Is anyone else starting to become a bit excited?

Bob24

makeorbrake wrote: »

Ok, but your welfare state analogy doesn't fit in this instance.

Yes it does.

You could have a similar chain of events whereby a small group of people decides to largely opt-out of national currencies (for reasons which are valid from their own perspective). Then because that small group has left, it would weaken national currencies for another wave of people, and so one as per the mechanism I had described.

There could be others, but one reason I see which could trigger the initial wave is a refusal of the fact that in practice national currencies are used as a way to tax depositors to boost economic activity. From an individual depositor’s selfish perspective it is not good and one might want to opt-out, but if the depositor’s income also depends on economic activity it might be worth accepting that hidden tax as long as everybody also accepts it. In short, within reason John Doe accepts inflation and currency devaluation (causing him a loss of savings) because the counterpart is that it is boosting government spendings and economic activity and thus employment and salaries (increasing his income). Since that system essentially transfers wealth from depositors to workers and public service users, the more he relies on savings vs labour income and government spendings, the more likely he is to feel the system is not working for him (the typical exemple in Europe of someone who feels it is not benefiting them is a German pensioner). But overall a majority of the population is currently OK with it.
Problem is that individual acceptance relies on the fact that as a group everyone is forced to accept the drawbacks in order to enjoy the benefits (John only accepts this because he knows everyone also accepts it; if a minority of depositors start to refuse the system, its value will weaken for the majority which has chose to remain inside and it will cause another batch of people to start refusing it, similarly to my welfare state exemple). So once you offer a way for individuals to easily opt-out of the drawbacks (loss of currency value) while still enjoying some of the (weakening) benefits - gradually everyone opts our as layer by layer different parts of society see the system becoming non-beneficial to them after the departure of the previous layer.

Now of course if what the majority wants is to to replace our money by very hard money it is fine from a democratic perspective (from a practical perspective, whether it is a good idea is open for debate - but the majority rules). But it should be a controlled and voluntary group choice, rather than a chain process triggered by a minority.

Dohnjoe

Addison Fancy Macrame wrote: »

Says who? Just Dohnjoe it appears.

It"s common knowledge

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-31/bitcoin-s-rally-masks-uncomfortable-fact-almost-nobody-uses-it

Hardly anyone is using the world’s largest cryptocurrency for anything beyond speculation. Data from New York-based blockchain researcher Chainalysis Inc. show that only 1.3% of economic transactions came from merchants in the first four months of 2019, little changed over the boom and bust cycles of the prior two years.

JohnnyFlash

Addison Fancy Macrame wrote: »

Says who? Just Dohnjoe it appears.

It’s not even speculation. It’s degenerate gambling masquerading as risky investing. The only use cases found for crypto in 10 years are money laundering, and paying for drugs and child porn on darknet markets.

Dohnjoe

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

It’s not even speculation. It’s degenerate gambling masquerading as risky investing. The only use cases found for crypto in 10 years are money laundering, and paying for drugs and child porn on darknet markets.

Did you buy any yet?

q85dw7osi4lebg

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Everyone, it"s common knowledge

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-31/bitcoin-s-rally-masks-uncomfortable-fact-almost-nobody-uses-it

Oh, so because a biased financial media outlets says so it must be true. I see.

JohnnyFlash

Addison Fancy Macrame wrote: »

Oh, so because a biased financial media outlets says so it must be true. I see.

Why is Bloomberg biased? Any examples of media outlets that aren’t biased against crypto?

Dohnjoe

Addison Fancy Macrame wrote: »

Oh, so because a biased financial media outlets says so it must be true. I see.

They didn't, they aren't the source. I suggest reading the article before blindly dismissing it

makeorbrake

Dohnjoe wrote: »

In crypto that is overwhelmingly the main show right now

I'm not sure why you brought this up at this juncture in the conversation. I wouldn't use the same language but yes, it's quite a significant part of activity right now.
In the context of this latest discussion, I made the point that Bitcoin as it stands today isn't going to motivate the masses to transfer across to crypto and abandon FIAT. FIAT is the incumbent system we have. For that scale of transfer something significant would have to happen to FIAT (as in total mismanagement) for people to consider an alternative.

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes it does.

I disagree.

Bob24 wrote: »

You could have a similar chain of events whereby a small group of people decides to largely opt-out of national currencies (for reasons which are valid from their own perspective). Then because that small group has left, it would weaken national currencies for another wave of people, and so one as per the mechanism I had described.

A 'small group of people' won't weaken a FIAT currency. Mismanagement of an economy and a FIAT currency by a government and its central bank will! And it's likely to lead to people to look at alternatives in much greater numbers at that point.

Bob24 wrote: »

There could be others, but one reason I see which could trigger the initial wave is a refusal of the fact that in practice national currencies are used as a way to tax depositors to boost economic activity.

There are many means of applying taxation. We now have the technology to enable very precise pay per use. That may be the way forward in the future.

Bob24 wrote: »

From an individual depositor’s selfish perspective it is not good and one might want to opt-out, but if the depositor’s income also depends on economic activity it might be worth accepting that hidden tax as long as everybody also accepts it.

There's quite a focus on a perceived 'selfishness'. People have a duty of care to themselves to act with self interest. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that.

Bob24 wrote: »

In short, within reason John Doe accepts inflation and currency devaluation (causing him a loss of savings) because the counterpart is that it is boosting government spendings and economic activity and thus employment and salaries (increasing his income).

I think many are oblivious to the effects of inflation. I see it as a stealth tax. I don't want it and don't agree with it. In the nordic countries, they've found that 20% of peoples taxes are lost within the tax system itself. Who knows what it is in Ireland. Perhaps it would be more progressive to employ blockchain within that system and see exactly where that money is going?

Bob24 wrote: »

Since that system essentially transfers wealth from depositors to workers and public service users, the more he relies on savings vs labour income and government spendings, the more likely he is to feel the system is not working for him (the typical exemple in Europe of someone who feels it is not benefiting them is a German pensioner). But overall a majority of the population is currently OK with it.

Probably as a result of the shenanigans that came to a head in 2008, people worldwide are far less trusting of governments, public administrations, etc. The crypto movement forms part of that.
They have every right to question it. You've mentioned people feeling aggrieved but the reality is that we all have a right to feel aggrieved. There's no doubt but that public money is being misspent in every jurisdiction. It's just a question of how bad it gets - country by country. There's no doubt that we have better technology that could provide for more equitable taxation if the will was there to implement it.
You're putting this on individuals 'selfishness'. What of governments and people in public administration that are not acting in the best interests of citizens? That is where this starts from.

There's been talk of crypto and tax evasion and also the need to withdraw cash to counter evasion and illicit use. Ok. Will the same administrations that try and enforce this apply the same standards to themselves - and utilise blockchain right throughout public administration so that we can follow the money in its entirety? Turkeys don't vote for christmas!

Bob24 wrote: »

Problem is that individual acceptance relies on the fact that as a group everyone is forced to accept the drawbacks in order to enjoy the benefits (John only accepts this because he knows everyone also accepts it; if a minority of depositors start to refuse the system, its value will weaken for the majority which has chose to remain inside and it will cause another batch of people to start refusing it, similarly to my welfare state exemple). So once you offer a way for individuals to easily opt-out of the drawbacks (loss of currency value) while still enjoying some of the (weakening) benefits - gradually everyone opts our as layer by layer different parts of society see the system becoming non-beneficial to them after the departure of the previous layer.

Technology doesn't stop for anyone. You can build systems around it - and respond to it as it develops. That's what needs to happen in your example. It's not realistic to ask people to hold the line and not utilise it - that simply won't happen.
Consider also the fact that in the longer term - despite certain issues - we could still end up in a far greater position than the starting point.

Bob24 wrote: »

Now of course if what the majority wants is to to replace our money by very hard money it is fine from a democratic perspective (from a practical perspective, whether it is a good idea is open for debate - but the majority rules). But it should be a controlled and voluntary group choice, rather than a chain process triggered by a minority.

So - right now the majority either don't agree with crypto, don't understand it or don't see the value in it. More technically minded people are more familiar with the technology and see great value in it. You want to wait until the majority give it the seal of approval before its used? That's not how things work in real life.

What technology is not triggered by a minority?


On a side note, I'd sooner leave this taxation business aside - as we're veering off topic.

makeorbrake

As regards purported manipulation by Bitfinex/Tether in 2017, there's this => Twitter

Thargor

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

https://www.wsj.com/articles/large-bitcoin-player-manipulated-price-sharply-higher-study-says-11572863400?mod=hp_lead_pos4

A paper about to be published in the Journal of Finance suggesting that the bubble in late 2017 was largely caused by Tether and a mysterious trader on Bitfinex. Tether created out of thin air to buy bitcoin, canny crypto investors rush in with real money because of FOMO, bitcoin and alt coins bought with tether are sold to them for real money, real money is cashed out.

Nothing that people like myself and Pintman weren’t suggesting at the time. Most of the twitter accounts closely associated with Bitfinex are not happy with this report.

So just yourself then?

Thargor

Lol, that reminds me of the time Jonnyflash boasted of how he likes to vote twice in elections because he gets 2 voter cards at 2 addresses or something, surprised at the reaction from Boards calling him various types of scumbag etc he panicked and got his Pintman Paddy account to suddenly appear to lend support, Paddy also just happened to have 2 voting cards aswell and tried to reassure people that this was fine, good times

Arrival

Thargor wrote: »

Lol, that reminds me of the time Jonnyflash boasted of how he likes to vote twice in elections because he gets 2 voter cards at 2 addresses or something, surprised at the reaction from Boards calling him various types of scumbag etc he panicked and got his Pintman Paddy account to suddenly appear to lend support, Paddy also just happened to have 2 voting cards aswell and tried to reassure people that this was fine, good times

...to be honest, at this point I just kind of feel bad for him

Bob24

Apparently China are scrapping their plan to ban cryptocurrency mining: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bullish-for-bitcoin-china-scraps-plans-to-ban-cryptocurrency-mining

Quite a good news in terms of bitcoin hash power ...

unkel

I'm not that surprised. Chinese economic decisions seem largely pragmatic these days. Bitcoin mining in China is largely done on renewable electricity and China has more of that than the rest of the world combined (both hydro, PV and wind). And adding to it at an extraordinary pace. A lot of "wealth" is generated in China from BTC mining by the likes of Bitmain alone.

JJJJNR

Interesting reading, not sure if posted in the right thread or not. Hacker group accessed bank funds and bought bitcoin.. for the greater good of crypto.

Real Robin hood stuff.

https://pastebin.com/8rXhtqgr

Dohnjoe

JJJJNR wrote: »

Interesting reading, not sure if posted in the right thread or not. Hacker group accessed bank funds and bought bitcoin.. for the greater good of crypto.

Real Robin hood stuff.

https://pastebin.com/8rXhtqgr

Site doesnt work for me, what happened?

JJJJNR

First couple of lines.

Translation notes:
Bulk of translation done by Google Translate (which did a remarkably good job outside of slang and computer terms!), with edits for clarity and formatting by @laudecay. I got the Spanish version from the bottom of this article, it’s in the leak: https://unicornriot.ninja/2019/massive-hack-strikes-offshore-cayman-national-bank-and-trust/
The UR article also has a lot of info about the history of Phineas’s hacks and resources she’s provided to the community in the past, and Crimethinc has some interviews with her. She’s also posted video interviews (a puppet and a voice actor reading chat logs, lol) and a screencast of her hacking a police department
Sources are mostly left as in the original, except where there was an obvious directly translated english version lying around

FFVII

17,000 for Xmas

Fill your boxers

(So I'm told)

Dohnjoe

FFVII wrote: »

17,000 for Xmas

Fill your boxers

(So I'm told)

50k, 100k, 1 million according to a bunch of crypto pundits/talking heads who plucked numbers out of the air

Lex Luthor

FFVII wrote: »

17,000 for Xmas

Fill your boxers

(So I'm told)

is that for 2?

FFVII

Dohnjoe wrote: »

50k, 100k, 1 million according to a bunch of crypto pundits/talking heads who plucked numbers out of the air

Same guy that said 6 was incoming a few months ago sooooooo...

Dohnjoe

FFVII wrote: »

Same guy that said 6 was incoming a few months ago sooooooo...

Every day countless internet people make predictions, if just one of them is right (broken clock right twice a day), then they are hailed as the messiah. When their next "plucked out of thin air" prediction is wrong, they are swiftly forgotten. Fantastic system.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Serious bump in my BTC holding with the current prices. Going to be tight with the Christmas presents this year, too much stacking to be done.

Dohnjoe

Just did a few purchases there last night, haven't done that in awhile. Took a whirl on BTC, Eth and BNB.

Bob24

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Just did a few purchases there last night, haven't done that in awhile. Took a whirl on BTC, Eth and BNB.

I’m in two minds about BNB. It has taken a massive beating in the past couple of months and I think considering there is the power of Binance behind it I think there could be a very strong recovery of/when it changes direction.

But on the other hand, there really isn’t anything good to look at on the charts for the past 6 months.

I’d make a move on it at this prices, but having in mind that it could really go either way and I am hoping for a nice reward if the direction is up.

Lex Luthor

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Just did a few purchases there last night, haven't done that in awhile. Took a whirl on BTC, Eth and BNB.

Nice one, its been a while since there was some opportunity to take

This move yesterday more than likely came from Bitcoin filling the gap in the CME futures which was about $6500 range

there is another gap around $11,800 so watching the price action for that one

Price could still go anyway in the next few weeks, there is nice support at $7,000 so should tip along this for a few more days, then again tomorrow is the triple witch friday so anything could happen

Dohnjoe

Bob24 wrote: »

I’m in two minds about BNB. It has taken a massive beating in the past couple of months and I think considering there is the power of Binance behind it I think there could be a very strong recovery of/when it changes direction.

But on the other hand, there really isn’t anything good to look at on the charts for the past 6 months.

I’d make a move on it at this prices, but having in mind that it could really go either way and I am hoping for a nice reward if the direction is up.

Yeah I still think it's overpriced. But alts in general are so up to chance, even if a project is decent it can just be caught up in the maelstrom of selling and interest in it gets wiped, along with price

Whereas with BNB, it's one of the most "solid" out of all of them (using that term loosely), as a token it's used for something, and I believe the exchange can actually survive on it's own revenue (which definitely isn't the case for 99.9% of alts)

If this bear never ends, everything is going down anyway
If (similar to the dotcom crash) most crypto dies, but a few do very well - then BNB as the premier exchange is well placed to benefit from that
If there is another large bull run of most coins (like 2017) again, as the premier exchange, it is well placed to do well

Two out of three scenarios is better than most alts, or "least worst". Of course the exchange itself could suffer a massive killer hack, but that's always a risk, and I think they are more resilient than most other exchanges

GodlikeRed

Its BTC all the way for me.
I've messed around with other coins for a couple of years and would've been better off just (money & mind) sticking with BTC.

Lex Luthor

Nice few % gains on BTC in last 24hrs. Only fear is that it may well retrace to fill the CME Futures gap created over the weekend, however that low point is still at a decent level.

If it can close above €7050 its a really good sign.

Grumpypants

So the Bitcoin hash ribbon just crossed into "buy" territory for the tenth time.

What's this you say, and why should i care?

Across the 9 other times this happened, we saw an average of a 5000% rise. Last time was only 330%. But that would still put us on the right side of 15k.

This ribbon basically shows miners giving up. That's not a bad thing.

When the small miners give up (usually the ones who sell everything and put a lot of selling pressure on the market) it leaves only the serious operations that don't need to sell constantly. The pressure lifts, the price rises.

Couple this cross with the up coming halving also reducing the reward and making it harder to earn, and we could be on the cusp on the next break out.

Of course it could go all belly up so never invest in what you can't afford to lose.

Dohnjoe

We're also over the twice repeated December dip - but then again, crypto has proven itself to be reliably unpredictable

If we have another dead year or false bull, will be very curious to see what it does in 2021.

Lex Luthor

Grumpypants wrote: »

So the Bitcoin hash ribbon just crossed into "buy" territory for the tenth time.

What's this you say, and why should i care?

Across the 9 other times this happened, we saw an average of a 5000% rise. Last time was only 330%. But that would still put us on the right side of 15k.

This ribbon basically shows miners giving up. That's not a bad thing.

When the small miners give up (usually the ones who sell everything and put a lot of selling pressure on the market) it leaves only the serious operations that don't need to sell constantly. The pressure lifts, the price rises.

Couple this cross with the up coming halving also reducing the reward and making it harder to earn, and we could be on the cusp on the next break out.

Of course it could go all belly up so never invest in what you can't afford to lose.

ya seen that its just starting to compress so if you base it on previous occurrences they were all prior to bull runs

grindle

https://www.glamourmagazine.co.uk/article/what-is-blockchain-technology

Slow news day.

banie01

I've been grinding away on crypto - crypto trades over the last couple of months and growing overall volume held.

Have been moving some holdings out of equities and into fixed income over the last while too.

The drop in ALTs across the board Vs BTC has opened some medium term potential for gains Vs BTC IMO.

It's mad to think that being a BTC maximilist, ie holding and accumulation of an incredibly volatile asset/instrument is any more rational than piling into ALTs or Florida swamp land

But somehow it is and here's to next year's bloody roller coaster

el Fenomeno

banie01 wrote: »

I've been grinding away on crypto - crypto trades over the last couple of months and growing overall volume held.

Have been moving some holdings out of equities and into fixed income over the last while too.

The drop in ALTs across the board Vs BTC has opened some medium term potential for gains Vs BTC IMO.

It's mad to think that being a BTC maximilist, ie holding and accumulation of an incredibly volatile asset/instrument is any more rational than piling into ALTs or Florida swamp land

But somehow it is and here's to next year's bloody roller coaster

I've doubled the amount of Ripple I own by trading in and out of Bitcoin the last 6 months or so.

My investment is now twice as worthless as it was before the summer.

banie01

el Fenomeno wrote: »

I've doubled the amount of Ripple I own by trading in and out of Bitcoin the last 6 months or so.

My investment is now twice as worthless as it was before the summer.

Well there is always that, double nothing is still nothing I suppose

q85dw7osi4lebg

Happy year of the halving



Fun times ahead.

JJJJNR

2019 was such an eye opener to the world of cryptocurrency for me, I made some nice gains on Eth then BAT which I sold and put it all into XLM and then into other cent projects on the stellar network and tbh not down a whole lot.

Here's for 2020 and a massive bang on the upside.

JJJJNR

Nothing like the threat of ww3 to give crypto a pump, not sure we will see 73 dollar eth again this year.

unkel

JJJJNR wrote: »

Nothing like the threat of ww3 to give crypto a pump, not sure we will see 73 dollar eth again this year.

It didn't quite go that low last year, did it? I thought it was more like 83 dollar or so the lowest closing price.

JJJJNR

73 euro dec 15 2018, seems so long ago now.

JohnnyFlash

JJJJNR wrote: »

73 euro dec 15 2018, seems so long ago now.

Massive bags of shîtcoins are denominated in dollars, dude.

unkel

JJJJNR wrote: »

73 euro dec 15 2018, seems so long ago now.

Ah ok, you said dollar before. We really shouldn't quote crypto prices in EUR, the volatility in USD is bad enough

Frozen Veg

We seem to be ready for take off.

Fasten your seat belts.

Grumpypants

I've been locked in for months now lol

Lex Luthor

Nice 24hrs for XRP
Probably on the back of this
https://www.binance.com/en/support/articles/360038497311

Dohnjoe

2 days of positive movements after months of downward/sideways movement. Ahh January.

Grumpypants

The boom is back

paleoperson

So in general terms bitcoin has been decreasing steadily since June 2019 from €7,000 to €6,500 and no signs of abating.

I told you all. You can't make money out of thin air. Any money you do get from it is just taking from someone else.

makeorbrake

paleoperson wrote: »

So in general terms bitcoin has been decreasing steadily since June 2019 from €7,000 to €6,500 and no signs of abating.

Bitcoin has put in higher lows each year over eleven years. That means it's been appreciating. You may have missed it but it was recently recognised as the asset class with the best return on investment over the course of the last decade.

paleoperson wrote: »

I told you all. You can't make money out of thin air. Any money you do get from it is just taking from someone else.

And how does this work with Forex and gold? Is it any different? You are also setting out from an errant premise i.e. that this is vapourware. That's not the case.

Interesting turn of phrase though, this -> 'You can't make money out of thin air'. Well, any central bank around the world can. You cannot tell me how many dollars are in circulation, how many will be in circulation tomorrow, next month, next year, etc. Meanwhile, we know that there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoin. Some see the significance of that whilst others can't see the wood for the trees.