Werewolf: HBO's Deadwood

Desmond WW · 16-04-2019 2:15pm

Phil WW wrote: »

If all five are up for it, I think we stick to the same five again, right? But switch the order around a bit?

While I like Desmond's plan, I worry it's SO complicated that its going to leave us wide open to a mistake.

Yeh, with the win its gonna be harder for wolves to work around this if one of their mates is in the 1-4 list. Im guessing they will target Gertie tomorrow so if BG is listening, keep that in your back pocket. There is also a potential beating/protection to be handed out by one of the baddies.

Gertie has until 6.30 to decide a target to block powers.

Mary WW · 16-04-2019 2:16pm

Desmond WW wrote: »

Thats exactly it:

#1 Gertie
#2 Phil
#3 Steve
#4 Holly
#5 Desmond

Any deviation from the wolves means they are protecting somebody. They cant really play around with because it clears other villagers?

Am i missing something ? So we need Gertie here to vote and to confirm power.

Biggest risk I see is wolves just let Gertie get it and munch her tomorrow. Is there a different combination that also works? Playing in my head with taking Gertie out and adding someone new at 5- does anyone see a flaw in that?

Desmond WW · 16-04-2019 2:20pm

Mary WW wrote: »

Biggest risk I see is wolves just let Gertie get it and munch her tomorrow. Is there a different combination that also works? Playing in my head with taking Gertie out and adding someone new at 5- does anyone see a flaw in that?

Well, we could try something saucy out ?

Like pick the numbers at 5.25? Makes it harder for wolves to plan ahead and chance that all 4 might not be available ?

Steve WW · 16-04-2019 2:20pm

Mary WW wrote: »

Biggest risk I see is wolves just let Gertie get it and munch her tomorrow. Is there a different combination that also works? Playing in my head with taking Gertie out and adding someone new at 5- does anyone see a flaw in that?

The powers have to be used within six hours so will be gone by morning anyway. I think if we stick with the same people, possibly moving them around we could clear another person and win another prize

Steve WW · 16-04-2019 2:22pm

Desmond WW wrote: »

Well, we could try something saucy out ?

Like pick the numbers at 5.25? Makes it harder for wolves to plan ahead and chance that all 4 might not be available ?

Interesting idea but what if someone misses putting the number in and it goes to the wolves if they already have numbers sent in?

Desmond WW · 16-04-2019 2:23pm

Desmond WW wrote: »

Well, we could try something saucy out ?

Like pick the numbers at 5.25? Makes it harder for wolves to plan ahead and chance that all 4 might not be available ?

If we make Gertie number 4 and me number 5 (assuming people are ok with that). It means the wolves have to strategically force a win for Gertie or we clear another person ?

Phil WW · 16-04-2019 2:24pm

Desmond WW wrote: »

Well, we could try something saucy out ?

Like pick the numbers at 5.25? Makes it harder for wolves to plan ahead and chance that all 4 might not be available ?

Possibly, though we'd be at risk of a wolf dictating the numbers if there was one in play among us....

Conor WW · 16-04-2019 2:24pm

Steve WW wrote: »

The powers have to be used within six hours so will be gone by morning anyway. I think if we stick with the same people, possibly moving them around we could clear another person and win another prize

5 Hours. Would be good to know if the power blocker interrupts actions already put in place or if it doesn't take effect until next rotation.

Desmond WW · 16-04-2019 2:25pm

Steve WW wrote: »

Interesting idea but what if someone misses putting the number in and it goes to the wolves if they already have numbers sent in?

That is actually a problem and what if only wolves are around at that time....

What about my other idea ?

Make Gertie number 4,me number 5 and the other three 1-3. If there is a wolf in there the wolves have to strategically push the votes onto gertie or another villager or we know at least one of them is a wolf ?

Mary WW · 16-04-2019 2:26pm

Steve WW wrote: »

The powers have to be used within six hours so will be gone by morning anyway. I think if we stick with the same people, possibly moving them around we could clear another person and win another prize

Oh I get that, two problems though
1 I think alice Isringhausen is in play tonight
2 building a pool of cleared villagers is important. I think this will let us do that in a way that exposes the wolves if they mess with it, but that means we need new winners each, or at least most runs

Still figuring it out though

Desmond WW · 16-04-2019 2:27pm

I propose the following:

#1 Phil
#2 Steve
#3 Holly
#4 Gertie
#5 Desmond

We know Gertie is prob good. If there is a wolf in 1-3 then they will have to either not vote or push them down the list.

Anybody see any holes in this plan ? Anybody deviating from the plan puts 1-3 in a suspects list.

Mary WW · 16-04-2019 2:32pm

Desmond WW wrote: »

If we make Gertie number 4 and me number 5 (assuming people are ok with that). It means the wolves have to strategically force a win for Gertie or we clear another person ?

This is why I suggested excluding Gertie next time. With 4 wolves if everyone this morning is clear then wolves can’t win regardless of who number 5 is, and if there is a wolf in the 4 they risk exposing themselves. Would mean we needed to cover about a few extra numbers like this morning

Abigail WW · 16-04-2019 2:32pm

Did the wolves want Gertie to win? Why not cover 1234? Were we not expecting a Des win at no.5?

So who should be role blocked? dunno if Bren is on the level but now I feel he may have had a point about focusing on getting the prize too much. I don't really know who to use it on. I've been bouncing from one person to another in my head since day 2 started and still don't have a super strong read on a few people. Forgot Katie was playing until I checked the post count list.

Brendan WW · 16-04-2019 2:34pm

Desmond WW wrote: »

I propose the following:

#1 Phil
#2 Steve
#3 Holly
#4 Gertie
#5 Desmond

We know Gertie is prob good. If there is a wolf in 1-3 then they will have to either not vote or push them down the list.

Anybody see any holes in this plan ? Anybody deviating from the plan puts 1-3 in a suspects list.

Works for me, want me to go 6 again?

I'll be back on fully from about 5 or so.

Desmond WW · 16-04-2019 2:40pm

Abigail WW wrote: »

Did the wolves want Gertie to win? Why not cover 1234? Were we not expecting a Des win at no.5?

So who should be role blocked? dunno if Bren is on the level but now I feel he may have had a point about focusing on getting the prize too much. I don't really know who to use it on. I've been bouncing from one person to another in my head since day 2 started and still don't have a super strong read on a few people. Forgot Katie was playing until I checked the post count list.

It looks like the wolves wanted Gertie to win. The question is whether only three of them voted or if 4 of them voted. If it was all 4 then it means they were more then likely protecting somebody in 1-3.

Wendy WW · 16-04-2019 2:40pm

Desmond WW wrote: »

I propose the following:

#1 Phil
#2 Steve
#3 Holly
#4 Gertie
#5 Desmond

We know Gertie is prob good. If there is a wolf in 1-3 then they will have to either not vote or push them down the list.

Anybody see any holes in this plan ? Anybody deviating from the plan puts 1-3 in a suspects list.

Well Gertie has to be good because of Ellsworth. So lock clear IMO when combined with the Derry death.

Holly WW · 16-04-2019 2:44pm

Desmond WW wrote: »

I propose the following:

#1 Phil
#2 Steve
#3 Holly
#4 Gertie
#5 Desmond

We know Gertie is prob good. If there is a wolf in 1-3 then they will have to either not vote or push them down the list.

Anybody see any holes in this plan ? Anybody deviating from the plan puts 1-3 in a suspects list.

I can commit, let me know if you change my number otherwise I'm voting 3, I'll be in and out checking when I can

Abigail WW · 16-04-2019 2:46pm

Desmond WW wrote: »

It looks like the wolves wanted Gertie to win. The question is whether only three of them voted or if 4 of them voted. If it was all 4 then it means they were more then likely protecting somebody in 1-3.

I'm less suss of you today but could they not have also been protecting you? We expected them to go 1234 and you to win. That did not happen, if you were a wolf and won would that have outed you?

Desmond WW · 16-04-2019 2:48pm

Going to Assume the first game was void cause vernon left the door open for wolves accidentally.

Gold Rush Games :

Game 2:

#1 Brendan
#2 Conor
#3 Vernon (good)
#4 ewan
#5 Desmond

Wolves Win. At least One of Brendan/Conor/Ewan likely a wolf

Game 3:
1. Phil
2. Steve
3. Holly
4. Gertie
5. Des

Gertie Wins. Possible that one of Phil, Steve, Holly a wolf.

Mary WW · 16-04-2019 2:51pm

Abigail WW wrote: »

I'm less suss of you today but could they not have also been protecting you? We expected them to go 1234 and you to win. That did not happen, if you were a wolf and won would that have outed you?

Wouldn’t that need 5 wolves?

Desmond WW · 16-04-2019 2:51pm

Abigail WW wrote: »

I'm less suss of you today but could they not have also been protecting you? We expected them to go 1234 and you to win. That did not happen, if you were a wolf and won would that have outed you?

They could of been protecting any potential wolf in the list. This is the problem with my strategy, the wolves can manipulate it any way they want.

The pros is that we can exert pressure on wolves. Its not full proof but unless I am reading the rules of the game incorrectly, its better then not having any strategy.

Abigail WW · 16-04-2019 2:52pm

Why are people clearing Gertie? Because she shared the fact that she got the prize? I have a slight village lean on her but surely she could just be a wolf who won the prize but is playing along with the village. That is possible isn't it? A role block is also a completely unverifiable prize to have. How will we ever know if it does anything?

as said I don't really suspect Gertie but i'd be reluctant to clear anyone yet

Desmond WW · 16-04-2019 2:54pm

Mary WW wrote: »

Wouldn’t that need 5 wolves?

I think I get what Abigail is saying. Lets say I am the only wolf in 1-5. Wolves voting 1-3 protects me and makes it look like there is a wolf in 1-3 . .

A counter to this theory would be that there was a wolf in 1-3 and all the wolves had to vote to push the suspicion away from the actual wolf.

Abigail WW · 16-04-2019 2:55pm

Mary WW wrote: »

Wouldn’t that need 5 wolves?

Well actually the more I consider it I don't think a wolf winning would out them anyway. So not sure if making someone else win would protect Des although it does leave him out of the conversation altogether

Abigail WW · 16-04-2019 2:56pm

Desmond WW wrote: »

I think I get what Abigail is saying. Lets say I am the only wolf in 1-5. Wolves voting 1-3 protects me and makes it look like there is a wolf in 1-3 . .

A counter to this theory would be that there was a wolf in 1-3 and all the wolves had to vote to push the suspicion away from the actual wolf.

Yeah thats it, could go either way really.

Desmond WW · 16-04-2019 2:58pm

Abigail WW wrote: »

Why are people clearing Gertie? Because she shared the fact that she got the prize? I have a slight village lean on her but surely she could just be a wolf who won the prize but is playing along with the village. That is possible isn't it? A role block is also a completely unverifiable prize to have. How will we ever know if it does anything?

as said I don't really suspect Gertie but i'd be reluctant to clear anyone yet

Ok, fine lets play this out.

Wolves more then likely won the first prize. Somebody good was killed with that prize. But also the gold wasnt won yesterday afternoon which suggests the wolves blocked the win. If they blocked the win they must of already won something.

Somebody won a prize today because it was announced on thread. That has to be a villager. The only person who confirmed a win was Gertie. Unless baddies have control over a villager I cant see how that can be the case.

I will stand corrected but unless we are reading the rules of goldrush wrong and not missing some other mechanic (baddy power etc) I cant work out how Gertie couldnt be good. But you are welcome to provide a theory ?

Abigail WW · 16-04-2019 3:00pm

Desmond WW wrote: »

Ok, fine lets play this out.

Wolves more then likely won the first prize. Somebody good was killed with that prize. But also the gold wasnt won yesterday afternoon which suggests the wolves blocked the win. If they blocked the win they must of already won something.

Somebody won a prize today because it was announced on thread. That has to be a villager. The only person who confirmed a win was Gertie. Unless baddies have control over a villager I cant see how that can be the case.

I will stand corrected but unless we are reading the rules of goldrush wrong and not missing some other mechanic (baddy power etc) I cant work out how Gertie couldnt be good. But you are welcome to provide a theory ?

Nah that actually makes sense as the wolves can only have 1 GR win at the moment. Wasn't blocked it was won today, forgot about that.

okay at least thats a good thing even if my potential theory went nowhere. don't have to disprove everything

Mary WW · 16-04-2019 3:04pm

Desmond WW wrote: »

I think I get what Abigail is saying. Lets say I am the only wolf in 1-5. Wolves voting 1-3 protects me and makes it look like there is a wolf in 1-3 . .

A counter to this theory would be that there was a wolf in 1-3 and all the wolves had to vote to push the suspicion away from the actual wolf.

Broadly true, but....

A village winner clears no one else in the pool, just (presumably) the village winner. If there’s a wolf in there they can avoid a wolf win by simply not voting and saying they did and got blocked. There are only two outcomes we can get from a full run of this strategy

1. A villager wins a prize and is cleared
2. No winner and we know there’s a wolf in the pool somewhere

The reason is looked to take Gertie out next time is to help build a pool of villagers. The wolves have an approx 1.5 rate of villager attrition. We can clear up to 2 villagers a day if were correct on village winners being lock clear. With a seer in play that gives us >2 clears a day which should win the game

Desmond WW · 16-04-2019 3:05pm

God Im getting no work done this week! I work for myself so self discipline goes out the window during WW....

Steve WW · 16-04-2019 3:10pm

A lot of really good ideas being thrown around. What do we think we should do for the next GR so?

I’m thinking if what Des is saying is true, that the wolves were protecting 1 of the 4 or even himself. Would it not be a good idea to keep the original five. Switch up their order but have Gert 1st and if we win or lose it could give us more information if there is a wolf among us and possibly help with the lynch later or using the power block? So say..

- Wolves block 1-4, Des wins and is cleared.
- Wolves block 1-3, third person wins, that’s another cleared and depending on the order of the list we could see then if they were protecting someone again?

I don’t think I’m explaining that well but I hope you understand what I’m saying. Anyone see faults in that?

Werewolf: HBO's Deadwood

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