Limerick Local Elections

s7ryf3925pivug

Looks like O'Donovan will get in after getting over 40% of the PBP candidate's transfers.

s7ryf3925pivug

Johnny_BravoIII wrote: »

Well then maybe I stand corrected. Maybe they had planned to appeal to the PBP electorate with the food expenses stunt?

Probably was a big factor in the transfer. No idea if that was the plan. EOD's name wasn't directly attached to the story, and her campaign has been very positive - so kinda funny that she ends up benefitting from the negative approach. The two associated with the story polled terribly.

jonski

Where is everyone following this ? LL ? twitter ?

s7ryf3925pivug

https://www.limerickleader.ie/news/news/419444/live-limerick-election-count.html

I think that's the most timely public source right now.

jonski

Looks like City East is done and dusted .

Insect Overlord

Full recount (requested by Elenora Hogan) ordered for Limerick City West.

JamesBond2010

Looks like breaking election rules does help u get elected.

Mc Love

Corinne Limited Page wrote: »

She did better as an independent in 2014.

I think a seat will go to O'Donovan or MacGabhann. I reckon there would be enough preferences from one to the other to push one in. MacGabhann is a bit ahead at the moment but I think O'Donovan will get more transfers, unless she ends up being one of the next to go... I'd like to see both get in but I doubt they will.

Looks like you were right! Interesting to see Hogan losing her seat to her younger party colleague.

Michael Sheehan got there in the end in City East and O'Dea crept in

JamesBond2010 wrote: »

Looks like breaking election rules does help u get elected.

Surely there'll be some follow up investigation

Poxyshamrock

Mc Love wrote: »

Looks like you were right! Interesting to see Hogan losing her seat to her younger party colleague.

Michael Sheehan got there in the end in City East and O'Dea crept in



Surely there'll be some follow up investigation

Hogan was co-opted in the first place and in my opinion did SFA since she got her seat. As a city centre business owner, she didn’t do much to help it.

munstergirl

Results

FG 14
FF 12
Everyone else 14

Cookiemunster

JamesBond2010 wrote: »

Looks like breaking election rules does help u get elected.

He only got 697 first preference votes and got elected as the 7th candidate on 990 votes which was 400 short of the quota, so the scale of alleged wrong doings were well overblown. Also 400 people who didn't vote for him gave him the preferences that got him elected.

munstergirl wrote: »

Results

FG 14
FF 12
Everyone else 14

The final total is.

FG 15 +3
FF 12 -
Ind 5 +2
Lab 3 -
SF 2 -4
GP 2 +2
SD 1 +1

It's not really surprising that FG and FF have the majority between them. That's what the polls have been telling us and the picture is the same nationally. Probably the only surprise is that FG picked up so many seats in West Limerick.

It's interesting to see the hard left basically wiped out. SF lose 4 seats and the AAA candidates are wiped out. I guess it shows that the last election was a protest vote rather than any long term swing.

stefanovich

Cookiemunster wrote: »

He only got 697 first preference votes and got elected as the 7th candidate on 990 votes which was 400 short of the quota, so the scale of alleged wrong doings were well overblown. Also 400 people who didn't vote for him gave him the preferences that got him elected.

There was a half story printed by the Limerick Post about a large number of suspicious registrations in the Limerick West area too.

Any wrong doing, if found, should be dealt with harshly.

munstergirl

"Probably the only surprise is that FG picked up so many seats in West Limerick."

The farmers I guess.

Cookiemunster

stefanovich wrote: »

There was a half story printed by the Limerick Post about a large number of suspicious registrations in the Limerick West area too.

Any wrong doing, if found, should be dealt with harshly.

A half story is a long way from proof. 3000 people were said to have registered late in Limerick City West. He got 697 first preference votes and another 300 gave him preferences. That's a long way from 3000 and is about what a poster on here said before the election that he was expected to get.

I agree that any wrong doing should be punished, but there needs to be actual proof, not hearsay.

stefanovich

Cookiemunster wrote: »

A half story is a long way from proof. 3000 people were said to have registered late in Limerick City West. He got 697 first preference votes and another 300 gave him preferences. That's a long way from 3000 and is about what a poster on here said before the election that he was expected to get.

I agree that any wrong doing should be punished, but there needs to be actual proof, not hearsay.

Actual proof, yes, I agree. There's definitely smoke though, enough to warrant an investigation. If all above board then great.

If not, there has to be consequences.

Cordell

If any consequences there will be mainly for the ones that fraudulently registered, not for him. Even if they can find exactly 697 fraudulently registered voters that voted and that have the ethnic background that makes it obvious that they voted for him, it still can not be legally proven.
So he will take his seat.

stefanovich

Cordell wrote: »

If any consequences there will be mainly for the ones that fraudulently registered, not for him. Even if they can find exactly 697 voters that voted and have the ethnic background that makes it obvious that they voted for him, it still can not be legally proven.
So he will take his seat.

In general I think elections need to be more secure full stop.

The Specialist

Johnny_BravoIII wrote: »

Do you believe climate change is real?

There’s probably some change in climate just as there has been over millions of years - I don’t buy in to this climate hysteria that’s so prevalent at the moment. Wheeling out dead eyed children to pontificate to adults and school kids going out on strike is just so ****ing cringey and ridiculous that I can’t take it seriously, or anyone who buys in that ****e.

Little Ireland here is going to have **** all impact while the likes of China, India, US and African nations continue their pollutive practices - it doesn’t make a bit of difference here. And we both know full well that any carbon taxes will be redirected to the black hole where all our taxes go - I wouldn’t trust a single of the shower of pricks in government to redirect them where needed (example being motor tax being siphoned in to Irish water the last time they tried).

When the worlds top polluters start doing something about their countries then we can talk about climate - until then it’s hysterical irrelevant bollix and anybody who thinks otherwise is a fool to put it quite bluntly.

Kenny B

The Specialist wrote: »

There’s probably some change in climate just as there has been over millions of years - I don’t buy in to this climate hysteria that’s so prevalent at the moment. Wheeling out dead eyed children to pontificate to adults and school kids going out on strike is just so ****ing cringey and ridiculous that I can’t take it seriously, or anyone who buys in that ****e.

Little Ireland here is going to have **** all impact while the likes of China, India, US and African nations continue their pollutive practices - it doesn’t make a bit of difference here. And we both know full well that any carbon taxes will be redirected to the black hole where all our taxes go - I wouldn’t trust a single of the shower of pricks in government to redirect them where needed (example being motor tax being siphoned in to Irish water the last time they tried).

When the worlds top polluters start doing something about their countries then we can talk about climate - until then it’s hysterical irrelevant bollix and anybody who thinks otherwise is a fool to put it quite bluntly.

The same childish arguments were made before the Plastic Bag levy and Banning smoking in Pubs & the workplace,

You can believe we are an insignificant people but at times great ideas will be copied world wide,

I could say, think a little bigger but in your case how about starting with Just Think.

Johnny_BravoIII

The Specialist wrote: »

There’s probably some change in climate just as there has been over millions of years - I don’t buy in to this climate hysteria that’s so prevalent at the moment. Wheeling out dead eyed children to pontificate to adults and school kids going out on strike is just so ****ing cringey and ridiculous that I can’t take it seriously, or anyone who buys in that ****e.

Little Ireland here is going to have **** all impact while the likes of China, India, US and African nations continue their pollutive practices - it doesn’t make a bit of difference here. And we both know full well that any carbon taxes will be redirected to the black hole where all our taxes go - I wouldn’t trust a single of the shower of pricks in government to redirect them where needed (example being motor tax being siphoned in to Irish water the last time they tried).

When the worlds top polluters start doing something about their countries then we can talk about climate - until then it’s hysterical irrelevant bollix and anybody who thinks otherwise is a fool to put it quite bluntly.

Lots of new friends for you over here: https://www.tfes.org/

If you wish to challenge your current thinking, here you go https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

The Specialist

Johnny_BravoIII wrote: »

Lots of new friends for you over here: https://www.tfes.org/

If you wish to challenge your current thinking, here you go https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

Clever man with your flat earth society dig there - typical of the hysteria these days that the likes of you would downplay anyone with an opposing viewpoint or the wrong think.

You go save the planet if you want pal, I've made my view clear on what I think of this.

c.p.w.g.w

Does anyone know the spolit ballot number for each Limerick area? I heard that there was 100,000 ballots in Dublin that needed to be ruled on for whatever reason

iguana

Cookiemunster wrote: »

It's interesting to see the hard left basically wiped out. SF lose 4 seats and the AAA candidates are wiped out. I guess it shows that the last election was a protest vote rather than any long term swing.

Are we actually looking at the left vote (hard left gone with big SF and Labour losses) having switched to the Greens, while the swing voters who are more traditional/conservative have just had the same bit of a switch up between FF/FG as they normally do. I haven't looked at any breakdown of voting patterns but that's what the results suggest to me. I do think it's a shame because something that I have never been more aware of than when following the utter clusterfuçk that in the British political landscape is that our PR system and need to meet quotas to form governments has given us a power structure that only works through quite a strong degree of consensus building. I'll be the first to criticise the way our government works and acts when I feel they get it wrong but I also respect and am grateful for the way that results tend to come through compromise between various sides (who rarely admit that is what they are doing even though that is the result.) It keeps us away from any form of extremism and while centre right parties usually hold the balance of power we are socially liberal, have an excellent social system and much better opportunities for social mobility than exist in countries with FPTP systems of government. So seeing so many parties that represent a particular side crushed weakens us all, imo.

I also suspect that this double election & referendum & plebiscite has suffered from a bit of voter fatigue. I'm normally quite political but have definitely felt a real sense of 'couldn't be bothered' about voting last week and had to force myself to sit down for an hour or so and work out exactly how to choose my order of preferences and how to vote in the plebiscite. The referendum was the only one I had any strong opinion on and that just felt like a formality. I have never felt less engaged with my vote. An awful lot of people I spoke to said the same and I know people who normally vote but either didn't bother or only voted in some and left the other sheets blank or who would normally exercise their full vote with a full ballot of preferences just going to 3 or 4 this time out.

FutureGuy

No harm to see far left and far right parties struggle.

iguana

FutureGuy wrote: »

No harm to see far left and far right parties struggle.

We don't really have any far right parties who have ever had much traction and the main reason the hard left ever have had is because our two main parties are centre right here and the centre left Labour has never been anything more powerful than a minor opposition partner. And they have just managed to even worsen their downward trend this time out. It's not just our hard left who have been wiped out, the centre left have too.

Thinking about it, I wonder if Brexit and NI has played a part. The parties that suffered heavily are the ones who have been shouting the loudest about never accepting a hard border. And while I don't think there are more than a handful of people in the Republic who want a hard border and almost everyone would advocate avoiding it if at all necessary because we know how awful it would be. I wonder if most of us recognise that with a No Deal Brexit, a hard border may become essential.

munstergirl

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Does anyone know the spolit ballot number for each Limerick area? I heard that there was 100,000 ballots in Dublin that needed to be ruled on for whatever reason

Spoiled votes: 1412
source limerick leader

osarusan

2014:

FF 13
FG 12
SF 6
Lab 3
PbP 3
Ind 3


2019

FG 14 (+2)
FF 12 (-1)
Ind 6 (+3)
Lab 3 (+/-0)
SF 2 (-4)
GP 2 (+2)
SD 1 (+1)


Main points here would be the FG increase, which isn't something replicated across the country, and the SF drop, which is something of a trend across the country.

I'd guess that GP and SD votes come from what used to the PbP voters, although that's simplifying things I know.

More independents means more people are just concerned with purely local issues? Or just sick of all the parties? Frankie Daly ex-Labour also.

OfTheMarsWongs

JamesBond2010 wrote: »

Looks like breaking election rules does help u get elected.

Gonna reserve judgement on the candidate. The amount of candidates that had their posters up on electrical poles then suggested they may have been stolen leads me to think that he wasn’t the only one unfamiliar with election rules etc

s7ryf3925pivug

Some areas had a very selective storm, with regard to the posters that went missing.
We had a canvasser blatantly lie about his candidate's position on abortion.
I heard that sitting councillors agreed not to put up posters. Most of them went ahead and put up posters.

Lots of stupid petty infractions. But most of them were by canvassers, not the candidates themselves.

JamesBond2010

OfTheMarsWongs wrote: »

Gonna reserve judgement on the candidate. The amount of candidates that had their posters up on electrical poles then suggested they may have been stolen leads me to think that he wasn’t the only one unfamiliar with election rules etc

By the way I never said which candidate :p