Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

recedite

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

It disposed of security infrastructure which would be required for the reintroduction of a visible border.



No it was an actual territorial claim that was diluted to an aspiration. The aspiration remains.

_______________________________________________________________________

Article 3 (1)

It is the firm will of the Irish Nation, in harmony and friendship, to unite all the people who share the territory of the island of Ireland

_______________________________________________________________________

You're right a UI is still a legitimate aspiration for RoI, but the territorial claim was removed. And a no deal Brexit makes a UI even more likely to happen.


So lets look at your link there. The bits in red.

1. Removal of British Army and RUC security installations already happened. Customs control is not the same thing. We already have smuggling of cigarettes and diesel. And we have Irish customs officers trying to prevent it. The GFA does not prevent customs control. It prevents a militarised border.
2. "Status of NI cannot be changed without consent of its people".
Customs control at an existing border does not change the onstitutional status of NI. Creating a new customs border in the Irish sea, separating off NI from Britain, would be a change to its status.
3. The 3 minor points are red herrings.

Capt'n Midnight

recedite wrote: »

You don't have to be on the UK register of electors to sign an online petition.
You probably don't even have to be in the UK.

Oddly enough lots of UK citizens live abroad.

So far the numbers don't look skewed. And it's not as if the Russian bots will be voting to stay.




BBC news
notice any difference between the headline and the first line of the story ?

Brexit march: Thousands join referendum protest

Tens of thousands are marching through central London calling for another EU referendum, as MPs search for a way out of the Brexit impasse.

Meanwhile Tens are marching in the March to Leave

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1109425116545499136

Strazdas

road_high wrote: »

How’s the people’s march going in London?

Huge numbers from what I can see. The weather is nice enough and there seems to be hundreds of thousands marching.

Donald Trump

recedite wrote: »

It was not ratified by parliament, therefore the UK has not agreed it.
A better analogy is this.. you down the pub and borrow 20 quid, signing a document to say your dad will refund the money.

What are you talking about in fairness.

Do you think that if the UK parliament had ratified it, and then later scrapped it, that somehow that would give Ireland/EU power to stop them scrapping it?



You do a deal with the person sitting in front of you who is there as an official representative of a company. Maybe they are going to do a job for you. Build a house or whatever. You come to an agreement, you sign off. The person goes off, comes back a few weeks later and says "oh yeah, that thing I agreed to. We don't want to do it any more under those terms".
You'd be fully entitled to say "Well that was the deal and the terms. If you want to continue then you can honour them. If not, then you don't get the job".

devnull

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

BBC news
notice any difference between the headline and the first line of the story ?

Brexit march: Thousands join referendum protest

Originally the British State TV (lets call them what they are) article was saying that there were 'several thousand' marching, I believe, but they've since changed the first line to reference tens of thousands even if they haven't adjusted the headline itself. A lot of other places are talking about hundreds of thousands.

There's also been talk on the BBC about the numbers of the petition about rescinding article 50 being exaggerated due to the use of bots, which I haven't seen anywhere else. There's now an article saying they're probably not the result of bots, but even suggesting something and then saying it probably isn't true still puts a conspiracy theory out there.

Unfortunately the days of the BBC being balanced are long gone. They will do whatever their paymasters tell them to do. They are about as impartial on Brexit as Fox News are on Trump these days unfortunately.

Charles Babbage

recedite wrote: »

If the UK and NI leaves without a deal, how is the EU going to exert this level of control over a part of the UK and NI, against the will of its people?

The will of the people of NI is to remain in the EU. How is London going going to exert this level of control over a part of the UK required to thwart their will. The usual stuff I suppose, helicopters, beatings, shooting people on the streets, etc

Strazdas

devnull wrote: »

Originally the British State TV (lets call them what they are) article was saying that there were 'several thousand' marching but they've since changed the first line to reference tens of thousands even if they haven't adjusted the headline itself. A lot of other places are talking about hundreds of thousands.

Unfortunately the days of the BBC being balanced are long gone. They will do whatever their paymasters tell them to do. They are about as impartial on Brexit as Fox News are on Trump these days unfortunately.

Agree 100%. Their coverage of Brexit has been a complete and utter disgrace. They have gone AWOL while the country has been hijacked by the hard right.

Headshot

devnull wrote: »

Originally the British State TV (lets call them what they are) article was saying that there were 'several thousand' marching but they've since changed the first line to reference tens of thousands even if they haven't adjusted the headline itself. A lot of other places are talking about hundreds of thousands.

Unfortunately the days of the BBC being balanced are long gone. They will do whatever their paymasters tell them to do. They are about as impartial on Brexit as Fox News are on Trump these days unfortunately.

Yup when you have journalist chasing after Bercow that's just a very low point for the BBC

road_high

Strazdas wrote: »

Huge numbers from what I can see. The weather is nice enough and there seems to be hundreds of thousands marching.

Yea just see it on Sky news looks like a huge crowd, several of the surrounding feeder streets look thronged

Enzokk

road_high wrote: »

Yea just see it on Sky news looks like a huge crowd, several of the surrounding feeder streets look thronged

Here is a link to a Guardian channel on Youtube that seems to have live footage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLZRwvR0-mg

Donald Trump

recedite wrote: »

I just explained it. Its not my fault you don't understand it.
Ratification, Jurisdiction, these are big words.

I suggest you should research things in future, before you start arguing about them.

Why do you appear to think that the UK Parliament should decide what the EU can and can't ask for?


I mean, with all your research and what you think are your "big words", you seem to think that that is the case. I think that you should maybe focus on smaller words if the big words confuse you!



EU and TM agree a deal. Signed off on. TM goes back to England. They don't endorse it. Goes back to EU. EU says "eh, no. If we are doing a deal, we insist on that condition".


Your stance seems to be that the EU can't request a condition that the UK parliament doesn't like. I'd like for you to be in that chair across from me in a negotiation.

---

hypothetical negotiation to illustrate absurdness

---

recedite: "We'll build that house for you but we will have to charge you 200k"
Donald Trump: "ok, That's do-able."


2 months later

Donald trump: "Hey, Recedite. I checked with the family and they don't like having to pay 200k. We want you to come back and negotiate a new deal to build the house for free"
recedite: "oh ok. Well given that you didn't get it passed in your own house, I can't insist that the price is 200k. I guess seeing as you made the decision in your own house, I will have to agree to doing it for free"

ancapailldorcha

road_high wrote: »

How’s the people’s march going in London?

Quite well. Massive turnout and good weather. Got there a bit late but even now we're not moving.

road_high

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Quite well. Massive turnout and good weather. Got there a bit late but even now we're not moving.

Is there much discussion amongst people or what is the general feeling?

devnull

I've just seen one of the weakest interviews in living memory on the BBC.

John Redwood just given free reign to run what is pretty much a political broadcast alongside live footage of the march for about 10 minutes, pretty much uninterrupted not challenged at all to back up anything he was saying, with very little focus on the march itself.

However there seems to be an attempt to draw a comparison by Farage's march as well, which has not gone unnoticed.

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1109449984510959624

Meanwhile
https://twitter.com/peoplesvote_uk/status/1109440829981114374

Junkyard Tom

recedite wrote: »

1. Removal of British Army and RUC security installations already happened. Customs control is not the same thing.

When the inevitable civil disruption occurs there will be a need for a security presence. You know that, I know that, everyone knows that.

2. "Status of NI cannot be changed without consent of its people". Creating a new customs border in the Irish sea, separating off NI from Britain, would be a change to its status.

NI's status is already different to Britain's in many ways -- how would increased controls at the natural border known as the Irish Sea change NI's status exactly?

Headshot

Good old Farage spreading his lies on Sky news, what a jackass. It's pity he's allow to spread his vile rubbish unchallenged on Sky News.

What makes it worse there's idiots that support him, they in many ways are worse than Farage

An Ciarraioch

People's Vote claim one million in attendance - mind you, they stated 750,000 for the last march, and it was later estimated at around 200,000.

ancapailldorcha

road_high wrote: »

Is there much discussion amongst people or what is the general feeling?

Much the same as last time. People here are just as fervent in voicing their opposition to Brexit. Nothing has changed save for the levels of farce and incompetence in the government.

Akrasia

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

People's Vote claim one million in attendance - mind you, they stated 750,000 for the last march, and it was later estimated at around 200,000.

Estimated by whom?

Joe_ Public

How many are there “in spirit” though? This is surely the key question. I would say 100 million but that is conservative estimate. Wonder what Nige thinks.

ancapailldorcha

Akrasia wrote: »

Estimated by whom?

I'd be keen on finding this out. This is my second march. Place is completely jammed. My understanding was 700,000.

road_high

Headshot wrote: »

Good old Farage spreading his lies on Sky news, what a jackass. It's pity he's allow to spread his vile rubbish unchallenged on Sky News.

What makes it worse there's idiots that support him, they in many ways are worse than Farage

All 5 of them in a pub beer garden. Farage and his never ending rhetoric are unbearable but he knows how to tap into the lowest common denominator of British politics and is clearly relishing a continuation of the whole brexit farce as it gives him relevance he otherwise wouldn’t have

Harry Palmr

Euronews footage from earlier, about 90 mins of it!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fK4lHigNGSM

An Ciarraioch

Akrasia wrote: »

Estimated by whom?

Greater London Authority, apparently:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/05/peoples-vote-march-attended-third-number-organisers-claimed/

The Rape of Lucretia

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'd be keen on finding this out. This is my second march. Place is completely jammed. My understanding was 700,000.

Does it matter though ? Unless the number exceeds twenty million, it doesnt really indicate anything at all, does it ?

listermint

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Does it matter though ? Unless the number exceeds twenty million, it doesnt really indicate anything at all, does it ?

Ugh...

Where did you get that figure from and why.

The Rape of Lucretia

listermint wrote: »

Ugh...

Where did you get that figure from and why.

Final Say is just a deceitful spin by remainers to try to rerun the original referendum in the hope of reversing it.
18 million, or something such, voted to remain. So having single millions out asking for a rematch tells us nothing new. Only if the numbers exceeded by a clear few million, that remain vote, would there be a clear case for a second ref.

Capt'n Midnight

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Greater London Authority, apparently:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/05/peoples-vote-march-attended-third-number-organisers-claimed/

Different estimate based on photos and crowd density
https://fullfact.org/news/did-670000-march-peoples-vote-brexit/

The reality is that it’s really hard to accurately measure crowd sizes at non-ticketed events. That said, our crude estimate is that, based on available evidence, it looked like around 450,000 people were present at the start of the march.

...
Also, regardless of how many people were in attendance when the march started at 1.23pm, it’s plausible that more joined further along the route, or just at Parliament Square for the closing speeches.

charlie14

Akrasia wrote: »

Estimated by whom?

From what I have been told by someone who has been involved in calculating march numbers, apparently it is not that difficult to determine numbers.

If you know the square area covered by the marchers then there is a pretty accurate correlation.

devnull

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Final Say is just a deceitful spin by remainers to try to rerun the original referendum in the hope of reversing it.
18 million, or something such, voted to remain. So having single millions out asking for a rematch tells us nothing new. Only if the numbers exceeded by a clear few million, that remain vote, would there be a clear case for a second ref.

There's a massive flaw in that.

Voting takes place up and down the country all day and this march is only in London at a specific time.