Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

An Ciarraioch

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

I'm wondering how many people who keep quoting this would be happy if the god botherers started calling for a fresh referendum on divorce in Ireland, it was passed by a small margin after all.

At least in that instance, or the Welsh devolution referendum, it was clear what the enactment of the referendum would entail - beyond leaving the political institutions of the EU, there was no agreement on the economic implications of Brexit.

devnull

Many of the high profile leavers were saying that remain only truly wins if they win by a big margin and get around 60% of the vote or more, otherwise another vote wouldn't be far away.

Farage himself said that if it was 52:48 in favour of remain then it wasn't finished, but he expects it to be finished now because his side won, so he's a complete hypocrite and is currently being excellently trolled by Led by Donkeys.

KildareP

fly_agaric wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/border-to-be-discussed-between-ireland-and-eu-as-brexit-pressure-intensifies-1.3835698

"Asked about the issue on Friday, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said Ireland would seek to “uphold the Good Friday Agreement, keep the border with Northern Ireland open and still fulfil our obligations in European treaties to protect the single market and make sure Ireland is still fully a member of the single market and that the Border doesn’t become a backdoor to the single market”.

Mr Varadkar was speaking at the conclusion of the two-day summit.

Meanwhile, Tiste Simon Coveney, speaking at the Fine Gael conference in Wexford, said there would need to be regulatory alignment between Northern Ireland and the Republic to keep the Border open even if there was no Brexit deal."...

...we still advocate for the solution that we know works, which is the backstop


I do find this sort of self-contradictory stuff disturbing as we get so close to a potential UK withdrawal with no agreement in place.
If our leaders think rest of the EU (many of whom have extremely politically troublesome borders they are expected to enforce) is going to allow damage to the single market for very long to accommodate the NI problem child they are really away with the fairies as much as any of the Brexiteers.
For the same reasons they have backed Ireland up in its positions for last 2 years + told the UK they cannot "cherry-pick" aspects of being in the EU, they are not going to fudge this.

There is a need to face reality & not potentially sacrifice benefits of our own EU membership for the sake of NI's various unresolved "issues".
The actions of NIs own exceedingly stupid and ignorant politicians helped scupper any sort of orderly withdrawal of the UK from the EU which would have kept the border open. Ireland did it's best during the negotiations & the DUP spat on it (after also supporting Brexit). We don't owe them anything more on this issue IMO.

I don't believe the government are in anyway unprepared for this - for many months they stated they were not making any preparations whatsoever for a No Deal because they didn't believe it were necessary. It is very much apparent now that they were in fact preparing in detail for No Deal and a hard border ever since the Brexit result was announced.

Problem is they can't openly state that they are preparing or accepting that a No Deal is a very high possibility because the UK will be all over it accusing the Irish Government - and by extension, the EU - of all sorts, not acting in good faith, sabotaging negotiations, undermining trust, etc.

Hence the what appear to be contradictory-to-reality statements coming from Leinster House. There's what's happening in the background and there's what's being fed to the frontline for negotiation purposes.

Joe_ Public

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

At least in that instance, or the Welsh devolution referendum, it was clear what the enactment of the referendum would entail - beyond leaving the political institutions of the EU, there was no agreement on the economic implications of Brexit.

This is true and i think it suggests that for a second referendum to stand any chance of settling divisions, there has to be clarity around the framework. You have to present some option of brexit instead of just leave where you are just potentially bringing things back to square one.

fly_agaric

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It's OK, No Deal Brexit can't last very long, so we just act shocked until the Brits are on their knees and come back for a deal - backstop will be top of the preconditions.

Would much rather have seen the current agreement voted through smoothly than test this theory!
This idea also rests on rationality, organisation + acting in your best interests but that seems to be gone out the window (or on hold anyway) in the UK for the moment at least.

backspin.

George Galloway quoting in twitter a COMRES poll that has leave on 50% and remain on 35%.

Laois_Man

Joe_ Public wrote: »

This is true and i think it suggests that for a second referendum to stand any chance of settling divisions, there has to be clarity around the framework. You have to present some option of brexit instead of just leave where you are just potentially bringing things back to square one.

Anyone who votes "Leave" in a second ref should have to specify what sort of leave they want with at least 2 choices - including (dangerously) a no-deal Exit.

But I find it so ironic when I hear Leavers protest about people insulting their intelligence when claiming that nobody who voted 'Leave' knew what they were voting for.....then complain such a ballot paper would be too complicated!

An Ciarraioch

backspin. wrote: »

George Galloway quoting in twitter a COMRES poll that has leave on 50% and remain on 35%.

Wasn't a straight Leave/Remain poll, however:

http://twitter.com/jammers1978/status/1109510186539143178

listermint

backspin. wrote: »

George Galloway quoting in twitter a COMRES poll that has leave on 50% and remain on 35%.

George Galloway is an idiot though. So id like to see the source

fly_agaric

KildareP wrote: »

I don't believe the government are in anyway unprepared for this - for many months they stated they were not making any preparations whatsoever for a No Deal because they didn't believe it were necessary. It is very much apparent now that they were in fact preparing in detail for No Deal and a hard border ever since the Brexit result was announced.

Problem is they can't openly state that they are preparing or accepting that a No Deal is a very high possibility because the UK will be all over it accusing the Irish Government - and by extension, the EU - of all sorts, not acting in good faith, sabotaging negotiations, undermining trust, etc.

Hence the what appear to be contradictory-to-reality statements coming from Leinster House. There's what's happening in the background and there's what's being fed to the frontline for negotiation purposes.

I was somewhat persuaded by that argument before, but the negotiations are well over & done now. I am sceptical about extent of preparation (as in tangible stuff that is hard to do and really costs a lot of money, new infrastructure, new staff, upgraded IT systems) for a "no deal" scenario given the Irish govt. didn't want to believe it was actually possible. I suppose I can't blame them for that too much.

It is hard to know (as you said they have not wanted to talk about any preparations for "no deal" at all for political reasons - stock answer to these questions for a long while now is the agreement is negotiated, UK should just get on with it & ratify it).

The Rape of Lucretia

Akrasia wrote: »

Whats stopping them from organising a rally in London to support their aim of leaving the EU?

The lack of any need to do so. The referendum result us already the one they want.

An Ciarraioch

listermint wrote: »

George Galloway is an idiot though. So id like to see the source

PDF with full tabs in link below:

https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/daily-express-brexit-poll-march-2019/

Capt'n Midnight

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Think it was Blair who said many months back that a second referendum only made sense if you could somehow guarantee a 60% remain vote. I don’t think you’d get that in remainers wildest dreams but maybe you’d get somewhere close if they learned from past mistakes and ran an effective campaign.

I'd be pretty sure Remain would win with that sort of margin under some conditions.

First a exact definition of the ONE alternative and exactly what it entails.

- May's deal is only a medium term transitional arrangement , there is no guarantee that the EU will continue to give the UK the same deal afterwards.

- Hard Brexit , make it clear that the concessions given by the EU are only there to facilitate the EU and can be removed at any time.

Other deals are just NOT on offer. EEA / Norway mean Schengen which is a complete non-starter in the UK.

Any PLUS deal means renegotiation and getting the EU to give concessions to Norway or Canada. Fantasy unless the UK are willing to give massive concessions.


The other condition is a little harder, holding the liars accountable so it's a fair campaign.

Zubeneschamali

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

I'm wondering how many people who keep quoting this would be happy if the god botherers started calling for a fresh referendum on divorce in Ireland, it was passed by a small margin after all.

Yes, I would be delighted to stamp them into the dirt 90-10 this time.

Zubeneschamali

fly_agaric wrote: »

It is hard to know (as you said they have not wanted to talk about any preparations for "no deal" at all for political reasons - stock answer to these questions for a long while now is the agreement is negotiated, UK should just get on with it & ratify it).

Have a read of this from December in which Coveney and Varadkar simultaneously state that:


a) plans are in hand for no deal border and


b) there are no such plans


The Government has refused to reveal if it has any plans for a hard border amid growing fears that the country is sleepwalking into a no-deal Brexit crisis.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Tánaiste Simon Coveney denied the existence of any hard-border plan, despite announcing “accelerated” no-deal contingency measures to protect Ireland.
In a memo outlined at Cabinet yesterday, Mr Varadkar and Mr Coveney said due to the increasing problems in Britain, Ireland must “ramp up” its worst-case Brexit plans.

Under the increased protections, the Government has:
• Given all department secretaries generals amended draft laws to cope with a no-deal Brexit;
• Set aside Dáil and Seanad time in January to make emergency legal changes before the March 29 Brexit date;
• Announced an “acceleration” of recruitment of customs officials, with hundreds more people expected to join the already 200 new recruits in the sector;
• Confirmed the existence of unpublished emergency plans to ensure Irish and European planes will still be able to fly over Britain once the UK is removed from the open skies EU policy;
• Put in place greater protections for businesses and farmers at most risk from a no-deal Brexit.

A hard border is the worst case scenario — meaning it is the key reason for any contingency planning.
However, both Mr Varadkar and Mr Coveney denied they have any plans in place for the return of a hard border.

An Ciarraioch

In semi Brexit-related news:

http://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1109492685872816133

Zubeneschamali

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

I'd be pretty sure Remain would win with that sort of margin under some conditions.

First a exact definition of the ONE alternative and exactly what it entails.

- May's deal is only a medium term transitional arrangement , there is no guarantee that the EU will continue to give the UK the same deal afterwards.

- Hard Brexit , make it clear that the concessions given by the EU are only there to facilitate the EU and can be removed at any time.

Other deals are just NOT on offer. EEA / Norway mean Schengen which is a complete non-starter in the UK.

Any PLUS deal means renegotiation and getting the EU to give concessions to Norway or Canada. Fantasy unless the UK are willing to give massive concessions.


The other condition is a little harder, holding the liars accountable so it's a fair campaign.

This is all completely untrue.

eire4

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

In semi Brexit-related news:

http://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1109492685872816133

They actually applauded that wow .That is bad even for Fine Gael. Thankfully no chance of that happening.

Zubeneschamali

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

In semi Brexit-related news:

http://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1109492685872816133

Very polite of them.

Laois_Man

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

The lack of any need to do so. The referendum result us already the one they want.

Why a march from Sunderland then?

Imreoir2

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

I'm wondering how many people who keep quoting this would be happy if the god botherers started calling for a fresh referendum on divorce in Ireland, it was passed by a small margin after all.

If we get tens of thousands of people marching in Dublin on the issue, and opinion polls indicating 45-60% in favour of changing the decision, then sure, lets put it to the vote.

PokeHerKing

Strazdas wrote:

Not a single opinion poll since around Spring 2017 has shown Leave with a lead. For them to be talking about "democracy" and "the will of the people" and using that as the main justification for everything they do is a bit rich.

I could be wrong but I don't think there was any opinion polls that had leave with a lead before the vote?

Try to live in the centre on things, extremests either side of divides are as bad as each other.

Hurrache

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

In semi Brexit-related news:

http://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1109492685872816133

The applause was explained as a warm welcome to a DUP member addressing a FG meeting.

I don't for one moment believe the implication that they're applauding the suggestion and idea of rejoining the commonwealth.

eire4

Hurrache wrote: »

The applause was explained as a warm welcome to a DUP member addressing a FG meeting.

I don't for one moment believe the implication that they're applauding the suggestion and idea of rejoining the commonwealth.

I sure hope your right because that would be appalling considering what a bigoted party Donaldson is a member of and I am not even talking about their views on Ireland.

FrancieBrady

Hurrache wrote: »

The applause was explained as a warm welcome to a DUP member addressing a FG meeting.

I don't for one moment believe the implication that they're applauding the suggestion and idea of rejoining the commonwealth.

There are plenty in Fine Gael who would want to (John Bruton types)

fash

KildareP wrote: »

Problem is they can't openly state that they are preparing or accepting that a No Deal is a very high possibility because the UK will be all over it accusing the Irish Government - and by extension, the EU - of all sorts, not acting in good faith, sabotaging negotiations, undermining trust, etc.

Hence the what appear to be contradictory-to-reality statements coming from Leinster House. There's what's happening in the background and there's what's being fed to the frontline for negotiation purposes.

One thing I'm not sure about is why the Irish government didn't say:
"We have no plans to erect a hard border: one will not be required because we fully expect that even in a no deal situation, the UK will devise a way to ensure one is not needed. We have every confidence in our British colleagues"
It leads everything back to the UK and its actions and as a response doesn't have contradictions or permit detailed interrogation.

Timberrrrrrrr

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, I would be delighted to stamp them into the dirt 90-10 this time.

I agree that yes these days it would be a hammering hence there won't be one, but it was close! If they had called for one a year or 3 later saying it was too close would people have agreed to a 2nd?

Fwiw i live in the UK and hope this mess gets sorted sensibly (no leave, soft leave if they absolutely decide they are leaving )

The Rape of Lucretia

Calina wrote: »

Why are you so terrified of a second vote?

That line is a bit like the playground taunt of coward, to someone who doesnt want to fight.
Of course Leave could lose. So much better to hold onto your win than say , what tge hell, lets compete again. The problem is the Remainers marching and petitiining because they cant accept tge first result. This is what has poisoned tge leave negotiations and implementation of it - people still arguing like its 3 years ago. Both 'the people' and the commons.

sink

eire4 wrote: »

They actually applauded that wow .That is bad even for Fine Gael. Thankfully no chance of that happening.

I don't see any rational reason to be anti-commonwealth. It's a good opportunity for Ireland to enhance relations with many African and South Asian nations. We don't have strong economic ties with those regions, so there is a lot of room for expansion. There is absolutely no harm in it.

Capt'n Midnight

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

This is all completely untrue.

Please elaborate.