Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo

devnull wrote: »

Her going could result in a member of the ERG becoming leader of the Tory party and they are even more likely to go for No Deal, so as much as I despise May and the way that she has handled Brexit, if we want to avoid the UK having a chaotic no deal crash out in a few weeks time, we might be better off with her staying than a member of the ERG taking over.

How is that possible? These are max 80 MPs. They should never have been given the oxygen they have now. Just sideline them and divide and rule. They're a rump without a semblance of an idea between them. They've been given the chance and failed miserably and continuously to come up with alternative plans or run away from responsibility. They should have zero credibility at this stage. There are far more sensible MPs in the party than that bunch.

Inquitus

devnull wrote: »

Her going could result in a member of the ERG becoming leader of the Tory party and they are even more likely to go for No Deal, so as much as I despise May and the way that she has handled Brexit, if we want to avoid the UK having a chaotic no deal crash out in a few weeks time, we might be better off with her staying than a member of the ERG taking over.

They are talking about installing an interim leader until the Autumn when they host the new leadership elections. That interim leader could in that timeframe shape the future relationship with the EU and enshrine it in law, be it SM and CU or whatever. This would undoubtedly be a softer Brexit.

An Ciarraioch

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Not sure if you are referring to an interim PM/Leader of the Tories or talking about the future.

But surely the remainers and non ERG in Government would be in a position to block any ERG moron from ascending to the throne. Surely?

I am not sure, and I am not saying you are wrong, I just cannot see ERG getting anywhere near the top job now.

I think though, that if a leadership contest has two candidates, it's thrown open to the Tory membership, hence why Lidington would only be crowned as a consensual stand-in.

devnull

prawnsambo wrote: »

How is that possible? These are max 80 MPs. They should never have been given the oxygen they have now. Just sideline them and divide and rule. They're a rump without a semblance of an idea between them. They've been given the chance and failed miserably and continuously to come up with alternative plans or run away from responsibility. They should have zero credibility at this stage. There are far more sensible MPs in the party than that bunch.

If there's two candidates there is going to be a leaver and a remainer most likely and honestly whilst the ERG themselves don't have enough members to win such a vote, I'd argue with an election on a horizon, saying that the leave candidate will not garner as many votes as the remainer and taking that for granted would be very foolish.

Also the leader is crowned based on Tory membership, which is going to be favouring the leaver. Sure, it's a gamble that could pay off for the remainers, but it could also backfire on them spectacularly if they get a hard brexiteer in place of May.

FrancieBrady

prawnsambo wrote: »

What she says doesn't matter any more. She's the problem. She's so wedded to her deal that she'll contemplate a hard brexit if it doesn't go through. And even if that's just a ploy, we're well past the time for such shenanigans. It's bizarre. Remember she couldn't come up with any kind of plan B when asked by the EU27.

Just chewing the fat here. I agree with what you say, but we aren't the Tory party.

I can't see how it would be sensible for a remain Tory to get rid of May and replace her with an outright Brexiteer is the point I am making. It's a given that there is no sense emanating from the party mind you.

Laois_Man

I don't get it. Changing PM doesn't change much in the short term

The WA would still be very unlikely to pass

It is still very doubtful that the HoC would vote for a second referendum

They aren't going to vote for a General Election either because Turkey's don't vote for Christmas. The new PM would have to use his discretionary ability to call one - and they won't appoint one who might do that

The Government will still be beholding to the DUP

The HoC would still be split about 4 different ways giving nothing a majority

Kermit.de.frog

Nicky Morgan touted as replacement to Theresa May according to the Sunday Telegraph.


She has been in favor of the backstop so probably wouldn't be the worst choice from our point of view.

I think Liddington will take over from May next week though as a caretaker - that's what the tea leaves are saying.

Inquitus

Laois_Man wrote: »

I don't get it. Changing PM doesn't change much in the short term

The WA would still be very unlikely to pass

It is still very doubtful that the HoC would vote for a second referendum

They aren't going to vote for a General Election either because Turkey's don't vote for Christmas. The new PM would have to use his discretionary ability to call one - and they won't appoint one who might do that

The Government will still be beholding to the DUP

The HoC would still be split about 4 different ways giving nothing a majority

Lidington could reach out across the aisle, he has had talks with Starmer from Labour and others this past week. Cross party consensus is the only way forward at this point, and he might well be the man to deliver it.

Laois_Man

Inquitus wrote: »

Lidington could reach out across the aisle, he has had talks with Starmer from Labour and others this past week. Cross party consensus is the only way forward at this point, and he might well be the man to deliver it.

Firstly, they need to start with finding inner party consensus before they worry about cross-party consensus

Secondly, I can't accept there's very much chance that the Labour party leadership are going to give the Tory's a darn thing!

Inquitus

Laois_Man wrote: »

Firstly, they need to start with finding inner party consensus before they worry about cross-party consensus

Secondly, I can't accept there's very much chance of the Labour party leadership are going to give the Tory's a darn thing!

They can't find inner party consensus, that's simply not going to happen, that's the reason why we are where we are, the only way forwards is some sort of cross party consensus. With the deadline the EU has imposed, cross party consensus is the only way forwards, whether led by Lidington, or if the Commons takes control of the process itself, the only way this is going to be resolved is with a resolution that appeals to chunks of all the major parties.

Irish Praetorian

Is there not a problem of not seeing the forest for the trees here? No-Deal Brexit, notwithstanding how insane and suicidal it may appear to us, commands about 35% of the voters, perhaps even 40%. This trend is even more pronounced within the Tory party, where remaining commands just 15% in a three way voice and still only 25% when the choice is just no-deal or remain. I'm not sure there is much scope for any future Tory leader to do anything but profess some kind of Brexit belief, specifically the kind of no-deal Brexit that the ERG and friends have been touting for so long. Now when this comes to the next election, it will become even more difficult for Tory MPs to avoid following suit or risk alienating so much of their own base it's not even credible.

Now this might not be so much of a problem, that is the Tories becoming the party of Brexit, if Labour might get its act together (as its in a similar position with its membership albeit in the other direction) and become a party of remain, but instead we appear to be stuck with this chaotic muddle where every MP is doing something different whilst shouting how much they want to deliver Brexit and follow the will of the people. What a mess.

Laois_Man

Inquitus wrote: »

They can't find inner party consensus, that's simply not going to happen, that's the reason why we are where we are, the only way forwards is some sort of cross party consensus. With the deadline the EU has imposed, cross party consensus is the only way forwards, whether led by Lidington, or if the Commons takes control of the process itself, the only way this is going to be resolved is with a resolution that appeals to chunks of all the major parties.

I just cant see onside Tory's + enough Labour MPs disobeying the whip + a handful of independents all together reaching parliamentary majority on anything.

I cant see Lidington, Gove or anyone else in the Conservatives taking that problem on either. That is why May won the party no confidence vote in December - it wasn't even close - she won by 83. Nobody else wanted these problems. If many of them were thinking it's possible now to fix it in the way you describe, they would have thought it possible then, and she'd have been gone! May didn't just begin being a really poor leader this week!

Call me a pessimist but Labour are simply not going to want to rescue them. Maybe a handful of dissenters - but nowhere near enough. Conversely, there still won't be enough Tory's willing to support Labour's motion of a second referendum - even Corbyn doesn't really support that!

Inquitus

Laois_Man wrote: »

I just cant see onside Tory's + enough Labour MPs disobeying the whip + a handful of independents all together reaching parliamentary majority on anything.

I cant see Lidington, Gove or anyone else in the Conservatives taking that problem on either. That is why May won the party no confidence vote in December - it wasn't even close - she won by 83. Nobody else wanted these problems. If many of them were thinking it's possible now to fix it in the way you describe, they would have thought it possible then, and she'd have been gone! May didn't just begin being a really poor leader this week!

Call me a pessimist but Labour are simply not going to want to rescue them. Maybe a handful of dissenters - but nowhere near enough. Conversely, there still won't be enough Tory's willing to support Labour's motion of a second referendum - even Corbyn doesn't really support that!

Aye but minds are focused now, it's either crash out chaotic no deal, or come up with something. There is no runway left for anything else. It's time to put country ahead of party or deal with the catastrophic impacts of chaotic no deal.

Edit: Maybe I am being too optimistic, but we do know that there is a big majority of MP's against no deal, and keen on a softer Brexit than the Withdrawal Agreement's intent, I am just hopeful they can get their act together and find something to coalesce around.

Mr.Nice Guy

The sad thing if May does get tossed aside and the UK ends up with a soft Brexit is that the DUP will present this to their base as a big win thanks to their role in Westminster. They'll make May the scapegoat for all of the problems of the last few years and say that it was through their influence they managed to steer the UK away from having any sort of regulatory divergence. And their base will lap it up.

Spanish Eyes

Inquitus wrote: »

Aye but minds are focused now, it's either crash out chaotic no deal, or come up with something. There is no runway left for anything else. It's time to put country ahead of party or deal with the catastrophic impacts of chaotic no deal.

We live in hope that sense prevails. That is all we have left now.

The party before country stance of TM IMV led her to this pass. Time to sort it out for sure.

But at the last minute! Bizarre really, but maybe it took the EU to do it last week. Concentrated the minds maybe, although I am sure EU had no intention of dictating anything to anyone, just being sensible and saying, come on, enough is enough, make a decision here folks or else.

Good on them.

Spanish Eyes

Newton Emerson
‏@NewtonEmerson

David Lidington fact: he's represented the British government at all meetings of both east-west GFA institutions since Theresa May became PM, because she couldn't be bothered going - even to meetings held in London.

I'm only quoting second hand from Twitter friend who keeps sending me these things!

Joe_ Public

One of the cabinet ministers quoted in the S.Times is saying “a growing number” will vote for the deal if pm announces her departure, presumably meaning WA. That is certainly an interesting twist, though whether they’d still get the numbers is debatable.

Panrich

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Newton Emerson
‏@NewtonEmerson

David Lidington fact: he's represented the British government at all meetings of both east-west GFA institutions since Theresa May became PM, because she couldn't be bothered going - even to meetings held in London.

I'm only quoting second hand from Twitter friend who keeps sending me these things!

May is an odious creature who looks like being ousted for the reason that she created division within the country and parliament with her ridiculous red lines before any negotiations even began. There was no way back to a practical exit from there.

Good riddance.

BonnieSituation

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Newton Emerson
‏@NewtonEmerson

David Lidington fact: he's represented the British government at all meetings of both east-west GFA institutions since Theresa May became PM, because she couldn't be bothered going - even to meetings held in London.

I'm only quoting second hand from Twitter friend who keeps sending me these things!

Yup.

That's been out in the open a while.

Odious is the perfect word for May.

Calina

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

The singling out of May is a complete delusion by the cabinet, the Troy party, the Commons, and the people of the UK. They are the ones who have completely left the reservation (can we say that these days, or is it offensive to Native Americans?). They have failed her, and ditching her brings them no closer to a solution.
The man with the power to bring this matter to a sensible close is Mr Jeremy Corbyn. He should show leadership, commend the PM's deal, and encourage but not whip the labour MPs to support it in a 3rd MV. State so publicly and campaign for its support from others with time for them to consider and come on board.
WA approved. Disaster averted. Democracy and the Commons comes to its senses before its too late.
Come on Jeremy if you are reading this thread - be a man and do the right thing for your country.

Jeremy Corbyn has shown no leadership to date as far as Brexit is concerned and I don't know why you think he would either start or in fact, have the power to do anything. The Labour Party is very divided too.

NIMAN

Not sure if this clip has been linked, but that was some amount of people on the London march yesterday. They reckon up to 1 million.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-47680979/brexit-people-s-vote-march-to-parliament-square-sped-up

Enzokk

Inquitus wrote: »

They are talking about installing an interim leader until the Autumn when they host the new leadership elections. That interim leader could in that timeframe shape the future relationship with the EU and enshrine it in law, be it SM and CU or whatever. This would undoubtedly be a softer Brexit.

The problem is that an interim leader doesn't change the numbers in parliament. They will still need to get Labour support to get the deal through and getting Labour support will mean you alienate the ERG.

I could see Gove taking over, getting a deal over the line with Labour support and then turning around and ripping up the deal as soon as he can though.

Chequers deal could be undone after Britain leaves EU, claims Gove

I am not happy that May is leader of the Conservatives as her shortcomings are causing this impasse, but can you imagine having Gove or Johnson as leaders? Gove who has admitted that any deal can be changed after Brexit has happened and all they need to do is get it over the line, or Johnson who has been disparaging the border problem and has been stating it is no problem all along.

lawred2

NIMAN wrote: »

Not sure if this clip has been linked, but that was some amount of people on the London march yesterday. They reckon up to 1 million.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-47680979/brexit-people-s-vote-march-to-parliament-square-sped-up

That's a lot of people alright

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

The problem is that an interim leader doesn't change the numbers in parliament. They will still need to get Labour support to get the deal through and getting Labour support will mean you alienate the ERG.

I could see Gove taking over, getting a deal over the line with Labour support and then turning around and ripping up the deal as soon as he can though.

Chequers deal could be undone after Britain leaves EU, claims Gove

I am not happy that May is leader of the Conservatives as her shortcomings are causing this impasse, but can you imagine having Gove or Johnson as leaders? Gove who has admitted that any deal can be changed after Brexit has happened and all they need to do is get it over the line, or Johnson who has been disparaging the border problem and has been stating it is no problem all along.

Quite right. The problem with May going was always inevitably going to be the lack of palatable alternatives in her wake. Gove the silky-tongued backstabber or Boris the bluster-swilling buffoon. Some Hobson’s choice that. Saw Nicky Morgan’s name mentioned a few pages back, but anyone who even looked twice at the malthouse nonsense is barely fit for parliament, let alone holding the highest office in the land imo. I know he’s saying he doesn’t want it permanently but if he was to do a good job next few weeks or however long it is as interim, earn the respect of both sides, i wonder could Lidington emerge as a viable contender long term. Not the worst outcome by any means i think if it was a runner.

prawnsambo

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Quite right. The problem with May going was always inevitably going to be the lack of palatable alternatives in her wake. Gove the silky-tongued backstabber or Boris the bluster-swilling buffoon. Some Hobson’s choice that. Saw Nicky Morgan’s name mentioned a few pages back, but anyone who even looked twice at the malthouse nonsense is barely fit for parliament, let alone holding the highest office in the land imo. I know he’s saying he doesn’t want it permanently but if he was to do a good job next few weeks or however long it is as interim, earn the respect of both sides, i wonder could Lidington emerge as a viable contender long term. Not the worst outcome by any means i think if it was a runner.

Gove might have a chance, but Johnson has none. The bookies might think so based on his perceived popularity outside Westminster, but inside he's a busted flush. He's run away too many times for anyone to seriously consider him as leader. He would never ommand a consensus for caretaker leader.

bilston

So the BBC reckon that if May goes senior Tories will back her deal.

I don't understand that. You either think the deal is good or you don't. Changing PM isn't going to change the deal, so why should that impact on whether you vote for it or not. If this is the case it is another example of party before country. Shameful

Enzokk

bilston wrote: »

So the BBC reckon that if May goes senior Tories will back her deal.

I don't understand that. You either think the deal is good or you don't. Changing PM isn't going to change the deal, so why should that impact on whether you vote for it or not. If this is the case it is another example of party before country. Shameful

As you say it is about the party, but they are probably thinking that if she goes then someone new will negotiate the trade deal with the EU. The problem still persists on what trade deal is negotiated, is it a soft one where they mirror the EU regulations and will thus keep the borders open or will they go after the US trade deal, which means borders and the NI problem persisting.

We will be going in circles for the next few years and even if Labour takes over, unless you either go for EEA, or basically BRINO or you remain nothing will change.

prawnsambo

bilston wrote: »

So the BBC reckon that if May goes senior Tories will back her deal.

I don't understand that. You either think the deal is good or you don't. Changing PM isn't going to change the deal, so why should that impact on whether you vote for it or not. If this is the case it is another example of party before country. Shameful

The BBC are no longer the bastion of accurate reportage they once were. They may be right, but I would look at anything they say now with a large pinch of salt. If Tories backed her deal after voting against it while she was PM, then they'd have no credibility left. Not that they have much now, but this would be putting "I've no credibility" signs on their backs and walking around College Green.

McGiver

Davis talking his delusional nonsense in May 2016. Listening to this is actually more a psychoanalytic (or psychiatric if you wish ) exercise rather than a political one.

https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1108155476011900928?s=19

Is this some kind of a delusion? Illusion of grandeur? Or just plain stupidity?

What is interesting is that very likely this totally nonsensical notion of "Merkel runs the EU" is just a projection of their own (English political class') thinking - mostly of Tories but of Labour as well. This is exactly how they approach their own "Union" and how they approached the Empire and how they approach the EU. This is all a result of their failed political system, failed education, failed empire and failed constitution and I'm afraid it will be very difficult to fix. But at least it would have helped not to put a totally incompetent person such as Davis to a position of Brexit minister.:p

lawred2

Still playing personality politics even at this stage. Pathetic shower.