a wave of Euro-scepticism to the very top echelons of politics, in a stable country.

arccosh

question...

How is this 3rd vote supposed to go ahead? I thought the speaker of the house pretty much stopped any potential of that?

Inquitus

mrbrianj wrote: »

Meanwhile, the EU is now dealing with stable UK, with all the headbangers gone off riding unicorns in the sunny uplands. Brino within 6 months. Regime change, Brussels style.

What Governmental change will we see in the UK though? Despite the complete omnishambles of Brexit, the Tories have generally polled better than Labour, it's only with the utter madness of the past 2 weeks that a couple of Polls have come out showing Labour with a small lead, a lead so small if it translated into a seat lead would require a coalition with the SNP to fashion a majority.

Meanwhile if the Tories manage to jettison May who is unencumbered by the possibility of a leadership challenge until Dec, they will most certainly elect one of the Brexit crew as their new leader. The MP's will whittle the contest down to 2 with a series of runoffs, and that final duo will be put to the 124k members of the Party who largely speaking are large majority hard Brexit leavers. This will leave us with the last ERG man standing as Tory leader, and likely PM, this would be Bojo, Gove, Raab, Hunt or Javid in all likelyhood.

If they manage to jettison May without the need for a GE then one would imagine there would be a GE in short order to legitimise this new PM. So in 6 months we end up with either a Tory, DUP coalition with a hard Brexiteer at the lead, which does us in Ireland little or no favours, or the slightly better prospect of Corbyn as PM propped up by the SNP which may bring us a much softer Brexit or a 2nd Referendum.

Regime change in London could be better for us, but equally likely could put us in a much worse position, with some sort of Tory managed no deal being the likely outcome. It would be much more comfortable to us, here in Ireland, if the results of a GE looked likely to bring about a more positive Brexit, but as I have said that is far from guaranteed!

Inquitus

arccosh wrote: »

question...

How is this 3rd vote supposed to go ahead? I thought the speaker of the house pretty much stopped any potential of that?

A majority in the commons can set aside Bercow's ruling, or he could say that with the extension agreed and containing the requirement that a MV3 be held, that there has been a substantial change and MV3 meets his criteria now, although MV4,5,etc. are now off the table. I would imagine due to the EU agreement he will let this final vote go ahead on Tues to pave the way for the HoC to seize control of proceedings in the middle of next week after MV3 fails. This would give the Commons 2 weeks to come up with a new plan to present to the EU ahead of the 12th April.

Interesting Odds on various outcomes:

prawnsambo

mrbrianj wrote: »

I suppose its worth think about how bad the No Deal crash out will be, in reality. It does deliver brexit for the UK, politicians will have followed the will of the people and stood up the the bullying EU. But it must be assumed that while Sky news is camped in Dover counting trucks, and BBC is busy covering the General Election/ Tory Leadership /Labour leadership battles, that in the peace and quiet some serious no BS trade dealing is taking places and at a rapid pace.

I think that's a very rose-tinted view of what will happen. The reality of a solo UK trying to make trade deals with countries and blocs bigger than itself (most of them) will be a hugely damaging exercise. The list of demands from such 'partners' will be long and painful. The truth of what a 'rule taker' actually is will then be pretty obvious.

mrbrianj wrote: »

No deal wont be the long term status, within a few month of mild chaos - but before things get all Mad Max, there will be quite announcements of the new trading and travel partnership between the EU and UK ( and new laws to protect uk consumers etc.). The UK 'people' will be happy in the knowledge that they stuck it to the EU, and got what they wanted - which is slightly less than they had, and to their minds they have "won".

All of this will take time. A lot of time. This is tearing up all the rule books and re-writing them from scratch whilst the unexpected consequences start revealing themselves. The UK hasn't even got the necessary expertise to do all this, having outsourced it to the EU for decades.

I'm not sure what you were basing all this on, but just figure what a multi-annual 9% hit to GDP for a country with GDP growth barely above 1% will mean.

briany

mrbrianj wrote: »

I suppose its worth think about how bad the No Deal crash out will be, in reality. It does deliver brexit for the UK, politicians will have followed the will of the people and stood up the the bullying EU. But it must be assumed that while Sky news is camped in Dover counting trucks, and BBC is busy covering the General Election/ Tory Leadership /Labour leadership battles, that in the peace and quiet some serious no BS trade dealing is taking places and at a rapid pace.

No deal wont be the long term status, within a few month of mild chaos - but before things get all Mad Max, there will be quite announcements of the new trading and travel partnership between the EU and UK ( and new laws to protect uk consumers etc.). The UK 'people' will be happy in the knowledge that they stuck it to the EU, and got what they wanted - which is slightly less than they had, and to their minds they have "won".

All this before we have to actually act to protect our market & control the border - that will be a slow process to start, and then only temporary measures.

Meanwhile, the EU is now dealing with stable UK, with all the headbangers gone off riding unicorns in the sunny uplands. Brino within 6 months. Regime change, Brussels style.

If the EU keeps pushing for extra regulations in NI in order to maintain an open border in Ireland, then it could be quite a while before we see any normalisation of the relationship.

If the EU gives the UK an FTA and agrees to a border in Ireland or some fudge, then this is giving Brexiteers essentially what they wanted in 2016.

Joe_ Public

arccosh wrote: »

question...

How is this 3rd vote supposed to go ahead? I thought the speaker of the house pretty much stopped any potential of that?

Supposedly by tacking an amendment onto it to make it seem different or by a parliamentary resolution. Wasn’t a problem really, but think it might be moot now because I’d have my doubts it’ll go before the house even as part of the indicative votes process. Just seems like another unnecessary humiliation for pm at this stage.

Inquitus

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Supposedly by tacking an amendment onto it to make it seem different or by a parliamentary resolution. Wasn’t a problem really, but think it might be moot now because I’d have my doubts it’ll go before the house even as part of the indicative votes process. Just seems like another unnecessary humiliation for pm at this stage.

I think they really need to let it go to vote one more time now, per the EU's guidance, to either stand or fall, and then be done with it. It will rubberstamp either their exit if passed, or more likely it is a necessary stepping stone to Parliament taking control and coming up with a softer proposal to take to Brussels in the run up to 12th April.

prawnsambo

Here's some of the Operation Yellowhammer risk assessment of no deal that was leaked to The Guardian

Edit: Couldn't hot link it, here it is now.

Inquitus

Link to the full Operation Yellowhammer ppt

fash

Sue de Nimes wrote: »

The term "double first" is informally used by Oxford graduates. The usage is widespread enough for Wikipedia to include it

"A "double first" at Oxford usually informally refers to first-class honours in both components of an undergraduate degree, i.e. Moderations/Prelims and the Final Honour School, or in both the bachelor's and master's components of an integrated master's degree."

Rather than Hannan being wrong, he was simply using an informal term that is widely used.

Something of an indictment of the the British education system.

charlie14

Joe_ Public wrote: »

A lot of very good points there and pretty much on the money for me. I would just add that I would certainly not blame any rational resident from the north of England for voting leave. I spend a bit of time over and back and seeing how hard Cameron’s austerity cuts have bitten is a bracing experience. They’ve seen basic services butchered, high streets being boarded up and yet people down south and on the capital seem to them to be thriving. I feel their visceral anger and blame the usual political elements for feeding off it.

Cameron`s austerity were a follow on from earlier savaging of the north of England by a previous Tory PM. Margaret Thatcher.
As it was elements of the Tory party who were the cheerleaders for leave then I feel it difficult to have a lot of sympathy for those in the north of England who voted leave.
I doubt there are many who had not heard the expression fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.

54and56

weemcd wrote: »

IMO, this is the most worrying trend worldwide at the moment. People have absolutely no ability for critical thought, they simply have sides or teams, whatever you want to call it and blindly follow a pre-set ideology. And it's getting worse, more entrenched.

Spot on. It's tribal and fundamentalist. They nail their colours to an idealistic mast and close their mind to any information which challenges that position regardless of the cost to them personally or society as a whole.

Trump very successfully tapped into that mindset as did Farage/Hard Brexiteers and no amount of impartial evidence or information will change that mantra.

It may effectually disprove Evolution!!

Enzokk

Shelga wrote: »

Why does no one ever ask the DUP- "ok, you advocated a Leave vote, what is your solution?" They get away with sniping from the sidelines, day after day after day. I'm so sick of listening to them.

They are just as culpable for this mess as they like to say May and her government are, and they need to be treated as such by the media.

I think they have been asked and their deal has been rejected. I am in no doubt the UK negotiators have asked the EU if they could have all the benefits and none of the downsides of EU membership. They may not have used those words but what do you think the rejection of current technology to rule out the border was?

That DUP statement is Brexit unicornism all rolled up in one. It has all the wishes of the Brexiters in a statement. The UK will get all they want and all they had to do was wait until the last moment to get it. What happens when they don't, which is what happened, is dismissed and they can continue living in their dream world. I blame Theresa May and the Tories for this. They have allowed the DUP to make a mockery of politics in NI and allowed them to waste away NI taxpayer money without consequences. The DUP feel they are untouchable because the Conservatives are treating them as such. NI is still part of the UK and if the corruption and waste from the Ash for Cash scandal was in any other part of the UK heads would have rolled. Because it is in NI they have been allowed to get away with it and all parties in NI is aware that there is no consequences to being incompetent. That incompetence is now wagging the tail of the Conservative majority. What is the response? Appoint Karen Bradley as SoS for NI.

It is incompetence stacked on top of incompetence and it would have been funny if it wasn't our lives that would have been affected as severely.

arccosh wrote: »

question...

How is this 3rd vote supposed to go ahead? I thought the speaker of the house pretty much stopped any potential of that?

The EU has given the Speaker his out as well by saying that there will be no 4th vote from their side either. They will not grant an extension for May to keep holding votes on her deal. Say what you want about the EU but Tusk seems to be very astute in his handling of crises that has happened under his watch. Can you imagine if there was a slightly more hard line president in charge instead of Tusk? We could have had one country exit the euro and we would be staring at no-deal in a weeks time.

ThunbergsAreGo

weemcd wrote: »

IMO, this is the most worrying trend worldwide at the moment. People have absolutely no ability for critical thought, they simply have sides or teams, whatever you want to call it and blindly follow a pre-set ideology. And it's getting worse, more entrenched.

Has this not always been the case?

CelticRambler

mrbrianj wrote: »

No deal wont be the long term status, within a few month of mild chaos - but before things get all Mad Max, there will be quite announcements of the new trading and travel partnership between the EU and UK ( and new laws to protect uk consumers etc.). The UK 'people' will be happy in the knowledge that they stuck it to the EU, and got what they wanted - which is slightly less than they had, and to their minds they have "won".

If the "UK people" are getting their info from a Europhobic press, I doubt very much that they'll think they've won. What we saw yesterday is going to be typical of EU-UK negotiations in the future: Brussels will ask the UK what it wants, politely listen to the waffle, then tell the UK what it's getting.

Strazdas

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

Spot on. It's tribal and fundamentalist. They nail their colours to an idealistic mast and close their mind to any information which challenges that position regardless of the cost to them personally or society as a whole.

Trump very successfully tapped into that mindset as did Farage/Hard Brexiteers and no amount of impartial evidence or information will change that mantra.

It may effectually disprove Evolution!!

It was never evidence based. Brexit was always an ideology or belief system. It's impossible to snap the Leave voters out of the ideology as they are wedded to it. The only thing that could bring them to their senses would be the country falling apart around them.

Itssoeasy

I tried to have sympathy for the ordinary people who voted to leave because I think they were sold a pup on what leaving the EU would mean. But then I hear business people say that a no deal Brexit could be catastrophic to their businesses due to delays in goods getting to Britain if its a no deal, yet they still are glad they voted to leave.

Strazdas

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I tried to have sympathy for the ordinary people who voted to leave because I think they were sold a pup on what leaving the EU would mean. But then I hear business people say that a no deal Brexit could be catastrophic to their businesses due to delays in goods getting to Britain if its a no deal, yet they still are glad they voted to leave.

Problem is the same people can't even admit they were lied to. Where is the backlash against Farage, Boris etc? It's simply not happening.

There is a huge amount of denial going on surrounding the whole thing.

Harry Palmr

That will have sweeping powers to intervene and order emergency measures, including mobilising the military, and getting rid of regulations if necessary, the document suggests.

“The committee will be available to take an overview of the situation and make any relevant decisions including on the following areas but not limited to legislation, identifying funding opportunities, allocation of national level resources (such as military, law enforcement or civil service resources, direction of government bodies and relaxation of regulations required at the ministerial level.”

Operation Yellowhammer actually has the potential for a sort of coup. As it could be used to justify the installing of a "permanent" government. Not necessarily this May led admin but something containing the ERG. Are we ready for President Rees-Mogg?

Shelga

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I tried to have sympathy for the ordinary people who voted to leave because I think they were sold a pup on what leaving the EU would mean. But then I hear business people say that a no deal Brexit could be catastrophic to their businesses due to delays in goods getting to Britain if its a no deal, yet they still are glad they voted to leave.

I’m done with ‘respecting the votes of Leavers’- that’s all well and good if you’re a British MP and you have to pretend in public that you respect their vote. But I’m Irish and I live in Ireland, and I’m tired of Leavers not giving a hoot about what their idiotic irresponsibility is doing to other people’s lives, small businesses, the Irish economy, EU citizens, etc. Just listened to some rabid leaver foaming at the mouth on LBC right now, saying leave means leaving the single market and the customs union. That wasn’t on the ballot paper, so I don’t really care what his interpretation of it is.

Hard Brexiters don’t care about other people, so I don’t respect their vote and I don’t respect them as people. Enough. Enough of trying to destroy other people’s lives and economies.

dresden8

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Operation Yellowhammer actually has the potential for a sort of coup. As it could be used to justify the installing of a "permanent" government. Not necessarily this May led admin but something containing the ERG. Are we ready for President Rees-Mogg?

It has an air of an Enabling Act about it all right.

prawnsambo

Shelga wrote: »

I’m done with ‘respecting the votes of Leavers’- that’s all well and good if you’re a British MP and you have to pretend in public that you respect their vote. But I’m Irish and I live in Ireland, and I’m tired of Leavers not giving a hoot about what their idiotic irresponsibility is doing to other people’s lives, small businesses, the Irish economy, EU citizens, etc. Just listened to some rabid leaver foaming at the mouth on LBC right now, saying leave means leaving the single market and the customs union. That wasn’t on the ballot paper, so I don’t really care what his interpretation of it is.

Hard Brexiters don’t care about other people, so I don’t respect their vote and I don’t respect them as people. Enough. Enough of trying to destroy other people’s lives and economies.

I think I listened to the same one. There are no words to describe the stupidity. The thing is though, it's driven by anger. And that anger has been fuelled by decades of political disenfranchisement. I can sympathise with that.

cml387

Reading the Guardian's leaked report about Operation Yellowhammer, it just strikes me that they bear some resemblance to the plans for the onset of war.

I would not be at all surprised if someone in Whitehall has taken out of the safe the "Warbook". It would make sense from the point of view of contingency planning for civil disturbance, food distribution, protection of transport links and continuation of government in extreme circumstances.

Inquitus

May's letter to MP's of this evening, worth a read, won't bother with MV3 if it has no chance of passing:

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1109168282249109504

MrMusician18

dresden8 wrote: »

It has an air of an Enabling Act about it all right.

When I had a look at it, I thought it sounded a lot like preparation for war.
Now I'm not suggesting that at all, but it seems they expect that this event could seemingly do war like damage to their economy.

Oftentimes when something historic is happening it's not obvious to those living through it and only with time do we recognise the significance of events. Not with this, we are truly witnessing something that historians will ponder over for years.

Joe_ Public

Inquitus wrote: »

May's letter to MP's of this evening, worth a read, won't bother with MV3 if it has no chance of passing:

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1109168282249109504

Thats why i dont think they'll bring the mv forward at all. What's the point? The dup was the final nail in the coffin, although i think it was goosed anyway from the moment she made her incendiary speech on wednesday night. Not bringing it before the house seems exactly the same as it failing, only she doesn't have to suffer the appalling humiliation of seeing it fail by an even bigger margin again.