How long before Irish reunification?

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

Del.Monte wrote: »

Do any of those posting pro-unification posts here ever go up north or for that matter drop in on YouTube to check the Orange Parades? Like them or loathe them, they haven't gone away you know.

What do people expect in event of reunification - all the Unionists to get the boat?Be careful what you wish for as the result of a border poll in favour of unity could unleash trouble that would make 1969/1998 conflict look like a picnic - only this time it wouldn't be largely confined to the Six Counties.

Sorry but that’s nonsense. British intelligence and Irish government co operate and know all the actors and factions involved. Who they are and where they are.

No faction up there from that community could muster up the money or the competence to launch any kind of campaign of violence other than street level beatings and thuggery they already do. Acting as a second community police force. Vigilantes. That’s all. They were never anything like as effective as the ra and bizarrely given at the time they were funded and supported by the same British intelligence. At one point a plot to assassinate Charles Haughey that they couldn’t even figure out how to do.

You might see some sporadic rioting. Easily quelled and put an end to.
They haven’t the numbers the money or the ability to even try anything.

RobMc59

10-15 years

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Sorry but that’s nonsense. British intelligence and Irish government co operate and know all the actors and factions involved. Who they are and where they are.

No faction up there from that community could muster up the money or the competence to launch any kind of campaign of violence other than street level beatings and thuggery they already do. Acting as a second community police force. Vigilantes. That’s all. They were never anything like as effective as the ra and bizarrely given at the time they were funded and supported by the same British intelligence. At one point a plot to assassinate Charles Haughey that they couldn’t even figure out how to do.

You might see some sporadic rioting. Easily quelled and put an end to.
They haven’t the numbers the money or the ability to even try anything.

I don`t think the British would help the "ra"and who do you think the Scottish would help?

Sunny Disposition

15-20 years

Greyfox wrote: »

It would be an interesting campaign. In Dublin the possibility of a UI doesnt come up that much in casual conversation. It would be nice to see a proper debate about it

Yeah, it would be the biggest campaign ever, a really massive historic moment. It will happen, but it could be 20 years away yet. I suspect it wont be put to Northern voters until it is a formality there.

It’s a shame really that Northern Ireland has failed in the way it has, discrimination, segregation, low level civil war, awful economy. What a waste.For sure there have been loads of problems in the South since partition, but it’s basically a functional society.

cameramonkey

20-30 years

Del.Monte wrote: »

Do any of those posting pro-unification posts here ever go up north or for that matter drop in on YouTube to check the Orange Parades? Like them or loathe them, they haven't gone away you know.

What do people expect in event of reunification - all the Unionists to get the boat?Be careful what you wish for as the result of a border poll in favour of unity could unleash trouble that would make 1969/1998 conflict look like a picnic - only this time it wouldn't be largely confined to the Six Counties.

Its 100 years or more on from the Home rule crisis and one thing that dosnt change is the threat of Unionist violence to thwart the democratic wishes of the Irish people.
Is the threat of Unionist violence something that we should see as a legitimate reaction to a vote or should we confront those that would again try to usurp democratic progress?

Dammo

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

In the event of a UI, I think a lot of people will be surprised.

The full time patriots in the south will be surprised at how disliked they are by the nationalists up north for abandoning them and then standing idly by, etc.

On the other hand, the northern nationalists will be surprised at, despite the populist vote, the numbers down south who don’t want them.

The unionists will be surprised that Scotland, despite all the hands across the water rhetoric, don’t want them as part of their independent state. They may be further surprised that the south is not as bad as they thought.

Would definitely be interesting.

feargale

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Feargale...the 'people' here are convinced by a margin of almost 2-1.

And it only has to be 51% in northern Ireland. A few years of Brexit effects and unionists will be persuaded, they will not need SF to 'convert' them.
A few big farmers losing their land will do the trick imo.

The 51% may materialise in NI. I wouldn't be putting the house on it, especially as SF don't appear to be willing to concede anything to the other side. The reality with rare exceptions in relation to an election or referendum on radical change is that three months out from the vote a certain number of people say they are sick of the status quo and they want change. As voting day approaches a number lose their nerve and decide that the devil they know is better than the devil they don't know e.g. Scottish referendum. Which is your preference, a 26 republic or a 32 county state with some association with monarchy?
Seamus Mallon for some reason seems to attract particular odium from "republicans," maybe because he was an effective counter-weight. Therefore I wouldn't expect many of them to heed his advice, i.e. "hasten slowly." If you lose a referendum you will be waiting a long time for another one.

P.S. I note that my questions remain unanswered.

Sunny Disposition

15-20 years

I could be wrong, but I think the current talk about reunification is a phase.
It wasn’t talked about 10 years ago as often or as seriously.
The next phase will probably be to try and build bridges with the Protestant population, look at means of making them comfortable with the idea, following a terrible armed campaign that saw many of their innocent people die.
If it can become mainstream to favour a UI among northern Protestants then it’ll be nearly time for the referendum.
Would like to think it’ll be sooner, but don’t think there’s much chance of it inside 15 years.
Brexit hasn’t as much to do with it as some commentators think, beyond maybe making it more acceptable for Protestants to move away from leaders who are from the Dark Ages. The big factor is the changed demographics.

_blaaz

10-15 years

Del.Monte wrote: »

Do any of those posting pro-unification posts here ever go up north or for that matter drop in on YouTube to check the Orange Parades? Like them or loathe them, they haven't gone away you know.

What do people expect in event of reunification - all the Unionists to get the boat?Be careful what you wish for as the result of a border poll in favour of unity could unleash trouble that would make 1969/1998 conflict look like a picnic - only this time it wouldn't be largely confined to the Six Counties.

I do....ive many good friends what don the sash....(they also.dispise many lodges who are a front for paramilitaries)


Ive never heard any unionist/loyalist threathen to overturn a democratitc decision,have you??


Theyd not vote for a utd irl....but wouldnt vote againest it,seems concensus i know from would admitedely be mainly working class

An Claidheamh

Del.Monte wrote: »

Be careful what you wish for as the result of a border poll in favour of unity could unleash trouble that would make 1969/1998 conflict look like a picnic - only this time it wouldn't be largely confined to the Six Counties.

I doubt it, loyalists are like the Roma Gypsies of IreIand and Britain, without British support they couldn't organise much resistance, and any unofficial support from British "patriots" would have consequences for Britain as it did before.

The KKK don't dictate policy in the US, why should the OO in Ireland?

Anyway, it would be another armed group who would take things upon themselves if Dublin was found dragging its heels.

An Claidheamh

_blaaz wrote: »

I do....ive many good friends what don the sash....(they also.dispise many lodges who are a front for paramilitaries)


Ive never heard any unionist/loyalist threathen to overturn a democratitc decision,have you??


Theyd not vote for a utd irl....but wouldnt vote againest it,seems concensus i know from would admitedely be mainly working class

Amazing how these orange "Christians" accidentally always end up at bonfires burning our flag, I wonder if it was the other way round what would happen...

Are they disgusted at that?

RobMc59

10-15 years

An Claidheamh wrote: »

I doubt it, loyalists are like the Roma Gypsies of IreIand and Britain, without British support they couldn't organise much resistance, and any unofficial support from British "patriots" would have consequences for Britain as it did before.

The KKK don't dictate policy in the US, why should the OO in Ireland?

Anyway, it would be another armed group who would take things upon themselves if Dublin was found dragging its heels.

If you're referring to Republican paramilitary groups I doubt those cowards would come out of the shadows and fight like men-they wouldn't last long if they did and hiding round corners taking pot shots at civilians is more their style.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

If you're referring to Republican paramilitary groups I doubt those cowards would come out of the shadows and fight like men-they wouldn't last long if they did and hiding round corners taking pot shots at civilians is more their style.

While it may have been a good 'potshot' itself, anybody who claims to 'know' Ireland or even Britain knows that republican paramilitaries where a tad more sophisticated than that.

Here is the British take on the IRA for instance:

"PIRA developed into what will probably be seen as one of the most effective terrorist organisations in history. Professional, dedicated, highly skilled and resilient, it conducted a sustained and lethal campaign in Northern Ireland, mainland United Kingdom and on the continent of Europe," the document states.

As to 'fighting like men' dropping bombs from 10,000 feet or rocking up to a smaller country with a strike force of overwhelming size is hardly the work of heroes either.

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

While it may have been a good 'potshot' itself, anybody who claims to 'know' Ireland or even Britain knows that republican paramilitaries where a tad more sophisticated than that.

Here is the British take on the IRA for instance:



As to 'fighting like men' dropping bombs from 10,000 feet or rocking up to a smaller country with a strike force of overwhelming size is hardly the work of heroes either.

neither is dragging civilians from their bed, putting them in front of a kangaroo court and then disappearing their bodies.

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

neither is dragging civilians from their bed, putting them in front of a kangaroo court and then disappearing their bodies.

All of which(atrocities)has been done by most armies around the world. Including the British one.
The killing of young Aidan McAnespie and others are now seen as summary executions not to mention Bloody Sunday.

Apply your standards to all participants please.

RobMc59

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

All of which(atrocities)has been done by most armies around the world. Including the British one.
The killing of young Aidan McAnespie and others are now seen as summary executions not to mention Bloody Sunday.

Apply your standards to all participants please.

My comments referred to possible paramilitary attacks on unionist civilians not the BA,'whataboutery' doesn't get anyone anywhere and is just a deflection.
Back on topic,I don't think any reasonable person would argue with a democratic vote in favour of a UI but if the vote was to remain within the UK would the likes of saoradh abide by the vote?-That would be interesting.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

My comments referred to possible paramilitary attacks on unionist civilians not the BA,'whataboutery' doesn't get anyone anywhere and is just a deflection.

Pointing out that you only apply your 'standards' to one side is not a deflection but a pointed observation.

Back on topic,I don't think any reasonable person would argue with a democratic vote in favour of a UI but if the vote was to remain within the UK would the likes of saoradh abide by the vote?-That would be interesting.

No, Saoradh would not recognise the result of a vote.
People who are democrats will abide by a fair vote. Have the DUP abided by the GFA referendum result?

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

All of which(atrocities)has been done by most armies around the world. Including the British one.
The killing of young Aidan McAnespie and others are now seen as summary executions not to mention Bloody Sunday.

Apply your standards to all participants please.

i do. its a pity the republicans dont.

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

i do. its a pity the republicans dont.

Sure you do. :rolleyes:

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Sure you do. :rolleyes:

well at least you didnt deny that the republicans dont. thats a start i suppose.

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

Tory candidates in Belfast today for hustings.
Probably only meeting the DUP.
Here begins the real first attempts to tear up the GFA

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

well at least you didnt deny that the republicans dont. thats a start i suppose.

Which bit of 'terrible things happen in a war on all sides' have you not gotten about this 'republican's position since I joined this site. :rolleyes:

I do love the way you guys take up a position, get roasted and then start lying and misrepresenting people to cover your many blushes.

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Which bit of 'terrible things happen in a war on all sides' have you not gotten about this 'republican's position since I joined this site. :rolleyes:

I do love the way you guys take up a position, get roasted and then start lying and misrepresenting people to cover your many blushes.

If in doubt go on the attack. Seems to be something "you guys" do constantly.

Del.Monte

20-30 years

Del.Monte wrote: »

What do people expect in event of reunification - all the Unionists to get the boat?Be careful what you wish for as the result of a border poll in favour of unity could unleash trouble that would make 1969/1998 conflict look like a picnic - only this time it wouldn't be largely confined to the Six Counties.

Oh, a Unionist threat of violence in the event of a majority voting for Irish independence/ reunification. Despite Unionists themselves coming up with, and insisting upon, the "consent of the majority in Northern Ireland" veto - what they used to call a "principle of democracy" - they're now talking about threatening violence if that majority votes for reunification. Where have we seen this British/Unionist overthrow of the wishes of the majority before?

Oh, yes, I remember - after the Parliament Act in 1911 when the veto of the British House of Lords on the wishes of the House of Commons was limited to 2 years, thus meaning Ireland should have had Home Rule by 1914, two years after the 3rd Home Rule Bill in 1912.

Unionist response? Bring in guns galore, mutiny in the British Army in the Curragh and organise with rightwing English Tories to start a civil war in Ireland in defiance of the wishes of their own British House of Commons.

However, you all may have overlooked a number of quite enormous changes in Unionist and British state power since 1912...

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

If in doubt go on the attack. Seems to be something "you guys" do constantly.

You lied about my consistent position. Play the victim all you wish, it doesn't hide the fact.

Sunny Disposition

15-20 years

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/ben-lowry-stark-catholic-protestant-population-change-suggests-union-is-not-be-as-safe-as-some-people-say-1-7872313

Unionism has to break away from its past to have even a hope of enduring. The idea that there will never be a United Ireland, that things will just go on as they are, seems doubtful at best. Anyone who wants to preserve the Union is going to have to reach out to what will be a large Catholic majority within a generation.

James Brown

10-15 years

Sunny Disposition wrote: »

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/ben-lowry-stark-catholic-protestant-population-change-suggests-union-is-not-be-as-safe-as-some-people-say-1-7872313

Unionism has to break away from its past to have even a hope of enduring. The idea that there will never be a United Ireland, that things will just go on as they are, seems doubtful at best. Anyone who wants to preserve the Union is going to have to reach out to what will be a large Catholic majority within a generation.

Unionism, (the DUP variant anyway) thrives on it's past. It's present and future are about keeping it's power.
Unfortunately for them, (and everyone else) they've Boris to contend with by the looks and he's a wild card.

RobMc59

10-15 years

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Unionism, (the DUP variant anyway) thrives on it's past. It's present and future are about keeping it's power.
Unfortunately for them, (and everyone else) they've Boris to contend with by the looks and he's a wild card.

That maybe partially true but you must admit repubicans are also obsessed with the past-its all they bring up in any discussion-the British empire has long gone and just as unionists need to reevaluate their way of thinking so do dyed in the wool republicans who won't move on from past events-how can people come to an agreement acceptable to both sides if all you hear is accusation and counter accusation-its a vicious circle.

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

The whole debacle is basically this.
Brexit is being held up and delayed because the DUP don’t want an imaginary line in the sea which is only there to check animal health at ports of exit and in the sea.

So a lot of cows somehow threatening to make the DUP feel their less british if they give in on a sea border. The infrastructure which for checking animals is already in place.

I am baffled stunned and daily amazed that *nobody* in the uk has pointed out the cause of the hold up and sort it. Throw the DUP all the way under the bus.
I think Boris is the man to do that come what may.

James Brown

10-15 years

RobMc59 wrote: »

That maybe partially true but you must admit repubicans are also obsessed with the past-its all they bring up in any discussion-the British empire has long gone and just as unionists need to reevaluate their way of thinking so do dyed in the wool republicans who won't move on from past events-how can people come to an agreement acceptable to both sides if all you hear is accusation and counter accusation-its a vicious circle.

That's 100% true IMO.
Yes Republicans are. And yes everyone should re-evaluate for modern times.
One major difference is one side was borne out of seeking equality while the other was borne out of maintaining in-equality.

FrancieBrady

Matt Barrett wrote: »

That's 100% true IMO.
Yes Republicans are. And yes everyone should re-evaluate for modern times.
One major difference is one side was borne out of seeking equality while the other was borne out of maintaining in-equality.

Unionism's main goal at the moment is try as they may to disrupt Irish unity that has forced them into a cul de sac.