How long before Irish reunification?

RobMc59

10-15 years

I wouldn't object to a UI if that's what the people wanted but personally like NI as a part of the UK,I do think more should be done by the British government to encourage new businesses there .

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

What polls are you reading? The last poll held by RTÉ/redC at election had 65% in favour. And the lord Ashcroft poll in NI had it 55% in favour among the unionist community. See attached

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

Also not scientific but the journal had a poll on reunification yesterday and results were

Yes (9418)
No (4708)
No, but maybe within the next 10-20 years (4019)
Not sure (787)

Dytalus

15-20 years

blanch152 wrote: »

We are net contributors to the EU now, and that won't change with a united Ireland.

Yes, in the 1970s and 1980s we could have counted on help from the EU for a united Ireland, but do you seriously think that countries like Romania and Bulgaria will give us handouts when we come with the begging bowl. They will rightly ask where were we for the last two decades in helping them cope?

It's not really up to countries like Bulgaria and Romania - unless there was some additional funding given outside of the usual ESIFunds (possible, but for now purely hypothetical so there's not much point discussing it). Given Northern Ireland's poorer incomes and economy compare to the Republic, post-unification the average contribution per head for Ireland would drop (GNI being the metric used for a portion of contributions, alongside VAT and customs duties). I doubt that alone would be enough for us to outright become net receivers again, but you're often pointing out that unification would result in economic hardship across the island - which could contribute to lower contributions yet again (less money in people's hands, less purchasing, less VAT, less contributed, etc.).

As to whether we'd get additional funding, ESIF funds are dependent on the performance of a country's regions compared to the EU average. Ireland is currently divided into 2 NUTS II regions (from an EU perspective, we only recently developed a 3rd region after the EU had done its paperwork for the budget), one of which is already trailing into being a transition region from previously being a more developed - it hasn't kept up with the rest of the EU in development, basically. Depending on how the regions get redrawn following unification, it's not inconceivable we'd wind up with two "underdeveloped" regions and therefore a larger allocation of ESIF moneys.

And if our economy does get hit hard to the point that our national GNI drops below 90% of the EU average, then we qualify for the Cohesion Fund again (a fund we no longer qualify for during the 2014-20 round). Again, this is rules based - it applies regardless of whether individual Member States feel a country shouldn't get more or not. At least until the laws change.

We've been a net contributor since 2016, and Bulgaria/Romania have been receiving EU cohesion, social, and development funding since 2007 when they joined using the same rules and framework as everyone else. It's not like we were particularly stingy and decided not to help them - we pay into the EU's bucket and the EU decides where the money goes.

facehugger99

Had to laugh a week ago at Varadkars PFO to the so-called 'Ireland's Future' who wanted a Citizens assembly on Irish unification.

Christy Moore, Mary Black and James McClean FFS!

McClean in particular should concentrate on his football and butt out of his adopted Country's politics - he could do with some on-field performance improvements before he tries to lecture anyone.

FrancieBrady

Dytalus wrote: »

It's not really up to countries like Bulgaria and Romania - unless there was some additional funding given outside of the usual ESIFunds (possible, but for now purely hypothetical so there's not much point discussing it). Given Northern Ireland's poorer incomes and economy compare to the Republic, post-unification the average contribution per head for Ireland would drop (GNI being the metric used for a portion of contributions, alongside VAT and customs duties). I doubt that alone would be enough for us to outright become net receivers again, but you're often pointing out that unification would result in economic hardship across the island - which could contribute to lower contributions yet again (less money in people's hands, less purchasing, less VAT, less contributed, etc.).

As to whether we'd get additional funding, ESIF funds are dependent on the performance of a country's regions compared to the EU average. Ireland is currently divided into 2 NUTS II regions (from an EU perspective, we only recently developed a 3rd region after the EU had done its paperwork for the budget), one of which is already trailing into being a transition region from previously being a more developed - it hasn't kept up with the rest of the EU in development, basically. Depending on how the regions get redrawn following unification, it's not inconceivable we'd wind up with two "underdeveloped" regions and therefore a larger allocation of ESIF moneys.

And if our economy does get hit hard to the point that our national GNI drops below 90% of the EU average, then we qualify for the Cohesion Fund again (a fund we no longer qualify for during the 2014-20 round). Again, this is rules based - it applies regardless of whether individual Member States feel a country shouldn't get more or not. At least until the laws change.

We've been a net contributor since 2016, and Bulgaria/Romania have been receiving EU cohesion, social, and development funding since 2007 when they joined using the same rules and framework as everyone else. It's not like we were particularly stingy and decided not to help them - we pay into the EU's bucket and the EU decides where the money goes.

A view that most sensible and calm people would have. What Brexit has done is make it firmly in the EU's interests that Ireland is a stable, unpartioned member.

James Brown

10-15 years

RobMc59 wrote: »

I wouldn't object to a UI if that's what the people wanted but personally like NI as a part of the UK,I do think more should be done by the British government to encourage new businesses there .

As an English person, it's not really your call, but thanks.

The EU will back a UI, especially after the whole brexit tragedy and having Johnson the racist homophobe in power.
Partition is not a natural state for Ireland, it was a convenience to placate a self interested minority. The gerrymandering took away any claim to legitimate democracy after partition.

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

The latest bombshell about there being tariffs between NI and GB will be the nail in the coffin of the union. As is often said here, people vote with their pockets. Among the myriad other issues this one will rise to the top.
It’s hysterical and also depressing looking north to the DUP and their sheep like following now trying to rail against the very thing they campaigned for.
They aren’t leaders. Their self interest and blindness has brought them here, and to see them rabidly trying to blame literally everyone else is on show for all to see.

RobMc59

10-15 years

Matt Barrett wrote: »

As an English person, it's not really your call, but thanks.

The EU will back a UI, especially after the whole brexit tragedy and having Johnson the racist homophobe in power.
Partition is not a natural state for Ireland, it was a convenience to placate a self interested minority. The gerrymandering took away any claim to legitimate democracy after partition.

As a British person I've as much right to an opinion as anyone as NI is part of the UK-on the other hand it's the EU who should keep their nose out of what is essentially a British/Irish problem.
I don't like Johnson but can you provide proof he is a racist homophobe as that's a pretty nasty accusation?

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

RobMc59 wrote: »

As a British person I've as much right to an opinion as anyone as NI is part of the UK-on the other hand it's the EU who should keep their nose out of what is essentially a British/Irish problem.
I don't like Johnson but can you provide proof he is a racist homophobe as that's a pretty nasty accusation?

He called gay people bum boys and said Muslim women looked like letterboxes.

blanch152

Matt Barrett wrote: »

As an English person, it's not really your call, but thanks.

So English people aren't allowed to have a view.

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Johnson the racist homophobe.

But Johnson is the racist?

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Johnson the racist homophobe.

The poster who adopted the name of the Taoiseach's partner to draw attention to the sexual orientation of the Taoiseach is an underhand way is calling someone else a homophobe?

https://www.thejournal.ie/leo-varadkar-matt-barrett-mike-pence-4540708-Mar2019/

Yeah_Right

RobMc59 wrote: »

As a British person I've as much right to an opinion as anyone as NI is part of the UK-on the other hand it's the EU who should keep their nose out of what is essentially a British/Irish problem.

Seeing as how both the UK and Ireland are part of the EU I think the EU has every right to stick their nose in.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

As a British person I've as much right to an opinion as anyone as NI is part of the UK-on the other hand it's the EU who should keep their nose out of what is essentially a British/Irish problem.

Ireland is the EU in this context.

While you are entitled to your opinion on the matter, your government has agreed to be neutral on the matter. So by extension, that is what your 'part' as an Englishman is - effectively 'neutral'.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Ireland is the EU in this context.

While you are entitled to your opinion on the matter, your government has agreed to be neutral on the matter. So by extension, that is what your 'part' as an Englishman is - effectively 'neutral'.

Last I checked we weren't living in Orwell's 1984 where people aren't allowed have opinions. It might be different where you are.

I would also differ on the meaning of the GFA's reference to it being for the people of Ireland to decide. It is of course for the people of Ireland to decide, but any politician in Britain can have a view and express it.

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

Here are the latest poll results from Britain on whether or not there should be a border poll. The answer won’t shock you at all.

Kermit.de.frog

That answer is?

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That answer is?

73% in favour

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Last I checked we weren't living in Orwell's 1984 where people aren't allowed have opinions. It might be different where you are.

I would also differ on the meaning of the GFA's reference to it being for the people of Ireland to decide. It is of course for the people of Ireland to decide, but any politician in Britain can have a view and express it.

franciebrady wrote:

While you are entitled to your opinion on the matter,

Good man blanch...ignore what I said and have a nice little snide swipe. :D Things are getting increasingly desperate for you.

The people of England, Scotland and Wales are disenfranchised when it comes to playing a 'part' in what happens to Ireland. IMO that is not a good thing as I think most would want to put right what was a terrible mistake to begin with.

Kermit.de.frog

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

73% in favour

Linky?

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

Feel for the Scots. They can’t just have the referendum it has to be granted by Westminster.

Nation of equals my hole

facehugger99

As we approach the end of the 20-teens it's interesting to reflect how far away a UI remains.

I can clearly remember at the turn of the millennium, the confident predictions of the bar-stool bores, that unification was a matter of 2 decades away.

However, it's unarguable that the concept of a UI is now even further away than it was 20 years ago. I don't think you'd find any ROI voter, outside of the Shinner echo-chambers, who would argue there's any chance of unification within the next 20 years.

Is it possible that as we approach 2030, the very notion itself will start to seem faintly ridiculous to the vast majority?

I certainly think so.

FrancieBrady

facehugger99 wrote: »

I certainly think so.

Well I am shocked, you would think that! :eek::eek:

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

facehugger99 wrote: »

As we approach the end of the 20-teens it's interesting to reflect how far away a UI remains.

I can clearly remember at the turn of the millennium, the confident predictions of the bar-stool bores, that unification was a matter of 2 decades away.

However, it's unarguable that the concept of a UI is now even further away than it was 20 years ago. I don't think you'd find any ROI voter, outside of the Shinner echo-chambers, who would argue there's any chance of unification within the next 20 years.

Is it possible that as we approach 2030, the very notion itself will start to seem faintly ridiculous to the vast majority?

I certainly think so.

You seem to be inhabiting an echo chamber of one or you haven’t been paying attention the past two years. It’s front and center and likely outcome of Brexit.
If in doubt just look at NI twitter and see the meltdown they’re having about it. They know it’s coming and are already losing their minds up to idiots like Bryson already threatening violence. Laughable little man.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Good man blanch...ignore what I said and have a nice little snide swipe. :D Things are getting increasingly desperate for you.

The people of England, Scotland and Wales are disenfranchised when it comes to playing a 'part' in what happens to Ireland. IMO that is not a good thing as I think most would want to put right what was a terrible mistake to begin with.

They don't have a vote, Francie, that is all.

If the Prime Minister of Great Britain says that s/he wants Northern Ireland to stay as part of the UK, s/he can say that at any time.

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

blanch152 wrote: »

They don't have a vote, Francie, that is all.

If the Prime Minister of Great Britain says that s/he wants Northern Ireland to stay as part of the UK, s/he can say that at any time.

It was clear he meant they can’t get involved or anything if and when a border poll is called.
The furthest the pm would be able to go is we’d like NI to remain in the U.K. but it’s not up to us it’s up to the people of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to decide.

blanch152

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

It was clear he meant they can’t get involved or anything if and when a border poll is called.
The furthest the pm would be able to go is we’d like NI to remain in the U.K. but it’s not up to us it’s up to the people of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to decide.

The Conservative Party are organised in Northern Ireland, aren't they?

They would be able to campaign for a NO vote then.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

They don't have a vote, Francie, that is all.

If the Prime Minister of Great Britain says that s/he wants Northern Ireland to stay as part of the UK, s/he can say that at any time.

Yes...he is 'entitled to an opinion'.
To take 'part' in a referendum would generally mean 'having a vote' to normal people not engaging in verbal gymnastics.

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

blanch152 wrote: »

The Conservative Party are organised in Northern Ireland, aren't they?

They would be able to campaign for a NO vote then.

No the DUP are their wing in NI.
See how long that cosy relationship last over the coming months.

RobMc59

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Ireland is the EU in this context.

While you are entitled to your opinion on the matter, your government has agreed to be neutral on the matter. So by extension, that is what your 'part' as an Englishman is - effectively 'neutral'.

As NI is part of the UK how am I,a UK citizen neutral?And no disrespect francie but in regards to NI affairs Irish people are foreign nationals.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

As NI is part of the UK how am I,a UK citizen neutral?And no disrespect francie but in regards to NI affairs Irish people are foreign nationals.

Because you don't get a vote on it Rob. That is what YOUR government agreed to, it is for the people of the island of Ireland to decide the matter.

All 'opinion' is welcome, but that is all it will be 'effectively'. When the decision is made, you are excluded from it, a member of the UK or not.