Is anyone else starting to become a bit excited?

jimmii

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

I presume that is aimed at me. I've had to say it many times before, but I'll say it again for clarity - I don't take any particular pleasure in people losing money on this odious ponzi scheme. Not the rubes anyway. I do love the idea of sociopaths like Wright, Justin Sun, Pomp etc losing their bollocks.



What I don't like is how the rubes try to rope new blood into the crypto ponzi. This takes many forms - FOMO, the halving, fundamentals, 200 (or other random figure) DMA, distributed finance, store of value etc etc. They make this attempt to confuse new blood by using technical mumbo-jumbo that they don't understand themselves.



I've toned down significantly in my use of language to show how contemptuous I find all this.

No not you. Totally agree with what you say about how some stuff is put put there to drum up money from people who don't quite have any business putting money in. Some of the crap you see on Twitter you have to think come on you aren't really believing that crap you're posting are you! The people just coming in to gloat and not contribute and essentially just troll are the issue.

Thargor

I dont see any noobs getting fleeced around here though so no idea why the dregs spend so much time educating us with their monumental wisdom, this board is pretty much all traders and pretty cynical ones at that. The way they disappear during times of gains and slink back in during a big fall is pathetic tbh.

grindle

Thargor wrote: »

I dont see any noobs getting fleeced around here though so no idea why the dregs spend so much time educating us with their monumental wisdom, this board is pretty much all traders and pretty cynical ones at that. The way they disappear during times of gains and slink back in during a big fall is pathetic tbh.

^^^

Dear noobs, if you're not prepared to lose it all, put nothing in.

Signed,

The rubes.

cnocbui

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

I presume that is aimed at me. I've had to say it many times before, but I'll say it again for clarity - I don't take any particular pleasure in people losing money on this odious ponzi scheme. Not the rubes anyway. I do love the idea of sociopaths like Wright, Justin Sun, Pomp etc losing their bollocks.

What I don't like is how the rubes try to rope new blood into the crypto ponzi. This takes many forms - FOMO, the halving, fundamentals, 200 (or other random figure) DMA, distributed finance, store of value etc etc. They make this attempt to confuse new blood by using technical mumbo-jumbo that they don't understand themselves.

I've toned down significantly in my use of language to show how contemptuous I find all this.

Many people heavily invested in equities have lost their shirts and even pensions - far more serious consequences than people taking a punt with cryptos.

All forms of 'investment' are ponzi schemes, predicated on someone willing to pay you more in the future than you paid for your house, land, gold bar, shares in Ryanair, Bitcoin or limited edition Royal Jubilee tea cup. People used to even consider postage stamps as sound investments, until email came along and spoiled the fun.

Dohnjoe

cnocbui wrote: »

All forms of 'investment' are ponzi schemes, predicated on someone willing to pay you more in the future than you paid for your house, land, gold bar, shares in Ryanair, Bitcoin or limited edition Royal Jubilee tea cup. People used to even consider postage stamps as sound investments, until email came along and spoiled the fun.

Shares are literally a "share" of a company, if the company performs well, the share value technically rises (they often produce dividends). Land is a scarce resource that, with the odd crisis aside, generally goes up in value over time and produces rent. Bonds is debt that produces interest payments, e.g. your high interest South American debt is higher yield but much more of a risk than your US treasuries.

These are tangible things where underlying value can be calculated.

Most cryptos are a different beast altogether.

JJJJNR

It's not over till the fat lady sings.

Even if the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are tanking it's under the holders control if they as weak hands want to sell. We are at the early stage of this corona virus and it's still to early to predict if there will be a run on the banks so belittle people all you want look at the signs they are there, mocking is catching as my mother used to say... the banking and social system is being held together with chewing gum at the moment.

FFVII

JJJJNR wrote: »

It's not over till the fat lady sings.

Even if the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are tanking it's under the holders control if they as weak hands want to sell. We are at the early stage of this corona virus and it's still to early to predict if there will be a run on the banks so belittle people all you want look at the signs they are there, mocking is catching as my mother used to say... the banking and social system is being held together with chewing gum at the moment.

What signs?

JJJJNR

Signs of a recession, 40% decline in stocks, corona virus, uncertainty.

Bob24

JJJJNR wrote: »

Signs of a recession, 40% decline in stocks, corona virus, uncertainty.

Recession is pretty much a given at this stage.

But how it will play out for BTC is very hard to predict.

cnocbui

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Shares are literally a "share" of a company, if the company performs well, the share value technically rises (they often produce dividends). Land is a scarce resource that, with the odd crisis aside, generally goes up in value over time and produces rent. Bonds is debt that produces interest payments, e.g. your high interest South American debt is higher yield but much more of a risk than your US treasuries.

These are tangible things where underlying value can be calculated.

Most cryptos are a different beast altogether.

Shares being a 'share' in the company is meaningless, as is the 'technical value'. You can not demand that someone purchase your share for it's fraction of the company's NAV or 'fair value' or any other metric. Warren Buffet is famously one of the richest men on Earth precisely because he purchased shares where the share market value was below the supposed technical value, which rather highlights what my point is - the value isn't intrinsic, it's only what someone is willing to pay you.

Under Steve Jobs, Apple shares didn't pay any dividend, even when they were minted. Holders were entirely reliant on Ponzi scheme market value - finding someone to buy them from you. Many, if not most companies are like this.

Shares that do pay a dividend are an entirely different beast and do have a value beyond the whim of the market, so I will concede you that one. But that is a potentially ephemeral value as a company can decide to stop paying dividends, as some do.

Property is a scarce resource, but it has no value beyond what someone else is prepared to pay you for it. I expect the 'value' of any property you and I own in this country is about to slide, shortly. This will be the second such event in a decade. So much for your generally goes up theory. Trust me, I wish it did. I was rather hoping to be in a position to sell my house later this year, now I doubt that will be possible without making a loss.

Value is not intrinsic, it's a figment of peoples imagination. It's illusory, as proven by the recent share market crash, and the others over the last century.

cnocbui

FFVII wrote: »

What signs?

Er, current world debt is at 350% of global GDP. It's currently about US$58.28 Trillion. The 2007 GFC happened because the debt bubble burst, and that was when global debt was 'only' US$24.46 Trillion.

The size and scale of the current debt bubble, thanks to endless quantitative easing and 'cheap' finance, is more than twice the size.

There will shortly be mass layoffs and company bankruptcies on a terrifying scale. I doubt there is a medium to large airline on the planet that won't be insolvent inside a month. I have already withdrawn cash from the bank and will do so again until I only have an operating expenses float. It wouldn't surprise me if the Cyprus crew-cut becomes a new fashion statement. Someones got to pay for all the virus consequences, and I think I know who will be put in the frame for that.

JohnnyFlash

Apple produced goods and services that people wanted to buy.

Bitcoin produces nothing only lols and grotesque amounts of CO2 emissions. It’s a terrible store of value, useless as digital currency, and offers no anonymity at all.

Stupid comparison.

cnocbui

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Apple produced goods and services that people wanted to buy.

Bitcoin produces nothing only lols and grotesque amounts of CO2 emissions.

Stupid comparison.

There is a report that claims at least 70% of bitcoin mining is done using renewables and so does not result in CO2 production. You know about Iceland Geothermal and the Hydro power in China, for example?

But leaving that non-issue aside, Do tell me what the Euro notes in my wallet or bank account 'produce'? What does a gold ingot 'produce'?

How was Cheltenham, you little virus spreader, or was that Pintman Paddy..?

JJJJNR

How much C02 does apple produce building and shipping and don't give me they're recent green credentials either when you consider they have been net producer's since the 70s.

FFVII

cnocbui wrote: »

Er, current world debt is at 350% of global GDP. It's currently about US$58.28 Trillion. The 2007 GFC happened because the debt bubble burst, and that was when global debt was 'only' US$24.46 Trillion.

The size and scale of the current debt bubble, thanks to endless quantitative easing and 'cheap' finance, is more than twice the size.

There will shortly be mass layoffs and company bankruptcies on a terrifying scale. I doubt there is a medium to large airline on the planet that won't be insolvent inside a month. I have already withdrawn cash from the bank and will do so again until I only have an operating expenses float. It wouldn't surprise me if the Cyprus crew-cut becomes a new fashion statement. Someones got to pay for all the virus consequences, and I think I know who will be put in the frame for that.

Where have all those trillions gone this time?

They doubled the debt to cover 2007...so they double it again to cover the next one....then what happens?

I don't have much, it's a rich mans worry. Unless now is when society breaks down.....then you'll just hear me saying I told ye so....while I'm down in New Zealand burning down that billionaire town they've built down there.

cnocbui

FFVII wrote: »

Where have all those trillions gone this time?

They doubled the debt to cover 2007...so they double it again to cover the next one....then what happens?

You're looking at it - or the start of 'it', anyways. The trillions, or part thereof, have gone into the pockets of the flash traders and whales who sold their shares before the crash. The rest was illusory value evaporating.

makeorbrake

cnocbui wrote: »

There is a report that claims at least 70% of bitcoin mining is done using renewables and so does not result in CO2 production. You know about Iceland Geothermal and the Hydro power in China, for example?

It's a non argument. Miners can only use the most competitively produced power and more often than that, that's renewable. Stranded power exists in abundance. Crypto miners can make use of it when nobody else can. In remote oil fields in Canada, flared off gas is now been harnessed to mine crypto. Fossil fuel power stations around the world waste boundless energy daily - having to keep those systems ticking over during off-peak times. Crypto mining can make use of this. The very same with the peaks and troughs of solar/wind, etc.

makeorbrake

Bob24 wrote: »

Recession is pretty much a given at this stage.

But how it will play out for BTC is very hard to predict.

As the QE cranks up, it will represent a great opportunity for people to examine what hard money is. When gold goes up, bitcoin will also.

Dohnjoe

cnocbui wrote: »

Shares being a 'share' in the company is meaningless, as is the 'technical value'. You can not demand that someone purchase your share for it's fraction of the company's NAV or 'fair value' or any other metric.

Share value is calculable. If a company is calculated to be worth around X, then a 100th share of that is X/100. You can literally look at their balance sheet for this.

The values of most cryptos are not calculable. They are not the same types of instruments at all.

Dohnjoe

Buffet is sitting on 125 bn of cash - now people get why. The market is currently going to safe bonds and cash.

grindle

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Share value is calculable. If a company is calculated to be worth around X, then a 100th share of that is X/100. You can literally look at their balance sheet for this.

The values of most cryptos are not calculable. They are not the same types of instruments at all.

Calculable to an extent, P/E ratios vary wildly and made no sense with Apple or Facebook for the first 5-ish years of the bullruns those companies had this century, just hopes and dreams promised for the future.

Most cryptos are abysmal shítcoins, others are oil-alikes except without a monarchy setting prices at a whim. Everybody beyond moonbois should actually want the prices to bottom out as low as they can possibly go because then we all have a good picture of what utility means to the price of [whichevercrypto]

Dohnjoe

grindle wrote: »

Calculable to an extent, P/E ratios vary wildly and made no sense with Apple or Facebook for the first 5-ish years of the bullruns those companies had this century, just hopes and dreams promised for the future.

Most cryptos are abysmal shítcoins, others are oil-alikes except without a monarchy setting prices at a whim. Everybody beyond moonbois should actually want the prices to bottom out as low as they can possibly go because then we all have a good picture of what utility means to the price of [whichevercrypto]

Indeed, same with property, 5 different estate agents won't give you the exact same estimate, but they will be within a calculable window

Crypto is completely outside that sphere. One of the only "measures" we can go on is max supply, and that's super-flaky at best.

Stewball

Lads, sorry for hijacking the thread but I got a question and this seems the busiest thread.

I set up an account with Kraken. I've being trying to get verified for an intermediate account and there was an issue with my ID and I got an email from them saying this:

Thank you for clarifying your address and for forwarding the requested images.

However we've encountered an issue which is preventing the verification of your account.

For this reason, we must ask you to provide an ID Confirmation Photo. This is a picture of you holding the same ID that you've already uploaded, along with a handwritten note which shows your signature, the current date, and a message stating “Only for trading digital currency on www.kraken.com”;.

Please upload your ID Confirmation Photo by navigating to the Get Verified page of your Kraken account and selecting the Intermediate > Get Verified button. Once complete, please reply to this email and we will help expedite your verification.

Is this the norm?
Sounds a bit strange to me.

FFVII

Stewball wrote: »

Lads, sorry for hijacking the thread but I got a question and this seems the busiest thread.

I set up an account with Kraken. I've being trying to get verified for an intermediate account and there was an issue with my ID and I got an email from them saying this:



Is this the norm?
Sounds a bit strange to me.

Must be new. Some dose in fairness.


Go to Bitstamp instead.

Vico1612

Stewball wrote: »

Lads, sorry for hijacking the thread but I got a question and this seems the busiest thread.

I set up an account with Kraken. I've being trying to get verified for an intermediate account and there was an issue with my ID and I got an email from them saying this:



Is this the norm?
Sounds a bit strange to me.

Binance used to do that so no real big surprise. It's to avoid scammers who manage to scan people's ID and use it to open fake accounts

unkel

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Bitcoin produces grotesque amounts of CO2 emissions.

It has been explained to you several times on this forum, JohnnyFlash, that this is not the case. Yet you keep coming out with that same mantra over and over again

To put it in the most diplomatic way I can - you're not building up any credibility here. Take from that what you will.

grindle

unkel wrote: »

To put it in the most diplomatic way I can - you're not building up any credibility here. Take from that what you will.

Some sadlumps out there read his crap and think it has credibility because they read nothing else and aren't willing to. He and cohorts shítpost when prices drop, visitors go "oh, must be right". That's all he needs, it's his crypto-shítpost oxygen.

Bob24

makeorbrake wrote: »

As the QE cranks up, it will represent a great opportunity for people to examine what hard money is. When gold goes up, bitcoin will also.

That’s the theory yes and I agree with it, but let’s say how it plays out in practice.

Gold only took fairly small hit in the last couple of days as traders had to sell the last strong asset they had to cover there massive losses. But it is minor and it will recover.

Bitcoin however completely tanked. This kind of broke the safe heaven argument for now.

Doesn’t mean I don’t think Bitcoin has a future, but this clearly showed that gold still is king in terms of hard money and Bitcoin still needs to prove itself.

makeorbrake

Bob24 wrote: »

That’s the theory yes and I agree with it, but let’s say how it plays out in practice.

Agreed...acid test awaits.

Bob24 wrote: »

Gold only took fairly small hit in the last couple of days as traders had to sell the last strong asset they had to cover there massive losses. But it is minor and it will recover.

It still closed 9% down over the course of the week.

Bob24 wrote: »

Bitcoin however completely tanked. This kind of broke the safe heaven argument for now.

I'm not so sure it has if we are still treating gold as a safe haven. If there's a sell off of bitcoin, its logical to me that it will run down faster than a sell off on gold.

Bob24 wrote: »

Doesn’t mean I don’t think Bitcoin has a future, but this clearly showed that gold still is king in terms of hard money and Bitcoin still needs to prove itself.

Gold was just shy of 10% down. It dropped 30% at the outset of the 2008 financial crisis. To me, it seems they're acting in the same way - just to different levels of intensity.

As regards the use of the phrase 'hard money', that's another matter. It could be that you're right insofar as bitcoin isn't a safe haven against pandemic induced firesales but that it is a hedge against FIAT-based and QE-induced inflation.

We're only at the end of the beginning here. Watch this space.

mcgucc22

Stewball wrote: »

Lads, sorry for hijacking the thread but I got a question and this seems the busiest thread.

I set up an account with Kraken. I've being trying to get verified for an intermediate account and there was an issue with my ID and I got an email from them saying this:



Is this the norm?
Sounds a bit strange to me.

It’s like that since at least 2018. I had to do it back then.

Arrival

Bob24 wrote: »

Recession is pretty much a given at this stage.

But how it will play out for BTC is very hard to predict.

Well we were hopeful people would transfer cash into BTC as a store of value to ride out any instability in the stock market but now, with the pandemic, so many people are selling to get emergency funds available as they'll need it now. There was no way anyone could've predicted this occuring at this time. I was so excited for May onwards but now it doesn't even really cross my mind as our day-to-day lives are ****ed

borderfox11

makeorbrake wrote: »

Agreed...acid test awaits.


It still closed 9% down over the course of the week.



I'm not so sure it has if we are still treating gold as a safe haven. If there's a sell off of bitcoin, its logical to me that it will run down faster than a sell off on gold.


Gold was just shy of 10% down. It dropped 30% at the outset of the 2008 financial crisis. To me, it seems they're acting in the same way - just to different levels of intensity.

As regards the use of the phrase 'hard money', that's another matter. It could be that you're right insofar as bitcoin isn't a safe haven against pandemic induced firesales but that it is a hedge against FIAT-based and QE-induced inflation.

We're only at the end of the beginning here. Watch this space.

Gold dropped in 2008/9 just as equities did, it seems to be doing the same thing again
Hearing rumours of a huge increase in demand for Physical Gold and Silver but that doesn't really tie in with last week's price drop...

Bob24

Well we now have another emergency rate cut from the Fed and the start of QE4. Let’s see it does to Bitcoin.

Lex Luthor

JJJJNR wrote: »

It's not over till the fat lady sings.

Even if the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are tanking it's under the holders control if they as weak hands want to sell. We are at the early stage of this corona virus and it's still to early to predict if there will be a run on the banks so belittle people all you want look at the signs they are there, mocking is catching as my mother used to say... the banking and social system is being held together with chewing gum at the moment.

What he said

Lex Luthor

Stewball wrote: »

Lads, sorry for hijacking the thread but I got a question and this seems the busiest thread.

I set up an account with Kraken. I've being trying to get verified for an intermediate account and there was an issue with my ID and I got an email from them saying this:



Is this the norm?
Sounds a bit strange to me.

Was you photo Id clear enough?

rapul

Some good prices to be buying now, wonder how much lower, been holding off for a while now! And I had to do that with binance when signing up aswell the photo id and piece of paper and all

machiavellianme

Sub 100 euro ETH.
My portfolio is now less than 1/3 of what I paid in.
No point selling now but I certainly can't justify buying.
If crypto is going to swing harder than all other stocks etc at every time there's trouble it has no purpose other than casual gambling.

Bob24

rapul wrote: »

Some good prices to be buying now, wonder how much lower, been holding off for a while now! And I had to do that with binance when signing up aswell the photo id and piece of paper and all

Just keep in mind what they say about falling knives. Crypto seems to be aggressively sold with the stock market at the moment and it is exacerbated but its natural volatility.

Bob24

machiavellianme wrote: »

Sub 100 euro ETH.
My portfolio is now less than 1/3 of what I paid in.
No point selling now but I certainly can't justify buying.
If crypto is going to swing harder than all other stocks etc at every time there's trouble it has no purpose other than casual gambling.

Yeah my view for someone who is already relatively heavily into crypto would be to keep tight and wait.

Someone who has little to no involvement and was waiting to join in can start doing it gradually.

jimmii

machiavellianme wrote: »

Sub 100 euro ETH.
My portfolio is now less than 1/3 of what I paid in.
No point selling now but I certainly can't justify buying.
If crypto is going to swing harder than all other stocks etc at every time there's trouble it has no purpose other than casual gambling.

Ouch that's harsh. I'm sure the vast majority here are hoping you're able to get out of that hole.

borderfox11

around the December low would be tempting to start loading up again

Stewball

Lex Luthor wrote: »

Was you photo Id clear enough?

I think so. They didn't say there was an issue with the other documents I submitted.

makeorbrake

machiavellianme wrote: »

Sub 100 euro ETH.
My portfolio is now less than 1/3 of what I paid in.
No point selling now but I certainly can't justify buying.
If crypto is going to swing harder than all other stocks etc at every time there's trouble it has no purpose other than casual gambling.

Everything is down - including the 4,000 year old 'safe haven', gold. Crypto is developmental and crypto is volatile - with tiny market caps that can be very easily shaken.

If you believe in the fundamentals of said cryptocurrency, then hold tight.

kingbhome

How can I buy into cryptocurrency at the moment. Have a few pond to spare and think this is an ideal time to buy into it. Only about 5-10k but I think it's Worth a gamble. It's something I don't mind gambling on if it turns out 20 years from now it was a wise investment

makeorbrake

kingbhome wrote: »

How can I buy into cryptocurrency at the moment. Have a few pond to spare and think this is an ideal time to buy into it. Only about 5-10k but I think it's Worth a gamble. It's something I don't mind gambling on if it turns out 20 years from now it was a wise investment

Open up an account with Kraken, Bitstamp or Coinbase Pro.

Bob24

makeorbrake wrote: »

Everything is down - including the 4,000 year old 'safe haven', gold. Crypto is developmental and crypto is volatile - with tiny market caps that can be very easily shaken.

If you believe in the fundamentals of said cryptocurrency, then hold tight.

Gold is back to its December level (after peaking recently) and the drop is nothing like what stocks and crypto have experienced - so most people holding gold would not be under any stress at the moment.

Of course in times like this every liquid asset gets sold to raise cash and cover positions and gold is affected as well as we are seeing now.

So I don't think quotation marks are required when calling gold a safe heaven. It still is the preforming *much* better that stocks, crypto, oil, etc ... and as soon as the panic sell-off stage stops, it will easily recover and go to all times highs as with previous crisis (especially since we will clearly have a debt and solvency crisis which will make many people advert to counter-party risk, which for sure will push-up gold and should in theory also be good for bitcoin). We will see what happens with bitcoin - it might spike up again but the degree of certainty is lower than for gold.

But yes at this stage I think someone who is holding crypto should sit tight. Volatility will be crazy and it is hard t predict which ways prices are going, but while it can go much lower, selling it is also risky in case there is a strong rebound.

SAM SO NITE

makeorbrake wrote: »

Open up an account with Kraken, Bitstamp or Coinbase Pro.

Why coin base pro over the normal coin base (which I have)

makeorbrake

Bob24 wrote: »

Gold is back to its December level (after peaking recently) and the drop is nothing like what stocks and crypto have experienced - so most people holding gold would not be under any stress at the moment.

The bottom line is that it's down. If you bought enough of it at peak, then it could be argued that you would be under stress.

Bob24 wrote: »

Of course in times like this every liquid asset gets sold to raise cash and cover positions and gold is affected as well as we are seeing now.

So effectively, taking this trading/economic/pandemic phase in isolation, there is no safe haven asset.

Bob24 wrote: »

So I don't think quotation marks are required when calling gold a safe heaven. It still is the preforming *much* better that stocks, crypto, oil, etc .

See above. During this particular phase, it's not a fully qualified safe haven. It can't be if its losing value, can it?
As regards it performing much better than the rest - all day long.

Bob24 wrote: »

and as soon as the panic sell-off stage stops, it will easily recover and go to all times highs as with previous crisis (especially since we will clearly have a debt and solvency crisis which will make many people advert to counter-party risk, which for sure will push-up gold and should in theory also be good for bitcoin). We will see what happens with bitcoin - it might spike up again but the degree of certainty is lower than for gold.

Gold *should* spike up again - and I guess we come to that conclusion from its past track record. It makes perfect sense that we are not as sure footed with bitcoin. It has many of the attributes of gold and hard money - so it *should*. This is what we all expect of it - but it's never been in these economic conditions before, it's a volatile asset and it's in a developmental phase with a tiny market cap by comparison with golds 7 trillion. It *should* and if it doesn't then we'd have to re-assess what bitcoin actually is.

Bob24 wrote: »

But yes at this stage I think someone who is holding crypto should sit tight. Volatility will be crazy and it is hard t predict which ways prices are going, but while it can go much lower, selling it is also risky in case there is a strong rebound.

I think things will get much worse - and if they do - I'll be buying. Interesting times...lets see how this one pans out.

makeorbrake

SAM SO NITE wrote: »

Why coin base pro over the normal coin base (which I have)

They take a much lower commission on Pro vs. a regular Coinbase account.

sabat

kingbhome wrote: »

How can I buy into cryptocurrency at the moment. Have a few pond to spare and think this is an ideal time to buy into it. Only about 5-10k but I think it's Worth a gamble. It's something I don't mind gambling on if it turns out 20 years from now it was a wise investment

For the love of Christ man hold on to your cash; in 6 months you might need it to buy food.