Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

More than 1,500 people died on the Titanic, you want to turn the deaths into a political joke.

I was not making a joke, I was making a point about the foolishness of steaming at top speed into dangerous waters because you believe you are invulnerable.

Enzokk

Joe_ Public wrote: »

As the law stands it is currently Friday but that’s going to change to 12 April next week, isn’t it? The pm says in her letter to MPs that she’s going to seek a statutory instrument to make the change and seems she doesn’t need parliamentary approval to do so.

I have seen it mentioned that it could be the case the if the UK doesn't pass the SI in time they will effectively be outside of the EU legally in the UK but still inside the EU outside of the UK. The EU will still consider them as members as the EU will have moved the date to the 12th April as exit day.

Zubeneschamali

irishproduce wrote: »

It is actually treating the people of UK like children talking down to them about the costs of their decision to leave. Has anyone considered that principled people are willing to pay a price for things worth having?

If the Brexiteers had run a campaign saying Brexit will cost the UK about 10% of everything they have, and they had still won, I would think that was mad but there would be no arguing with it.

But of course the Brexiteers won by hotly denying this, and the British public don't believe it still. They are going to have to learn it the hard way, I am afraid, and they are not going to be happy.

Will they Keep Calm and Carry On? Perhaps - many commentators believed that the Irish public would not accept the measures applied after the 2008 crash, but we did, we got on with it and came through. With some Blitz Spirit, the UK could do the same.

Or people could get really very angry indeed. Time will tell.

Zubeneschamali

Strazdas wrote: »

Why should everyone sit back while a bunch of right wing English nationalists take a sledgehammer to their country.

I understand it's not a sledgehammer, it's a Yellowhammer.

Shelga

Say it ends up being a no deal exit due to sheer incompetence.

Could the EU and the UK agree to some temporary measures to limit the catastrophic effects? Ie in the car industry, could they agree that 0% tariffs will apply both ways for up to 12 months, until more formal trade agreements are reached? In order to stop the immediate decimation of the car industry in the UK.

Or is this just wishful thinking?

listermint

Shelga wrote: »

Say it ends up being a no deal exit due to sheer incompetence.

Could the EU and the UK agree to some temporary measures to limit the catastrophic effects? Ie in the car industry, could they agree that 0% tariffs will apply both ways for up to 12 months, until more formal trade agreements are reached? In order to stop the immediate decimation of the car industry in the UK.

Or is this just wishful thinking?

Why should they.

The EU will agree to measured that keep planes flying and logistics working only where it solves members problems.

It's not there to give a free ride to the UK.

Akrasia

hill16bhoy wrote: »

The main way the third one is not like the other two is that one of the options was completely undefined. In the first two the options were defined and known by everybody.

There is no defined version of Brexit which has majority support over Remain.

Brexit was an abstract fantasy.

The "will of the people" was for an abstract fantasy, and an abstract fantasy is by definition undeliverable.

Anything that is deliverable is highly unpopular.

Lesson: A referendum in which one of the options is an abstract fantasy, especially on an issue of such monumental importance, is insanity.

Yep. If the SSM referendum was just to repeal all marriage laws, and it passsed by 2%, the swing vote could have been from people who wanted to marry their sister/hamster/favourite pair of shoes...

In ireland we hold votes on specific constitutional changes and then debate how those changes could affect our laws. In the Brexit referendum it was ludicrously vague and the leave campaign purposely avoided specific details of what leave actually meant

kalych

Shelga wrote: »

Say it ends up being a no deal exit due to sheer incompetence.

Could the EU and the UK agree to some temporary measures to limit the catastrophic effects? Ie in the car industry, could they agree that 0% tariffs will apply both ways for up to 12 months, until more formal trade agreements are reached? In order to stop the immediate decimation of the car industry in the UK.

Or is this just wishful thinking?

I guess the issue is the sheer number of areas that will require these mini-agreements. The EU will probably continue to act unilaterally where it may be of benefit to them and the UK are likely to reciprocate, like airplane access.

0% tariffs is impossible from an EU side based on the WTO rules:

Most-favoured-nation (MFN): treating other people equally Under the WTO agreements, countries cannot normally discriminate between their trading partners. Grant someone a special favour (such as a lower customs duty rate for one of their products) and you have to do the same for all other WTO members.

murphaph

Spook_ie wrote: »

Here's a question to consider, given the EUs statement



Is there any point on discussing anything other than May's deal, that paragraph would seem to rule out every other option that people are discussing.

The WA is required for any type of Brexit deal. If the UK chooses a softer path then the WA would still be a prerequisite to starting negotiations on that. The political declaration can be modified to state that the UK intends on remaining permanently in the customs union and single market.

prawnsambo

murphaph wrote: »

The WA is required for any type of Brexit deal. If the UK chooses a softer path then the WA would still be a prerequisite to starting negotiations on that. The political declaration can be modified to state that the UK intends on remaining permanently in the customs union and single market.

Yep. Which is why all the pearl clutching and hysteria about May's deal is wholly misplaced. Any future government can change the direction of the talks post brexit and end up in a completely different place from where it started. The only actual nailed on bits are the backstop, the divorce bill and citizen's rights.

prawnsambo

irishproduce wrote: »

I suggest you are quite right to feel cynical.
There are backstage actors up to dirty tricks on both sides.
The ultimate desire of both is to stop brexit.

That looks a tad contradictory?

Akrasia

Scarinae wrote: »

Uri Geller (the fella who claims to bend spoons with his mind) has published an open letter to Theresa May saying he's going to telepathically stop Brexit:

So he's telepathically influencing her by writing her a letter, just like I telepathically influence the pizza delivery driver by calling them and giving them my address

iguana

Deleted User wrote: »

Abortion: Yes: 66.4 No: 33.6% Turnout: 64.13%
SSM: Yes: 62% No: 38% Turnout: 61%
Brexit: Leave 51.89% Remain: 48.11% Turnout: 72%

One of these is not like the other.

An even bigger difference. The changes in law following those two referenda in Ireland made very little difference to the lives of those who voted against them. Don't want to marry a person of your gender? Then don't. Don't want an abortion? Don't have one. On the other hand, those who voted remain are having their lives directly impacted by the choice made by those who voted leave. They will lose a variety of rights which many people have enjoyed their whole lives. They will likely become poorer as prices of European imports rise and the value of Sterling falls. Many have lost jobs. Food standards will almost certainly drop. And many, many other small cuts. They aren't comparable situations at all.

Water John

Spook, that line does not refer to discussing alternative deals or options. It was inserted specifically to prevent the UK Govn't offering specific assurances to the DUP, which they had hinted at, that would not be in the spirit of the WA.

prawnsambo

Water John wrote: »

Spook, that line does not refer to discussing alternative deals or options. It was inserted specifically to prevent the UK Govn't offering specific assurances to the DUP, which they had hinted at, that would not be in the spirit of the WA.

Yeah. The word 'unilateral' should be a clue as to what it means.

Leroy42

Shelga wrote: »

Say it ends up being a no deal exit due to sheer incompetence.

Could the EU and the UK agree to some temporary measures to limit the catastrophic effects? Ie in the car industry, could they agree that 0% tariffs will apply both ways for up to 12 months, until more formal trade agreements are reached? In order to stop the immediate decimation of the car industry in the UK.

Or is this just wishful thinking?

It is not wishful thinking, it is the very basis for the entire Brexit process. That everything can be changed, but nothing will change.

The UK can be in and out, the EU will have to break all its rules just to save trade with the UK.

Now lets looks at that position. It is on the basis that the EU will sacrifice its core to get a trade deal. Much like it did with the US and how they tore up the EU standards in agriculture?

Water John

You could sorta guess which country had it included.

Leroy42

And reading the DUP statement, it reads so much like the statements they put out in terms of issues within NI. Their position is that TM simply has to stand strong, refuse to yield, dig her heals in until the EU crack.

The problem is that, unlike in NI, a no deal means massive changes, whilst in NI refusing to move on some NI issue means that things stay the way they are, which suits the DUP in many cases.

They are completely different scenarios.

Irish Praetorian

josip wrote: »

Mods please remove if too far off topic, but Irish Praetorian is keen to have falsehoods tackled as they arise.

I believe it was the Titanic that hit the iceberg and not the other way around as he has hannanised.

I will gladly accept the rebuke if for no other reason than a chance to popularize the new expression of "Hannanising" history XD

Gringo180

Is democracy dead and buried in the UK? The people voted to leave the E.U so why are the government dragging there feet?

robindch

Stand back everybody, Uri Geller, or somebody posing as him, is threatening to use his telepathic powers to stop Brexit:

https://twitter.com/JewishTelegraph/status/1109145636216152065

lawred2

Gringo180 wrote: »

Is democracy dead and buried in the UK? The people voted to leave the E.U so why are the government dragging there feet?

Welcome to the thread. Your viewpoint is fresh and new. I hadn't thought of Brexit in terms like this.

Just get on with it.

Who cares about collateral damage, economics, international treaties, diplomatic relations or parliamentary procedures.

Just lift those feet.

Sorted

Gringo180

lawred2 wrote: »

Welcome to the thread. Your viewpoint is fresh and new. I hadn't thought of Brexit in terms like this.

Just get on with it.

Who cares about collateral damage, economics, international treaties, diplomatic relations or parliamentary procedures.

Just lift those feet.

Sorted

Lol.

So why even have the referendum in the first place? Its like something that would happen in China or Russia. Democracy is a myth, unless it suits the establishment of course.

Tell me how

Gringo180 wrote: »

Is democracy dead and buried in the UK? The people voted to leave the E.U so why are the government dragging there feet?

• Because it has become apparent that actually leaving would be nothing like it was promised it was going to be before the referendum was held.
• Because it is now clear that leaving as they thought they could is incompatible with their responsibilities to the Good Friday Agreement.
• Because they haven't been able to identify a single approach within the House of Commons which will receive the support of the majority of the members of that house.
• Because all those who said it would be the simplest thing in the world have not being able to provide a single workable solution on how to make this happen.
• Because nearly 3 years have passed since the referendum and it is increasingly likely that there is no longer a majority of people in the UK who wish to leave.

Enzokk

Gringo180 wrote: »

Lol.

So why even have the referendum in the first place? Its like something that would happen in China or Russia. Democracy is a myth, unless it suits the establishment of course.

Hindsight is 20/20 off course, but there was no way that the UK could leave the EU without a pre-determined outcome of single market membership and customs union or accepting that Northern Ireland will be separated from the rest of the UK. Now the problem is these 2 options will not be enough for those that want to leave the EU and thus we find ourselves where we find ourselves.

It is not that democracy has failed, it is that those that tried to use democracy failed at doing it properly. They failed to take into account the history of Northern Ireland and the GFA and the impact the EU has had with this and arrogantly thought it would not be a problem.

lawred2

Gringo180 wrote: »

Lol.

So why even have the referendum in the first place? Its like something that would happen in China or Russia. Democracy is a myth, unless it suits the establishment of course.

No idea why such an open ended poorly considered referendum was held in the first place.

Definition of reckless stupidity.

Donald Trump

Gringo180 wrote: »

Is democracy dead and buried in the UK? The people voted to leave the E.U so why are the government dragging there feet?

Referendums are not binding in UK because of their belief that they can be manipulated by extremists and dictators


Isn't it ironic, don't ya think

Gringo180

Surely we can come to an agreement with the Brits over the north, but no the pro E.U cronies we have in power would rather jeopardise peace with our neighbours for what they want, in what will be a failed superstate of European nations? Its complete and utter madness. As the years go by our sovereignty is slowly but surely being eroded away.

Donald Trump

Gringo180 wrote: »

Surely we can come to an agreement with the Brits over the north, but no the pro E.U cronies we have in power would rather jeopardise peace with our neighbours for what they want, in what will be a failed superstate of European nations? Its complete and utter madness. As the years go by our sovereignty is slowly but surely being eroded away.

Yeah, sure didn't the Brits treat us well over the past few hundred years until, like a crying mother cutting the apron strings of her adult child, gently pushed us out towards independence for our own good


Not the mention, they are the only ones that understand us and our history. #danielhannon

mickoneill31

Gringo180 wrote: »

Is democracy dead and buried in the UK? The people voted to leave the E.U so why are the government dragging there feet?

Have you been paying any attention at all to the UK government over the last two years? They want to leave and they want to keep all the good parts of the EU treaties.
They can pick one. Trouble is they haven't been able to agree amongst themselves. So they're paralysed. And they slightly over estimated the importance of the UK to the rest of the EU so they got a crappy deal.

They can leave tomorrow if they want. Trouble is they're trying to minimise the damage to the economy while the hard Brexiters won't be affected and will probably profit from a hard Brexit.

The leave promoters promised itd be the easiest deal in history. They've been shown to be either liers or incompetent or both.