How long before Irish reunification?

jh79

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

This is a little bit bizarre. A March for Irish unity. In Scotland? We aren’t doing that here. You’d think they’d be marching for Scottish independence no? Anyone know the background to this?
Wasn’t aware of any Irish unity groups in Scotland at all.
https://twitter.com/daily_record/status/1167536495428800512?s=21

Rangers v Celtic tomorrow.

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

jh79 wrote: »

Rangers v Celtic tomorrow.

Seems much deeper than that. Reading Twitter it seem like it was a group from Scandinavia (???) posing as the fake ira Saoradh

Why Scotland though. So bizarre

downcow

dd973 wrote: »

How would you think it would pan out if there was a Border Poll>Reunification regarding Loyalist extremists? Especially if they didn't have the hidden hand of British Secret Services or the British Army on their side. I don't think they would have been anywhere near as organised or effective with their (largely directed at civilians) murder campaign without state assistance.

I don't think a Basque style separatism campaign would make much sense as it would only worsen their situation on the island, the only people who'd seriously cross the North Channel to take their side would be Scottish Chavs of the Orange persuasion and a smaller number of English ultra-right wing crazies, again, hardly people who'd make a state with a standing police force and army quake in their boots.
.

Just two wee points on above.
1). Would the list of victims of the ira not suggest their campaign was largely directed at civilians
2). I don’t recall many of your beloved ROI citizens crossing the border to show any interest except a few of the Irish ultra right wing crazies of the republican movement

Snap

So yes I probably agree with you

Odhinn

janfebmar wrote: »

Which state are you talking about? The state where the minority increased in numbers or the state where the minority decreased in numbers?

Divert all you want. The armed struggle came about to the same kind of refusal to address real complaints and answering peaceful protests with violence.

Junkyard Tom

30-40 years

downcow wrote: »

1). Would the list of victims of the ira not suggest their campaign was largely directed at civilians

No. A large majority of PIRA victims were in the RUC/UDR/BA.

Junkyard Tom

30-40 years

dd973 wrote: »

How would you think it would pan out if there was a Border Poll>Reunification regarding Loyalist extremists ... they would have been anywhere near as organised or effective with their (largely directed at civilians) murder campaign without state assistance.

What exactly would they want out of it? Unionist cantons run by the UVF drug dealers? They'd be welcome to them.

downcow

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

No. A large majority of PIRA victims were in the RUC/UDR/BA.

Just remind me roughly how many civilians v security forces they murdered ????

Junkyard Tom

30-40 years

downcow wrote: »

Just remind me roughly how many civilians v security forces they murdered ????

http://www.wesleyjohnston.com/users/ireland/past/troubles/troubles_stats.html

blanch152

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

http://www.wesleyjohnston.com/users/ireland/past/troubles/troubles_stats.html

If you define civilian reservists as security forces, then you are correct.

janfebmar

And pensioners who were retired public servants, they were "legitimate targets" too if they had happened to work for police or army at some stage in their lives, according to unelected paramilitaries.

downcow

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

http://www.wesleyjohnston.com/users/ireland/past/troubles/troubles_stats.html

I'd be interested to see what they classify as British Security Forces? and indeed Republican and loyalist?
they are incredibly broad terms leaving the author to draw the lines

I stand to be corrected but i understood the IRA killed more catholics than anyone else - not how the graph looks. and i dont believe for one moment that more than half those they killed were British Security Forces

Dytalus

15-20 years

downcow wrote: »

I'd be interested to see what they classify as British Security Forces? and indeed Republican and loyalist?
they are incredibly broad terms leaving the author to draw the lines

I stand to be corrected but i understood the IRA killed more catholics than anyone else - not how the graph looks. and i dont believe for one moment that more than half those they killed were British Security Forces

The stats are more broken down here, specifying whether they were current or ex members of each organisation at the time of their death. It does a better job of illustrating what was regarded as "British Security Forces" by breaking it down into the different organisations that made up the British State's forces in Northern Ireland.

According to Wikipedia, the overall number of "British Army" deaths was 757 (including the RDR, RIR and the Territorial Army). Taken from the CAIN site for each of those bodies, of the 757 deaths 712 were active members of their respective organisations at the time of their death (ie, are not marked as 'ex-' on the CAIN site).

You may not believe that the IRA's victims were mostly British Security Forces but it is true. The PIRA's typical MO was to call in advance of bombings in civilian areas specifically to evacuate civilians (the 1996 Manchester bombing is one of the most catastrophic and damaging terror attacks in human history, and is exceeded only by 9/11 and the 1993 Bishopsgate bombing....but nobody was killed. Bishopsgate was even more disastrous, and also a PIRA bombing, and only caused one death despite its size). Their goal was to make British occupation of the six counties untenable and expensive, not to actively murder civilians. Most of their attacks were not like the responding loyalist attacks, which appeared much more focus on killing Catholics and Irish regardless of status (there is an argument that the indiscriminate killing of civilians by Loyalist parties was due to the uncertainty over who was a member of, or helping, the PIRA. It is, imo, a weak argument but it's been made all the same). It's important to note that despite their lower number of attacks, loyalist paramilitaries killed over a hundred more civilians than the PIRA (878 vs 721). 85% of the loyalist victims were civilians compared to 35% of the PIRA's victims.

The PIRA's catastrophic number of civilian casualties was due to the number, and nature, of their attacks. On cannot use bombs as a primary method of violence against an occupier without expecting civilian casualties. Civilians may not have been their primary targets, but they were definitely deemed "acceptable casualties" to PIRA leadership over the course of the Troubles.

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

The extremes really losing ground. Great to see.

https://twitter.com/sarmcdonnell/status/1168496622164160512?s=21

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

The extremes really losing ground. Great to see.

https://twitter.com/sarmcdonnell/status/1168496622164160512?s=21

blanch152

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The extremes really losing ground. Great to see.

https://twitter.com/sarmcdonnell/status/1168496622164160512?s=21

Great news indeed.

DUP down 7%
SF down 4%
UUP down 1%
SDLP down 4%

Unionists: 38%
Nationalist: 33%
Others: 29%

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

blanch152 wrote: »

Great news indeed.

DUP down 7%
SF down 4%
UUP down 1%
SDLP down 4%

Unionists: 38%
Nationalist: 33%
Others: 29%

The sharp drop in declaring as unionist in such a short time per the graph is telling.

downcow

Dytalus wrote: »

The stats are more broken down here, specifying whether they were current or ex members of each organisation at the time of their death. It does a better job of illustrating what was regarded as "British Security Forces" by breaking it down into the different organisations that made up the British State's forces in Northern Ireland.

According to Wikipedia, the overall number of "British Army" deaths was 757 (including the RDR, RIR and the Territorial Army). Taken from the CAIN site for each of those bodies, of the 757 deaths 712 were active members of their respective organisations at the time of their death (ie, are not marked as 'ex-' on the CAIN site).

You may not believe that the IRA's victims were mostly British Security Forces but it is true. The PIRA's typical MO was to call in advance of bombings in civilian areas specifically to evacuate civilians (the 1996 Manchester bombing is one of the most catastrophic and damaging terror attacks in human history, and is exceeded only by 9/11 and the 1993 Bishopsgate bombing....but nobody was killed. Bishopsgate was even more disastrous, and also a PIRA bombing, and only caused one death despite its size). Their goal was to make British occupation of the six counties untenable and expensive, not to actively murder civilians. Most of their attacks were not like the responding loyalist attacks, which appeared much more focus on killing Catholics and Irish regardless of status (there is an argument that the indiscriminate killing of civilians by Loyalist parties was due to the uncertainty over who was a member of, or helping, the PIRA. It is, imo, a weak argument but it's been made all the same). It's important to note that despite their lower number of attacks, loyalist paramilitaries killed over a hundred more civilians than the PIRA (878 vs 721). 85% of the loyalist victims were civilians compared to 35% of the PIRA's victims.

The PIRA's catastrophic number of civilian casualties was due to the number, and nature, of their attacks. On cannot use bombs as a primary method of violence against an occupier without expecting civilian casualties. Civilians may not have been their primary targets, but they were definitely deemed "acceptable casualties" to PIRA leadership over the course of the Troubles.

I agree with about 50% of what you are saying. The link you post is total deaths. is there a similar breakdown for republican murders, which was the claim i was questioning?

blinding

10-15 years

Looks like a General Election in the Uk .

I love General Elections .

Dytalus

15-20 years

downcow wrote: »

I agree with about 50% of what you are saying. The link you post is total deaths. is there a similar breakdown for republican murders, which was the claim i was questioning?

There is, handily enough, although the resulting table isn't linkable itself as you have to input exactly what crosstab you're looking for before it generates. In this case, I crossed "Status" (the status of the individual killed) with "Organisation Summary" (which lists who is responsible for the death). The result is attached to this post.

It lists, under Republican Paramilitary:

• 488 British Army deaths
• 7 Territorial Army deaths
• 191 Ulster Defence Regiment deaths
• 7 Royal Irish Regiment deaths
• 288 Royal Ulster Constabulary
• 4 Royal Air Force deaths
• 2 Royal Navy deaths
• 40 ex-UDR deaths
• 5 ex-British Army deaths
• 18 ex-RUC deaths

For a total of 1,050 deaths of former or active members of the British Security Forces. I'll note this is different from the figure in my first post, as my first post did not include the Royal Ulster Constabulary - it being part of the judicial forces and not the British Army. I've included it now since I want to compare all British Security Forces killed, not simply the army.

Total deaths attributed to the various Republican Paramilitaries (PIRA, rIRA, etc) is 2,057. Former or active British security personnel account for 51% of deaths. Civilian deaths (including persons identified as "Civilian Political Activist") at the hands of the various Republican paramilitaries accounts for 697+24 = 721. 35% of all republican attributed deaths. Irish Security Forces account for a further 10 deaths (9 Gardaí and 1 Irish Army soldier) for 0.5%. Leaving the remaining roughly (I rounded some decimals) 13.5% to be paramilitary members (either Republican or Loyalist, I'm not fussed about doing the maths to figure out exactly how many of each because there's like a dozen organisations involved).

I can, if you wish, get a further breakdown of which Paramilitary was responsible for how many Army/Police/Civilian deaths. The CAIN site is pretty fantastic.

To recreate the form yourself to check my accuracy, head to this page and enter "Status" in the first dropdown field and "Organisation Summary" in the second. If you want a breakdown of individual paramilitaries and organisations along the top, put in "Organisation" instead of "Organisation Summary" - although that makes the table ridiculously wide and very difficult to read.

downcow

Dytalus wrote: »

There is, handily enough, although the resulting table isn't linkable itself as you have to input exactly what crosstab you're looking for before it generates. In this case, I crossed "Status" (the status of the individual killed) with "Organisation Summary" (which lists who is responsible for the death). The result is attached to this post.

It lists, under Republican Paramilitary:

• 488 British Army deaths
• 7 Territorial Army deaths
• 191 Ulster Defence Regiment deaths
• 7 Royal Irish Regiment deaths
• 288 Royal Ulster Constabulary
• 4 Royal Air Force deaths
• 2 Royal Navy deaths
• 40 ex-UDR deaths
• 5 ex-British Army deaths
• 18 ex-RUC deaths

For a total of 1,050 deaths of former or active members of the British Security Forces. I'll note this is different from the figure in my first post, as my first post did not include the Royal Ulster Constabulary - it being part of the judicial forces and not the British Army. I've included it now since I want to compare all British Security Forces killed, not simply the army.

Total deaths attributed to the various Republican Paramilitaries (PIRA, rIRA, etc) is 2,057. Former or active British security personnel account for 51% of deaths. Civilian deaths (including persons identified as "Civilian Political Activist") at the hands of the various Republican paramilitaries accounts for 697+24 = 721. 35% of all republican attributed deaths. Irish Security Forces account for a further 10 deaths (9 Gardaí and 1 Irish Army soldier) for 0.5%. Leaving the remaining roughly (I rounded some decimals) 13.5% to be paramilitary members (either Republican or Loyalist, I'm not fussed about doing the maths to figure out exactly how many of each because there's like a dozen organisations involved).

I can, if you wish, get a further breakdown of which Paramilitary was responsible for how many Army/Police/Civilian deaths. The CAIN site is pretty fantastic.

To recreate the form yourself to check my accuracy, head to this page and enter "Status" in the first dropdown field and "Organisation Summary" in the second. If you want a breakdown of individual paramilitaries and organisations along the top, put in "Organisation" instead of "Organisation Summary" - although that makes the table ridiculously wide and very difficult to read.

This is a very crude measure. It seems to regard ex security forces as non-civilians and it assumes some terrorists are civillians.
I have just check the info on 3 neighbours killed and they are all wrong.
one was ex security and he is down as civillian (which is they way it should be but others are classed as ex security)
One is down as civillian when in fact he was an ira godfather
one is down as killed while walking through a park when in fack he had a balaclava on and was aiming a rifle at a police patrol about to shoot when the army shot him.
thats just the three i checked. so not much confidence in it

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

This is a very crude measure. It seems to regard ex security forces as non-civilians and it assumes some terrorists are civillians.
I have just check the info on 3 neighbours killed and they are all wrong.
one was ex security and he is down as civillian (which is they way it should be but others are classed as ex security)
One is down as civillian when in fact he was an ira godfather
one is down as killed while walking through a park when in fack he had a balaclava on and was aiming a rifle at a police patrol about to shoot when the army shot him.
thats just the three i checked. so not much confidence in it

Are we going to be presented with any evidence or links to prove your doubts? Or are you just going to handwave stuff away because it doesn't match your 'perceptions'?

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

Blinding amount of facts there eh DC?

FrancieBrady

Going back to the 'we are all Irish with different identities' debate.

Here once again is a Unionist - the UUP's Reg Empey - proving my point.

The party's former leader, Lord Empey, who took the lead in developing the proposals, told the Press Association his party had presented an "Irish solution to an Irish problem".

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49545492

Dytalus

15-20 years

downcow wrote: »

This is a very crude measure. It seems to regard ex security forces as non-civilians and it assumes some terrorists are civillians.
I have just check the info on 3 neighbours killed and they are all wrong.
one was ex security and he is down as civillian (which is they way it should be but others are classed as ex security)
One is down as civillian when in fact he was an ira godfather
one is down as killed while walking through a park when in fack he had a balaclava on and was aiming a rifle at a police patrol about to shoot when the army shot him.
thats just the three i checked. so not much confidence in it

How awfully convenient. You always seem to know someone, personally, that disproves, anecdotally, the evidence that goes against you. The plural of anecdote is not data. Can you provide me with names? I'd like to check myself.

The distinction between ex-Security Forces and "Civilian" is an important one. As is the difference between "civilian" and "civilian political activist". It illustrates the motive behind a killing. A former member of the RUC, or the BA, being killed still serves to illustrate that those who "worked with the enemy" are in danger. Get out of Ireland and you won't be. A political activist could be targeted in order to silence a dissenting viewpoint.

Compare that with "standard" civilian deaths, which (in the case of the PIRA at least) can be used to illustrate the callousness of using bombs as a method of attack (the Shankill Road Bombing was a combination of this recklessness, and poor intelligence resulting in the PIRA hitting civilians instead of their intended targets, the Droppin Well Bombing by the INLA which was just disregarding civilian casualties outright). Or it can be used to show the active, intentional slaughter of innocents who are just 'the wrong type of person' (as in the Annie's Bar Massacre, the Greysteel massacre. I cannot find many large Republican attacks on civilian areas that intended civilian casualties, which fits with their overall strategy. If anyone can source some I'd like to see it.)

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Are we going to be presented with any evidence or links to prove your doubts? Or are you just going to handwave stuff away because it doesn't match your 'perceptions'?

Probably not. I recall the same reaction to my posts in previous threads from DC, I really must stop putting in the effort.

downcow

Dytalus wrote: »

How awfully convenient. You always seem to know someone, personally, that disproves, anecdotally, the evidence that goes against you. The plural of anecdote is not data. Can you provide me with names? I'd like to check myself.

The distinction between ex-Security Forces and "Civilian" is an important one. As is the difference between "civilian" and "civilian political activist". It illustrates the motive behind a killing. A former member of the RUC, or the BA, being killed still serves to illustrate that those who "worked with the enemy" are in danger. Get out of Ireland and you won't be. A political activist could be targeted in order to silence a dissenting viewpoint.

Compare that with "standard" civilian deaths, which (in the case of the PIRA at least) can be used to illustrate the callousness of using bombs as a method of attack (the Shankill Road Bombing was a combination of this recklessness, and poor intelligence resulting in the PIRA hitting civilians instead of their intended targets, the Droppin Well Bombing by the INLA which was just disregarding civilian casualties outright). Or it can be used to show the active, intentional slaughter of innocents who are just 'the wrong type of person' (as in the Annie's Bar Massacre, the Greysteel massacre. I cannot find many large Republican attacks on civilian areas that intended civilian casualties, which fits with their overall strategy. If anyone can source some I'd like to see it.)

.

You only needed to ask.
this is cumbersome to prove but here goes.

So my neighbour Paul Magorrian was shotby the army while wearing a balaclava as he took aim at the RUC as they left his neigbourhood after searches. little did he know that the army were watching him watching them and shot him dead. Now you need evidence:
Cain says "shot while walking through St Malachy's Estate, Castlewellan, Down.https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057975134&page=262
The IRA say "Vol Paul Magorrian Castlewellan, killed on active service 14th August 1974" https://republican-news.org/archive/1998/August27/27ndil.html

Need I bore you with my other neighbours cases? I would imagine this is replicated over many of the thousands of cases that i don't no the nuances about

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

You only needed to ask.
this is cumbersome to prove but here goes.

So my neighbour Paul Magorrian was shotby the army while wearing a balaclava as he took aim at the RUC as they left his neigbourhood after searches. little did he know that the army were watching him watching them and shot him dead. Now you need evidence:
Cain says "shot while walking through St Malachy's Estate, Castlewellan, Down.https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057975134&page=262
The IRA say "Vol Paul Magorrian Castlewellan, killed on active service 14th August 1974" https://republican-news.org/archive/1998/August27/27ndil.html

Need I bore you with my other neighbours cases? I would imagine this is replicated over many of the thousands of cases that i don't no the nuances about

Any reference to Magorrian's death seems to say the 'circumstances are disputed'.

http://194.168.217.3/rawpdffiles/2018/Feb/Feb%2023/INA-007-230218.pdf

Wouldn't be the first time after all that the BA shot people and then said they were armed.

Dytalus

15-20 years

downcow wrote: »

You only needed to ask.
this is cumbersome to prove but here goes.

So my neighbour Paul Magorrian was shotby the army while wearing a balaclava as he took aim at the RUC as they left his neigbourhood after searches. little did he know that the army were watching him watching them and shot him dead. Now you need evidence:
Cain says "shot while walking through St Malachy's Estate, Castlewellan, Down.https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057975134&page=262
The IRA say "Vol Paul Magorrian Castlewellan, killed on active service 14th August 1974" https://republican-news.org/archive/1998/August27/27ndil.html

Need I bore you with my other neighbours cases? I would imagine this is replicated over many of the thousands of cases that i don't no the nuances about

It's a single case. Why would you automatically assume it's replicated over thousands? It's...it's not even the beginnings of a pattern.

And "killed on active service" means he was serving in the IRA. Not necessarily while actively on a mission. Militaries (which the IRA styled itself as) the world over use "active service" to mean "in a war as a member of the armed forces" and KIA means "killed by the enemy". Soldiers resting in an FOB who get mortared are still killed while on active service, even if all they were doing at the time was watching TV.

Surely it'd be in the IRA's interest to disavow his being on a mission - make the British look like bad guys? I can't find any evidence, anywhere, that he was taking aim at anybody. That's a curiously specific piece of information. The most I can find is "disputed circumstances".

And it certainly wouldn't bore me. I enjoy learning info, so if you have other neighbours with deaths you think CAIN does not report accurately, I'd like to hear them.

Ideally with hard evidence but I'll take what I can.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Any reference to Magorrian's death seems to say the 'circumstances are disputed'.

http://194.168.217.3/rawpdffiles/2018/Feb/Feb%2023/INA-007-230218.pdf

Wouldn't be the first time after all that the BA shot people and then said they were armed.

If he was claimed as an active Volunteer by the IRA, he was hardly a citizen?

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

You knew an active IRA member DC?
Really?

Doesn’t seem the type you’d consort with usually.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

If he was claimed as an active Volunteer by the IRA, he was hardly a citizen?

I didn't deny he was in the IRA did I? I must have missed that.

I said the evidence suggests he was killed in 'disputed circumstances'.