How long before Irish reunification?

FrancieBrady

SafeSurfer wrote: »

I think it’s naive to think that a United Ireland would simply mean colouring the 6 counties green on the map, swapping the union jacks for tricolours and painting the post boxes.

Seriously...who is saying/thinking this to begin with?

markodaly

https://www.tcd.ie/Economics/TEP/2019/tep0619.pdf

The best economic outcome for Northern Ireland is one where future UK governments commit to
providing continuing large transfers to Northern Ireland for at least a further decade in return for a
change in regional economic policy aimed at promoting economic growth. Public expenditure needs
to be reallocated from sustaining consumption, especially public services, to investing in education
and infrastructure. While painful initially, it would move the Northern Ireland economy onto a
sustainable growth path.

So, best-case scenario is that we are looking for the UK to do us a favor? Not likely.

Another option, Irish unity, if it involved ending transfers to Northern Ireland, would produce a
dramatic fall in the standard of living there. Alternatively, unification, where Ireland took over
responsibility for the transfers to Northern Ireland, would necessitate a major cut in the standard of
living in Ireland of 5% to 10% in order to allow Northern Ireland to maintain a standard of living
between 10% and 20% above the Irish standard of living. Whatever form Irish unity took there would
be a heavy economic cost for both Northern Ireland and Ireland.

Not sure will the majority of NI or the Republic vote for this. We can barely get a yearly budget over the line without ****ehawks coming out looking for their dues, are we that mature that we are going to reduce our living standards by that much for a decade or two?

Schooling and education is also touched on, where huge reforms must take place in NI, if they are going to pull their own weight.

The one thing Brexit has shown us is that simple slogans and solutions are for fools and snake oiled salesmen. A UI will be tough going to argue for especially when we have the experience of Brexit behind us culling the populist nonsense.

The debate will be more about, 'how much is this going to cost', rather than 'pull on the ol' green jersey'. It is good though that there is some serious policy discussion going on as we are battering away at the veneer of it being a simple handover.

Personally, I cannot see it in my lifetime. But I could see a thing that NI remains its own 'kingdom' in the UK but Ireland takes over more of their foreign affairs duties, like being represented in the EU. In other words, Stormont will still exist for a long time yet.

LoughNeagh2017

I think the fact that Wright Bus going into administration today wasn't even mentioned on this forum shows us how far removed Ulster is to Varadkers land in 2019.

Junkyard Tom

30-40 years

LoughNeagh2017 wrote: »

I think the fact that Wright Bus going into administration today wasn't even mentioned on this forum shows us how far removed Ulster is to Varadkers land in 2019.

Far removed is right though. The land that time forgot more like it. It sounds like a heady mix of evangelical religion and business with millions of GBP being donated by Wrightbus to Jeff Wright's own sect and other seedy stories emerging.

FrancieBrady

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Far removed is right though. The land that time forgot more like it. It sounds like a heady mix of evangelical religion and business with millions of GBP being donated by Wrightbus to Jeff Wright's own sect and other seedy stories emerging.

15m by all accounts...they like to spend big.

jm08

20-30 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

15m by all accounts...they like to spend big.

Seemingly one of the reasons the potential buyers pulled out was because the Wright family want to hold onto the land and lease it back to the new owners at approx. 1 million per year.

Ash.J.Williams

Johnny Adairs Horse wrote: »

Reunification will happen before 2040 and I believe that the United Kingdom of Great Britain will benefit from it most.

We would be like Canada to the United States or New Zealand to Australia, countries that are geographically close, have numerous similarities and although good allies are independent nations.

I can see the relationship between Ireland and the UK post-reunification being as strong as Canada-US and NZ-Australia.

They all hate eachother?

end of the road

Infini wrote: »

Our voting setup would also render them far less of an issue as they need to be part of a coalition or have real policies to get anywhere. Acting the way they do now would render them impotent and basically a numpty party with no power beyond rabble rabble rabble.

they are already such a party anyway tbh.

LoughNeagh2017 wrote: »

I think the fact that Wright Bus going into administration today wasn't even mentioned on this forum shows us how far removed Ulster is to Varadkers land in 2019.

by the looks of things it barely got mentioned in the uk either. it was on the bbc website and got 1 mention at 1am in the morning on lbc radio.
so much for northern ireland being an integral part of the uk.

Ash.J.Williams

Unfortunately you cannot be loyalist in a united Ireland, protestants, Catholics and all religions are welcome but the term loyalist will be obsolete.

FrancieBrady

adaveostatore wrote: »

It has been said before by loyalist terrorist organisations that should the British Government withdraw from the Six Counties they would act like the IRA in reverse. Attacks by these groups on targets in the 26 counties are a possibility and they could result in mass casualties.

As I pointed out as well, whilst republican violence would be all but gone there could still be violence committed by the government, although like I said this is very unlikely it is not impossible that coupled with loyalist attacks and a rise in Irish Catholic nationalism post-reunification, a situation like what happened in Bosnia could happen here, with the next Karadzic becoming Taoiseach and launching an ethnic cleansing campaign against Ulster Protestants, possibly leading to genocide like in Srebrenica but in Ballymena.

This is all very far-fetched, but who knows how events will pan out if reunification goes downhill.

That escalated very quickly. :eek::D

droidman123

adaveostatore wrote: »

How so?

I'm just running through a few possible scenarios if reunification goes wrong.

There are way too many liberals in our political system to advocate ethnic cleansing or anything like it.not that i would agree with anyway

FrancieBrady

adaveostatore wrote: »

How so?

I'm just running through a few possible scenarios if reunification goes wrong.

Sure you are.

You just got to the dictator conducting a campaign of ethnic cleansing very speedily and didn't seem to consider the possibility that we, the Irish, would most likely rebel against somebody like that.

RobMc59

10-15 years

adaveostatore wrote: »

Ash.J.Williams wrote: »

Unfortunately you cannot be loyalist in a united Ireland, protestants, Catholics and all religions are welcome but the term loyalist will be obsolete.

It has been said before by loyalist terrorist organisations that should the British Government withdraw from the Six Counties they would act like the IRA in reverse. Attacks by these groups on targets in the 26 counties are a possibility and they could result in mass casualties.

As I pointed out as well, whilst republican violence would be all but gone there could still be violence committed by the government, although like I said this is very unlikely it is not impossible that coupled with loyalist attacks and a rise in Irish Catholic nationalism post-reunification, a situation like what happened in Bosnia could happen here, with the next Karadzic becoming Taoiseach and launching an ethnic cleansing campaign against Ulster Protestants, possibly leading to genocide like in Srebrenica but in Ballymena.

This is all very far-fetched, but who knows how events will pan out if reunification goes downhill.

Unless someone assisted loyalist terrorists would they have the expertise to mount serious attacks?
In regards to ethnic cleansing,it's unlikely the UK or,indeed the EU would stand by if that was happening.

Junkyard Tom

30-40 years

adaveostatore wrote: »

Attacks by these groups on targets in the 26 counties are a possibility and they could result in mass casualties.

For what? What would they hope to achieve?

Charles Babbage

adaveostatore wrote: »

Look at how Karadzic succeeded in Bosnia.

Well if the British leave the loyalists the greater part of their tanks and artillery there will be a bit of a problem. But sure the Dutch will send peace keepers and they'll try a bit harder this time.

FrancieBrady

adaveostatore wrote: »

Look at how Karadzic succeeded in Bosnia.

Karadzic failed and is now in jail.

FrancieBrady

adaveostatore wrote: »

After he killed 100000 people including 8000 at Srebrenica.

What is to stop someone like him gaining political power here .

The people. Who show absolutely no signs of backing something like that.

What do you think 'loyalists' have at their disposal to create the turmoil necessary to change people in the way you state?

It is scaremongerig of the highest order. Yes, there will be some who will resist...but a campaign capable of creating Bosnian style turmoil and the election of somebody like Karadzic in Dublin?...come off it.

FrancieBrady

adaveostatore wrote: »

Karadzic wasn't stopped by the people. His conflict lasted for four years.

With the right materials you can make a bomb in your garden shed.

Plant that in the 3Arena at a concert, at the entrance to Croke Park during an All-Ireland Final or on a DART or Luas.

They still have access to weaponry. If the UVF attacked Dundrum Shopping Centre, all they would have to do is have three men plant bombs at strategic locations, detonating them thus causing deaths and sheer panic with people running everywhere. All they would have to do then is aim with an assault rifle from the upper floors into the mass crowds and you have 100+ dead.

If these attacks by loyalists post-reunification happen, it will cause public outrage and hatred towards these people. Hence someone like Karadzic who is an extremist and supremacist might want to take advantage of the situation and begin ethnic cleansing of Ulster Protestants.

Again, this will probably never happen but it is a possible hypothetical.

The biggest possibility is that the majority of unionists, having already agreed to a UI if the majority vote for it, complain for a while and then get on with it. Dissidents have bombed Omagh and killed since the GFA and haven't destabilised the peace agreement on bit nor brought to power a unionist who wants to ethnically cleanse them.

Projections should stay within the bounds of the realities some what.

FrancieBrady

adaveostatore wrote: »

Again, I appreciate all of this is very unlikely but I'm just saying that it is a possibility.

There are many 'possibilities' in life. But in order to get out the door of a morning you have to stay within the bounds of reality or you paralyse yourself and barricade yourself inside.

FrancieBrady

adaveostatore wrote: »

If you could explain how this is outside the bounds of reality?

First you have to create that level of turmoil. Impossible imo, even if they could bomb Dublin. They have done that before btw.
Then you have to get the Irish people to allow a man like that into power. Then you have to create an agreed unification that doesn't have protections and safeguards against this happening built into it.
Then create circumstances where outside powers or co-guarantors of any agreement don't step in to stop a genocide.

It is ridiculous to even imagine it here tbh.

FrancieBrady

adaveostatore wrote: »

The Bosnian Serbs, feeling that they were under attack from the Bosniaks in their own land, brought Karadzic to power. Loyalists from the Six Counties, killing teenage girls at concerts or GAA fans at matches or commuters on the Luas or shoppers at Dundrum, who be attacking the Irish populous. The Irish people would not stand by and let this continue to happen. They would want these people to pay for what they did and for it to never happen again, something that wouldn't be achieved with our justice system. It would naturally provoke hatred towards the loyalists who committed the attacks and while many wouldn't want to see all-out war they may be deceived, Karadzic never openly said his intentions were genocide.

Nobody stepped in to stop Srebrenica, and I can't think who would if the same happened in Ballymena.

You haven't even begun to outline how loyalists would create the level of turmoil and death necessary to install a genocidal leader in Dublin much less the circumstances that would allow him/her to proceed with one.

I will leave you to your nightmares.

blanch152

markodaly wrote: »

https://www.tcd.ie/Economics/TEP/2019/tep0619.pdf




So, best-case scenario is that we are looking for the UK to do us a favor? Not likely.




Not sure will the majority of NI or the Republic vote for this. We can barely get a yearly budget over the line without ****ehawks coming out looking for their dues, are we that mature that we are going to reduce our living standards by that much for a decade or two?

Schooling and education is also touched on, where huge reforms must take place in NI, if they are going to pull their own weight.

The one thing Brexit has shown us is that simple slogans and solutions are for fools and snake oiled salesmen. A UI will be tough going to argue for especially when we have the experience of Brexit behind us culling the populist nonsense.

The debate will be more about, 'how much is this going to cost', rather than 'pull on the ol' green jersey'. It is good though that there is some serious policy discussion going on as we are battering away at the veneer of it being a simple handover.

Personally, I cannot see it in my lifetime. But I could see a thing that NI remains its own 'kingdom' in the UK but Ireland takes over more of their foreign affairs duties, like being represented in the EU. In other words, Stormont will still exist for a long time yet.

Not a single response to your post from any of the republicans on here. That says it all.

They are happy to respond to nonsense about Bosnia and Karadzic, but when presented with cold hard economic reality, they shy away.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Not a single response to your post from any of the republicans on here. That says it all.

They are happy to respond to nonsense about Bosnia and Karadzic, but when presented with cold hard economic reality, they shy away.

I responded to that doc before.

It is based on the unlikely 'dramatic ending of the transfer' or us taking on the whole void left by the absence of the transfer.
It does hit at the solution to all of this though: a gradual change in the way NI is run ahead of unification. Which would be what i would favour.

That is why I don't think it would be a good thing if a UI comes about suddenly as a result of Brexit. Which I fear is going to happen.

blanch152

Resin Sauce wrote: »

People say that when reunification happens, the Brits are going to be like �� to us when it comes to finances.

I would expect the UK to agree a settlement of about €1bn, to say sorry for the Plantations, Famine, The Black and Tans, Partition, killing innocent civilians, spawning all those creatures that gather around bonfires on 11th July and all the other injustices we've inflicted on you down through the years, take this and piss off.

If I were Taoiseach I would have done what Trump suggested May to do with the EU, sue the UK and settle. I would sue for €75bn.

And in what court would you sue them, and how would any judgment be enforced?

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I responded to that doc before.

It is based on the unlikely 'dramatic ending of the transfer' or us taking on the whole void left by the absence of the transfer.
It does hit at the solution to all of this though: a gradual change in the way NI is run ahead of unification. Which would be what i would favour.

That is why I don't think it would be a good thing if a UI comes about suddenly as a result of Brexit. Which I fear is going to happen.

Yes, it suggests change over a number of decades within Northern Ireland before unification is even considered. Given the scale of the challenge, you have to wonder why Sinn Fein are preventing the restoration of Stormont over a languages act.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Yes, it suggests change over a number of decades within Northern Ireland before unification is even considered. Given the scale of the challenge, you have to wonder why Sinn Fein are preventing the restoration of Stormont over a languages act.

It isn't just over a language act and they cut a deal on that the DUP backed out off because as we seen with the backstop and Theresa May, there are two DUP parties, the front represented by Arlene and the backroom party that is second guessing her.

Did you miss that?

Fionn1952

15-20 years

blanch152 wrote: »

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I responded to that doc before.

It is based on the unlikely 'dramatic ending of the transfer' or us taking on the whole void left by the absence of the transfer.
It does hit at the solution to all of this though: a gradual change in the way NI is run ahead of unification. Which would be what i would favour.

That is why I don't think it would be a good thing if a UI comes about suddenly as a result of Brexit. Which I fear is going to happen.

Yes, it suggests change over a number of decades within Northern Ireland before unification is even considered. Given the scale of the challenge, you have to wonder why Sinn Fein are preventing the restoration of Stormont over a languages act.

The Irish language act, supported by all parties except the DUP and UUP, Blanch? But aye, ignore the RHI scandal, the Good Friday Agreement, or the constant disrespect shown towards the Irish language by members of the DUP, just pin it all on SF, as per usual. THEIR insistence on a legislative act promised by the GFA is the only problem, nothing to do with the equally hardline opposition to it from the DUP...

aerburdz

10-15 years

10 years the way things are going.

Evan La Crey

15-20 years

I think it will largely depend on how successful the UK economy is after Brexit. If it’s a total disaster, unionists may possibly be prepared to put aside their feelings and vote for reunification for economic reasons.

However, if Brexit goes ok, and the UK prospers, I don’t see why unionists will ever vote for reunification.

Whatever happens, I hope there is no more bloodshed.

If for some reason a hard border does reappear, I think the best thing the paramilitaries could do is do nothing. Leave the people in peace, but let them see that living with the border is causing so much obstruction to business, and that reunification would be a good option to return to prosperity.

facehugger99

Evan La Crey wrote: »

If for some reason a hard border does reappear, I think the best thing the paramilitaries could do is do nothing. Leave the people in peace, but let them see that living with the border is causing so much obstruction to business, and that reunification would be a good option to return to prosperity.

For them maybe, not for us in the ROI, where a precipitous drop in living standards would be guaranteed.

While I can certainly see the appeal for the Nordies in changing sugar-daddies if the Brits turn off the funding-tap, it's not likely you'll find too many Irish taxpayers, outside of the bar-stool brigade, willing to stump up the €10-12bn a year.