Werewolf: HBO's Deadwood

Desmond WW

Mary WW wrote: »

Broadly true, but....

A village winner clears no one else in the pool, just (presumably) the village winner. If there’s a wolf in there they can avoid a wolf win by simply not voting and saying they did and got blocked. There are only two outcomes we can get from a full run of this strategy

1. A villager wins a prize and is cleared
2. No winner and we know there’s a wolf in the pool somewhere

The reason is looked to take Gertie out next time is to help build a pool of villagers. The wolves have an approx 1.5 rate of villager attrition. We can clear up to 2 villagers a day if were correct on village winners being lock clear. With a seer in play that gives us >2 clears a day which should win the game

I know what you are saying, my concern is that any change to the list (name wise) and the wolves can pull the plug on us winning anything.

Ok so will we take out Gertie and add you to the list ? We could make you number 1, then Phil, then Steve, then Holly. If one of the other three is bad then we may clear one of yee?

Mary WW

Steve WW wrote: »

A lot of really good ideas being thrown around. What do we think we should do for the next GR so?

I’m thinking if what Des is saying is true, that the wolves were protecting 1 of the 4 or even himself. Would it not be a good idea to keep the original five. Switch up their order but have Gert 1st and if we win or lose it could give us more information if there is a wolf among us and possibly help with the lynch later or using the power block? So say..

- Wolves block 1-4, Des wins and is cleared.
- Wolves block 1-3, third person wins, that’s another cleared and depending on the order of the list we could see then if they were protecting someone again?


I don’t think I’m explaining that well but I hope you understand what I’m saying. Anyone see faults in that?

My biggest issue there is Gertie is clear already so anything that lets the wolves give her another win would cost us information

Steve WW

Mary WW wrote: »

Broadly true, but....

A village winner clears no one else in the pool, just (presumably) the village winner. If there’s a wolf in there they can avoid a wolf win by simply not voting and saying they did and got blocked. There are only two outcomes we can get from a full run of this strategy

1. A villager wins a prize and is cleared
2. No winner and we know there’s a wolf in the pool somewhere

The reason is looked to take Gertie out next time is to help build a pool of villagers. The wolves have an approx 1.5 rate of villager attrition. We can clear up to 2 villagers a day if were correct on village winners being lock clear. With a seer in play that gives us >2 clears a day which should win the game

I’m open to correction but if we kept the same people, could we not still clear 2 people a day?

Mary WW

Steve WW wrote: »

I’m open to correction but if we kept the same people, could we not still clear 2 people a day?

In theory yes, but it can be manipulated to have the same winner each time

Steve WW

Mary WW wrote: »

My biggest issue there is Gertie is clear already so anything that lets the wolves give her another win would cost us information

I get you, so they could just let her win at number 1 and we wouldn’t confirm another villager.

Gertrude WW

I wonder what I have to do to show i'm not a wolf.

It is a good plan though, let me win and then make everything think I'm a wolf so they vote me out

Desmond WW

Gertrude WW wrote: »

I wonder what I have to do to show i'm not a wolf.

It is a good plan though, let me win and then make everything think I'm a wolf so they vote me out

Your fine Gertie, dont go down that rabbit hole . .

Yet :P

Steve WW

Gertrude WW wrote: »

I wonder what I have to do to show i'm not a wolf.

It is a good plan though, let me win and then make everything think I'm a wolf so they vote me out

Gert don’t worry, we know from the game rules that a wolf couldn’t win again. If you were a wolf we would have gotten the same message as yesterday I believe.

So guys do you think we should bring in another person for the next one? Put them in Gerts original place and see what happens. Any ideas how the wolves can manipulate this?

Abigail WW

Gertrude WW wrote: »

I wonder what I have to do to show i'm not a wolf.

It is a good plan though, let me win and then make everything think I'm a wolf so they vote me out

If anything it’s made people think you’re team village and the choice seems to be win more prizes with you or clear others without you in a lineup.

Personally I like prizes

Steve WW

1,000 posts. Woo

Can anyone do one of those post counts so far?

Gertrude WW

Let's not forget I have a power block to use. I have to give them a target. I am open to just being told what to do with this because I'm still learning here and I'm not sure who has what powers, I know the woman who can make someone forget.

I suggest we decide amongst ourselves which two we think are wolves. Lynch one and block the other one.

My votes would be for Katie and Ewan, or Ewan and Mary. or just Ewan plus one other.

Desmond WW

Game 3:
1. Phil
2. Steve
3. Holly
4. Gertie
5. Des

What about:

1. Phil
2. Steve
3. Holly
4. Des/Mary
5. Gertie

I am happy to put my kneck on the line for this strategy. I know I am good so if we dont win Im dead certain that one of 1-3 is bad.

That said , I am a high profile poster so i expect wolves to try and use it to make me look bad. If people would prefer I wasnt in the list I dont mind, what I am saying is that Im ok being a guinea pig.

Mary WW

Gertrude WW wrote: »

Let's not forget I have a power block to use. I have to give them a target. I am open to just being told what to do with this because I'm still learning here and I'm not sure who has what powers, I know the woman who can make someone forget.

I suggest we decide amongst ourselves which two we think are wolves. Lynch one and block the other one.

My votes would be for Katie and Ewan, or Ewan and Mary. or just Ewan plus one other.

Ewan/ Brendan is my either or from earlier, that would be my suggestion

Desmond WW

Mary WW wrote: »

Ewan/ Brendan is my either or from earlier, that would be my suggestion

If these two were going to be the potential lynch targets tonight it would make sense.

Abigail WW

Gertrude WW wrote: »

Let's not forget I have a power block to use. I have to give them a target. I am open to just being told what to do with this because I'm still learning here and I'm not sure who has what powers, I know the woman who can make someone forget.

I suggest we decide amongst ourselves which two we think are wolves. Lynch one and block the other one.

My votes would be for Katie and Ewan, or Ewan and Mary. or just Ewan plus one other.

I'd have no problem you blocking any one of them. In terms of who has powers and who to aim for it's simply who seems the most wolfie to you. I've actually liked the contributions from people a lot more today, seems more constructive and that makes low posters stand out more as although I usually expect 1 talkative wolf, i'd def suspect less constructive posters like them.

Phil WW

I’m good for whatever with the gold rush. I’d love a prize and to prove I’m good.

I’d also be pro Brendan or Ewan being blocked.

Gertrude WW

Everyone has mentioned Ewan, which is a good or bad thing, shall we say him to block and him to lynch?

Steve WW

Desmond WW wrote: »

Game 3:
1. Phil
2. Steve
3. Holly
4. Gertie
5. Des

What about:

1. Phil
2. Steve
3. Holly
4. Des/Mary
5. Gertie

I am happy to put my kneck on the line for this strategy. I know I am good so if we dont win Im dead certain that one of 1-3 is bad.

That said , I am a high profile poster so i expect wolves to try and use it to make me look bad. If people would prefer I wasnt in the list I dont mind, what I am saying is that Im ok being a guinea pig.

Des I had no problem with you being 5 to begin with as I believe you to be good. However as has been brought up the wolves could have let Gert win to protect you at 5. If we slot you in 4 and as you said the wolves could manipulate it so you don’t win, it would look suspicious two games in a row and you having pointed that out.

I still believe you’re good, just something to think about.

Phil WW

Gertrude WW wrote: »

Everyone has mentioned Ewan, which is a good or bad thing, shall we say him to block and him to lynch?

If the seer is alive (yeah?), could also block him and seer check him safely?

Steve WW

Phil WW wrote: »

I’m good for whatever with the gold rush. I’d love a prize and to prove I’m good.

I’d also be pro Brendan or Ewan being blocked.

Kind of leaned towards Brendan when I first read about the role block. How he revealed himself as NRV, could have thought the seer wouldn’t peek him then?

I held off saying it earlier however as if we use it on him and he turns out to really be NRV then we’ve wasted the power

Abigail WW

Phil WW wrote: »

If the seer is alive (yeah?), could also block him and seer check him safely?

You couldn't know that was going to happen though as we would not be advocating for the seer to confirm on thread. Might be early to decide lynch but Ewan would make an FFA for me most likely.

Gertrude WW

Phil WW wrote: »

If the seer is alive (yeah?), could also block him and seer check him safely?

This is a great move, any reason not to do this, do we know who the seer is?

Gertrude WW

So Ewan to block at least, shall we take a vote?

Abigail WW

Gertrude WW wrote: »

This is a great move, any reason not to do this, do we know who the seer is?

Thats the reason not to do it. Seer can't confirm any action without outing themselves to the wolves.



If people are pushing Brendan for the NRV claim i'd sooner urge the Seer to confirm that and Ewan is blocked and potentially lynched later unless we catch something more confirmed.



The next prize could change the approach too

Steve WW

Abigail WW wrote: »

Thats the reason not to do it. Seer can't confirm any action without outing themselves to the wolves.



If people are pushing Brendan for the NRV claim i'd sooner urge the Seer to confirm that and Ewan is blocked and potentially lynched later unless we catch something more confirmed.



The next prize could change the approach too

I’d rather leave Brendan altogether if we need the seer to check. I had also thought of how George Hearst when peeked delivers a beat down which can result in death. If Brendan is a wolf, he could also had claimed NRV to goad the seer into peeking him and take them out. I believe from the OP that will out himself too but that would be a nice trade for getting rid of the seer?

Desmond WW

Phil WW wrote: »

If the seer is alive (yeah?), could also block him and seer check him safely?

Thats actually not a bad idea. If we arent going to Lynch Ewan we could use that power and the seer can choose to either take that opportunity or peek somebody else.

Desmond WW

Steve WW wrote: »

I’d rather leave Brendan altogether if we need the seer to check. I had also thought of how George Hearst when peeked delivers a beat down which can result in death. If Brendan is a wolf, he could also had claimed NRV to goad the seer into peeking him and take them out. I believe from the OP that will out himself too but that would be a nice trade for getting rid of the seer?

I think we make a call on who will be lynched tonight by maybe 6 (United match on later!) and we suggest Gertie throws the block power on the other.

But we wait until 5.30 to see if we get any other prizes.

Mary WW

Abigail WW wrote: »

Thats the reason not to do it. Seer can't confirm any action without outing themselves to the wolves.



If people are pushing Brendan for the NRV claim i'd sooner urge the Seer to confirm that and Ewan is blocked and potentially lynched later unless we catch something more confirmed.



The next prize could change the approach too

Don’t forget there are two wolves that pose problems for the seer. One of those requires two peeks so presumably shows as good first. Power block may, or may not, negate that

Desmond WW

Game 2:

#1 Brendan
#2 Conor
#3 Vernon (good)
#4 ewan
#5 Desmond

Wolves Win. At least One of Brendan/Conor/Ewan likely a wolf

Just curious, why is Conor getting a pass and the focus is all on Ewan ?

Steve WW

Just thinking if we chose wrong and block Ellsworth does that mean the wolves can win prizes again?