How long before Irish reunification?

FrancieBrady

facehugger99 wrote: »

For them maybe, not for us in the ROI, where a precipitous drop in living standards would be guaranteed.

While I can certainly see the appeal for the Nordies in changing sugar-daddies if the Brits turn off the funding-tap, it's not likely you'll find too many Irish taxpayers, outside of the bar-stool brigade, willing to stump up the €10-12bn a year.

Your view of 'Nordies' being some sort of pariahs looking for a sugar daddy would only be shared by a few of your fellow country men and women and the worst excesses of the British establishment.
Most Irish people would be well versed in why NI has ended up as it has. That view is currently being further embellished by watching a Unionist fringe determined to take them out of the EU and cause pain for them and us in the south.

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

Bizarre that this went unnoticed here. The Constitution institute in the U.K. have hired the foremost minds on ireland north and south to map out how a UI referendum would work and what would have to happen.


https://constitution-unit.com/2019/09/06/investigating-the-mechanics-of-unification-referendums-in-ireland-north-and-south/

Investigating the mechanics of unification referendums in Ireland, North and South
Posted by The Constitution Unit
alan.jfif (1)Alan_Rialto2 (1)The Constitution Unit has today announced the creation of a new Working Group on Unification Referendums on the Island of Ireland. In this post, Alan Renwick and Alan Whysall explain why the group is needed, what issues it will examine and how it will work.

The Constitution Unit has today announced that, with generous funding from the British Academy’s Humanities and Social Sciences Tackling the UK’s International Challenges programme, it is creating a new Working Group on Unification Referendums on the Island of Ireland. Comprising 13 political scientists, lawyers, sociologists, and historians based in Belfast, Dublin and London, this group will work over the coming year to examine the processes before, during and after any future referendums on the question of Irish unity – beginning with what is often known as a ‘border poll’ in Northern Ireland. It is an expert group: it will take no view on the desirability in principle of referendums, nor on any of the outcomes that may follow. In this post, we set out why such an exercise is needed, what questions the group is likely to explore, and what form the project will take.

Why the Working Group is needed

A deep investigation into unification referendums on the island of Ireland is needed for three interlinked reasons. First, such referendum might actually happen, potentially very soon. The Northern Ireland Act 1998 – which enshrines the key elements of the Good Friday Agreement in UK law – says that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland ‘shall’ call such a poll ‘if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland’. While opinion polls continue to indicate that there is no majority for a united Ireland at present, the trend is towards greater support for that proposition, and some recent polls have suggested that a hard Brexit would shift opinion further. It is thus possible that the condition for triggering a referendum will be met in the near future.

Second, though the UK legislation requires a referendum in some circumstances, it offers little detail on how the process would be conducted. The UK’s general rules on referendums would apply. In the South even less provision is made: it is clear from the Good Friday Agreement that one or more referendums will be needed, but there is little guidance beyond that. So, as we elaborate below, many key matters remain unspecified. Indeed, almost no detailed thinking has happened, at least in public, on what form any unification referendum might take or what processes would precede or follow it, both north and south of the border. The governments in both London and Dublin, keen to dampen down talk of a referendum in the short term, will be unlikely to contribute to discussion of these subjects themselves, making an independent investigation all the more important.

Third, thinking through the best way to conduct such a referendum is vital. Any referendum should be designed with great care – we have seen from Brexit the dangers of an ill-designed process that has left parliament feeling bound to implement an imprecise instruction from the electorate that many voters on the losing side view as illegitimate. The risks are all the greater in Northern Ireland, where a badly structured process has the potential to stoke civil unrest. Detailed thinking is therefore needed about how any referendum might be triggered and what procedures might subsequently be followed.

Key questions

Many of the questions that will be explored by the Working Group were set out in a background report written earlier this year by Alan Whysall, and previously summarised on this blog. They cover referendums both north and south of the border and processes before, during, and after the vote itself. They include:

How would any border poll be triggered? The legislation requires such a referendum if it appears that a majority in Northern Ireland might favour a united Ireland. But what objective evidence should be used to gauge whether this condition is met? What activity might take place in the run-up, and over what period?
On what basis should a referendum be held in the South? Would there need as a matter of law and practicality to be both pre-negotiation and post-negotiation referendums there? And if so, is it feasible to have a post-negotiation poll in the South but not in the North?
What options for future governance in Ireland and Northern Ireland could be considered if there were votes in favour of Irish unity, and what implications would these have for the nature of the decision-making process? Who should make such decisions about the process, and on what basis?
How and where in the process should citizens be engaged in discussions about the options? Since the Good Friday Agreement was negotiated and enshrined in law, Ireland has developed a practice of holding citizens’ assemblies before contested constitutional changes, most notably in relation to same-sex marriage and abortion. Might citizens’ assemblies be employed in relation to the unification question as well? If so, what would their remit be and how would this be determined? How might any such deliberative processes north and south of the border relate to each other?
How should the campaigns during the referendums be regulated? In Northern Ireland, beyond the UK-wide provisions set out in the Political Parties, Elections, and Referendums Act 2000 (and any updates that may be made to it), what provisions would be made to ensure that voters could make an informed choice free from unfair campaign practices? And what rules should apply in the South? How should the ballot papers be designed?
What should be the qualifications for voting in border polls, North and South?
This list is very far from being exhaustive, and we expect that further questions will emerge over the course of the project.

What we will do

The Working Group is designed to pool the expertise of leading scholars based in Belfast, Dublin, and London. Its members, who are listed on the project’s webpage, range across law, political science, sociology, and history, with particular research specialisms focusing on the border itself, British–Irish relations, public opinion, constitutional law, unionist and nationalist thought, peace processes, and the conduct of referendums. The members of the group will gather for six meetings in the three capital cities over the course of the coming year, to share insights and work up proposals.

The project is also designed to foster wider discussion of these issues among policy-makers, campaigners, and the broader public. To that end, we will hold public seminars in the three capital cities in the early months of 2020 to seek feedback on the questions that the group is asking and the options it is considering. We are currently also seeking additional funding that would allow wider consultations to take place. Full details of all these seminars and possible further processes will be announced on the project’s webpage in due course.

The project’s primary output will be a report setting out options and recommendations, which we expect to publish in autumn 2020. We hope this will serve as a basis for further public discussion and ultimately for policy-making by the governments.

Conclusion

From its earliest years, the Constitution Unit has conducted many projects examining the form that a given policy innovation might take without forming a view on whether that innovation should actually happen. Such an approach characterises, for example, our recent projects on options for an English parliament and the mechanics of a further referendum on Brexit. The Working Group on Unification Referendums on the Island of Ireland belongs to the same category.

The project’s purpose is not to argue for a referendum or for any particular outcome in a referendum. Rather, it acknowledges that a decision about whether to hold a referendum might need to be made in the coming years and, given that, the options need to have been identified and thought through in advance. We look forward to keeping readers of this blog informed from time to time as the project develops.

If you enjoy the Constitution Unit blog, sign up for updates in the left sidebar, join our mailing list for news of our events and research, and support us through a one-off or regular donation. Donations are crucial to funding the blog, and the Unit’s research.

About the authors

Dr Alan Renwick is Deputy Director of the Constitution Unit and project leader for the Working Group on Unification Referendums on the Island of Ireland.

Alan Whysall is a former civil servant and now an Honorary Senior Research Associate at the Unit, specialising on Northern Ireland’s politics. He is a member of the Working Group.

Evan La Crey

15-20 years

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

"Bizarre that this went unnoticed here."

They interviewed one of the analysts on Newstalk the other day.

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

Evan La Crey wrote: »

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

"Bizarre that this went unnoticed here."

They interviewed one of the analysts on Newstalk the other day.

I was referring to the fact that this endeavor was launched over a month ago. And it wasn’t mentioned here in this thread. Nor in Irish media. Until today. But who even listens to newstalk in fairness. No wonder it didn’t show up here.

Wheels are obviously turning and it’s being mapped out.
Would love to know who or what the constitution institute are. And who really funded this. But they have all the right minds on it.

Funny looking back on endless amounts of ‘the conversation will never even happen, never mind a UI happening’ posts earlier in this very thread.

Yet here we go.

Evan La Crey

15-20 years

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Evan La Crey wrote: »

I was referring to the fact that this endeavor was launched over a month ago. And it wasn’t mentioned here in this thread. Nor in Irish media. Until today. But who even listens to newstalk in fairness. No wonder it didn’t show up here.

Wheels are obviously turning and it’s being mapped out.
Would love to know who or what the constitution institute are. And who really funded this. But they have all the right minds on it.

Funny looking back on endless amounts of ‘the conversation will never even happen, never mind a UI happening’ posts earlier in this very thread.

Yet here we go.

Ah, I see. Yes it's certainly interesting that it is being seriously thought about; as in thinking how it could be done if it were to be voted for at some point. It's good to see that someone decided it would be a good idea to prepare a procedure for how it would all work BEFORE even considering the prospect of asking people to vote for it... Perhaps lessons have been learned from the BREXIT shambles.

FrancieBrady

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Evan La Crey wrote: »

I was referring to the fact that this endeavor was launched over a month ago. And it wasn’t mentioned here in this thread. Nor in Irish media. Until today. But who even listens to newstalk in fairness. No wonder it didn’t show up here.

Wheels are obviously turning and it’s being mapped out.
Would love to know who or what the constitution institute are. And who really funded this. But they have all the right minds on it.

Funny looking back on endless amounts of ‘the conversation will never even happen, never mind a UI happening’ posts earlier in this very thread.

Yet here we go.

I referenced it pages back to illustrate that a UI was being looked at here and elsewhere.

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

Didn’t see it Francie I’m sorry. It didn’t spark much debate.

Can only assume the very idea spooked some people and they thought if they ignore it, it will go away.

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

He lists five options and the first is reunification. Lights have not only changed, thing is gaining momentum

https://twitter.com/passportirish/status/1180086791535235072?s=21

blanch152

Davidahig wrote: »

Senator Mark Daly says that voting rights needed to be sorted out and EU citizens should be entitled to vote in a border poll.

Would that be in breach of the Good Friday Agreement?

"recognise that it is for the people of the island of Ireland alone, by
agreement between the two parts respectively and without external
impediment, to exercise their right of self-determination on the basis of
consent, freely and concurrently given, North and South, to bring about a
united Ireland, if that is their wish, accepting that this right must be
achieved and exercised with and subject to the agreement and consent of a
majority of the people of Northern Ireland;"

What is meant by the people of the island of Ireland alone? Does that only include people entitled to Irish citizenship? Does it include only those born on the island?

Who are the people of Northern Ireland? Is someone born in Dundalk but living in Newry a person of Northern Ireland? If they are, then what about someone born in Glasgow and living in East Belfast?

James Brown

10-15 years

blanch152 wrote: »

Would that be in breach of the Good Friday Agreement?

"recognise that it is for the people of the island of Ireland alone, by
agreement between the two parts respectively and without external
impediment, to exercise their right of self-determination on the basis of
consent, freely and concurrently given, North and South, to bring about a
united Ireland, if that is their wish, accepting that this right must be
achieved and exercised with and subject to the agreement and consent of a
majority of the people of Northern Ireland;"

What is meant by the people of the island of Ireland alone? Does that only include people entitled to Irish citizenship? Does it include only those born on the island?

Who are the people of Northern Ireland? Is someone born in Dundalk but living in Newry a person of Northern Ireland? If they are, then what about someone born in Glasgow and living in East Belfast?

Irish currently under British jurisdiction.
It's in the name Blanch

theguzman

15-20 years

Davidahig wrote: »

Senator Mark Daly says that voting rights needed to be sorted out and EU citizens should be entitled to vote in a border poll.

The only people eligible to vote should be Irish Citizens, however with the way passports are being thrown around the place nowadays what is an Irish citizen? My lineage is directly traceable back to the 1200's and being a citizen does not make you Irish in my opinion.

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

Davidahig wrote: »

Senator Mark Daly says that voting rights needed to be sorted out and EU citizens should be entitled to vote in a border poll.

Link?

When he says sorted out?

micosoft

15-20 years

facehugger99 wrote: »

For them maybe, not for us in the ROI, where a precipitous drop in living standards would be guaranteed.

While I can certainly see the appeal for the Nordies in changing sugar-daddies if the Brits turn off the funding-tap, it's not likely you'll find too many Irish taxpayers, outside of the bar-stool brigade, willing to stump up the €10-12bn a year.

They seem bar stool economics there as well.

Firstly that subsidy needs to be broken down to eliminate things like N'Ireland's contribution to UK Nuclear Weapons for example.

Secondly it's not like GB will just stop. They will end up paying in over a ten year period as part of a settlement just like they will pay the EU their dues as part of the exit arrangement. I suspect that a staged commitment over a decade circa 50 billion would be reasonable (and the English glad of it).

Thirdly it's not that the EU will not be there and be exceptionally sympathetic - especially Germany who spent 2 Trillion euro on their reunification. This is what the EU is literally for.

Lastly it ignores that Northern Ireland and Belfast were once one of the richest and most industrialized places on Earth. The unification dividend and being part of a modern outward looking country in the EU could quickly jump start Northern Ireland.

blanch152

micosoft wrote: »

They seem bar stool economics there as well.

Firstly that subsidy needs to be broken down to eliminate things like N'Ireland's contribution to UK Nuclear Weapons for example.

Secondly it's not like GB will just stop. They will end up paying in over a ten year period as part of a settlement just like they will pay the EU their dues as part of the exit arrangement. I suspect that a staged commitment over a decade circa 50 billion would be reasonable (and the English glad of it).

Thirdly it's not that the EU will not be there and be exceptionally sympathetic - especially Germany who spent 2 Trillion euro on their reunification. This is what the EU is literally for.

Lastly it ignores that Northern Ireland and Belfast were once one of the richest and most industrialized places on Earth. The unification dividend and being part of a modern outward looking country in the EU could quickly jump start Northern Ireland.

That is some really optimistic thinking there.


Firstly, eliminating Northern Ireland's contribution to UK Nuclear Weapons would be more than cancelled out by the increase in public service pay rates to match those in the South (unless you are suggesting either pay cuts in the South, or lesser status for public servants in the North).

Secondly, why would the UK pay? They already resent having to continue to pay to the EU, where there are contractual obligations. There are no such obligations, they would simply say you people on the island want it, you can have it, we wish you well, but we're not going to pay for it.

Thirdly, why would the EU help out one of its richest members with huge subsidies when the likes of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, etc. are still trying to catch up after decades of Soviet rule?

Finally, what unification dividend? The burden on the Irish taxpayer will inevitably mean an increase in corporation tax. We will be lucky to hang on to the existing FDI, let alone increase it. As a recent ESRI paper explored, there was no peace dividend for Northern Ireland, why would be expect a unification dividend, especially if there were increased protests or civil unrest?

Any realistic assessment of this country absorbing the poorest UK region and making a go of it will conclude that living standards will fall in the South as a consequence. For some people that is worth it, and they are entitled to that opinion. I would prefer to wait until the North sorts itself out.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

That is some really optimistic thinking there.


Firstly, eliminating Northern Ireland's contribution to UK Nuclear Weapons would be more than cancelled out by the increase in public service pay rates to match those in the South (unless you are suggesting either pay cuts in the South, or lesser status for public servants in the North).

Secondly, why would the UK pay? They already resent having to continue to pay to the EU, where there are contractual obligations.

The only people refusing to pay the bill are Brexiteer loons as far as I can see.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The only people refusing to pay the bill are Brexiteer loons as far as I can see.

Oh dear, oh dear. I never said people were refusing to pay the bill.

I said "They already resent having to continue to pay to the EU, where there are contractual obligations" Resentment at paying the bill is much wider than refusal to pay it.

I then went on to point out the difference with the North where there are no contractual obligations.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Oh dear, oh dear. I never said people were refusing to pay the bill.

I said "They already resent having to continue to pay to the EU, where there are contractual obligations" Resentment at paying the bill is much wider than refusal to pay it.

I then went on to point out the difference with the North where there are no contractual obligations.

Oh dear oh dear...people resent getting bills/having to pay them.

So what? People pay their bills, accept moral obligations to pay for things, and further see the value of paying for something if there is a longer term pay off if they do.

Have a slice of political reality cake there blanch, it's not that hard to swallow.

20-30 years

The inimitable Ken Loach, interviewed in this morning's Irish Times, gets straight to the point:

Ken Loach: What’s Britain doing owning part of Ireland?

There's no way the English can get away with the British settler-colonial remnant of England's Irish colony that is Northern Ireland for much longer.

Go to 1:10 here for ethnic cleansing of Irish people in Belfast in August 1971, an episode which is often unknown due to the attention paid to the pogroms in Belfast in August 1969:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibhnhqB02A8

yourdeadwright

I don't think it will ever happen
Why would anyone want it to ? It would put way to much finical strain on our country plus half of them want nothing to do with us,

It would cause huge problems in so many different way's

Best bet is to get a big con saw and let them float off and deal with there own issues ,
The north is now a burden to us as well as England,

FrancieBrady

yourdeadwright wrote: »

I don't think it will ever happen
Why would anyone want it to ? It would put way to much finical strain on our country plus half of them want nothing to do with us,

It would cause huge problems in so many different way's

Best bet is to get a big con saw and let them float off and deal with there own issues ,
The north is now a burden to us as well as England,

In it's present state (not to mention it's 'state' for most of the last 100 years) it has caused an intractable and so far unsolvable problem for all the EU and mostly for the UK itself. In fact it has the potential to break up the UK.

The 'north', because of the senselessness of partition has always been a problem and burden for us and GB.
Because it is untenable.

micosoft

15-20 years

blanch152 wrote: »

That is some really optimistic thinking there.

Firstly, eliminating Northern Ireland's contribution to UK Nuclear Weapons would be more than cancelled out by the increase in public service pay rates to match those in the South (unless you are suggesting either pay cuts in the South, or lesser status for public servants in the North).

I'm a natural pessimist but so don't think it's enormously optimistic tbh. Assumption that we don't consolidate the civil service. One of the ironic things with Northern Ireland is that Catholics have occupied the middle classes in N'Ireland and over the past few decades have dominated an oversized public service. This is the group of people Unionism should be appealing to as they may be for reunification in their hearts their wallet tells them they will have less job security in a united Ireland. So to be clear I'm asking for a massive reduction in public servants where there is duplication. That will save money

blanch152 wrote: »

Secondly, why would the UK pay? They already resent having to continue to pay to the EU, where there are contractual obligations. There are no such obligations, they would simply say you people on the island want it, you can have it, we wish you well, but we're not going to pay for it.

Why? They have an absolute moral obligation and residual commitments. Much like Hard Brexit won't happen neither do I believe Hard Unification will occur either. There is no part of the British politic that thinks they should cut them off least of all the Tory party. The remaining UK will contribute barring a catastrophic crash

blanch152 wrote: »

Thirdly, why would the EU help out one of its richest members with huge subsidies when the likes of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, etc. are still trying to catch up after decades of Soviet rule?

Because we won't be the richest country with taking on Northern Ireland? You seem to have the same zero sum attitude that Brexiteers in the UK have. That everybody is out solely for themselves and everything should be seen in a transnactional way.
The goals of the European Union are:

• promote peace, its values and the well-being of its citizens
• offer freedom, security and justice without internal borders
• sustainable development based on balanced economic growth and price stability, a highly competitive market economy with full employment and social progress, and environmental protection
• combat social exclusion and discrimination
• promote scientific and technological progress
• enhance economic, social and territorial cohesion and solidarity among EU countries
• respect its rich cultural and linguistic diversity
• establish an economic and monetary union whose currency is the euro.

Seems to be me that EU is literally setup to do this...

blanch152 wrote: »

Finally, what unification dividend? The burden on the Irish taxpayer will inevitably mean an increase in corporation tax. We will be lucky to hang on to the existing FDI, let alone increase it. As a recent ESRI paper explored, there was no peace dividend for Northern Ireland, why would be expect a unification dividend, especially if there were increased protests or civil unrest?

The exact same unification dividend the Germans got. Why would it inevitably lead to an increase in Corporation taxes (I can think of other reasons). But what about access to the highly educated Northern Ireland job market at the same time the UK cuts itself off as a FDI market to the US, Japan and China. We have an incredible opportunity here

blanch152 wrote: »

Any realistic assessment of this country absorbing the poorest UK region and making a go of it will conclude that living standards will fall in the South as a consequence. For some people that is worth it, and they are entitled to that opinion. I would prefer to wait until the North sorts itself out.

The North will never sort itself out on its own. That's the point. We have the example of Germany. It cost two trillion. But it created a second boom there. Reunification is an investment in ourselves.

joseywhales

10-15 years

I'm thinking of setting up a blue order, basically we will have pro EU marches all over the north and bonfires to marked the day ni gets annexed by the EU. We will celebrate barnier. I mean it's only fair right?

It has echos of the past, a Continental power coming to influence our affairs, this time without bloodshed hopefully. It will be a good session we can play ode to Joy on the flutes and demand access to predominantly loyalist routes.

nigeldaniel

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

A good question. I can not see it for a long time myself, then the other question. Can Dublin afford it?

20-30 years

There's a decent article in today's Irish Times from the economist John Fitzgerald about the difference in living standards between north and south. Once again, Fitzgerald highlights the lack of economic activity in the North compared to the South and the enormous role of the British subsidy in keeping the place running for the moment. He expects this to decline substantially given the rise in English nationalism.

North’s economy is facing serious consequences from English nationalism: A sharp fall in vital transfers to Northern Ireland after Brexit is likely

This article on the North's educational attainment last April by the same author is disturbing given they had free secondary school education in the North for a full 20 years longer than in the South, if enlightening:

North's poor education system a recipe for failure: 21% per cent of 30-34 year olds have not completed their post-primary education

In Northern Ireland today, 21 per cent of 30-34 year olds have not completed post-primary education, the highest in any UK region. It contrasts with a figure of 9 per cent for Ireland.

While 95 per cent of grammar schools score well, Borooah concludes that Northern Ireland’s secondary schools, taken collectively, “fail to meet the minimum acceptable standard for post-primary schools in England”. Protestant schools in this category do particularly badly – only 33 per cent of children reach the requisite standard, compared to 41 per cent in Catholic schools. Disadvantaged Protestant boys in such schools do worst of all, with only 20 per cent of them reaching the required standard, lower than the 33 per cent for equivalent Catholic boys. The figures for girls are marginally better.

This outdated selective system of secondary education has resulted in Northern Ireland having the lowest human capital of any UK region. It has a high proportion of early school leavers, and the proportion of thirtysomethings with a degree, at 35 per cent, is twenty percentage points lower than in Scotland or Ireland.

Education matters in terms of economic growth. The research evidence shows that much of Ireland’s economic success is attributable to the investment in education we made over the last 40 years. Scotland, the fastest-growing region in the UK outside London, is likewise reaping returns on its investment in a high-quality education system. The converse is also true. Northern Ireland, with the least-educated workforce, is the slowest-growing region in the UK. The Northern Ireland Department of the Economy recently published research showing how the low proportion of graduates in its workforce limits Northern Ireland’s attractiveness for foreign direct investment.

Deprivation and alienation
Many studies have shown that poor education and high dropout rates perpetuate a cycle of deprivation and alienation in future generations,,.

FrancieBrady

The interesting thing here is not the article per-se but the discussion about it.


https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/11/15/peter-robinson-was-right-unionism-needs-a-plan-b/

downcow

Deleted User wrote: »

There's no way the English can get away with the British settler-colonial remnant of England's Irish colony that is Northern Ireland for much longer.

What are you on. The majority of the people of NI want to remain part of the UK. and we have been here much longer than the Americans in USA, Australians in Australia, Canadians in canada, etc, etc - maybe you should start by asking those people to give thier countries back to the natives

.....and if that should ever change (which i dion't think it will) then the only possible peaceful solution I can think of is a UK of Ireland ie NI and ROI enter a union much like the UK which allows both equal status based on populations and both maintain their own countries, cultural identity, football teams, etc. and yes of course this will lead to occasional referendums on allowing NI independence - but what democrat wouldn't support that

mattser

Ding Dong Ding Dong..........

marieholmfan

10-15 years

downcow wrote: »

What are you on. The majority of the people of NI want to remain part of the UK. and we have been here much longer than the Americans in USA, Australians in Australia, Canadians in canada, etc, etc - maybe you should start by asking those people to give thier countries back to the natives

.....and if that should ever change (which i dion't think it will) then the only possible peaceful solution I can think of is a UK of Ireland ie NI and ROI enter a union much like the UK which allows both equal status based on populations and both maintain their own countries, cultural identity, football teams, etc. and yes of course this will lead to occasional referendums on allowing NI independence - but what democrat wouldn't support that

Or and just hear me out here.


You'll take what you're given and like it!

blanch152

micosoft wrote: »

Because we won't be the richest country with taking on Northern Ireland? You seem to have the same zero sum attitude that Brexiteers in the UK have. That everybody is out solely for themselves and everything should be seen in a transnactional way.
The goals of the European Union are:

• promote peace, its values and the well-being of its citizens
• offer freedom, security and justice without internal borders
• sustainable development based on balanced economic growth and price stability, a highly competitive market economy with full employment and social progress, and environmental protection
• combat social exclusion and discrimination
• promote scientific and technological progress
• enhance economic, social and territorial cohesion and solidarity among EU countries
• respect its rich cultural and linguistic diversity
• establish an economic and monetary union whose currency is the euro.

Seems to be me that EU is literally setup to do this...

We are net contributors to the EU now, and that won't change with a united Ireland.

Yes, in the 1970s and 1980s we could have counted on help from the EU for a united Ireland, but do you seriously think that countries like Romania and Bulgaria will give us handouts when we come with the begging bowl. They will rightly ask where were we for the last two decades in helping them cope?

micosoft wrote: »

The exact same unification dividend the Germans got. Why would it inevitably lead to an increase in Corporation taxes (I can think of other reasons). But what about access to the highly educated Northern Ireland job market at the same time the UK cuts itself off as a FDI market to the US, Japan and China. We have an incredible opportunity here



The North will never sort itself out on its own. That's the point. We have the example of Germany. It cost two trillion. But it created a second boom there. Reunification is an investment in ourselves.

West German living standards are below trend still, all these years later.

I don't know where you are learning about the highly educated Northern Ireland job market. All of the independent analysis confirms that Northern Ireland has one of the least well-educated job markets in Western Europe.

TimeUp

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

I'm not Irish so I don't know much about the intricacies of this issue, but I've been looking up opinion polls and it doesn't really look like Ireland will ever be reunified, if it depends on people. Shame, I thought it sounded like a cool idea.