How long before Irish reunification?

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

RobMc59 wrote: »

As NI is part of the UK how am I,a UK citizen neutral?And no disrespect francie but in regards to NI affairs Irish people are foreign nationals.

Ehhh 50% of people up there are Irish.
You’re not disregarding the GFA are you rob??

RobMc59

10-15 years

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Ehhh 50% of people up there are Irish.
You’re not disregarding the GFA are you rob??

No,I respect the GFA,I expressed an opinion.Obviously I realise I have no say but I do care about both parts of Ireland

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

No,I respect the GFA,I expressed an opinion.Obviously I realise I have no say but I do care about both parts of Ireland

It is people like this who are trying to suppress 'opinion'.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-48313902

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

RobMc59 wrote: »

No,I respect the GFA,I expressed an opinion.Obviously I realise I have no say but I do care about both parts of Ireland

It’s wrong to say Irish people have no business in NI affairs. One of the biggest complaints in the nationalist community is they’ve been abandoned by the government(s) here for too long. It’s also doubly wrong as half the population in NI is Irish.

And the 2021 census is projected to sow a Catholic / nationalist majority for the first time.

So...

Dravokivich

TimeUp wrote: »

I'm not Irish so I don't know much about the intricacies of this issue, but I've been looking up opinion polls and it doesn't really look like Ireland will ever be reunified, if it depends on people. Shame, I thought it sounded like a cool idea.

I'm Irish and annoyed that the only no option for this thread's poll is "Ulster Says No."

facehugger99

Personally I don't care about anyone's opinion outside of the ROI voters.

The Nordies in particular are irrelevant to the discussion IMO, they'd suckle at anyone's tit if it kept them in cushy public-sector jobs and pensions.

The GFA enshrines the ROI voter with the ultimate power of veto on a UI - thank goodness.

It is only right that those who would be asked to fork out the cash have the power to say no.

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

Dravokivich wrote: »

I'm Irish and annoyed that the only no option for this thread's poll is "Ulster Says No."

I think if we reopened that poll above you would see a very different result.

Dravokivich

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I think if we reopened that poll above you would see a very different result.

It's still active. The inference from the "Ulster Says No" is that it won't happen because they don't want it to. So it expects that everyone who isn't there, should want it to happen at some point in time. I don't.

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

Dravokivich wrote: »

It's still active. The inference from the "Ulster Says No" is that it won't happen because they don't want it to. So it expects that everyone who isn't there, should want it to happen at some point in time. I don't.

Lord Ashcroft poll in NI a few months back had 55% yes from unionists for a UI.

It’s only headed one way. The ostrich behaviors of some among us is telling but they can vote too and have their say. They’re in the minority.

Dravokivich

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Lord Ashcroft poll in NI a few months back had 55% yes from unionists for a UI.

It’s only headed one way. The ostrich behaviors of some among us is telling but they can vote too and have their say. They’re in the minority.

They can vote what ever way they wish. I've never seen a poll represent me, that allowed me to.

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

Dravokivich wrote: »

They can vote what ever way they wish. I've never seen a poll represent me, that allowed me to.

Well polls usually come down to yes/no/don’t know.

So you’re represented no matter what.

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

No the DUP are their wing in NI.
See how long that cosy relationship last over the coming months.

They are not.

The Conservtive Party have a NI branch. In days past the UUP acted as that brach but that has long since changed.

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

RobMc59 wrote: »

As NI is part of the UK how am I,a UK citizen neutral?And no disrespect francie but in regards to NI affairs Irish people are foreign nationals.

I'm sure you're really put out.

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

BonnieSituation wrote: »

They are not.

The Conservtive Party have a NI branch. In days past the UUP acted as that brach but that has long since changed.

Then what’s with the ‘conservative and Unionist’ party branding now?

Tories/conservatives don’t Run in NI do they?

Dravokivich

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Well polls usually come down to yes/no/don’t know.

So you’re represented no matter what.

Haha, even when posting in a thread that has a bias poll.

If the options on other polls are single worded, I'd really like to see the "questions" they are covering. Even the polls you referenced in the last couple of pages removed responses it considered irrelevant. Who's represented there then?

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

Dravokivich wrote: »

Haha, even when posting in a thread that has a bias poll.

If the options on other polls are single worded, I'd really like to see the "questions" they are covering. Even the polls you referenced in the last couple of pages removed responses it considered irrelevant. Who's represented there then?

What would be your preferred option that you would click on?

I agree completely the poll options are poorly phrased by the way

TimeUp

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

What polls are you reading? The last poll held by RTÉ/redC at election had 65% in favour. And the lord Ashcroft poll in NI had it 55% in favour among the unionist community. See attached

The ones quoted on the Wikipedia page on the topic:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland

The last one gives the yes to a United Ireland a slim 46 to 45% majority.

And then under "Public opinion" it even looks as if the option of reunifying Ireland seemed less and less attractive to the surveyed, according to the graph.

facehugger99

TimeUp wrote: »

And then under "Public opinion" it even looks as if the option of reunifying Ireland seemed less and less attractive to the surveyed, according to the graph.

The polls are meaningless for ROI voters as the true cost has never been part of the discussion.

Once the '12 billion or so per annum' enters the public consciousness, support for unification will nosedive. What sane citizen will vote to destroy their children's future and condemn generations of Irish people to reduced SW, pensions, health, education and capital investment?

The fact that the costs have never been discussed, is of course in itself, very instructive. They tell you everything you need to know about the prospects of unification.

Of course it will remain a pipe-dream of the braying barstool brigade and the slimy pan-nationalists of RTE, but the vast majority of Irish citizens have more to concern themselves with.

TimeUp

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

facehugger99 wrote: »

The polls are meaningless for ROI voters as the true cost has never been part of the discussion.

Once the '12 billion or so per annum' enters the public consciousness, support for unification will nosedive. What sane citizen will vote to destroy their children's future and condemn generations of Irish people to reduced SW, pensions, health, education and capital investment?

The fact that the costs have never been discussed, is of course in itself, very instructive. They tell you everything you need to know about the prospects of unification.

Of course it will remain a pipe-dream of the braying barstool brigade and the slimy pan-nationalists of RTE, but the vast majority of Irish citizens have more to concern themselves with.

Thanks for the insight. I really know very little on the topic. Is there only one way to reunify the country, though? I guess the price you are quoting is an estimate, but there must be hundred of ways in which to put a reunification into practice, not all of them necessarily entailing these huge expenses, right?

Plus, I guess there must also be some benefit to a reunification.

facehugger99

TimeUp wrote: »

Thanks for the insight. I really know very little on the topic. Is there only one way to reunify the country, though? I guess the price you are quoting is an estimate, but there must be hundred of ways in which to put a reunification into practice, not all of them necessarily entailing these huge expenses, right?

Plus, I guess there must also be some benefit to a reunification.

So the Shinnerbots will tell you. It boils down to the UK will keep paying for the place or the EU will pay for it.

They're basically variations on the 'magic moneytree' arguments common throughout SF economic policies.

And yes, €12 billion is an estimate, the actual cost could in fact be far higher when additional security costs and loss of FDI investments are factored in.

FrancieBrady

TimeUp wrote: »

Thanks for the insight. I really know very little on the topic. Is there only one way to reunify the country, though? I guess the price you are quoting is an estimate, but there must be hundred of ways in which to put a reunification into practice, not all of them necessarily entailing these huge expenses, right?

Plus, I guess there must also be some benefit to a reunification.

Plenty of people thinking rationally about the future:

https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/committee/dail/32/joint_committee_on_the_implementation_of_the_good_friday_agreement/reports/2017/2017-08-02_brexit-and-the-future-of-ireland-uniting-ireland-and-its-people-in-peace-and-prosperity_en.pdf

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/research/elections-and-referendums/working-group-unification-referendums-island-ireland

The scare mongers will keep harping on about the costs and 'SF' but the documents above and the contributors to the work being done will show you this is not just a SF project.

Personally I believe that 10 to 20 years after unification we will be wondering what all the fuss was about.

Dytalus

15-20 years

facehugger99 wrote: »

So the Shinnerbots will tell you. It boils down to the UK will keep paying for the place or the EU will pay for it.

They're basically variations on the 'magic moneytree' arguments common throughout SF economic policies.

And yes, €12 billion is an estimate, the actual cost could in fact be far higher when additional security costs and loss of FDI investments are factored in.

You really have to stop with the insulting "shinnerbots" garbage. I do not like SF, and have never supported them. Never will either, without a total overhaul of their leadership and certain policies.

Still kind of want a united Ireland though at some point, and think the €12 billion figure is higher than it would wind up being (still expensive, but there are substantial costs NI foots the bill for that it would no longer have to outside of the UK), and if the people voted for one I'd do my best to help make it work even if I personally didn't think we were ready for it.

None of that makes me a SF supporter, and I'd appreciate not being branded aas some kind of of Sinn Féin automaton. There are other Irish parties in favour of a united Ireland.

facehugger99

Dytalus wrote: »

I'd appreciate not being branded aas some kind of of Sinn Féin automaton.

What makes you think you're being branded?

The thread doesn't revolve around you and your feelings. Perhaps you should find something else to get offended about?

blanch152

Dytalus wrote: »

You really have to stop with the insulting "shinnerbots" garbage. I do not like SF, and have never supported them. Never will either, without a total overhaul of their leadership and certain policies.

Still kind of want a united Ireland though at some point, and think the €12 billion figure is higher than it would wind up being (still expensive, but there are substantial costs NI foots the bill for that it would no longer have to outside of the UK), and if the people voted for one I'd do my best to help make it work even if I personally didn't think we were ready for it.

None of that makes me a SF supporter, and I'd appreciate not being branded aas some kind of of Sinn Féin automaton. There are other Irish parties in favour of a united Ireland.

The €12 billion is a significant underestimate, it doesn't include the cost of harmonising social welfare and public service pay. It also doesn't include the cost of rolling out the NHS across the South, neither does it include the costs of harmonising the funding of education. All of these costs are a multiple of €12 billion and will have to be paid.

The conundrum at the heart of a united Ireland is that you have to harmonise upwards i.e. adopt the best system for every public service, otherwise people won't like it (who in the South would vote to reduce disability benefit to NI levels?) and would vote against a united Ireland. However, that means huge increases in taxes, and people won't like that either, so they would vote against a united Ireland. Once you spell out what a united Ireland means in practice rather than the touchy feely wouldn't it be nice approach to date, then you cause a significant number of people to turn against it.

On the other side, as we have seen with Brexit, people (Brexiteers) can be stupid enough to vote for something without realising the consequences. Voting for a united Ireland anytime in the next 40 years would be as stupid as voting for Brexit. The only way it can happen is for the North to sort out its education system, sort out its industrial development and become self-sustaining and move towards convergence before unity is discussed. The problem with that for the united Irelanders is that if Northern Ireland becomes self-sufficient, and the current trend of the emergence of a Northern Irish identity continues, then why would they united with anyone, they are bigger than many existing EU states, why not go independent at that stage?

All of the above taken together explains the big push for unification at the moment. If we wait too long, the chance will be gone as the Northern Irish identity will emerge - this can be seen in the falling vote for Sinn Fein in the North which I fully expect to continue in the forthcoming general election. If we explain it too much, people will also be against it because of the practicalities. Seize the opportunity created by worries about Brexit and we will get there.

The biggest fear of the united Irelanders is a soft Brexit that makes little difference to the North, the scaremongering won't have any effect. Secretly, they are all Boris supporters.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Secretly, they are all Boris supporters.

I will resist once again getting into cherrypicked modelling of the future with some random guy on the internet who is infamous for his partitionist views that align closely with the DUP's stance.

Just to ask this, why if you guys (partitionists and the DUP/UUP/TUV) are so cock sure of all this, has it not been you that is leading the charge for a border poll?

facehugger99

FrancieBrady wrote: »

why if you guys (partitionists and the DUP/UUP/TUV) are so cock sure of all this, has it not been you that is leading the charge for a border poll?

A border poll would be divisive and unhelpful. I can see no benefit to holding one.

Why anyone, other then those actively trying to destabilize NI, would be in favour, is completely beyond me.

FrancieBrady

facehugger99 wrote: »

A border poll would be divisive and unhelpful. I can see no benefit to holding one.

Why anyone, other then those actively trying to destabilize NI, would be in favour, is completely beyond me.

So partitionist/Unionist strategy is to wait until it's obvious to all that a border poll will pass?

Brilliant. That kind of muddled thinking would be par for the course in Unionist strategy anyhow.

*Had to laugh at the 'potentially divisive' comment too Taking NI out of the EU would never be considered 'divisive'...no, not at all.

RobMc59

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So partitionist/Unionist strategy is to wait until it's obvious to all that a border poll will pass?

Brilliant. That kind of muddled thinking would be par for the course in Unionist strategy anyhow.

*Had to laugh at the 'potentially divisive' comment too Taking NI out of the EU would never be considered 'divisive'...no, not at all.

Those in favour of brexit swear blind it will be the making of the UK, taking back control etc...blah blah waffle..
But I can't see it myself-perhaps I need a pair of rose tinted glasses!

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

Those in favour of brexit swear blind it will be the making of the UK, taking back control etc...blah blah waffle..
But I can't see it myself-perhaps I need a pair of rose tinted glasses!

I am very pragmatic about a UI.

Partition is the core reason for divisiveness and conflict for 100 years, and is now the reason that a huge percentage of our people will be affected by Brexit - north and South.

There would be a huge societal benefit in ending it. And that would be a huge investment in our futures.

corks finest

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

Having loved in the 6 counties for approximately 20 years,and having family+ 12 grandkids in Derry ATM,I say not within 99 years, Hong Kong lease will eventually come into play,by then all the protoganists will be dead n buried