Dublin - Metrolink (Swords to Charlemont only)

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121327407#Comment_121327407

I couldn’t tell ya 100% as I don’t have a crystal ball.

All I know is ABP needs to be beefed us massively if we are to build large amounts of needed infrastructure in this country.

Podge_irl

The bill won't impact Metrolink at all, but could do so for future projects.

ABP is also being beefed up. These things are all happening but they take time.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121327909#Comment_121327909

Yup, 50 of 93 new positions filled.

Would be better if it was 200 and they were advertised years ago, but it is what it is

gjim

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121326837#Comment_121326837

So according to the Sunday Business Post, Metro North is under threat? Hmmm...

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121329684#Comment_121329684

Yeah, can't say I give much thought to their analysis when they start with that whopper...

also apparently "Dart" is under threat. Someone should tell them it's been built a while. I know this could be argued as semantics, but its just unforgivably sloppy.

Ronald Binge Redux

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121329684#Comment_121329684

The SBP has form having a go at rail projects.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2054898578/first-luas-now-the-sunday-business-post-goes-to-war-on-the-metro

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121325825#Comment_121325825

Irelands population is set to peak at around 6 million and then begin to decline at sometime between 2045 and 2050. So if the population is declining and there are other economic factors such as the dispersion of offices from the congested City Centre to the Transitional/Tertiary city zones of the city. (Note: the Commercial Property crash is on the horizon) Then this type of transport might not be economically feasible.

Dublin city centre is kind of a kip at the moment. It wouldn't be somewhere I'd be bringing my family to. the Only reason I got to the City centre is for work. If I didn't need to work there, I wouldn't go in there. (as is the case for the great many others).

I do think the Metro will be built, but it will be completed late, costs will run over, and they wont build another one.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121327009#Comment_121327009

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121327029#Comment_121327029

There was an infra guy on Newstalk there about 3 or 4 weeks ago. He discussing this big infra projects and the delays that happened and the poor decisions made at the time. And the economic/social costs we're now facing as a result.

During the crash and when the IMF showed up, Leo Varadkar had to make a decision on one of three projects Luas Extension, Dart Interconnector between Heuston and Connolly or the Metro.

Luas was chose because is was the cheapest. The Dart interconnector has now been permanently canned as far as I can see, yet it's clear that it is the most vital piece of Rail Infra we need, as it effectively links all the heavy rail systems (I know about the tunnel under the park, that's not fit for purpose). It would be considerably cheaper than metro and would provide far more bang for buck.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121330895#Comment_121330895

Is this true? We're 5.3 million now. We could be 6 million in 10 years easily.

Our city centre is thriving despite the bad headlines. Loads of new hotels, restaurants etc

The population of Dublin between the canals is rising every year.

One big factor in the Metrolink is to open up development land for housing.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121330976#Comment_121330976

This was some think tank thing I read in the paper a few years back (Very sensationalized mind you) but its based off this for pensions:

https://assets.gov.ie/200482/f1479eed-f28b-427a-ad01-e557ac4cc923.pdf

Remember... we have an aging workforce, not enough babies are being born it would seem.

Edit: working age population will decline.

By 2050, the working age population as a proportion of the total population has declined, while the number and proportion of older people continues to increase.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121330989#Comment_121330989

It doesn't seem accurate.

One of their figures projects our population at 5.3 or 5.4 million in 2030.

In April this year our pop was 5.28m, so I assume it's at least 5.3m now.

Before the Ukraine war, our population was rising 60,000 a year I think.

If our economy remains stable and we get a grip on housing, this figure will increase a little.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121331018#Comment_121331018

we're going way off topic 😃

But if you look here you'll see a population pyramid for Ireland. (Except it's not a pyramid, and that's the problem)

https://www.populationpyramid.net/ireland/2021/

That indentation from 40-44 downward is a big problem 5-9 year old is also extremely concerning as us looked like the trend reversed for 10-14

No one's gonna build multiple metros when most of the population isn't even working 😅

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121331054#Comment_121331054

10-14 are the children of the "Pope's Children" as David McWilliams called them i.e. the children born during the high birthrates of the 70s and 80s, but didn't emigrate cos of the Celtic Tiger.

That's the peak at 40-44. The Pope came in '79 hence you'll meet lots of lads in their early 40s named John Paul.

Our birthrate is below replacement level but isn't too concerning. Look at Italy's demographics if you want a shock.

I think we need at least two Metro lines.

It's not that expensive. 10 billion over 10 years isn't much.

Sam Russell

One thing about Metros is that they do not need drivers - so that might help counteract the lack of workers. They are also very efficient at moving people.

loco_scolo

Population projections for Ireland have been wrong time and time again. We are now the only English speaking country in the EU. That will bolster immigration which will allow the population to continue growing. And natural birth rates here are already the highest in the EU.

There are so many young Irish living abroad, and history shows these people tend to return to Ireland at some point, likely when they are ready for children and want to be close to family.

Just as one example, the population of young Brazilian students and workers here is huge. I have a lot of Brazilian friends and previous house mates, and the vast majority love Ireland and want to stay here and start having children.

Any consideration of not building Metro, based on 2050 population forecast is nonsensical. The city is choking and needs serious investment.

loco_scolo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121331081#Comment_121331081

Yes, and €10billion (even €15-20Billion) over 50 years operation is absolutely nothing. Clearly the city can't rely on buses for mass transport.

The day a shovel is in the ground can't come quick enough, so we can stop entertaining these ridiculous arguments.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121331154#Comment_121331154

We can take in immigrants as we need them also.

Lots of conflict, climate change to come.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121331081#Comment_121331081

As I said I think the first one will defo get built, I don't think the second one will.

€10b over 10 years isn't much when there's a surplus, if there is a deficit, then it's an incredible amount.

Every Tom, Dick and Harry knows we're gonna be facing a massive pension issue over the next 20 years. Half of working adults have neglected or don't have a company pension plus we're going to have more pensioners than working people. Infra is gonna take a back seat when it comes to pensions. Pensioners represent a huge portion of the electoral vote.

If there are any more significant delays to Metro, it won't get built because of the above, which is why they need start it ASAP. (Imho)

loco_scolo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121331514#Comment_121331514

The entire €10billion, or whatever final cost, doesn't need to be taken from tax revenue. It can, and will, be funded through debt in bond markets, and will effectively be paid back over decades.

Without intending to be patronising, we live in a capitalist system. As long as economic growth is sufficient to service debt (pay interest), and total debt stays within certain limits, the economy continues to function.

Think of it as refinancing your mortgage every 20 years without ever paying it back. Provided the underlying asset (the economy or a house) maintains value and you earn enough money to pay the interest (tax revenue), you can in theory refinance your debt forever.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121331514#Comment_121331514

€10b over 10 years isn't much when there's a surplus, if there is a deficit, then it's an incredible amount.

Not really. It entirely depends on the bond levels.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121330989#Comment_121330989

Immigration over the last three years alone will have changed those projections.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121332847#Comment_121332847

Fully agree with you!

There is no way to tell, but just as many IT workers and refugees arrived, they could all leave just as fast. Hard to know.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121332572#Comment_121332572

I'd agree to an extent. It could be politically unsavory though if we're in trouble economically at the time with regard to an old population.

I suppose it comes down to the old saying: "Best time to build infrastructure is yesterday"... IE start now.

bk

Just to be clear the projected 6 million population by 2050 is Ireland alone, not including Northern Ireland.

The island of Ireland is projected to be heading to 10 million people by 2050 and the GDA having more then 2 million alone.

The study, conducted by the International Data Base at the US Census Bureau, predicts that Ireland's population will rise by 33% by 2050, the second-highest projected increase of all European nations.

The study, which predicts population changes between 2017 and 2050, predicts that Ireland's population will jump from 4.76 million in 2017 to 6.33 million in 2050, a rise of 33.04%.

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/ireland-population-6-million-2050

It is laughable to look at those numbers and to take them to mean Ireland population growth is slowing and we don't need Metrolink!

Consonata

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121330932#Comment_121330932

Dart Interconnecter arguably has the weakest business case of those three in terms of bang for buck. It would be several orders more expensive per km than the other two with the addition of only 2 new stations to the network. Widening PPT would have more benefits arguably in comparison.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121332958#Comment_121332958

Heading to 10 million? NI population is still under 2M isn't it? Seems unlikely it would increase enough to bring the island anywhere close to 10 if Ireland is only going to be 6. something

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121333046#Comment_121333046

I'd wouldn't agree or disagree, without knowing more about the type of people traffic that comes from Heuston direction towards the Business Offices areas of the City (anywhere East of Portabello on the south side and IFSC eastwards on North side).

To me it makes sense and also open up an opportunity to get freight trains on to the south container depot.

I know freight on rail is pipe dream in Ireland.... But still... 😂

bk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121333148#Comment_121333148

Christ, no, a terrible idea! Really when do we start doing crazy stuff like this. Any Dart tunnel needs to be just Darts, fast, frequent, high capacity.

Heading to 10 million? NI population is still under 2M isn't it? Seems unlikely it would increase enough to bring the island anywhere close to 10 if Ireland is only going to be 6. something

Yeah you are probably right

NI is 1.9 million in 2020.

The Irish prediction is actually 6.33m by 2050. If NI saw the same growth, you’d be looking at about 8.5 million total.

Though worth noting past predictions have been massively underestimated.

Anyway if we are talking about Metro lines in Dublin then the important figure is really the population of Dublin and the GDA.

A reminder, Masterdam has the same population as Dublin, it has 5 metro lines and 15 tram lines. It is really unusual for even a mid sized European capital city to be so dependent on buses.

KrisW1001

Amsterdam is one city in a large conurbation whose population is higher than Ireland's.

Copenhagen would be a more apt comparison, and your point would still stand.

bk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121334839#Comment_121334839

Yep, Copenhagen has 4 metro lines, 18 tram lines and 7 S-train (DART) lines. So even worse!

loco_scolo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121335291#Comment_121335291

While I fully acknowledge Copenhagen is way ahead of Dublin, that's a misleading and unfair comparison to make. Assuming we can build the Metro and Dart+, we won't be too far behind Copenhagen. Unfortunately, we basically lost 15years of progress because of the crash.

Metro:

Copenhagen's metro network is 38km long, with 39 stations and 107million annual ridership. Noting the lines share large sections of a core network to form several lines. The 15km long M3 circle line, with 17 underground stations, opened only recently in 2019.

Dublin's planned Metro will be 19km long, with 16 stations and is expected to carry 48million passengers annually. If the Metro is extended to Sandyford, it will be almost as long as Copenhagen's entire network (at 33km long) and would likely carry 80million+ annually.

S-train / Dart:

Copenhagen's S-train system is 170km long, with 86 stations and 120million annual ridership. 6 of the 7 lines share a central core with 3 branches at each end. It's not 7 distinct lines, basically 2 with several branches.

Dublin's current Dart network is 53km long, with 31 stations and 20million annual ridership. Commuter rail carries an additional 15million annually. Upon completion of Dart+, the network will be 150km long, with more than 60 stations. Not sure of expected ridership, but capacity will be doubled on most sections, trebled on Dart+West and quadrupled on Dart+ SW.

And Dublin's current Luas system is 42km long, with 67 stations and 50million annual ridership.

Conclusion: Copenhagen is way ahead of Dublin, but it won't take much to for Dublin to catch up. If we can also finish Bus Connects and associated infrastructure, the city will be doing very well.