The D15 Local Election Thread

Caranica

chucknorris wrote: »

Possible alright. FF have lost a councillor seat in Castleknock as they had two and nearly had three last time out. The FF vote in Mulhuddart and Ongar was very poor compared to previous times. Add it all up and Chambers may have a challenge on his hands in the GE if the Greens and FG do well.

There will be a strong anti Chambers movement from the repeal side. Remember he voted against holding a referendum in the first place. An anti democratic person put in place by democracy will face a backlash.

Zaph

Caranica wrote: »

There will be a strong anti Chambers movement from the repeal side. Remember he voted against holding a referendum in the first place. An anti democratic person put in place by democracy will face a backlash.

I also think a lot of people are still unhappy that he was selected ahead of David McGuiness. There weren't enough to prevent him from being elected last time, but add in his stance on the referendum and all of a sudden you have potentially a large enough anti-Chambers cohort that might give him a few sleepless nights come the election.

Larbre34

Is there enough critical mass within the Cumann to agitate for Chambers' deselection or would national exec override it?

Agree he is in major bother if he stands.

Grudaire

Zaph wrote: »

I also think a lot of people are still unhappy that he was selected ahead of David McGuiness. There weren't enough to prevent him from being elected last time, but add in his stance on the referendum and all of a sudden you have potentially a large enough anti-Chambers cohort that might give him a few sleepless nights come the election.

That would cheer me up no end if it was the case, but I feel like there's a FF seat from Castleknock votes alone, and I don't see Leo winning those votes the way he's running the country..

Could be an interesting battle between FF, Labour, Greens, socialists and the Shinners of you're right though :-D

Zaph

I just had a look at the last election results. Only Leo got more first preference votes than Chambers, with Ruth Coppinger and Joan Burton 4-500 votes further back. We can take it that Leo's guaranteed one seat, and Coppinger's vote will probably hold up. Assuming the election is sooner rather than later, it could at long last be Roderic's time to shine and he finally gets his Dáil seat. That leave Chambers, Burton (if she runs), and most likely Paul Donnelly (assuming SF don't parachute someone in ahead of him) slugging it out for the final seat. FG were the only party to run two candidates last time out, but Catherine Noone didn't add a lot to Leo's campaign, and if anything probably split the vote enough to stop him being elected on the first count as he was only 150 votes short of the quota. I would expect a bit of a bounce back from SF in a general election compared to the locals, if only because turnout would probably be higher, so I'd guess that Donnelly could be the one to benefit should there be a backlash against Chambers. Burton is 70 now, so she mightn't have any interest in another campaign, so lack of voter recognition for whoever replaces her will probably help the others pick up votes.

Remind me

Think the only safe seat is Leo, it’s a fight after that especially is FG try get Currie in.

Chambers has been doing good work in relation to Defence matters which has come to a head.

The Mags Murray post is bonkers, if she was trying to seek a council seat this time out she might have a grievance with chambers for not canvassing with her but she has done F all last 5 years and nothing last 5 weeks in the build up so no one to blame bar herself.

Caranica

I expect Emer Currie will be a very active and very visible Councillor from the get go. Which is a good thing for D15, we've had too many passenger councillors in recent years

Hurrache

Grudaire wrote: »

That would cheer me up no end if it was the case, but I feel like there's a FF seat from Castleknock votes alone, and I don't see Leo winning those votes the way he's running the country..

FG gained seats in the local elections despite all what has happened so I don't think people feel they're doing too bad.

Remind me wrote: »

Chambers has been doing good work in relation to Defence matters which has come to a head.

I don't think the electorate are too concerned about such a thing, certainly not enough to earn him votes outside of people in defence. What defence matters anyway?

jack presley

Any sign of the parties getting up off their arses and taking down their posters? I know they have till Friday but why leave it till the last minute? Loads still around Mulhuddart this evening.

Caranica

jack presley wrote: »

Any sign of the parties getting up off their arses and taking down their posters? I know they have till Friday but why leave it till the last minute? Loads still around Mulhuddart this evening.

Most of Mary McCamley's around here were gone by Monday morning but I spotted one rogue one last night. All the others are still up

Remind me

Hurrache wrote: »

FG gained seats in the local elections despite all what has happened so I don't think people feel they're doing too bad.



I don't think the electorate are too concerned about such a thing, certainly not enough to earn him votes outside of people in defence. What defence matters anyway?

I’d agree it doesn’t resonate with most.

He has been very vocal in the Dail and committees in relation to the current conditions the defence forces are working in.

For me next election is Leo and 3 from Burton (definitely running?), Coppinger, Chambers, Currie and Donnelly.

Think Donnelly will really struggle after the last election and SF’s current woes.

blanch152

Remind me wrote: »

I’d agree it doesn’t resonate with most.

He has been very vocal in the Dail and committees in relation to the current conditions the defence forces are working in.

For me next election is Leo and 3 from Burton (definitely running?), Coppinger, Chambers, Currie and Donnelly.

Think Donnelly will really struggle after the last election and SF’s current woes.

O'Gorman had nearly two quotas in Castleknock, Whooley got elected in Ongar, and who knows if they had run a candidate in Blanch/Mulhuddart. I wouldn't rule him out, certainly think he has more chance than Donnelly.

Zaph

I agree, Roderic has to be considered a serious contender at the next general election. I certainly see him winning a seat ahead of a second FG seat for Currie.

chucknorris

Remind me wrote: »

I’d agree it doesn’t resonate with most.

He has been very vocal in the Dail and committees in relation to the current conditions the defence forces are working in.

For me next election is Leo and 3 from Burton (definitely running?), Coppinger, Chambers, Currie and Donnelly.

Think Donnelly will really struggle after the last election and SF’s current woes.

Chambers has support no doubt, but if all things comes together, he could be getting it from all sides. You can be sure of one thing, between now and the next nine months or so, will will ramp up the leaflets and they'll be paid for drops and when a GE comes along, the posters will be everywhere. no expense spared.

Nijmegen

Chambers will get selected, because he's a spokesperson and all that, and his chances of election are strong because there is a firm FF vote that hung in there even through the worst of 2009, 2011 etc. In their base of Castleknock in LE09 they won 19% of the vote there, only marginally less than FG. Obviously GE11 was a particular circumstance with Brian Lenihan, but they still won 16%. 21% in the resulting by-election after his death, and 17.5% in the 2014 by election after Patrick Nulty resigned, and 16.5% then in 2016 with a new candidate. There is a transfer dead zone to Sinn Fein no matter what they get that creates the space for 16-17% to be the place to go forward from and win a seat.

FG with Varadkar has been hitting 22%, with him as Taoiseach does that go up to 25%+ ? Maybe. It's still not nearly enough to get 2 candidates in a 4 seater with a field of lefties being eliminated and transferring beneath you.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if DW just gets the same result again, with the caveat being that if Joan Burton was to retire - which you haven't really seen signs of in her campaigning and activity - it'd blow the field open a little. Greens could spike the solidarity seat perhaps, given their LE performance.

chucknorris

Nijmegen wrote: »

Chambers will get selected, because he's a spokesperson and all that, and his chances of election are strong because there is a firm FF vote that hung in there even through the worst of 2009, 2011 etc. In their base of Castleknock in LE09 they won 19% of the vote there, only marginally less than FG. Obviously GE11 was a particular circumstance with Brian Lenihan, but they still won 16%. 21% in the resulting by-election after his death, and 17.5% in the 2014 by election after Patrick Nulty resigned, and 16.5% then in 2016 with a new candidate. There is a transfer dead zone to Sinn Fein no matter what they get that creates the space for 16-17% to be the place to go forward from and win a seat.

FG with Varadkar has been hitting 22%, with him as Taoiseach does that go up to 25%+ ? Maybe. It's still not nearly enough to get 2 candidates in a 4 seater with a field of lefties being eliminated and transferring beneath you.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if DW just gets the same result again, with the caveat being that if Joan Burton was to retire - which you haven't really seen signs of in her campaigning and activity - it'd blow the field open a little. Greens could spike the solidarity seat perhaps, given their LE performance.

NO doubt about that - he also should get elected but not a given.

Polar101

jack presley wrote: »

Any sign of the parties getting up off their arses and taking down their posters? I know they have till Friday but why leave it till the last minute? Loads still around Mulhuddart this evening.

I saw Tania Doyle taking down her own posters (with the help of someone else) just now in Hartstown. She didn't have quite as many posters as the FF/FG crowd anyway, so I'd guess she'll be done on time.

LorelaiG

Someone has left behind a load of cable ties and I'm not sure who, around the Ladyswell Road/Samastown Avenue area.

jack presley

LorelaiG wrote: »

Someone has left behind a load of cable ties and I'm not sure who, around the Ladyswell Road/Samastown Avenue area.

They've all left loads of cable ties, they always do.

Less posters around Mulhuddart today but yer one Puma Rane from FG doesn't seem to have started taking any of hers down yet.

LorelaiG

jack presley wrote: »

They've all left loads of cable ties, they always do.

Less posters around Mulhuddart today but yer one Puma Rane from FG doesn't seem to have started taking any of hers down yet.

She's taken lots down around where I mentioned

jack presley

LorelaiG wrote: »

She's taken lots down around where I mentioned

It was around 5:30 when I was driving around so maybe they've been taken down since then but around Ballycoolin and on Church Road they were still up then.

Caranica

Tomorrow is the deadline but with it being a Bank Holiday weekend there won't be any enforcement action taken until Tuesday

oLoonatic

Alot were taken down last night it would seem. Kavanagh doesnt seem bothered taking them down, and harrold has loads still around the city.

Maurice Yeltsin

oLoonatic wrote: »

Alot were taken down last night it would seem. Kavanagh doesnt seem bothered taking them down, and harrold has loads still around the city.

Wouldn't be like Harrold's voters not to get off their arse and do some work :pac: The rules don't really apply to left wing candidates anyway. Matt Waine had posters up before the allowed date all over Ongar. Was delighted he didn't get in, typical abrasive communist, not to mention his lunatic comments about the tricolour being offensive.

chucknorris wrote: »

S


Cllr. Sandra Kavanagh (Solidarity) gone and delighted. no,no,no, no to absolutely everything.
.

Can't believe the good people of the area didn't rate the professionalism of a middle aged candidate who has her occupation on Facebook listed as "full time mad bitch".

Yes, seriously.

Maurice Yeltsin

blanch152 wrote: »

The problem for Solidarity/PBP/Socialists or whatever is that they are against everything and complain that someone else should fix the problem. They don't like when people get on with it and fix the problems themselves.

If people get together and cut the grass outside their houses, they are against that because the government should do it.

This works at a time when people are down and out and unemployed etc. and things are really bad. But once society recovers and people want to start helping themselves, the likes of Coppinger don't know how to respond.

Main issue with Solidarity is hypocrisy. Demand action on the availability of affordable rents while campaigning to loosen our already lax enough migration policies, despite their disastrous effect on the housing crisis. Attacking the Catholic Church (rightly) while aligning themselves with people like Ibrahim Halawa. Pretending to care about women's rights. They are a gang of self hating unemployable losers for the most part.

On that note, have Waine or Coppinger ever passed a single comment on the issues of muggings etc in Ongar and Tyrellstown? Genuine question. If a gang of white youths were going around targeting non nationals they would (rightly) be up in arms. I'd be interested to know if the incidents that have allegedly been happening lately have been addressed by them or filed under not with a 20 ft bargepole am I touching that.

I've followed this mob long enough to find that they tend to reserve their outrage for socioeconomic groups they regard as having birthright privilege (Paddy Jackson, George Hook, to name but two) while ignoring any similar such alleged cases from groups they deem immune to criticism.