Dublin - Metrolink (Swords to Charlemont only)

marno21

Idbatterim wrote: »

if we have a recession, its the perfect time to build it, avail of cheaper tender prices and keep thousands of skilled people in the country! they can ditch the off the wall NBP...

Covid-19 if anything has strengthened the need for the NBP given the volume of people working from home.

It would be useful to retain Metrolink as a stimulus measure if there’s a downturn given the limited scope for monetary measures

Thelonious Monk

The NBP might encourage more one off housing and car based lifestyles would be my worry

spacetweek

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

The NBP might encourage more one off housing and car based lifestyles would be my worry

It would, but that's a fact of life in Ireland, and unlikely to change. Might need instead to develop technology that lessens the negative impacts of this lifestyle rather than hoping it'll go away.

end of the road

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

I can still see the transport unions kicking up a stink about it. Hopefully, they are ignored though.

it's a new line built from scratch.
the existing transport unions won't care as it won't effect existing members, and there will be the potential for new members from other grades.

Idbatterim wrote: »

they dont give a toss about anything other than existing customers (their members) I think that is beyond blatant!

The outrageous luas strikes a few years back, likely cemented this being automated, thank god!

this was always going to be automated.
even if there had never been a transport strike in the history of the state, this would be the case.

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

It'll give them no power over a brand new rail system. Also, it is a loss of potential new customers for them. They will definitely not be happy about it being a driverless system. Sure didn't the unions in the UK kick up a stink when driverless systems were introduced there.

I'm not saying they will be successful it getting rid of it but they will kick up a stink over it being driverless.

there will be other workers, maintenence workers, cleaners, security, so there will be new members if the transport unions want to represent them.

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-19741282



Do you not think the NBRU will be thinking the same here?

the tube wouldn't be comparable to metrolink as it is an already existing operation with drivers, whereas metrolink would be fully automated from scratch.
the tube already has quite a degree of automation as it is i believe, however i suspect, actual full automation with nobody on board is probably a bit off yet.

Idbatterim wrote: »

I wonder what the outcome of that was? look, they just need to be faced down, people have near zero sympathy for them. they wont have public support, the luas strikes did nothing but highlight, how overpaid they already were. This is a mountain being made into a molehill. The unions havent even mentioned this an issue and frankly I and I doubt the collossal majority, couldnt care less if they do. they are the primary driver of change to driverless for god sake!

the unions have nothing to do with the change to driverless, driverless/automation would happen regardless of whether unions exist or not, because removing staff saves money and cuts costs.
driverless/automation has been around over 40 or even 50 years, it's not a new concept, there will only be issues where it is implemented on operations with already existing drivers, and that can be handled sensibly by natural wastage and re-deployment for some where opportunities exist.
but we are way off that in reality i would expect, unless we implement serious investment to completely segregate those operations from anything and everything.

marno21

Tender out for client support services for MetroLink

https://irl.eu-supply.com/ctm/Supplier/PublicPurchase/164570/0/0?returnUrl=ctm/Supplier/publictenders&b=ETENDERS_SIMPLE

Kevtherev1

What do people think here. Metrolink preparation continues, planning permission due to be lodged in 2021. When do we think construction will begin or be delayed to now.


Heading into a sharp depression with reduced tax revenue, is there a chance now the project could be shelved for another 5 or 6 years (Delay in construction). No chance project will start in 2021 at this stage.

L1011

This is the kind of project the ECB will be printing money for to generate economic activity most likely.

Grandeeod

L1011 wrote: »

This is the kind of project the ECB will be printing money for to generate economic activity most likely.

They offered backing to Metro North over 10 years ago and we still didn't do it.

MJohnston

Grandeeod wrote: »

They offered backing to Metro North over 10 years ago and we still didn't do it.

Aye because everyone back then was obsessed with the idea of austerity. Pretty sure that nearly everyone in the world agrees that austerity was a failed approach. I'd be very surprised to see the same approach taken this time around. The ECB certainly are making plenty of noises that would indicate the opposite approach.

Grandeeod

MJohnston wrote: »

Aye because everyone back then was obsessed with the idea of austerity. Pretty sure that nearly everyone in the world agrees that austerity was a failed approach. I'd be very surprised to see the same approach taken this time around. The ECB certainly are making plenty of noises that would indicate the opposite approach.

We'll see. None of us predicted this one. And because you are such a moan fest about my posts, can I just say that I would absolutely love to see a metro in Dublin far beyond just a single line. I'd love to see the original DU built too. I'd have loved to seen it all done by 2015 as per the oul T21 plan. I love your positive nature, but I don't like your dismissal of my doubts that you try to portray as some kind of doomfest for the sake of it. We're on the same page, but simply different chapters.

MJohnston

Yeah, no thanks.

cgcsb

I'm actually more optimistic about metro happening since the crisis hit. Ireland and the EU will be looking at a sharp ramp up of stimulus measures I'd say this is high on the list. I was convinced it wouldn't happen only a few weeks ago and now nearly positive it will. 2027 is unlikely though. You're talking 2030 opening if even

Sam Russell

cgcsb wrote: »

I'm actually more optimistic about metro happening since the crisis hit. Ireland and the EU will be looking at a sharp ramp up of stimulus measures I'd say this is high on the list. I was convinced it wouldn't happen only a few weeks ago and now nearly positive it will. 2027 is unlikely though. You're talking 2030 opening if even

I would think the new Gov would like to see it nearing completion within their term - so much tunnelling going on, and perhaps the Swords to Airport opening first.

Perhaps even DU plans being dusted down. These are easy wins for the FF/FG parties.

Marcusm

L1011 wrote: »

This is the kind of project the ECB will be printing money for to generate economic activity most likely.

Especially as it will support more than one member state, Ireland and wherever the TBM and rolling stock are manufactured!

L1011

Marcusm wrote: »

Especially as it will support more than one member state, Ireland and wherever the TBM and rolling stock are manufactured!

Quite possibly Germany and Germany, which will delight the ECB.

D.L.R.

Don't think its unreasonable to have huge doubts about this country's ability to deliver the metro, especially now. It was uncertain even before this chaos.

I'm fully expecting the next govt to do another wishy washy review. All funds will be diverted to fire fighting the economic sh*tstorm heading our way.

Idbatterim

the ECB are going to lend at negative rates it is expected, they need to continue on with this, IF it is to be parked again, forget some bull**** metro north redesign and all that farce. Putting it on ice is one thing, and I dont think they should, I think we should spend on infrastructure, keep skilled people here instead of emigrating etc... use it as a stimulus...

Grandeeod

D.L.R. wrote: »

Don't think its unreasonable to have huge doubts about this country's ability to deliver the metro, especially now. It was uncertain even before this chaos.

I'm fully expecting the next govt to do another wishy washy review. All funds will be diverted to fire fighting the economic sh*tstorm heading our way.

I agree. But that talk isn't liked in these parts. I so want to see these kind of projects delivered, but doubting it is treated by some posters as a personal attack.

Idbatterim wrote: »

the ECB are going to lend at negative rates it is expected, they need to continue on with this, IF it is to be parked again, forget some bull**** metro north redesign and all that farce. Putting it on ice is one thing, and I dont think they should, I think we should spend on infrastructure, keep skilled people here instead of emigrating etc... use it as a stimulus...

In fairness that's the same argument that was used 10 years ago and lead to nothing as it wasn't entertained. It doesn't even matter what causes the recession. Irish Government react the same way. We'll borrow vast amounts to prop up the day to day running of the state. Expect it to be put on ice and then a redesign. The same thing I predicted here years ago.

If I'm wrong, I'll be the first to hold my hands up and that's not the first time I've said that.

D.L.R.

I was cautiously optimistic before the coronavirus. Now I'm doubtful. Depends on the shape of the next govt to an extent, in terms of its Dublin/rural balance. If its more rural in character, forget metro. It'll be more mohorweh and suspension bridges down the country.

MJohnston

What does the government actually have to do for Metrolink at this point though? I’m sure there will be budgetary votes, but they’ll get enough cross party support for that without needing rural TDs. Other than that, it’s a project in motion, so they’d have to actively interrupt its process.

D.L.R.

MJohnston wrote: »

What does the government actually have to do for Metrolink at this point though? I’m sure there will be budgetary votes, but they’ll get enough cross party support for that without needing rural TDs. Other than that, it’s a project in motion, so they’d have to actively interrupt its process.

Its not in motion. Only some preliminary works have happened. No major construction contracts have been signed.

CatInABox

D.L.R. wrote: »

Its not in motion. Only some preliminary works have happened. No major construction contracts have been signed.

It depends on your definition of in motion, I suppose. The government (or lack thereof) isn't going to suddenly turn around and announce that the project has been cancelled, because it doesn't actually cost anything right now. I'm sure they're still paying the NTA and TII, along with various contractors for design works, but that's a pittance in the grand scheme of things.

I believe the next milestone in which the government has to get involved in is after an update to the Cost Benefit Analysis, which, if I remember correctly, will be just before they apply to ABP for the railway order.

In the meantime, work on Metrolink continues. Contracts for construction might not be signed yet, but the contracts for design work are still being fulfilled as we speak.

So, all in all, I'd say it's still in motion.

D.L.R.

CatInABox wrote: »

It depends on your definition of in motion, I suppose. The government (or lack thereof) isn't going to suddenly turn around and announce that the project has been cancelled, because it doesn't actually cost anything right now. I'm sure they're still paying the NTA and TII, along with various contractors for design works, but that's a pittance in the grand scheme of things.

I believe the next milestone in which the government has to get involved in is after an update to the Cost Benefit Analysis, which, if I remember correctly, will be just before they apply to ABP for the railway order.

In the meantime, work on Metrolink continues. Contracts for construction might not be signed yet, but the contracts for design work are still being fulfilled as we speak.

So, all in all, I'd say it's still in motion.

That "motion" can easily be halted or slowed to a crawl so long as major construction contracts are not yet signed.

MJohnston

D.L.R. wrote: »

That "motion" can easily be halted or slowed to a crawl so long as major construction contracts are not yet signed.

Yes but if it is going to be halted, it’ll be because the government is choosing a path of austerity, not because of a few rural TDs. This is what we’re discussing.

D.L.R.

MJohnston wrote: »

Yes but if it is going to be halted, it’ll be because the government is choosing a path of austerity, not because of a few rural TDs. This is what we’re discussing.

The state hasn't signed any major construction contract. I'll believe we're building a metro when I see a TBM.

CatInABox

D.L.R. wrote: »

The state hasn't signed any major construction contract. I'll believe we're building a metro when I see a TBM.

Yes, we know. Our point is that you can't just sign a contract without knowing exactly what you're going to build.

They've signed contracts for design works, which is currently on going.
Once they've finished the design, then they can apply for planning permission.
Once they have planning permission, they will go to the government of the day, and lay out the costings. The government, at this time, can make a go/no go decision on the project.
If given the go ahead, they'll put out a tender, and based on the results of that tender, then they'll sign the contracts.


All of this is "motion". Sure, it's behind the scenes motion, but you can't seriously have thought that you could build a metro without planning everything out first?

Yellow_Fern

Idbatterim wrote: »

the ECB are going to lend at negative rates it is expected, they need to continue on with this, IF it is to be parked again, forget some bull**** metro north redesign and all that farce. Putting it on ice is one thing, and I dont think they should, I think we should spend on infrastructure, keep skilled people here instead of emigrating etc... use it as a stimulus...

Stimuluses dont work. They really don't. It is a myth. What works is making countries more productive. MetroLink would have ability to make Dublin a more productive place and I agree they should make every effort to get it done.

D.L.R.

CatInABox wrote: »

Yes, we know. Our point is that you can't just sign a contract without knowing exactly what you're going to build.

They've signed contracts for design works, which is currently on going.
Once they've finished the design, then they can apply for planning permission.
Once they have planning permission, they will go to the government of the day, and lay out the costings. The government, at this time, can make a go/no go decision on the project.
If given the go ahead, they'll put out a tender, and based on the results of that tender, then they'll sign the contracts.

Exactly, the govt can still say go/no go.

It all comes down to whether the state will commit major funding and I can't see that any time soon. The current timetable for metro is now worth little more than toilet paper. In a few weeks it may become actual toilet paper.

Podge_irl

D.L.R. wrote: »

Exactly, the govt can still say go/no go.

It all comes down to whether the state will commit major funding and I can't see that any time soon. The current timetable for metro is now worth little more than toilet paper. In a few weeks it may become actual toilet paper.

And thus the point still stands that they would need to actively disrupt and cancel the already in motion plans. There is obviously precedent for that, so its not like it can't happen, but it is not something that can, at this stage, be quietly dropped.

Muahahaha

MJohnston wrote: »

Yes but if it is going to be halted, it’ll be because the government is choosing a path of austerity, not because of a few rural TDs. This is what we’re discussing.

Could also be halted because Fianna Fail dont want it to happen and FG are about to go into coalition with them. FG might want the Metro to go ahead but is it a red line for them? Im not so sure it is. On top of that the Greeens seem to be swerving going into Govt meaning about 12 Independent TDs are needed. Lots of them are going to be rural and against 'Dublin getting everything'....

We could end up being 15 billion in the red by the time this crises is over. A 5 billion Metro for Dublin could be a very hard sell in the grander scheme of things.