The D15 Local Election Thread

LorelaiG

Donnelly (SF), Doyle (IND), Kitt (FF), Dennison (FG) and Whooley (Green) elected in Ongar. All seats filled.

LorelaiG

O'Gorman (Green), Currie (FG), Leddy (FG), Walsh (Labour), Mahoney (FF) elected in Castleknock. 1 seat left to fill.

Caranica

LorelaiG wrote: »

O'Gorman (Green), Currie (FG), Leddy (FG), Walsh (Labour), Mahoney (FF) elected in Castleknock. 1 seat left to fill.

Mags Murray got a really poor vote, was surprised at it.

Former Former

Caranica wrote: »

Mags Murray got a really poor vote, was surprised at it.

She hasn't done a tap in five years and she didn't put up a single poster.

I'm surprised she got any sort of vote tbh.

Caranica

Former Former wrote: »

She hasn't done a tap in five years and she didn't put up a single poster.

I'm surprised she got any sort of vote tbh.

I'd argue that she's done nothing for a lot longer than five years Yet she always got elected

chucknorris

Some thoughts no the outcome. By name which i think is easier.

Punam Rane (FG) (not aware of her prior to the run, but did read the literature. She did well considering. FG don;t usually have a presence in Blanch Mulhuddart.

JK Onwumereh (FF) Never heard of him, probably never will again.
Cllr. Mary McCamley (Lab) Very active and not surprising she topped the poll. She's been at it for quite a while. Good to see.
Breda Hanaphy (SF) Did very well first time out. The residual SF vote is decent here even though Donnelly moved on to a more strategic part of the constituency to make a Dail run, perhaps his last chance. SF vote not strong enough over all to stop Coppinger and the added nightmare of a Green surge.
Damien Bissett (SF) Not aware of him before this election. His vote combined with hanaphys is a good outcome for SF in Mulhuddart,
Sinead Moore (Aontú) No idea who she is.
Marius Marosan (Ind) No idea who he is.
John Burtchaell (Solidarity) Elected - not aware of him, but the solidarity candidates come out of no where and mop up that vote every time.
Freddie Cooper (FF) I do actually know his family. FF vote down in his part of the constituency. He did ok for a man who on the doorstep over the years complained about the establushed parties and then joins one :-)
Robert Loughlin (Ind) No idea who he is.
Lorna Nolan (Ind) Did very poorly. Surprising to some but not to myself - disappears for years then surfaces for election time.
Aran Smeallie (Ind) No idea whe he is.

Here are the candidates declared so far for the other LEAs in D15.

Ongar

Jagannadha R Muttumula (FG) No idea.
Cllr. Kieran Dennison (FG) Nervous for a while but got over the line. Happy to see it - he's a decent fella.
Tom Kitt (FF) No surprise, there is a strong FF vote in the locality.
Elaine Dooley (Lab) No idea
Cllr. Paul Donnelly (SF) No surprise, large support for SF in this area, and is close to where he lives. Will it be enough to mount a GE seat in the Dail, i'm not so sure. If solidatory regress more, then you never know but their support ramps up for a GE.
Marian Buckley (SF) running made for Paul, did ok.
Cllr. Matt Waine (Solidarity) Four elections now that he's lost. He's a very abrupt personality and i for one am dleighted he didn't get in. Too ratty for my liking.
Aengus O’Maolain (Soc Dem) NO idea how he is.
Raghu Narayanam (Ind) NO idea
Daniel Whooley (Green) did well - never heard of him.
Tania Doyle (Ind) - did superbly. great campaign and very engaging and colourful. The oposite of Matt Waine and there is a historic fall out there.
Ramesh Racherla (Ind) No idea
Gerard Sheehan (Aontú) No idea


Castleknock

Cllr. Ted Leddy (FG) - Did well and re-elected as expected. Decent fella.
Emer Currie (FG) - did superbly and this is bad news for SF, labour and even greens. I don't know what she did to get that vote other than having a well know surname, but thats the way it is. Varadkar will clearly have his eye on trying for two seats in the GE. perhaps at joan burtons expense.
Cllr. Howard Mahony (FF) got in, but not smootly. very little support for him canvassing, posters etc. the show is now on the other foot.
Cllr. Mags Murray (FF) disappeared off the face of the earth a long time ago. people realised it eventually.
John Walsh (Lab) no idea
Cllr. Natalie Treacy (SF) scraped through. this is why i tihnk paul donnellys chances are hampered. although the shinners will disagree - this is where a big vote needed to be maintained.
Ryan Fitzgerald (SF) no idea
Cllr. Sandra Kavanagh (Solidarity) gone and delighted. no,no,no, no to absolutely everything.
Cllr. Roderic O’Gorman (Green) - said it here many times on the d15 forum, always sticks and it and got his rewards, delighted.
Edward McManus (Aontú) - feel it for him. he did well this time. very unlucky.
Kevin Mullally (Ind) - no idea.




so, i reckon FG might target Joan Burtons seat, and with a green surge, SF i think will not beneift from any scenario. I think there could be a GE in the next six months.

Based on all of this, it looks like 1 FG 1FF 1 solidarity and the other between FG, Labour, Greens.

There is rumour that Lynn Boylan could be parachuted in to run for the Dail here, but i doubt it. She did poorly and Paul Donnelly deserves a final shot at it.

apologies for spelling and grammar, but very busy today.

oLoonatic

chucknorris wrote: »

Some thoughts no the outcome. By name which i think is easier.

Punam Rane (FG) (not aware of her prior to the run, but did read the literature. She did well considering. FG don;t usually have a presence in Blanch Mulhuddart.

JK Onwumereh (FF) Never heard of him, probably never will again.
Cllr. Mary McCamley (Lab) Very active and not surprising she topped the poll. She's been at it for quite a while. Good to see.
Breda Hanaphy (SF) Did very well first time out. The residual SF vote is decent here even though Donnelly moved on to a more strategic part of the constituency to make a Dail run, perhaps his last chance. SF vote not strong enough over all to stop Coppinger and the added nightmare of a Green surge.
Damien Bissett (SF) Not aware of him before this election. His vote combined with hanaphys is a good outcome for SF in Mulhuddart,
Sinead Moore (Aontú) No idea who she is.
Marius Marosan (Ind) No idea who he is.
John Burtchaell (Solidarity) Elected - not aware of him, but the solidarity candidates come out of no where and mop up that vote every time.
Freddie Cooper (FF) I do actually know his family. FF vote down in his part of the constituency. He did ok for a man who on the doorstep over the years complained about the establushed parties and then joins one :-)
Robert Loughlin (Ind) No idea who he is.
Lorna Nolan (Ind) Did very poorly. Surprising to some but not to myself - disappears for years then surfaces for election time.
Aran Smeallie (Ind) No idea whe he is.

Here are the candidates declared so far for the other LEAs in D15.

Ongar

Jagannadha R Muttumula (FG) No idea.
Cllr. Kieran Dennison (FG) Nervous for a while but got over the line. Happy to see it - he's a decent fella.
Tom Kitt (FF) No surprise, there is a strong FF vote in the locality.
Elaine Dooley (Lab) No idea
Cllr. Paul Donnelly (SF) No surprise, large support for SF in this area, and is close to where he lives. Will it be enough to mount a GE seat in the Dail, i'm not so sure. If solidatory regress more, then you never know but their support ramps up for a GE.
Marian Buckley (SF) running made for Paul, did ok.
Cllr. Matt Waine (Solidarity) Four elections now that he's lost. He's a very abrupt personality and i for one am dleighted he didn't get in. Too ratty for my liking.
Aengus O’Maolain (Soc Dem) NO idea how he is.
Raghu Narayanam (Ind) NO idea
Daniel Whooley (Green) did well - never heard of him.
Tania Doyle (Ind) - did superbly. great campaign and very engaging and colourful. The oposite of Matt Waine and there is a historic fall out there.
Ramesh Racherla (Ind) No idea
Gerard Sheehan (Aontú) No idea


Castleknock

Cllr. Ted Leddy (FG) - Did well and re-elected as expected. Decent fella.
Emer Currie (FG) - did superbly and this is bad news for SF, labour and even greens. I don't know what she did to get that vote other than having a well know surname, but thats the way it is. Varadkar will clearly have his eye on trying for two seats in the GE. perhaps at joan burtons expense.
Cllr. Howard Mahony (FF) got in, but not smootly. very little support for him canvassing, posters etc. the show is now on the other foot.
Cllr. Mags Murray (FF) disappeared off the face of the earth a long time ago. people realised it eventually.
John Walsh (Lab) no idea
Cllr. Natalie Treacy (SF) scraped through. this is why i tihnk paul donnellys chances are hampered. although the shinners will disagree - this is where a big vote needed to be maintained.
Ryan Fitzgerald (SF) no idea
Cllr. Sandra Kavanagh (Solidarity) gone and delighted. no,no,no, no to absolutely everything.
Cllr. Roderic O’Gorman (Green) - said it here many times on the d15 forum, always sticks and it and got his rewards, delighted.
Edward McManus (Aontú) - feel it for him. he did well this time. very unlucky.
Kevin Mullally (Ind) - no idea.




so, i reckon FG might target Joan Burtons seat, and with a green surge, SF i think will now beneift from any scenario. I think there could be a GE in the next six months.

Based on all of this, it looks like 1 FG 1FF 1 solidarity and the other between FG, Labour, Greens.

There is rumour that Lynn Boylan could be parachuted in to run for the Dail here, but i doubt it. She did poorly and Paul Donnelly deserves a final shot at it.

Yeah, I'm pretty much on par with what you have said here. I feel it was a huge mistake that solidarity ran harrold for europe. Its the wrong time at the moment for that. And to compete with FF and FG in the area they need to change slightly, instead of giving a constant message of being "radical"

Toto Wolfcastle

I’ve read that Dennison is decent and does a lot for the area but he didn’t bother replying to an email I sent him recently.

In contrast, Elaine Dooley replied quickly and positively.

chucknorris

oLoonatic wrote: »

Yeah, I'm pretty much on par with what you have said here. I feel it was a huge mistake that solidarity ran harrold for europe. Its the wrong time at the moment for that. And to compete with FF and FG in the area they need to change slightly, instead of giving a constant message of being "radical"

I also cannot keep up with the party name changes and i've been involved in politics locally for a fair while. imagine the confusion for the generasl public. I just keep referring to them as the socialists.

Caranica

I think Punam Rane benefitted from the part of Blanchardstown that was added to the old Mulhuddart lea, though wasn't Dennison a Councillor for Mulhuddart previously before opting to run in Ongar this time.

Chuck I think you were too kind to McManus. Firstly you forgot to mention he was ex FF. Secondly I think it's worrying that Aontú got a decent vote in a constituency that is so multi cultural.

oLoonatic

chucknorris wrote: »

I also cannot keep up with the party name changes and i've been involved in politics locally for a fair while. imagine the confusion for the generasl public. I just keep referring to them as the socialists.

I actually quite like the new branding, but yeah its been a bit farcical with the amount of changes. I still think that coppinger has a fight on her hands in the next LE. Donnelly got more first preferences and in fairness too him has been very active over the last number of years.

Nijmegen

Agree with a lot of the analysis. SF really have collapsed and I'm not sure Paul D will ever see the inside of the Dail as a deputy to be honest. He just isn't transfer friendly enough. Actually if they want to win I think they'll need to shaft their comrade and parachute in a name to try and land grab a lot of the FPV. As for Solidarity, I agree they run better in GEs but they picked up less than 2,000 FPVs in the wards of Dublin West. They have to be disappointed in that. Tho Labour only picked up about 2,500 so...

The idea of a 2nd FG seat just doesn't stack up in DUBW, and I think the results here show it. Rane did very well to take a seat in the ward, but the turnout was so low (making the quota a little over 800 votes) that what I'd imagine happened was they got good turnout among the Indian vote up in places like Tyrrelstown and then got the FG vote out in the part of Blanch and perhaps some of the newer, more middle class seeming estates going in - I can't speak for my neighbors in Hollywoodrath for example, but new houses, plenty of recent year reg cars, doesn't strike me as a leftish bastion of support and parties like FG should do reasonably there.

Beyond Mulhuddart then it's the usual story - a solid seat in Ongar thanks to hard work and transfers and 2 seats in Castleknock because, well, it's Castleknock. The only way FG get a 2nd seat is if the left split the vote in such a way that one sneaks in, eg Joan Burton goes out early enough to transfer heavily to a well managed 2nd FG candidate who got enough of the FPV to be in the hunt. Joan Burton and the Labour team mind the constituency well enough that I couldn't see that happening.

As for Castleknock nearly electing an Aontú candidate, remember he has history and there's also a solid pro-life vote in Castleknock.

chucknorris

Caranica wrote: »

I think Punam Rane benefitted from the part of Blanchardstown that was added to the old Mulhuddart lea, though wasn't Dennison a Councillor for Mulhuddart previously before opting to run in Ongar this time.

Chuck I think you were too kind to McManus. Firstly you forgot to mention he was ex FF. Secondly I think it's worrying that Aontú got a decent vote in a constituency that is so multi cultural.

He was FF, then he was SF, now he is Aontú. I felt sorry for him in a human way. He really wants it but can't get there. A good businessman but not a solid candidate.

I think Paul Donnelly is a very good local candidate but I don't think a Dail seat is there for him. His chance was snuffed out by Ruth Coppinger in the most mischivious way but thats the game.

Just a side note. If in five years you think you could give the locals a crack, and were succesful. You'll be paid on average €700 per month after tax. That's a fair whack towarda mortgage payment. But its a hard game - the abuse from people online and in pubs etc requires a hard neck but would it be worth a guaranteed five years off your mortgage whether you did something or not as the likes of Maggs Murray and Edmond Lukusa demonstrated?

Now i know you may say it should not be about the few quid but i can tell you a lot of them think exactly that way.

LorelaiG

I think you've been v harsh towards Sandra Kavanagh and Matt Waine. I know them both via the repeal campaign and IMO they've been some of the most active councillors in Fingal over the last number of years.

chucknorris

LorelaiG wrote: »

I think you've been v harsh towards Sandra Kavanagh and Matt Waine. I know them both via the repeal campaign and IMO they've been some of the most active councillors in Fingal over the last number of years.

Strongly disagree with you. Very strong activist approach but the personaility side of things wasn't exactly warm and the outcome from Friday backs that up for me.

In an area with the socialists are strong, Waine hasn't received a mandate on four occasions. There has to be a reason. His only time in a seat was thanks to a co-op.

Sandra has supported Coppinger very well but what was her record on the council in which she was elected for? Responding to queries, having an online presence, being active, being positive, being enaging, supporting initiatives. Not banging on with a megaphone.

Remind me

chucknorris wrote: »

He was FF, then he was SF, now he is Aontú. I felt sorry for him in a human way. He really wants it but can't get there. A good businessman but not a solid candidate.

I think Paul Donnelly is a very good local candidate but I don't think a Dail seat is there for him. His chance was snuffed out by Ruth Coppinger in the most mischivious way but thats the game.

Just a side note. If in five years you think you could give the locals a crack, and were succesful. You'll be paid on average €700 per month after tax. That's a fair whack towarda mortgage payment. But its a hard game - the abuse from people online and in pubs etc requires a hard neck but would it be worth a guaranteed five years off your mortgage whether you did something or not as the likes of Maggs Murray and Edmond Lukusa demonstrated?

Now i know you may say it should not be about the few quid but i can tell you a lot of them think exactly that way.

I can see no other reason why some of them run bar the money.

You have pointed out Murray and I’d agree and she’s certainly not the only one.

On a side note I do think Coppinger could struggle a little at next GE

Polar101

I left Waine off my ballot because I don't feel Coppinger and co. are great at working with others - they are certainly active, but seem to be against everything. The biggest thing for me was that they seem to hate the new BusConnects ("bus services being axed") which I find bizarre.

Please note that it might not be the case - but that's what it sounded like to me at least.

I gave my #1 to Whooley because I'd like to see someone new represent the area and he was the only Green candidate.

blanch152

chucknorris wrote: »

Strongly disagree with you. Very strong activist approach but the personaility side of things wasn't exactly warm and the outcome from Friday backs that up for me.

In an area with the socialists are strong, Waine hasn't received a mandate on four occasions. There has to be a reason. His only time in a seat was thanks to a co-op.

Sandra has supported Coppinger very well but what was her record on the council in which she was elected for? Responding to queries, having an online presence, being active, being positive, being enaging, supporting initiatives. Not banging on with a megaphone.

The problem for Solidarity/PBP/Socialists or whatever is that they are against everything and complain that someone else should fix the problem. They don't like when people get on with it and fix the problems themselves.

If people get together and cut the grass outside their houses, they are against that because the government should do it.

This works at a time when people are down and out and unemployed etc. and things are really bad. But once society recovers and people want to start helping themselves, the likes of Coppinger don't know how to respond.

Larbre34

They'll (socialist parties) probably have something to their teeth into when all these Green taxes and levies begin to roll out in upcoming budgets. Dept of Finance must be quite giddy with the green success.

Interesting few years ahead where the working class especially will have to be brought along on the journey of increased efficiency and reduced consumption. It'll have to be sold very much as a two strand approach of lowering expense and tackling fuel poverty as well as environmental improvement.

Zaph

Larbre34 wrote: »

They'll (socialist parties) probably have something to their teeth into when all these Green taxes and levies begin to roll out in upcoming budgets. Dept of Finance must be quite giddy with the green success.

I saw someone from the Green Party on tv saying that while their plan would be to have taxes, they would be immediately returned to people in the form of rebates. This is what is done in Canada, the idea being that the higher prices on petrol, for example, due to taxes, encourages people to buy more fuel efficient vehicles. I suppose the danger here is once the Dept. of Finance get their grubby mitts on the cash they may not be quite so willing to give it back.

Larbre34

Quite so. Either that or the fear it will be pork-barrelled to aid murky "green" projects in ministerial constituencies.

chucknorris

blanch152 wrote: »

The problem for Solidarity/PBP/Socialists or whatever is that they are against everything and complain that someone else should fix the problem. They don't like when people get on with it and fix the problems themselves.

If people get together and cut the grass outside their houses, they are against that because the government should do it.

This works at a time when people are down and out and unemployed etc. and things are really bad. But once society recovers and people want to start helping themselves, the likes of Coppinger don't know how to respond.

That's their strategy. Find the big issue of the day and be all over it. They are extremely poor on the day to day functions of what a councillor is expected to be, but their core support are fine with that.

Nijmegen

Remind me wrote: »

I can see no other reason why some of them run bar the money.

I'm not so sure of that where the council is concerned - the money is what, about 17k per year gross plus a few expenses like your phone. But a lot of Councillors would spend what they earn between attending things, you're constantly having to reach into your pocket any time there's a raffle or something going on at an event, let alone the election expenses. There might be a very few of them who get elected, do nothing and pocket the cash but I'm not sure it's many.

I left Waine off my ballot because I don't feel Coppinger and co. are great at working with others - they are certainly active, but seem to be against everything.

This. They are absolutely terrible at working with their colleagues either on the council or in any other bodies to actually get anything done. When you actually speak to them they are true Marxist believers who think that they will struggle and toil until the proletariat rise up and anything they do to cooperate in the meantime will simply delay that day. They hop on campaigns and use them to their own end in textbook style as described by their revolutionary idols.

All well and good as soundbites but not so good for getting anything done.

The proper left vote then is fractured by the various PBP/solidarity wings of this tradition, a load of leftie independents and Sinn Fein; and then they're let down by their voters who turn up at a rate that makes richer wards more influential come national elections.

Remind me

Nijmegen wrote: »

I'm not so sure of that where the council is concerned - the money is what, about 17k per year gross plus a few expenses like your phone. But a lot of Councillors would spend what they earn between attending things, you're constantly having to reach into your pocket any time there's a raffle or something going on at an event, let alone the election expenses. There might be a very few of them who get elected, do nothing and pocket the cash but I'm not sure it's many.

Councillors are entitled to claim expenses on top of the €17,000 allowance. Throw in the salary of a full time job like teaching or lecturing (not saying councillors in those positions do no council work!!) and as Chuck says it’s a nice chunk off your mortgage.

Remind me

Nijmegen wrote: »

I'm not so sure of that where the council is concerned - the money is what, about 17k per year gross plus a few expenses like your phone. But a lot of Councillors would spend what they earn between attending things, you're constantly having to reach into your pocket any time there's a raffle or something going on at an event, let alone the election expenses. There might be a very few of them who get elected, do nothing and pocket the cash but I'm not sure it's many.

Councillors are entitled to claim expenses on top of the €17,000 allowance. Throw in the salary of a full time job like teaching or lecturing (not saying councillors in those positions do no council work!!) and as Chuck says it’s a nice chunk off your mortgage.

chucknorris

Remind me wrote: »

Councillors are entitled to claim expenses on top of the €17,000 allowance. Throw in the salary of a full time job like teaching or lecturing (not saying councillors in those positions do no council work!!) and as Chuck says it’s a nice chunk off your mortgage.

Its also a nice to have if you are retired or semi-retired. That's a trend in the Mulhuddart/Blanch ward.

I don't think a single candidate in Blanch/Mulhuddart and possibly Ongar could be considered as young.

Zaph

chucknorris wrote: »

I don't think a single candidate in Blanch/Mulhuddart and possibly Ongar could be considered as young.

I think Daniel Whooley qualifies in Ongar, he's only 20.

chucknorris

Zaph wrote: »

I think Daniel Whooley qualifies in Ongar, he's only 20.

My bad, sorry

Nijmegen

Remind me wrote: »

Councillors are entitled to claim expenses on top of the €17,000 allowance. Throw in the salary of a full time job like teaching or lecturing (not saying councillors in those positions do no council work!!) and as Chuck says it’s a nice chunk off your mortgage.

As I say, I think you're completely discounting the actual costs they have. Expenses are pretty limited - you might get fuel to attend an official event but certainly not to attend every little fair or school fete (or funerals ) etc. And most events you attend you will be seen to be putting your hand in your pocket or get ticked off as a miser. Then those leaflets and election posters don't pay for themselves. I doubt any Councillor who does the work makes a profit on it and I'd say quite the opposite when you consider the time, people just not respecting it in particular and calling you all hours of the day. Again maybe one or two just coast it but for most being a Councillor is a genuine labour.

Remind me

Nijmegen wrote: »

As I say, I think you're completely discounting the actual costs they have. Expenses are pretty limited - you might get fuel to attend an official event but certainly not to attend every little fair or school fete (or funerals ) etc. And most events you attend you will be seen to be putting your hand in your pocket or get ticked off as a miser. Then those leaflets and election posters don't pay for themselves. I doubt any Councillor who does the work makes a profit on it and I'd say quite the opposite when you consider the time, people just not respecting it in particular and calling you all hours of the day. Again maybe one or two just coast it but for most being a Councillor is a genuine labour.

Presume party affiliated candidates have their posters and leaflets etc... paid by HQ?