Are electricity costs due to shoot up in about 10 years time?

Ubbquittious

There is a big move underway to convert everyone to electric cars, air to water heatpumps and solar panels. While I'm not overly worried that it will cause a catastrophic failure of the grid a good bit of investment will be needed to cater for the new demand particularly if it has to be renewable and sustainable and all that good stuff.


Even if they were to bite the bullet and decide to build a nuclear plant today it probably won't be generating in 10 years. Realistically we will be stuck with some more wind power and the existing power plants and the interconnector to France. This means not meeting emissions targets and paying the price of not meeting them. No decent capital investment in the face of increasing demand means the government begging pretty please from private companies to inject some expensive power into the grid. Maybe diesel powered peaking plants (running on pretend-biofuel of course) like in the UK will come into fashion again.



Now suppose the government succeed in converting a large % of houses to the electric car + heatpump + solar panels trifecta. The first two are massive heavy AC loads and grid-tie solar is also dependent on having the grid connection there so all these people are massively exposed to the electricity price and most will be only able to generate 30% of their own electricity at the most. The remainder will have to come from Energia and friends



All these early adopters currently spend at least a few 1000 a year on fuel for the car and heating and because we live in a planned economy it's extremely unlikely they'll be allowed to shove the full amount to spend on fine dining and trips to Barbados.


The government has been hard at work to lengthen the electricity market gravy train by allowing in the likes of Panda and SSE in to resell the same product the ESB used to. Perhaps they'll allow even more in - each of these companies needs their own compliment of office staff that "we the consumer" have to pay for. There is no competition, none of these companies ever had a problem with citing "wholesale electricity price increase" as justification for pushing up the price.



There is the PSO levy as well which the government can easily add a digit or two onto with little consequence when the alternatives to electricity have been taken away in the name of reducing the carbon footprint.

893bet

No.

They will slowly Increase same as it always had.

Ten of Swords

Ubbquittious wrote: »

Even if they were to bite the bullet and decide to build a nuclear plant today it probably won't be generating in 10 years.

Moneypoint is due to be retired in the 2020's, a few years ago there was talk of replacing it with a nuclear reactor.

http://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/others/emerging-nuclear-energy-countries.aspx

Ireland's main base-load power is from the 915 MWe Moneypoint coal-fired power station in county Clare commissioned in 1987 and which was upgraded in 2010. It is operated by ESB – Electricity Supply Board of Ireland – and is due to be shut down in 2025.

In May 2014 a green paper suggested that the 915 MWe Moneypoint coal-fired power station might be replaced there by a nuclear reactor, especially given that the 440 kV transmission infrastructure is in place.

I'm not sure there is any concrete plan for that power plant's succession so when it is shut down prices will rise anyway.

Ubbquittious

Ten of Swords wrote: »

Moneypoint is due to be retired in the 2020's, a few years ago there was talk of replacing it with a nuclear reactor.

http://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/others/emerging-nuclear-energy-countries.aspx



I'm not sure there is any concrete plan for that power plant's succession so when it is shut down prices will rise anyway.

It would be some feat if they could pull that off in a reasonable time and without paying way over the odds. Be great to see it happen but not holding my breath

DrPhilG

There have already been rumours of trying to bill EV drivers more for the power to charge their cars, through smart metering.

Overheal

As far as renewables, Solar seems like a loss in Ireland. Geothermal maybe. Tidal perhaps.

cnocbui

Electricity prices will have to rise because 10% of government revenues come from motoring taxes. Some EV dreamers think the government will just increase vat to 30%, or something similar, but I doubt it. The government loves using scatter taxes to disguise the true tax burden.

aaronjumper

Not a grounded post.

zapitastas

Ubbquittious wrote: »

It would be some feat if they could pull that off in a reasonable time and without paying way over the odds. Be great to see it happen but not holding my breath

As long as they don't use the same building firm that was involved with the national aquatic centre

Ubbquittious

Overheal wrote: »

As far as renewables, Solar seems like a loss in Ireland. Geothermal maybe. Tidal perhaps.

I'd say we are already at grid parity if you don't factor in the overpriced installation costs

Junkyard Tom

In the future each home will have its own little nuclear reactor, where the immersion heater used to be, and we won't have to worry about turning it off.

cnocbui

Ubbquittious wrote: »

I'd say we are already at grid parity if you don't factor in the overpriced installation costs

6 months of each and every year are total darkness. Solar without viable storage is impractical except for the feel-good factor.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Overheal wrote: »

As far as renewables, Solar seems like a loss in Ireland. Geothermal maybe. Tidal perhaps.

Wind.

Actually solar is fine in summer here.

cnocbui

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Wind.

Actually solar is fine in summer here.

Are you being serious?

kneemos

Loads of planning applications for solar farms,whatever the viability.

listermint

Overheal wrote: »

As far as renewables, Solar seems like a loss in Ireland. Geothermal maybe. Tidal perhaps.

It's a combination of all three with smart power management. You can't discount any of them. Our climate actually supports them all.

antoinolachtnai

There are lots of things here to consider. It’s a complex topic.

First, upgrading (and even maintaining) the distribution grid is expensive.

It costs 5 or so cents for transmission and distribution of a unit of electricity (ex vat). This is a big proportion of the cost of electricity.

There are real limits to our electricity grid in Ireland. These are as big or indeed a bigger issue than generation itself. Outside urban areas we have a one-phase network with small substations and the scaling of this needs to be considered carefully.

The wholesale price of electricity is a real thing, not some sort of fantasy the electricity suppliers make up. It results from hourly and half-hourly trading.

By and large wholesale electricity is cheap when the wind is blowing (short term) or indeed when the sun is shining in Southern Europe, or when the price of gas is low (a medium-term effect).

On the other hand the price of the PSO is high when the price of gas is low. This is because the PSO pays for a price guarantee for wind turbine operators.

Electricity isn’t really getting that much more expensive. The fully loaded cost is maybe 10 or 12 percent higher today than it was a decade ago (see https://www.seai.ie/resources/publications/Electricity-and-Gas-Prices-in-Ireland-2nd-Semester-2016.pdf). The reason it is still at that level is in large part that gas prices have been kind to us.

However, if gas prices were suddenly to increase we wouldn’t see that much of a rise in our bills. That’s because the PSO charge would fall in tandem.

Price also varies through the day and week. At night electricity is sometimes priced at zero in the wholesale market. The reason is there is not much demand for wind energy at 1 am on a Saturday morning. But in the balance market it can go up to over 1 euro a kWh for short periods of time and certain categories of electricity.

So the idea is really that smart metering will be used to incentivize customers to shift their energy consumption from peak times to off peak periods when the wind is blowing. This works because heat pump and ev charging can often be deferred. It doesn’t have to run continuously or completely at the convenience of users.

But it is important that these incentives are large enough to be worthwhile and that the whole thing is workable for consumers and small businesses.

Franz Von Peppercorn

cnocbui wrote: »

Are you being serious?

Why Yes, yes I am. Solar panels don’t depend on direct sunlight and work best at < 25C. There’s a lot of hours of sunlight in Ireland in summer, albeit not all direct.

Overheal

Overheal wrote: »

As far as renewables, Solar seems like a loss in Ireland. Geothermal maybe. Tidal perhaps.

Wind will be the main source of "renewable" energy, the real changes that will happen in the future, will be the provison of grid storage systems.

We could end up with battery banks all over the country at substations and in homes to soak up the windy days energy to discharge over a few calm days.

Static battery technology is also advancing in leaps and bounds and could soon be cheap enough to be viable in this regard.

Not sure why wind is renewble, we don't exactly generate it to replace the wind extracted by the turbines. :P

whiskeyman

kneemos wrote: »

Loads of planning applications for solar farms,whatever the viability.

Many will never see the light of day...

dhaughton99

A lady was on liveline 3 weeks ago who had a holiday home in the sticks and whose bill was €68. €4 is spent on electric and the rest was on levies and tax. That was before the 4% increases kick in.

Markcheese

dhaughton99 wrote: »

A lady was on liveline 3 weeks ago who had a holiday home in the sticks and whose bill was €68. €4 is spent on electric and the rest was on levies and tax. That was before the 4% increases kick in.

Fair enough, the connection and the lines and capacity are expensive.. Do you want to pay extra to cover hers, she could always get a prepay meter, (I think they charge about 1.50 a day connection fee..

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

dhaughton99 wrote: »

A lady was on liveline 3 weeks ago who had a holiday home in the sticks and whose bill was €68. €4 is spent on electric and the rest was on levies and tax. That was before the 4% increases kick in.

Not sure how she worked that out. I'm rural and standing charges, PSO, and vat total €42.84 per two months. She may pay the low usage charge that adds about €5 per bill. Therefore she's overstating the charges by about €20.

dhaughton99

Haley Plump Ticker wrote: »

Not sure how she worked that out. I'm rural and standing charges, PSO, and vat total €42.84 per two months. She may pay the low usage charge that adds about €5 per bill. Therefore she's overstating the charges by about €20.

Sorry I got the number slightly wrong.

Emma has a holiday home in Donegal and has been doing her best to conserve energy. Her latest electricity bill showed €4.18 in units used but the total bill was €61.98!

Published: 04/03/2019 12:00 Type: Audio
Duration: 9:11 Played: No
Status: In feed Size: N/A
Link: https://www.rte.ie/cspodcasts/media.mp3?c1=2&c2=16951747&ns_site=test&ns_type=clickin&rte_vs_ct=aud&rte_vs_sc=pod&rte_mt_sec=radio&rte_vs_sn=radio1&rte_mt_pub_dt=2019-03-04&rte_mt_prg_name=test-liveline&title=Holiday%20Home%20Bills&c7=https%3A%2F%2Fpodcast.rasset.ie%2Fpodcasts%2Faudio%2F2019%2F0304%2F20190304_rteradio1-liveline-holidayhom_c21520578_21520582_232_.mp3&r=https%3A%2F%2Fpodcast.rasset.ie%2Fpodcasts%2Faudio%2F2019%2F0304%2F20190304_rteradio1-liveline-holidayhom_c21520578_21520582_232_.mp3

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

dhaughton99 wrote: »

Sorry I got the number slightly wrong.

Emma has a holiday home in Donegal and has been doing her best to conserve energy. Her latest electricity bill showed €4.18 in units used but the total bill was €61.98!

Published: 04/03/2019 12:00 Type: Audio
Duration: 9:11 Played: No
Status: In feed Size: N/A
Link: https://www.rte.ie/cspodcasts/media.mp3?c1=2&c2=16951747&ns_site=test&ns_type=clickin&rte_vs_ct=aud&rte_vs_sc=pod&rte_mt_sec=radio&rte_vs_sn=radio1&rte_mt_pub_dt=2019-03-04&rte_mt_prg_name=test-liveline&title=Holiday%20Home%20Bills&c7=https%3A%2F%2Fpodcast.rasset.ie%2Fpodcasts%2Faudio%2F2019%2F0304%2F20190304_rteradio1-liveline-holidayhom_c21520578_21520582_232_.mp3&r=https%3A%2F%2Fpodcast.rasset.ie%2Fpodcasts%2Faudio%2F2019%2F0304%2F20190304_rteradio1-liveline-holidayhom_c21520578_21520582_232_.mp3

She's still slightly overstating it but, regardless, she has to pay the cost of getting the supply to her and maintaining it, so she can just flick a switch whenever she arrives to the house on her holidays: and those costs are, rightly so, the same for all customers regardless of usage.

cnocbui

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Why Yes, yes I am. Solar panels don’t depend on direct sunlight and work best at < 25C. There’s a lot of hours of sunlight in Ireland in summer, albeit not all direct.

Do you have solar panels on your house?

Capt'n Midnight

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

In the future each home will have its own little nuclear reactor, where the immersion heater used to be, and we won't have to worry about turning it off.

Our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap to meter.
- Atomic Energy Commission Chairman Lewis Strauss 1954

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

Do you have solar panels on your house?

I do and here's today's chart of solar generated (blue) and exported (Green, given away for free!)

Capt'n Midnight

Overheal wrote: »

As far as renewables, Solar seems like a loss in Ireland. Geothermal maybe. Tidal perhaps.

Solar is getting cheaper all the time. Not there 24/7 but it's getting so cheap that it's not worth ignoring.

Commercialising transparent coatings for windows that use Infrared or UV while allowing most of the visible light though is likely to happen before we get a nuclear plant through planning objections though to operation.

If there is a break through in year long energy storage costs then solar wins.
A 60m2 roof with 20% efficient panels would keep a passive house going.

Victor

Overheal wrote: »

As far as renewables, Solar seems like a loss in Ireland.

Solar thermal for domestic hot water is decent enough and OKish for photo-voltaic.

Geothermal maybe.

Not enough volcanoes or hot springs. TCD do use it for their heating though.

dhaughton99 wrote: »

Sorry I got the number slightly wrong.

Emma has a holiday home in Donegal and has been doing her best to conserve energy. Her latest electricity bill showed €4.18 in units used but the total bill was €61.98!

Those other charges are about providing capacity and connections to that property for the whole year. Whether the property is in use or not, the maintenance of the cables costs the same. If it's a rural property, then the cost is higher than average.

sligojoek

Haley Plump Ticker wrote: »

Not sure how she worked that out. I'm rural and standing charges, PSO, and vat total €42.84 per two months. She may pay the low usage charge that adds about €5 per bill. Therefore she's overstating the charges by about €20.

THat would be nothing new on Liveline. Never let facts get in the way of a good story.

whisky_galore

zapitastas wrote: »

As long as they don't use the same building firm that was involved with the national aquatic centre

Probably using same tendering process as the Children's Hospital...

Overheal

Victor wrote: »

Solar thermal for domestic hot water is decent enough and OKish for photo-voltaic.

Gonna depend on your break-evens. Had to do a project on solar water heating - spreadsheet is around here somewhere. Very latitude and initial-cost dependent.

Infini

It would be highly unlikely that any kind of fission Nuclear Reactor would be approved here unless we were seriously short on power, too, local opposition would be off the scale too and too many risks and Fukushima a few years ago didnt do the industry any favours. There's also the whole waste issue to deal with as well. Likely the only kind of Nuclear reactor's well ever see on this island would likely be Fusion one's should they eventually develop one that's commercially viable. Besides we got a big ass ocean we can milk for cash all around us!

antoinolachtnai

Infini wrote: »

It would be highly unlikely that any kind of fission Nuclear Reactor would be approved here unless we were seriously short on power, too, local opposition would be off the scale too and too many risks and Fukushima a few years ago didnt do the industry any favours. There's also the whole waste issue to deal with as well. Likely the only kind of Nuclear reactor's well ever see on this island would likely be Fusion one's should they eventually develop one that's commercially viable. Besides we got a big ass ocean we can milk for cash all around us!

It would be wrong to think that electricity bills would fall in the short or medium term if there were a breakthrough like this.

When you hear talk about cheap or free electricity it in fact means electricity with a small incremental cost. However, you still need to make a massive upfront investment to build these new technologies and this cost has to be passed on in some form.

cnocbui

Deleted User wrote: »

I do and here's today's chart of solar generated (blue) and exported (Green, given away for free!)

How long from installation till it has paid for itself? In Oz the break even period for solar is about 5-7 years so here it's going to be 10-14 years here, given half the annual sunshine in Dublin vs Sydney? The lifespan of a PV installation is 25 years so you will only be in profit for half the lifespan.

That graph seems to show that when clouds are overhead you go from 3.5 KWh to 0.5 - 0.6? So on overcast days you are generating around 0.6 KWh for maybe 5 hours at this time of year, and a lot less for the other 7? So maybe 4-5 KW in a day. With an EV with a 30 Kw battery it would take 6 days to charge it's battery 80%?

Dublin gets 1424 hours of sunshine annually out of a theoretical 4380, meaning that for 67% of the daylight hours in a year your solar panels are producing just 13.5% of their potential. Ireland just doesn't seem a place where Solar anything makes any sense.

Franz Von Peppercorn

This link says Boston, Seattle and Portland are good places for solar.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/08/solar-panels-work-cloudy-days-just-less-effectively/

cnocbui

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

This link says Boston, Seattle and Portland are good places for solar.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/08/solar-panels-work-cloudy-days-just-less-effectively/

Have you put your money where your beliefs are - put panels on your roof?

Portland Oregon gets 2340 hours of annual sunshine, Seattle gets 2170 - Dublin gets 1424 - Ireland is one of the worst places on Earth to have solar PV. By all means spend as much of your own money on pursuing this nonsense as you wish.

Anyone in Ireland who truly wants to be green, as opposed to deluding themselves - should just move to a warmer climate. The average temperature in Ireland on an annual basis is 10° C, which means fossil fuels, in most cases, need to be used to heat homes to a more comfortable 20°c The energy that requires makes Solar PV look pathetic.

I am planning to do exactly that - move to a warmer climate with double the hours of annual sunshine.

Ubbquittious

cnocbui wrote: »

6 months of each and every year are total darkness. Solar without viable storage is impractical except for the feel-good factor.

You must be a good few degrees further North than I am. Havn't seen a full day of total darkness here ever

Franz Von Peppercorn

cnocbui wrote: »

Have you put your money where your beliefs are - put panels on your roof?

No, and that’s a personal question not an answer to my general statement (where I also said that wind was the best option for Ireland but solar works). Dolan baker showed he was in surplus for much of the March 17th, a not very sunny day.

Portland Oregon gets 2340 hours of annual sunshine, Seattle gets 2170 - Dublin gets 1424 - Ireland is one of the worst places on Earth to have solar PV. By all means spend as much of your own money on pursuing this nonsense as you wish.

That’s direct rather than indirect sunlight and as the article I linked to said, solar works in indirect sunlight. It also works better below 25c. I merely said that solar works in Ireland, by the way, not that it would be the main form of renewables.

Anyone in Ireland who truly wants to be green, as opposed to deluding themselves - should just move to a warmer climate. The average temperature in Ireland on an annual basis is 10° C, which means fossil fuels, in most cases, need to be used to heat homes to a more comfortable 20°c The energy that requires makes Solar PV look pathetic.

that is the average temperature per year, day and night. You seem to be missing the cost of air conditioning in hot climates. Australia is far higher than Ireland (and Ireland is too high).

I am planning to do exactly that - move to a warmer climate with double the hours of annual sunshine.

That’s your own personal hang up, good for you. Don’t use any aircon.

Before weak minds started on personal usage I did mention that wind is our best strategy but solar works in Ireland.

Pinch Flat

Electricity is a finite resource. Eventually we’ll run out of it and will need to work on finding a replacement.

Pinch Flat

Pinch Flat wrote: »

Electricity is a finite resource. Eventually we’ll run out of it and will need to work on finding a replacement.

What a highly charged comment, I'm sure it'll spark some witty replies.

1874

there seems to be a big push towards solar pv, I'm still considering getting a solar thermal set up, i believe they are common in places like Austria which are a similar latitude to us and have similar levels of light, as much as I'd like to have both or even a large pv array, i just don't think it's as useful, payback seems too long, I'd be curious what the savings are compared to say a more efficient boiler, pv at the moment means use it or lose it, and all the connected devices to manage it is extra cost that I think might be more cost and actually effective on businesses roofs like supermarkets,anyone that uses a significant amount of electricity during the day too, the payback must be shorter there plus could claim back costs against tax.

Pinch Flat

Deleted User wrote: »

What a highly charged comment, I'm sure it'll spark some witty replies.

Some negative, some positive I'd imagine

hmmm

For me, one of the key benefits of renewables is that the money is invested in firms in Ireland & mostly Europe. Instead of us paying hundreds of billions every year to despots in the Middle East, the money is re-invested in our own economies. We will be paying Danish firms to build windmills, Irish firms to erect them, Swiss firms to build the infrastructure etc etc.

So even if prices increase, which is arguable, the money will largely be circulated back into the economy of Ireland & the EU.

Paddy Cow

cnocbui wrote: »

Electricity prices will have to rise because 10% of government revenues come from motoring taxes. Some EV dreamers think the government will just increase vat to 30%, or something similar, but I doubt it. The government loves using scatter taxes to disguise the true tax burden.

100% this. Electricity is already 50% usage and 50% taxes. I've stopped reading the breakdown because it annoys me so much. What irritates me the most is that they have electricity usage, then PSO levy, then standing charges per day for being connected and because I have storage heaters there's a standing charge for those (which obviously I don't use in the warmer months) and then they add VAT of top of all that. So there's tax added to the taxes :mad:

Plus it's already increased a lot. I live in a one bedroom flat. My bill for two summer months used to be €70 four or five years ago. Now it's €100+.

Ubbquittious

hmmm wrote: »

For me, one of the key benefits of renewables is that the money is invested in firms in Ireland & mostly Europe. Instead of us paying hundreds of billions every year to despots in the Middle East, the money is re-invested in our own economies. We will be paying Danish firms to build windmills, Irish firms to erect them, Swiss firms to build the infrastructure etc etc.

So even if prices increase, which is arguable, the money will largely be circulated back into the economy of Ireland & the EU.

Unfortunately the Chinese have made sh1t of the non-chinese solar panel industry and they have a good foothold in some other renewable energy products as well

cnocbui

Ubbquittious wrote: »

You must be a good few degrees further North than I am. Havn't seen a full day of total darkness here ever

I presume you understood what I meant and were just being humorous?

cnocbui

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

No, and that’s a personal question not an answer to my general statement (where I also said that wind was the best option for Ireland but solar works). Dolan baker showed he was in surplus for much of the March 17th, a not very sunny day.

That’s direct rather than indirect sunlight and as the article I linked to said, solar works in indirect sunlight. It also works better below 25c. I merely said that solar works in Ireland, by the way, not that it would be the main form of renewables.

that is the average temperature per year, day and night. You seem to be missing the cost of air conditioning in hot climates. Australia is far higher than Ireland (and Ireland is too high).

That’s your own personal hang up, good for you. Don’t use any aircon.

Before weak minds started on personal usage I did mention that wind is our best strategy but solar works in Ireland.

Dolan Bakers graph doesn't include his energy usage after dark, so that isn't true.

I lived in Australia for 30 years and only had aircon for the last two, so not a problem, mate. Aircon uses very little energy when you do use it to cool off compared to how much energy you need here annually, to heat.

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

Dolan Bakers graph doesn't include his energy usage after dark, so that isn't true.

I lived in Australia for 30 years and only had aircon for the last two, so not a problem, mate. Aircon uses very little energy when you do use it to cool off compared to how much energy you need here annually, to heat.

Solar panels don't generate after sunset or in poor light, that is a given.
The chart only displayed solar generated and solar exported nothing else.
If I had batteries, I would store the surplus to use in the evenings and if I had wind I could generate significant amounts of energy most nights as well, sufficient to charge batteries on windy nights as well.

Ubbquittious

cnocbui wrote: »

I presume you understood what I meant and were just being humorous?

Hard enough to guess now






I wonder has someone tried running a heat pump directly off a wind turbine. Maybe with a few supercpacitors or small battery array to smoothen the power source. The ground slab for underfloor heating could smoothen it out much further. Where I live now this system would have a good chance at replacing the oil central heating without being dependent on the grid but I don't own the house so can't try it out. One would have to re-engineer the controller for the heatpump and very little else