Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

ThePanjandrum

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Just for the benefit of both, the Titanic sank on April the 15th, having being hit by the Iceberg on April 14th and beginning her voyage on April 10th.

More than 1,500 people died on the Titanic, you want to turn the deaths into a political joke.

Capt'n Midnight

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

More than 1,500 people died on the Titanic, you want to turn the deaths into a political joke.

Less than half the number who died the last time there was a Hard Border in Ireland.

Inquitus

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

That means 250,000 tops. Organisers grossly overestimate the crowds, often they say its around three times as large as it really is, The Losers' Vote campaign is prone to greater greater exaggeration than normal.

A lot more than the 10 lost souls who turned up at the start of Farage's laughable event. Anyways the odds of a 2nd referendum are shortening by the day, so maybe these so called "losers" will end up winning, now Brexit has had its Emperors new clothes removed.

Capt'n Midnight

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

That means 250,000 tops. Organisers grossly overestimate the crowds, often they say its around three times as large as it really is, The Losers' Vote campaign is prone to greater greater exaggeration than normal.

At the last count the Leave March had 57 , and that included counting 17 stragglers who had separated from the main group.

https://twitter.com/bydonkeys?lang=en

Irish Praetorian

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

More than 1,500 people died on the Titanic, you want to turn the deaths into a political joke.

You will observe I made neither the original joke nor the subsequent response; instead I wished to correct a factual error that I noted. This being the Brexit thread I think its actually quite important to tackle factual falsehoods as they arise, rather than daubing them on the side of a bus. In either case I believe any development of this point would be off topic so perhaps we ought return to the central issue.

Working class heroes

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

More than 1,500 people died on the Titanic, you want to turn the deaths into a political joke.

An event which was easily avoided. Sound familiar?

irishproduce

prawnsambo wrote: »

Here's some of the Operation Yellowhammer risk assessment of no deal that was leaked to The Guardian

Edit: Couldn't hot link it, here it is now.

Nonsense, that was a strategic leak and because it is a strategic leak then it can be assumed the parties who prepared that have an agenda and would prepare the leaked "document" with same in mind.
The fact there is a part redacted shows it was not an incidental leak. The leakers and preparers of that document redacted something.
I wouldn't read too much in to half that nonsense.
Believe half of what you see and none of what you hear

briany

This UK government has been completely outmanoeuvred by the EU. In fairness, it hasn't really taken much on the EU's part. They've just stood by, cool and collected, arms folded, while the UK staggered about, hitting itself.

There would be an element of schadenfreude, but the level of humiliation felt by the UK is going to leave a bad taste in their mouths and I fear a long-term souring of relations that will make future cooperation that much more difficult.

josip

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Just for the benefit of both, the Titanic sank on April the 15th, having being hit by the Iceberg on April 14th and beginning her voyage on April 10th.

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

You will observe I made neither the original joke nor the subsequent response; instead I wished to correct a factual error that I noted. This being the Brexit thread I think its actually quite important to tackle factual falsehoods as they arise, rather than daubing them on the side of a bus. In either case I believe any development of this point would be off topic so perhaps we ought return to the central issue.

Mods please remove if too far off topic, but Irish Praetorian is keen to have falsehoods tackled as they arise.

I believe it was the Titanic that hit the iceberg and not the other way around as he has hannanised.

Joe_ Public

irishproduce wrote: »

Nonsense, that was a strategic leak and because it is a strategic leak then it can be assumed the parties who prepared that have an agenda and would prepare the leaked "document" with same in mind.
The fact there is a part redacted shows it was not an incidental leak. The leakers and preparers of that document redacted something.
I wouldn't read too much in to half that nonsense.
Believe half of what you see and none of what you hear

Have to say it did cross my mind that there was something a little fishy about that document being made public at a time when the pm was critically trying to focus people’s minds on the looming spectre of no deal. Thought i was just being a bit cynical about it, though.

irishproduce

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

One of the major mistakes was treating such a narrow win like a football match. 'We won, you lost, get over it'. That's majoritarian absolutism not democracy. Democracy would consider the views of those who 'lost' especially when it was so close.

Nobody in Ireland thinks that a majority vote for a United Ireland would mean that the views of Unionists could be disregarded - quite the opposite - they'd have to be incorporated into all future decisions.

Not so with other referendums like abortion, same sex marriage. The message is deal with it, it is democracy or as we repeatedly hear our politicians state with assuredness "The people have voted for ...".

I am merely picking out two recent ones, but the general rule with a referendum is that per democracy, the majority rule is what is counted.

It is actually treating the people of UK like children talking down to them about the costs of their decision to leave. Has anyone considered that principled people are willing to pay a price for things worth having?
Mightn't be what we want them to do over here, but they have chosen to do something and I am sure they are adult enough to manage the costs of that course of action.

McMurphy

Amirani wrote: »

Agreed. But same goes for those who vote for Sinn Fein in British Parliamentary Elections. Essentially spoiling your vote.

If the people of Northern Ireland had any cop on after this debacle they'd move away from voting for these 2 basket cases.

This gets regurgitated time and time again on boards (and elsewhere on the net to be fair)

Many of Sinn Feins voters vote for them because they abstain from the British parliament.

If nationalists wanted to be represented in Britains Parliament they have an option to vote for the SDLP, but that's showing no sign of happening anytime soon.

irishproduce

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Have to say it did cross my mind that there was something a little fishy about that document being made public at a time when the pm was critically trying to focus people’s minds on the looming spectre of no deal. Thought i was just being a bit cynical about it, though.

I suggest you are quite right to feel cynical.
There are backstage actors up to dirty tricks on both sides.
The ultimate desire of both is to stop brexit.

The Black Oil

Uri Geller is on BBC 5 Live now, Brexiting. Not joking.

Enzokk

irishproduce wrote: »

Not so with other referendums like abortion, same sex marriage. The message is deal with it, it is democracy or as we repeatedly hear our politicians state with assuredness "The people have voted for ...".

I am merely picking out two recent ones, but the general rule with a referendum is that per democracy, the majority rule is what is counted.

It is actually treating the people of UK like children talking down to them about the costs of their decision to leave. Has anyone considered that principled people are willing to pay a price for things worth having?
Mightn't be what we want them to do over here, but they have chosen to do something and I am sure they are adult enough to manage the costs of that course of action.

Do you really not understand the difference between the referendums held in Ireland and the UK the past few years? You are comparing apples to oranges on how a referendum should be run and how it definitely should not be.

L1011

irishproduce wrote: »

Not so with other referendums like abortion, same sex marriage. The message is deal with it, it is democracy or as we repeatedly hear our politicians state with assuredness "The people have voted for ...".

I am merely picking out two recent ones, but the general rule with a referendum is that per democracy, the majority rule is what is counted.

It is actually treating the people of UK like children talking down to them about the costs of their decision to leave. Has anyone considered that principled people are willing to pay a price for things worth having?
Mightn't be what we want them to do over here, but they have chosen to do something and I am sure they are adult enough to manage the costs of that course of action.

You are comparing binding referendums, with sanctions for illegal activity; to an advisory referendum that it has already acknowledged would have been overturned and re-run had it been an election with the level of fraud from the Leave side; but can't be as it was only advisory.

Atlantic Dawn

Will make an interesting week coming up if we are told midweek it's a Friday departure, shops will be emptied of the basics, like the snow but much worse as people will be able to get to the shops without a problem.

irishproduce

irishproduce wrote: »

Not so with other referendums like abortion, same sex marriage. The message is deal with it, it is democracy or as we repeatedly hear our politicians state with assuredness "The people have voted for ...".

I am merely picking out two recent ones, but the general rule with a referendum is that per democracy, the majority rule is what is counted.

Abortion: Yes: 66.4 No: 33.6% Turnout: 64.13%
SSM: Yes: 62% No: 38% Turnout: 61%
Brexit: Leave 51.89% Remain: 48.11% Turnout: 72%

One of these is not like the other.

Sparko

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Will make an interesting week coming up if we are told midweek it's a Friday departure, shops will be emptied of the basics, like the snow but much worse as people will be able to get to the shops without a problem.

As I understand it the 29th is off the table now, regardless of what happens next week the new cliff edge is 12th April.

Charles Babbage

L1011 wrote: »

You are comparing binding referendums, with sanctions for illegal activity; to an advisory referendum that it has already acknowledged would have been overturned and re-run had it been an election with the level of fraud from the Leave side; but can't be as it was only advisory.

he is comparing the triumphalism and poor grace of the winners in both cases, not the advisory or binding nature of the referendum.

Strazdas

irishproduce wrote: »

Not so with other referendums like abortion, same sex marriage. The message is deal with it, it is democracy or as we repeatedly hear our politicians state with assuredness "The people have voted for ...".

I am merely picking out two recent ones, but the general rule with a referendum is that per democracy, the majority rule is what is counted.

It is actually treating the people of UK like children talking down to them about the costs of their decision to leave. Has anyone considered that principled people are willing to pay a price for things worth having?
Mightn't be what we want them to do over here, but they have chosen to do something and I am sure they are adult enough to manage the costs of that course of action.

Oh really? And where does inflicting pain on the rest of population who didn't vote for it fit into that?

Why should everyone sit back while a bunch of right wing English nationalists take a sledgehammer to their country.

hill16bhoy

Deleted User wrote: »

Abortion: Yes: 66.4 No: 33.6% Turnout: 64.13%
SSM: Yes: 62% No: 38% Turnout: 61%
Brexit: Leave 51.89% Remain: 48.11% Turnout: 72%

One of these is not like the other.

The main way the third one is not like the other two is that one of the options was completely undefined. In the first two the options were defined and known by everybody.

There is no defined version of Brexit which has majority support over Remain.

Brexit was an abstract fantasy.

The "will of the people" was for an abstract fantasy, and an abstract fantasy is by definition undeliverable.

Anything that is deliverable is highly unpopular.

Lesson: A referendum in which one of the options is an abstract fantasy, especially on an issue of such monumental importance, is insanity.

Capt'n Midnight

Sparko wrote: »

As I understand it the 29th is off the table now, regardless of what happens next week the new cliff edge is 12th April.

As the law stands the UK will crash out at 11pm on Friday.


It's up to May to not go completely out of her way to keep blocking the will of parliament.


4 working days left unless the Tories allow the House of Commons to sit on Friday.

Charles Babbage

hill16bhoy wrote: »

Lesson: A referendum in which one of the options is an abstract fantasy, especially on an issue of such monumental importance, is insanity.

It is insanity if you have an irresponsible electorate willing for vote for something not defined.

"If you don't know, vote No" from Irish campaigns was a reasonable position as if someone wants you to change something they have to explain it to you.

BonnieSituation

Charles Babbage wrote: »

he is comparing the triumphalism and poor grace of the winners in both cases, not the advisory or binding nature of the referendum.

What triumphalism occurred in Ireland?

Charles Babbage wrote: »

It is insanity if you have an irresponsible electorate willing for vote for something not defined.

"If you don't know, vote No" from Irish campaigns was a reasonable position as if someone wants you to change something they have to explain it to you.

That's the basic tenet of anything I ever explain to people when asked and if they still aren't sure come referendum day then I suggest they vote "no".

Solid mantra.

briany

Charles Babbage wrote: »

It is insanity if you have an irresponsible electorate willing for vote for something not defined.

"If you don't know, vote No" from Irish campaigns was a reasonable position as if someone wants you to change something they have to explain it to you.

You have to ask the question of how the electorate got to the point where they would vote for Brexit. It wasn't that insane that a referendum was put to the UK because their political class consistently failed to confront and defeat the rising tide of euroscepticism. Therefore, it was always going to come to a head.

Spook_ie

Here's a question to consider, given the EUs statement

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European Council Press release 21/03/2019 23:30
European Council (Art. 50) conclusions, 21 March 2019
The European Council takes note of the letter of Prime Minister Theresa May of 20 March 2019.
In response, the European Council approves the Instrument relating to the Withdrawal Agreement and the Joint Statement supplementing the Political Declaration agreed between the European Commission and the government of the United Kingdom in Strasbourg on 11 March 2019.
The European Council agrees to an extension until 22 May 2019, provided the Withdrawal Agreement is approved by the House of Commons next week. If the Withdrawal Agreement is not approved by the House of Commons next week, the European Council agrees to an extension until 12 April 2019 and expects the United Kingdom to indicate a way forward before this date for consideration by the European Council.
The European Council reiterates that there can be no opening of the Withdrawal Agreement that was agreed between the Union and the United Kingdom in November 2018. Any unilateral commitment, statement or other act should be compatible with the letter and the spirit of the Withdrawal Agreement.
The European Council calls for work to be continued on preparedness and contingency at all levels for the consequences of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal, taking into account all possible outcomes.
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Is there any point on discussing anything other than May's deal, that paragraph would seem to rule out every other option that people are discussing.

Joe_ Public

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

As the law stands the UK will crash out at 11pm on Friday.


It's up to May to not go completely out of her way to keep blocking the will of parliament.


4 working days left unless the Tories allow the House of Commons to sit on Friday.

As the law stands it is currently Friday but that’s going to change to 12 April next week, isn’t it? The pm says in her letter to MPs that she’s going to seek a statutory instrument to make the change and seems she doesn’t need parliamentary approval to do so.

Joe_ Public

Spook_ie wrote: »

Here's a question to consider, given the EUs statement



Is there any point on discussing anything other than May's deal, that paragraph would seem to rule out every other option that people are discussing.

Interesting point but couldn’t see how alternative options like customs union wouldn’t be in accordance with the “spirit” of the WA. What i found interesting yesterday was quite a lot of analysts focusing on the accompanying political declaration which doesn’t get nearly as much attention but could turn out to be an important element.

Zubeneschamali

mrbrianj wrote: »

I suppose its worth think about how bad the No Deal crash out will be, in reality. It does deliver brexit for the UK, politicians will have followed the will of the people and stood up the the bullying EU. But it must be assumed that while Sky news is camped in Dover counting trucks, and BBC is busy covering the General Election/ Tory Leadership /Labour leadership battles, that in the peace and quiet some serious no BS trade dealing is taking places and at a rapid pace.

Well, no.

From the very first news of the first day of trade talks with the EU there will be screams from the Brexiteers that Brexit is being betrayed, treachery, this is not what we voted for, will of the people ...

Because, of course, the first items in trade talks will be the divorce bill money owed, rights of EU citizens in the UK and the backstop.

And this time, the UK negotiating team will be under real pressure as the port of Dover collapses, the M20 turns into a lorry park, hospitals start announcing the number of days before they run out of medicine x and y, panic buying clears the shelves in supermarkets, there are hour long queues for petrol, troops start appearing around Westminster...