How full is a Ryanair flight?

naughtysmurf

I'm tracking the price of a Ryanair flight in July for five people, think the price is currently a bit high & hoping it will drop.

If I do a dummy booking, when I get to seat selection, there is still plenty available to choose, approximately 80 to 90.

Does this mean there are actually 80 seats still available on the flight or less because a number of passengers are happy not to pay for a seat & have one assigned for free shortly before travel?

Priority is also still available but limited

Thanks

Padraig Mor

No, there will be XX people who will only get a seat assigned at checking from 48 hours beforehand. For many flights, this will be a majority of those on board. Looking at your details, I suspect you're looking at a flight to a holiday destination - in my experience, these are far more likely to have people booking seats in advance - families etc. I'd also imagine you'd be pretty lucky to see a significant reduction in price to a holiday destination (if that's the case) between now and July.

rubberdungeon

You could have a look and see what https://www.airhint.com/ says, I don’t know how reliable it is.

GreeBo

Flights are at their cheapest 320 days out and 2 days out, anything in the middle is a bit of a lottery.

Seatmaps are not a good indication of availability for the reasons mentioned above.

Use somewhere like https://www.airhint.com/ to tell you when to book based on historical prices.

GreeBo

rubberdungeon wrote: »

You could have a look and see what https://www.airhint.com/ says, I don’t know how reliable it is.

El snapo!

naughtysmurf

I am tracking it on airhint, it suggests waiting, I have the outbound flight booked, it's just the return flight I'm waiting for to hopefully drop a bit, as it is a holiday destination in July & a 4 hour flight,so mainly couples & families I'm also thinking that the majority will book seats so the seat map I'm thinking is reasonably accurate

fdevine

It's a lottery. Aithint is useful but only as a guide.

On some flights I've watched the price drops once a week and goes back up a couple of days later or one leg of the journey will reduce while the other one goes up.

If, as in this case, it's a peak season flight to or from a holiday destination it's all down to a bit of luck.

Vic_08

naughtysmurf wrote: »

I am tracking it on airhint, it suggests waiting, I have the outbound flight booked, it's just the return flight I'm waiting for to hopefully drop a bit, as it is a holiday destination in July & a 4 hour flight,so mainly couples & families I'm also thinking that the majority will book seats so the seat map I'm thinking is reasonably accurate

What contingency do you have if the flight gets booked out?

grimm2005

For a sun holiday in July I'd say you'd be very lucky to see it drop much if at all, more likely to rise I'd say. I find the best time to buy a flight is 6 - 8 weeks before a flight as prices fluctuate so much and this tends to be the sweet spot (but again, not an exact science). In your case, I'd probably just bite the bullet due to destination and time of year.

naughtysmurf

Vic_08 wrote: »

What contingency do you have if the flight gets booked out?

None LOL, I'll be in the dog house but if the worst happened we'd only be down the outbound flight cost <600, everything else was pay on arrival & or free cancellation

naughtysmurf

grimm2005 wrote: »

For a sun holiday in July I'd say you'd be very lucky to see it drop much if at all, more likely to rise I'd say. I find the best time to buy a flight is 6 - 8 weeks before a flight as prices fluctuate so much and this tends to be the sweet spot (but again, not an exact science). In your case, I'd probably just bite the bullet due to destination and time of year.

Not at the 8 week mark yet, still 14 weeks out

spurious

Unless you are expecting substantial savings, I wouldn't chance it.

only half the passengers can take two bags on board, so if this option is still available, then in theory the flight is only half booked.

bit of a hit and hope way of booking, but worth a shot.

naughtysmurf

Looking at the flight alert emails, back in March our outbound flights would have cost 960, currently they are 577, that's 5 people with family plus so priority, seats 5x10kg in cabin & 2x20kg in the hold,

At the same time the return flights were +1200, they are currently 960 so if I had booked both legs in March I would have paid 640 more than if I booked today, it's just an observation

Also for those using airhint, it takes a few hours for the alert email to come through after the price actually falls or rises

CelticRambler

GreeBo wrote: »

Flights are at their cheapest 320 days out and 2 days out, anything in the middle is a bit of a lottery.

That's a bit of a weird statement! Considering Ryanair often don't have their flight schedules loaded until six months (180 days) before they fly, it'd be hard to book nearly a year ahead! :P And I have never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever seen a Ryanair flight cheaper two days before departure compared to one week or two weeks before.

@naughtysmurf: what can help is looking at the prices for the days just before and after. For the most part, all the seats for all days in the month are initially loaded at the same price (except for key dates, like the first/last weekend of the holidays) with a set number of seats available at that price, then another batch available at a higher price, then yet another lot higher again. You can get a feel for where these thresholds are by scanning the different days (and, of course, the "only 2 seats left at this price" tag). If there's a difference of several tens of euros, the expensive flight is almost certainly getting pretty full and it's very unlikely the price will drop.

If you've been watching the prices for a while, you'll already have a feel for whether or not the flight is filling up, but contrary to what GreeBo says, Ryanair prices tend to be at their most competitive at around 8-12 weeks before departure. This is when they'll run a flash sale to fill up empty seats, but you need to track the prices directly on their website/app. The third-party trackers are too laggy. Seat maps are completely unreliable. My last Ryanair flight showed about 15 seats booked when I checked in and it was almost completely full! :pac:

otnomart

Have you tried to search for tickets for (say) 15 or 20 people ? the website will tell you if they are still available or if it is full.

naughtysmurf

otnomart wrote: »

Have you tried to search for tickets for (say) 15 or 20 people ? the website will tell you if they are still available or if it is full.

No I haven't, today though the cost fell further, the 577 outbound is now 475 & inbound fell from 960 to 843, 5 people family plus

CelticRambler

For the fun of it, try booking one person on the inbound leg and see if it's the same price. You might be able to get a couple of seats that little bit cheaper - enough to justify a checked bag or two.