Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

The Rape of Lucretia

devnull wrote: »

There's a massive flaw in that.

Voting takes place up and down the country all day and this march is only in London at a specific time.

Voting ?

ancapailldorcha

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Different estimate based on photos and crowd density
https://fullfact.org/news/did-670000-march-peoples-vote-brexit/

I'd a link from the Metropolitan Police as a source from the last march. 4G is spotty so I can't dig it up right now.

ArmaniJeanss

Already the most signed petition ever, and likely to end up double the next highest.
Looking like the second biggest protest march in uk history.

Whether they'll make any difference is one thing (probably won't) but to dismiss them as insignificant is particularly mealy-mouthed.

charlie14

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Final Say is just a deceitful spin by remainers to try to rerun the original referendum in the hope of reversing it.
18 million, or something such, voted to remain. So having single millions out asking for a rematch tells us nothing new. Only if the numbers exceeded by a clear few million, that remain vote, would there be a clear case for a second ref.

If you used the same analogy on the simultaneous march to leave numbers, then your point is null and void on the case for a second referendum

volchitsa

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Already the most signed petition ever, and likely to end up double the next highest.
Looking like the second biggest protest march in uk history.

Whether they'll make any difference is one thing (probably won't) but to dismiss them as insignificant is particularly mealy-mouthed.

I assume that only the "Stop the War" march, against the Iraq war, was bigger, which is significant, when we look at who was right there. When so much of the population feels so strongly that its government is wrong, they really need to be listened to.

Inquitus

It had to make some difference, open some eyes, galvanise some politicians, at the very least. It's clear now there is probably a majority in the voting public for remain at this juncture.

The Rape of Lucretia

charlie14 wrote: »

If you used the same analogy on the simultaneous march to leave numbers, then your point is null and void on the case for a second referendum

No. The same applies. Unless more march that voted one way, then they are only a subset of the original vote. So no new information is learned.

PokeHerKing

The simple truth is that 17 million or so Brits voted to remain, less than a quarter of that signing an online petition that is easily manipulated is not as big news as some people would like to believe.

Same as the march, its a fraction of the amount of people who already voted against Brexit! So what does it prove??

Anyway I'm merely playing devil's advocate here, I think Remain would win if they got another vote. I think the the win margin would need to be a good 10% to be able to rightly say, were gonna go with the second vote.

But the feverish way these current remain demonstrations are being celebrated when the figures do not tip the balance of the original vote is quite telling. Like the Brexiteers some remainers will happily throw democracy under the bus if it suits their side.

weemcd

Second referendum odds haven't changed significantly, that I can tell for quite a while now, which I'm slightly surprised by. Bookies do occasionally get it wrong, but it certainly doesn't look likely.

I'd be in favour of a second referendum, purely on the basis that there is likely to be an even larger turnout, and remain would be a likely outcome.

I fear this doesn't happen though.

Akrasia

Inquitus wrote: »

It had to make some difference, open some eyes, galvanise some politicians, at the very least. It's clear now there is probably a majority in the voting public for remain at this juncture.

At the very least it gives politicians the out when challenged by leave voters. They can point at the huge march and the biggest petition in history, and then point at Farages tiny pathetic march and say that they believe the will of the people has changed

Joe_ Public

Think it was Blair who said many months back that a second referendum only made sense if you could somehow guarantee a 60% remain vote. I don’t think you’d get that in remainers wildest dreams but maybe you’d get somewhere close if they learned from past mistakes and ran an effective campaign.

Strazdas

PokeHerKing wrote: »

The simple truth is that 17 million or so Brits voted to remain, less than a quarter of that signing an online petition that is easily manipulated is not as big news as some people would like to believe.

Same as the march, its a fraction of the amount of people who already voted against Brexit! So what does it prove??

Anyway I'm merely playing devil's advocate here, I think Remain would win if they got another vote. I think the the win margin would need to be a good 10% to be able to rightly say, were gonna go with the second vote.

But the feverish way these current remain demonstrations are being celebrated when the figures do not tip the balance of the original vote is quite telling. Like the Brexiteers some remainers will happily throw democracy under the bus if it suits their side.

Don't forget though that the Brexiteers and the right wing press are claiming that anyone opposed to Brexit is "undemocratic" : this despite the fact that Leave supporters are almost certainly a clear minority in Britain right now - this is a complete perversion of democracy

It's rather arrogant of them to think they are still in control of the narrative

Akrasia

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Think it was Blair who said many months back that a second referendum only made sense if you could somehow guarantee a 60% remain vote. I don’t think you’d get that in remainers wildest dreams but maybe you’d get somewhere close if they learned from past mistakes and ran an effective campaign.

Remains wildest dreams? The brexiteers know they'll almost certainly lose so they'd probably end up boycotting the vote so they can attempt to de-legitimise it

PokeHerKing

Strazdas wrote:

this despite the fact that Leave supporters are almost certainly a clear minority in Britain right now -

Whilst I'd probably agree with this statement, I certainly don't think it's clear or certain. Your assumption that it's is so clear cut could be construed as arrogance .

fly_agaric

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/border-to-be-discussed-between-ireland-and-eu-as-brexit-pressure-intensifies-1.3835698

"Asked about the issue on Friday, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said Ireland would seek to “uphold the Good Friday Agreement, keep the border with Northern Ireland open and still fulfil our obligations in European treaties to protect the single market and make sure Ireland is still fully a member of the single market and that the Border doesn’t become a backdoor to the single market”.

Mr Varadkar was speaking at the conclusion of the two-day summit.

Meanwhile, Tánaiste Simon Coveney, speaking at the Fine Gael conference in Wexford, said there would need to be regulatory alignment between Northern Ireland and the Republic to keep the Border open even if there was no Brexit deal."...

...we still advocate for the solution that we know works, which is the backstop


I do find this sort of self-contradictory stuff disturbing as we get so close to a potential UK withdrawal with no agreement in place.
If our leaders think rest of the EU (many of whom have extremely politically troublesome borders they are expected to enforce) is going to allow damage to the single market for very long to accommodate the NI problem child they are really away with the fairies as much as any of the Brexiteers.
For the same reasons they have backed Ireland up in its positions for last 2 years + told the UK they cannot "cherry-pick" aspects of being in the EU, they are not going to fudge this.

There is a need to face reality & not potentially sacrifice benefits of our own EU membership for the sake of NI's various unresolved "issues".
The actions of NIs own exceedingly stupid and ignorant politicians helped scupper any sort of orderly withdrawal of the UK from the EU which would have kept the border open. Ireland did it's best during the negotiations & the DUP spat on it (after also supporting Brexit). We don't owe them anything more on this issue IMO.

charlie14

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

No. The same applies. Unless more march that voted one way, then they are only a subset of the original vote. So no new information is learned.

Even if your premise is the ridiculous idea that more people should march than voted to justify another referendum, there are certainly many more marching to remain than there are to leave.
If the will of the majority now, as you seem to be implying is to leave, after three years, the fiasco this has turned out to be and the lies exposed of the leave campaign shown for what they were, what is the fear of leavers in holding another referendum ?
In your case the numbers partaking in the two marches perhaps ?

Joe_ Public

Akrasia wrote: »

Remains wildest dreams? The brexiteers know they'll almost certainly lose so they'd probably end up boycotting the vote so they can attempt to de-legitimise it

Who knows? But vote would still likely be close if it goes ahead and you’ll still have deep division after it. I like the idea of second referendum personally, like many many others, but I’m not blind to the risks that come attached with it either. Not sure it’s the automatic panacea that some believe it to be.

Calina

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

No. The same applies. Unless more march that voted one way, then they are only a subset of the original vote. So no new information is learned.

Why are you so terrified of a second vote?

Spook_ie

devnull wrote: »

I've just seen one of the weakest interviews in living memory on the BBC.

John Redwood just given free reign to run what is pretty much a political broadcast alongside live footage of the march for about 10 minutes, pretty much uninterrupted not challenged at all to back up anything he was saying, with very little focus on the march itself.

However there seems to be an attempt to draw a comparison by Farage's march as well, which has not gone unnoticed.

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1109449984510959624

Meanwhile
https://twitter.com/peoplesvote_uk/status/1109440829981114374

to be fair one is a march from Sunderland the other is a bussed/railed whatever in gathering of protesters, think Jarrow March that was only 200 or so, achieved very little but many people have heard of the Jarrow March

Spook_ie

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

When the inevitable civil disruption occurs there will be a need for a security presence. You know that, I know that, everyone knows that.



NI's status is already different to Britain's in many ways -- how would increased controls at the natural border known as the Irish Sea change NI's status exactly?

Wouldn't that depend on if people are profiting by smuggling etc.?
Would you be causing civil disruption if you were profiting from it, I wouldn't.

Beechwoodspark

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The will of the people of NI is to remain in the EU. How is London going going to exert this level of control over a part of the UK required to thwart their will. The usual stuff I suppose, helicopters, beatings, shooting people on the streets, etc

Don’t forget state collusion with loyalist murder squads

Strazdas

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Whilst I'd probably agree with this statement, I certainly don't think it's clear or certain. Your assumption that it's is so clear cut could be construed as arrogance .

Not a single opinion poll since around Spring 2017 has shown Leave with a lead. For them to be talking about "democracy" and "the will of the people" and using that as the main justification for everything they do is a bit rich.

This is why they are rather uncomfortable with the petition and doing everything to discredit it - it's ripping into their very justification for Brexit

Shelga

It’s unfair to compare March to Leave with the one happening in London today. The Leave one is a ridiculous 200 mile walk that requires people to give up 2-3 weeks of their lives and pay for the privilege. Today’s one is on a Saturday and is only for a few hours.

Also, I could see the Leave campaign successfully organising something similar if and when a second referendum is announced, because then they have something concrete to object to, just like today’s marchers have a clear goal.

Although the idea of Leavers successfully organising anything, or having a good idea what they want to achieve, is pretty far-fetched, based on current patterns.

Akrasia

Spook_ie wrote: »

to be fair one is a march from Sunderland the other is a bussed/railed whatever in gathering of protesters, think Jarrow March that was only 200 or so, achieved very little but many people have heard of the Jarrow March

Whats stopping them from organising a rally in London to support their aim of leaving the EU?

Especially when they are faced with either a long extension or a revoking of A50?

Shelga

I wonder if the EU are thinking about anything they would change about the article 50 process? As obviously this is the first time it’s been used.

Clearly it’s not in their interest to make the path to leaving much easier, but the current chaos suits no one. Perhaps add a clause that there has to be an agreement on strategy decided by the country’s parliament before proceeding? Then everyone knows where they stand and it doesn’t all come to a head in the last 2 weeks.

It would probably stop anyone else leaving too, because the moment you try to agree a strategy at home is when you realise you’ll never get a better deal than the one you have as a full EU member.

Infini

PokeHerKing wrote: »

The simple truth is that 17 million or so Brits voted to remain, less than a quarter of that signing an online petition that is easily manipulated is not as big news as some people would like to believe.

25million odd people didnt even vote in the first referendum and the leave side won by a SMALL margin of those who did. These hypocrytes have shouted will of the people to silence others who doubt this and only because the genral mood is shifting againt them. They're doing this without a plan and a care about the damage it will cause. Theyre reckless and stupid wasters who Tusk rightly described as having a special place in hell for pushing this without a plan and dont care about the damage it will cause others.

They're scared because they lucked out on a narrow victory and now enough people have caught on to risk and damage their little vainglorious project will cause.

Spook_ie

Akrasia wrote: »

Whats stopping them from organising a rally in London to support their aim of leaving the EU?

Especially when they are faced with either a long extension or a revoking of A50?

Nothing, but you are comparing a 200 mile march to a fairly static gathering, kind of comparing Lemons to Bananas, yes they are both fruits, yes they are both yellow but nothing much else.

Like wise they are both protests, they both involve people but there y'go.

Zubeneschamali

fly_agaric wrote: »

If our leaders think rest of the EU (many of whom have extremely politically troublesome borders they are expected to enforce) is going to allow damage to the single market for very long to accommodate the NI problem child they are really away with the fairies as much as any of the Brexiteers.

It's OK, No Deal Brexit can't last very long, so we just act shocked until the Brits are on their knees and come back for a deal - backstop will be top of the preconditions.

Zubeneschamali

Akrasia wrote: »

Whats stopping them from organising a rally in London to support their aim of leaving the EU?

I think the Organizing part is the problem.

Timberrrrrrrr

Infini wrote: »

25million odd people didnt even vote in the first referendum and the leave side won by a SMALL margin of those who did. These hypocrytes have shouted will of the people to silence others who doubt this and only because the genral mood is shifting againt them. They're doing this without a plan and a care about the damage it will cause. Theyre reckless and stupid wasters who Tusk rightly described as having a special place in hell for pushing this without a plan and dont care about the damage it will cause others.

They're scared because they lucked out on a narrow victory and now enough people have caught on to risk and damage their little vainglorious project will cause.

I'm wondering how many people who keep quoting this would be happy if the god botherers started calling for a fresh referendum on divorce in Ireland, it was passed by a small margin after all.

The Irish government has agreed to hold a referendum to ease the country's restrictions on divorce. ... Divorce was approved in the Republic of Ireland in 1995 by 50.28% to 49.72%.