How long before Irish reunification?

shootermacg

I see investment from America and Europe booming in Ireland, should a united Ireland ever be a thing. The amount of cash that would flood into the North would be staggering.

It might even go a ways to evening out the Dublin concentration problem.

dd973

20-30 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Northern Unionists have shown (by voting for a Shinner and and SDLP candidate) that they can be pragmatic when their future is threatened. They put their future before the 'union' in other words.

Seismic things are happening.

As you probably know yourself, the decent working class ones and the Bangor area/Golf Club UUP types are more more relaxed, comfortable and open to 'being Irish' than the Unionist demographic is portrayed, whenever vox pops are sought out, especially by the BBC it's always DUP or Jamie Bryson types who are presented as representative of 'the community'.

NIMAN

20-30 years

dd973 wrote: »

As you probably know yourself, the decent working class ones and the Bangor area/Golf Club UUP types are more more relaxed, comfortable and open to 'being Irish' than the Unionist demographic is portrayed, whenever vox pops are sought out, especially by the BBC it's always DUP or Jamie Bryson types who are presented as representative of 'the community'.

Agree.

For all the neanderthals that stand around 11th night bonfires and who would kick the head off a taig, there are probably multiples more who are like Mike Nesbitt and his moderate way of thinking and language.

FrancieBrady

dd973 wrote: »

As you probably know yourself, the decent working class ones and the Bangor area/Golf Club UUP types are more more relaxed, comfortable and open to 'being Irish' than the Unionist demographic is portrayed, whenever vox pops are sought out, especially by the BBC it's always DUP or Jamie Bryson types who are presented as representative of 'the community'.

There are those types all over this island, fulminating and bristling over some issue or other. The 'fabric' doesn't come apart.

One blessing for me in the conflict/war was that there wasn't a sufficient number of them to tip the balance into an all out bloodbath.

A lot of people need to realise this. The majority on both sides are essentially moderates. Different degrees of 'moderate' but moderate all the same, they get on with things even if they initially object vociferously.

The majority on both sides will deal with a UI in a moderate way. There is nothing in history to suggest otherwise.

RobMc59

10-15 years

This article about Bertie Ahern`s opinion of a united Ireland makes interesting reading.
https://www.irishnews.com/news/republicofirelandnews/2019/12/23/news/anyone-believing-irish-unity-will-happen-by-2021-should-go-for-a-trip-in-space-for-a-decade-says-former-taoiseach-bertie--1797547/

mattser

RobMc59 wrote: »

This article about Bertie Ahern`s opinion of a united Ireland makes interesting reading.
https://www.irishnews.com/news/republicofirelandnews/2019/12/23/news/anyone-believing-irish-unity-will-happen-by-2021-should-go-for-a-trip-in-space-for-a-decade-says-former-taoiseach-bertie--1797547/

Wouldn't have too much good to say about him, but he's on the money there.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

This article about Bertie Ahern`s opinion of a united Ireland makes interesting reading.
https://www.irishnews.com/news/republicofirelandnews/2019/12/23/news/anyone-believing-irish-unity-will-happen-by-2021-should-go-for-a-trip-in-space-for-a-decade-says-former-taoiseach-bertie--1797547/

Bertie rubbishes a comment nobody actually made is 'interesting'?

RobMc59

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Bertie rubbishes a comment nobody actually made is 'interesting'?

Even I know nationalist parties made big gains in NI in the recent election and think brexit has increased the possibility of a UI and so wouldn't agree with Bertie's opinion but I still found it interesting.
If the UK's split from the EU is smooth I'd expect the UK to be more cooperative regarding a UI whilst an acrimonious split may result in less chance of financial input by the UK beyond its basic requirements.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

Even I know nationalist parties made big gains in NI in the recent election and think brexit has increased the possibility of a UI and so wouldn't agree with Bertie's opinion but I still found it interesting.
If the UK's split from the EU is smooth I'd expect the UK to be more cooperative regarding a UI whilst an acrimonious split may result in less chance of financial input by the UK beyond its basic requirements.

Which is just another way of saying, 'Lie down Paddy until the British are ready to be democrats', a perverse form of hat doffing. A view oft expressed here by partitionists.

_Kaiser_

joseywhales wrote: »

I agree it is down to our economic prosperity and the ending of the welfare state in the north, all they care about is money.

That's exactly what it's about. This UI idea has only come up to the fore because of Brexit and the idea of losing the EU money.

It has very little to do with a seismic shift in attitudes or a sudden desire to join with the Republic for social or cultural reasons.

On this side then you have those who are blinded by nationalist romanticism or the idea of getting one over on the "old enemy" who are all in favour of supporting the notion.

But, as I keep saying, when the costs (financially, socially and from a security perspective) to the Republic start to materialise, I think that support will start to fall away rapidly. Equally too in the North when they start to realise the significant differences in taxation, cost of living, and the underlying problems we have with housing, healthcare and other areas we can't deal with effectively as it is.

It's a bad idea that ultimately will benefit neither side as it stands.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Which is just another way of saying, 'Lie down Paddy until the British are ready to be democrats', a perverse form of hat doffing. A view oft expressed here by partitionists.

I'd imagine a lot of dissidents would have a similar view of the GFA and SF /IRA's capitulation.

Dyr

RobMc59 wrote: »

This article about Bertie Ahern`s opinion of a united Ireland makes interesting reading.
https://www.irishnews.com/news/republicofirelandnews/2019/12/23/news/anyone-believing-irish-unity-will-happen-by-2021-should-go-for-a-trip-in-space-for-a-decade-says-former-taoiseach-bertie--1797547/

Nothing Bertie has said ever since he was stripped of his retinue of advisors and speech writers has been interesting. Most of it isn't even coherent

RobMc59

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Which is just another way of saying, 'Lie down Paddy until the British are ready to be democrats', a perverse form of hat doffing. A view oft expressed here by partitionists.

Expecting Ireland to pay their fair share towards a UI isn't hat doffing-are you suggesting the UK, US or EU should shoulder all the cost?
If that's the case it suggests you know the voting public in Ireland might not be so keen.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

Expecting Ireland to pay their fair share towards a UI isn't hat doffing-are you suggesting the UK, US or EU should shoulder all the cost?
If that's the case it suggests you know the voting public in Ireland might not be so keen.

Whi said anything about what 'Ireland is expected to pay'? The idea that we should in some way tread carefully with the UK and they might be gracious enough to pay...is what I am objecting to. If the UK is deemed to owe monies/or contribute to fixing the mess, then they should pay them.

FrancieBrady

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

That's exactly what it's about. This UI idea has only come up to the fore because of Brexit and the idea of losing the EU money.

It has very little to do with a seismic shift in attitudes or a sudden desire to join with the Republic for social or cultural reasons.

On this side then you have those who are blinded by nationalist romanticism or the idea of getting one over on the "old enemy" who are all in favour of supporting the notion.

But, as I keep saying, when the costs (financially, socially and from a security perspective) to the Republic start to materialise, I think that support will start to fall away rapidly. Equally too in the North when they start to realise the significant differences in taxation, cost of living, and the underlying problems we have with housing, healthcare and other areas we can't deal with effectively as it is.

It's a bad idea that ultimately will benefit neither side as it stands.

Partition was a disastrous 'idea' as we have all painfully seen.And it threatens us again, from a different angle.

RobMc59

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Whi said anything about what 'Ireland is expected to pay'? The idea that we should in some way tread carefully with the UK and they might be gracious enough to pay...is what I am objecting to. If the UK is deemed to owe monies/or contribute to fixing the mess, then they should pay them.

Who said anything about the UK being gracious enough to pay?
I implied(and its only an opinion)an acrimonious split may result in the UK only willing to meet its obligations-nothing more whilst an amicable agreement could possibly result in a still close relationship between the UK and Ireland.Its called diplomacy francie,much better than a full on 'no quarter given' to the Anglo Saxon huns

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

Who said anything about the UK being gracious enough to pay?
I implied(and its only an opinion)an acrimonious split may result in the UK only willing to meet its obligations-nothing more whilst an amicable agreement could possibly result in a still close relationship between the UK and Ireland.Its called diplomacy francie,much better than a full on 'no quarter given' to the Anglo Saxon huns

That is exactly what you are saying above.
The UK want to leave the EU, nobody is stopping them, what have they to be 'acrimonious' about?

Nobody is cowering - afraid to annoy our betters anymore (i.e. Hat doffing) Rob. If the UK want to huff because we mimimised the harm to ourselves and protected lives, that is for them to deal with.
Meanwhile they have duties and debts just like any other country.

RobMc59

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That is exactly what you are saying above.
The UK want to leave the EU, nobody is stopping them, what have they to be 'acrimonious' about?

Nobody is cowering - afraid to annoy our betters anymore (i.e. Hat doffing) Rob. If the UK want to huff because we mimimised the harm to ourselves and protected lives, that is for them to deal with.
Meanwhile they have duties and debts just like any other country.

It's all in your head francie,once again you create conflict where there is none!
And regarding who pays for a UI,yes,I would expect Britain to do the right thing and meet its obligations,I'd also expect Ireland to pay its fair share too-if that bothers you as you know appetite for a UI might change thats something you must come to terms with.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

It's all in your head francie,once again you create conflict where there is none!
And regarding who pays for a UI,yes,I would expect Britain to do the right thing and meet its obligations,I'd also expect Ireland to pay its fair share too-if that bothers you as you know appetite for a UI might change thats something you must come to terms with.

You speak of 'Ireland' paying as if it was some other entity. Ir won't be. Ireland will do as it does now, endevour to be a cohesive island nation determining its own future.

realitykeeper

Unlike Stephen Donnelly, I do not think unionists should get 30% of Dail representation in a united Ireland, they should get the level of representation as their numbers warrant, no more, no less. I would also be opposed to celebrating the 12th unless that is what the majority want, in which case they can celebrate while I do something useful with my time. Nor would I support Ireland rejoining the Commonwealth unless the majority wanted to. I do feel a certain affinity with unionists in some respects, their bakers should not be expected to bake gay cakes unless they want to and the opposition among conservative unionists to abortion is something I would agree with. In short, I am a democrat but that does not mean to say I would choose to live in a country with an unenlightened majority calling the shots. Stupid electorates always end up suffering the consequences of their foolishness and when they eventually wise up (a process that can take generations in some cases) the Shock doctrine described by Naomi Klein in her somewhat biased interpretation of how capitalism works, then comes into play.

FrancieBrady

realitykeeper wrote: »

Unlike Stephen Donnelly, I do not think unionists should get 30% of Dail representation in a united Ireland, they should get the level of representation as their numbers warrant, no more, no less. I would also be opposed to celebrating the 12th unless that is what the majority want, in which case they can celebrate while I do something useful with my time. Nor would I support Ireland rejoining the Commonwealth unless the majority wanted to. I do feel a certain affinity with unionists in some respects, their bakers should not be expected to bake gay cakes unless they want to and the opposition among conservative unionists to abortion is something I would agree with. In short, I am a democrat but that does not mean to say I would choose to live in a country with an unenlightened majority calling the shots. Stupid electorates always end up suffering the consequences of their foolishness and when they eventually wise up (a process that can take generations in some cases) the Shock doctrine described by Naomi Klein in her somewhat biased interpretation of how capitalism works, then comes into play.

I'm not sure what the problem is around the 12th. There are all sorts of weird and wonderful things celebrated in festivals around the country.
As long as it doesn't infringe any rights and is respectful...what essentially is the problem with the 12th?
Let them at it.

realitykeeper

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I'm not sure what the problem is around the 12th. There are all sorts of weird and wonderful things celebrated in festivals around the country.
As long as it doesn't infringe any rights and is respectful...what essentially is the problem with the 12th?
Let them at it.

I know but I hope Stephen Donnelly does not think I will be marching with them.

mattser

realitykeeper wrote: »

I know but I hope Stephen Donnelly does not think I will be marching with them.

If you haven't got an invitation I wouldn't get too upset if I were you.

Stovepipe

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

A United Ireland won't happen until Queen Elizabeth expires, as she regards herself as the protector of the Union and I suspect her heir thinks the same, so British politicians, who might be inclined to seperate the Six Counties from the UK, at the earliest opportunity, have to keep a weather eye on Buckingham Palace. They know full well, that if they gave the nod to the Six Counties to slide off, then they'd be under massive pressure to give Scotland the nod for independence, which is even less likely, given the debate about North Sea oil / gas rights and the location of a home for the nuclear deterrent.

FrancieBrady

Sir Jeffrey Donaldson wrote: »

If we look at the cancellation of the RIC commemoration, it was a retrograde action to cancel it. If we are serious about reconciliation then we need to accept our past. The Irish Government has shown contempt for the reconciliation process by giving in to republican pressure.

We note your concerns here Jeffery and ask: but if we commemorate killers of our people as a state, will you commemorate the IRA? Fairs fair like.

Get back to me with the dress code for the event.

James Brown

10-15 years

Sir Jeffrey Donaldson wrote: »

...

If we look at the cancellation of the RIC commemoration, it was a retrograde action to cancel it. If we are serious about reconciliation then we need to accept our past. The Irish Government has shown contempt for the reconciliation process by giving in to republican pressure.

Reconciliation is a two way process and all sides need to row in with it.

If you are discussing a future united Ireland, which I do not believe will happen, you must also discuss the benefits of the Union both for Northern Ireland and indeed for our neighbours in the Republic.

I would expect any reasonable person of any persuasion to be aghast at the idea of a people commemorating outfits such as the Black and Tans.
It is beyond cynical and dishonest in the highest order to try equate commemorating them with reconciliation in any way.
It was yet another FG effort at re-writing history.
They can be remembered by those that wish to of course and acknowledged by the state as having been.
The Germans aren't expected to commemorate the Stasi, nor the British the Nazis.
Politicians from every quarter agree this was a bad idea.

James Brown

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We note your concerns here Jeffery and ask: but if we commemorate killers of our people as a state, will you commemorate the IRA? Fairs fair like.

Get back to me with the dress code for the event.

The next 12th will consist of banners for King James and Bobby Sands, pausing to remove their caps and bow out of respect at each Catholic Church they pass

FrancieBrady

Matt Barrett wrote: »

The next 12th will consist of banners for King James and Bobby Sands, pausing to remove their caps and bow out of respect at each Catholic Church they pass

Jeffrey must be busy poring over the deal. They won't want to **** it up again.

Beasty

30-40 years

Guys - it's not really Sir Jeffrey - it's our regular re-reg muppet who tries to stir up tensions regarding the North

blanch152

https://www.rte.ie/news/ulster/2020/0109/1105256-stormont-talks/

https://static.rasset.ie/documents/news/2020/01/new-decade-new-approach.pdf


Government deal is published.

"DUP leader Arlene Foster has said she believes the proposals provide a basis upon which the Stormont Assembly can be re-established "in a fair and balanced way"."

"Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald said her party's Ard Chomhairle will meet tomorrow to "fully assess" the proposals.

Ms McDonald said Sinn Féin are "studying the text and will give it careful consideration".

Interesting that they have an Ulster Scots Language Act as well as an Irish Language Act. More or less what I predicted months ago.

I wonder will Sinn Fein be able to wear it. More or less parity of esteem for Ulster Scots. Looking at the proposals, it is clear that the whole language thing is unworkable in the long-term, with simultaneous translation making it a laughing stock.